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Hello, everyone. Welcome to the World Crypto Network, where we are streaming live
from the Stanford campus.

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There were some presentations, we're here at the event,

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but one of the most interesting people that I really wanted to interview here is, of
course, Paul Sztorc,

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and I'm joined by Jimmy Song. Jimmy, say hi, and then we'll have Paul introduce
himself. Hi, everybody. Good to be here.

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Hi, everyone. I'm Paul. What do you want me to introduce?

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Well, who you are, what you're known for, and where are you currently working? Try
to keep it short. We've got a lot of questions for you.

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Okay, so I got into Bitcoin a while ago. I have a background in economics and
statistics, and I work on a cool

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prediction markets project that was originally called Truthcoin, and is now called
Bitcoin Hivemind.

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But I worked, my progress on that eclipsed the practice on the progress on
sidechains,

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so I've been working on my sidechains project, Drivechain, for the last

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I don't know, like 18 months or so, and it's...

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So we basically finished that

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very soon, and we'll be getting

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vips out for that, and that's a very interesting project that...

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And Paul, so you work at Block. Yeah, Block supports my work on Drivechain, yes.

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I don't know if you know this, Tone, but the CEO of Block is actually Jeff Garzik.

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I'm not sure you are aware, were you aware of that? I don't know.

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Yeah, I wonder.

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We were aware of that.

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How many people... Tone, I don't know if you know this, but Jeff Garzik is one of
the people behind

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the SegWit2x project. Really?

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We're slightly aware. We're slightly aware. All right, and this is why we did want
to talk to you today, especially...

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And the SegWit2x project is part of the New York agreement.

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Yeah, well, we'll get to that. We'll get to that. Okay, so quick thing on Block, all
right?

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Who founded Block, where's the money coming from, and how many people are involved?

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Okay, well, I mean, I don't really... So I'm just like a... I don't own any Block,
like, equity or anything like that.

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I'm not a co-founder, so I don't actually know that, but I...

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Obviously, Matt Roszak is another co-founder.

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Oh, he's a...

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Sorry, we're in the wilderness.

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I'm like, why are you hitting Jimmy?

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Trying to get a mosquito, yeah.

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There's a giant spider coming down the pass.

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It's near us.

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In a web of lies.

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It's... So, yeah, so I know Tally Capital, and I know... What's the one, Fimbushi?

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But yeah, I don't really know, like, you shouldn't really ask me because I don't
even know.

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I just know that I was working with people.

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So who else is working at Block, like, besides yourself, that our audience might
know?

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Besides, obviously, Jeff Garzik, yourself, anyone else there programming, anyone
else working there on cool projects that our people would have heard of in the
crypto space?

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I don't know what people would know.

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I do know...

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Yeah, Douglas Rourke.

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Yeah, he used to work at Block.

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Oh, he doesn't work there anymore?

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Not anymore.

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You guys are toughing it out. I can do it, too.

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Jimmy here in short sleeves.

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Alright.

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Andre Schilbart works on BitcoinJ.

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He's also kind of sponsored by Block.

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Block does a lot of... Matt Roszak likes a lot of things.

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Just likes everything.

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I don't know if these people are like...

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It's kind of like...

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It's a little bit like a...

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It's kind of like an R&D sponsorship

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for some of these projects, I think.

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But I don't know who...

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I don't know if there's a lot of people who are, like, really famous.

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Or whatever that means.

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I mean, I've heard of most of these people.

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Andreas is...

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He's been on the dev list quite a bit.

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Yeah.

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Alright.

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So let's...

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Let's jump right into the New York agreement.

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Okay.

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What exactly is it?

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And what are we expecting?

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My number one question is,

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what are we expecting in 10 days?

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And we're going to talk about that.

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And it's great that Jimmy is here

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because maybe he can help our audience

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what to do with their Bitcoin.

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Are you asking me, like, what...

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You want me to give, like, an overview of the...

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An overview of, like,

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what's the...

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Why the 2X agreement?

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The 2X agreement is

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going to fork or upgrade

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Bitcoin.

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And this is the problem, right?

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I don't know what to call this thing

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that's going to happen in 10 days.

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So help me out.

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Well, I don't know what to call it either.

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I mean, the thing is, I don't know...

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But you work at Block.

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How do you not know what to call it?

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You guys are doing it.

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This is what drives me insane.

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Well, I don't think there's really these connections.

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They just work on their own thing.

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And it's similar where Peter Todd has this

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stipend from Chaincode Labs.

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And I think everything's really not as connected

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as people think it is.

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People mostly just...

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I mean, especially people who have been in Bitcoin for a long time.

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They can just, you know...

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I don't want to speak for anyone else,

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but I would imagine a large number of these people

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could just quit whenever they want.

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But that's because it's a pretty decentralized organization.

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I don't really think of Block and this 2X agreement

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as a decentralized movement.

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I really see it as one developer.

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Who else besides Jeff Garzik

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is programming the...

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Again, fork or upgrade.

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Whatever you guys want to call it.

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I can work with that definition.

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To me, it's a fork.

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To me, it's a hostile fork.

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So who besides Jeff Garzik is involved

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in coding the initiative?

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Well, I don't know.

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See, that's the thing.

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I don't know a lot about...

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I don't think that Jeff's involvement

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is related to what he does at Block.

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I think they're almost completely unrelated.

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I think that's clear because he's

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doing an ICO or something.

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Do you know anything about that?

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Block is doing an ICO at Metronome,

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which I also don't know a lot about,

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but I know a little about.

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No, I really don't want to talk about

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any other shitcoins.

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What I do want to talk about is

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what do I do with my Bitcoin?

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I have tens of thousands of people

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listening to me

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what do I do on November 15th?

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And my answer to them at the moment

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is I don't know.

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Which is bad.

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No, I got to do something

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because if I lose

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any of my Bitcoin

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because of this,

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it's going to be bad.

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Yeah, but you get the Bitcoin on both sides

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if there's a split, which probably there will be.

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Fine, then there's going to be replay protection.

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You don't need

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replay protection, you just need your private key.

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There are ways to protect yourself

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from replay without

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replay protection built in.

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For a layman person like myself

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who hasn't coded in 10 years?

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Yeah, so the wallets will have to do something.

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They will have to do something?

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Yeah, in order for you to be replay protected.

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Okay, and what happens when your wallet

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doesn't do that?

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Well, I think it's actually possible

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for all replay protection to be defeated.

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If you want to do that, you can just make it

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so that the new chain is aware

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of everything that happens on the old chain

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and just automatically everything that happens

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on the old chain is valid no matter what.

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And then at least

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on that side, the replay protection

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is whatever it is, it's always defeated.

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So it depends on who wants

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to do what.

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Someone creates an altcoin where it just

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constantly pulls in valid Bitcoin transactions

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and replays them.

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You've never heard about it and then you hear about it

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and someone calls you up on the phone and says,

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oh, can you send me

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whatever, you know,

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FooCoin3, because I paid you last week

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in Bitcoin, but now apparently

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there's some altcoin where you also got

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my money on that and it's kind of like

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you're thinking of

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an attack on the

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whole hardware.

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So where

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are you, so which

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wallet are you Bitcoining

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on November 15th?

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I have Electrum called

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Storage. I love Electrum.

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Electrum is great.

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I use Armoury

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because I know.

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Armoury is great.

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Armoury is very big.

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I think of Electrum, I think of like a lightsaber.

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You know, it's only like 40 megabytes

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without the,

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you know, if you do it offline and stuff,

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Armoury is a lot more,

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but you can do it.

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So then which

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phone wallet would you recommend

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for people to be using?

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So this, the problem is that

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SPV is

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not great. Okay, so if it's

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a problem, why is this should happen?

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The reason

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why they're not doing replay protection is

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because they don't want to cut off the rest of the ecosystem.

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Right? Like as soon

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as you add replay protection, every wallet,

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every exchange has to upgrade

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as well. And that's

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why Bitcoin Cash had no

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wallets. But if you don't

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do that, then they potentially

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can still be compatible with you.

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That's kind of the point. So if I'm

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using a wallet, like, look,

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I've been a big fan of AirBits.

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Everyone knows that. I have no idea what's

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going on with that wallet.

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They changed their name. They even changed

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their name, right? And I still don't have

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SegWit addresses in that wallet.

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Right? And I've been recommending that

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wallet to

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thousands, if not tens of thousands of people.

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What happens

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with my transactions

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when I send them on this wallet?

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It's like

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if you receive money, then you want

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replay, right? Because then you'll get twice as much money.

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You'll get twice as much Bitcoin.

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So

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it's only when you send money that you're worried about.

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You're worried they're going to take your...

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No, I'm actually

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taking this

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very, very seriously.

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Because I am not joking.

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I am expecting a

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serious Bitcoin correction. Mostly

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because of this.

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I agree. We have these futures markets

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and they're not perfect. And I wrote on my blog

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how I would do it better.

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Six different assets.

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I saw that.

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So I have constructed criticism.

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But I think

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now we see that

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someone right now can buy

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for 15 cents on the dollar

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a coin that ends up being a 2X

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coin. And so

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the mystery is if the 2X coin

265
00:10:22,880 --> 00:10:24,880
is going to be worth

266
00:10:24,880 --> 00:10:26,880
7,000 whatever dollars

267
00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:28,880
today, why is that thing

268
00:10:28,880 --> 00:10:30,880
so much cheaper?

269
00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:32,880
Why is that trading for 15 cents on the dollar?

270
00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:34,880
So I think you're right that

271
00:10:34,880 --> 00:10:36,880
that coin would have to be worth

272
00:10:36,880 --> 00:10:38,880
a lot less. It would be worth

273
00:10:38,880 --> 00:10:40,880
closer to Bitcoin cash.

274
00:10:40,880 --> 00:10:42,880
I'm still confused.

275
00:10:42,880 --> 00:10:44,880
Hold on a second. I'm still confused

276
00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:46,880
how there's going to be two different coins

277
00:10:46,880 --> 00:10:48,880
without replay protection.

278
00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:50,880
I still have not gotten a layman's answer

279
00:10:50,880 --> 00:10:52,880
to that question.

280
00:10:52,880 --> 00:10:54,880
You have two different coins because they're two different

281
00:10:54,880 --> 00:10:56,880
chains. It just turns out that

282
00:10:56,880 --> 00:10:58,880
a transaction on one chain

283
00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:00,880
may also be valid on the other.

284
00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:02,880
What does that mean, may also?

285
00:11:02,880 --> 00:11:04,880
Because not all transactions like

286
00:11:04,880 --> 00:11:06,880
Coinbase transactions, for example, are valid

287
00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:08,880
on the other chain. So that ends up

288
00:11:08,880 --> 00:11:10,880
being kind of a...

289
00:11:10,880 --> 00:11:12,880
Why is that in both directions

290
00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:14,880
you're saying?

291
00:11:14,880 --> 00:11:16,880
So Coinbase to Coinbase or Coinbase

292
00:11:16,880 --> 00:11:18,880
to anyone?

293
00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:20,880
At a minimum.

294
00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:22,880
At a minimum, Coinbase transactions are not

295
00:11:22,880 --> 00:11:24,880
valid. Like Coinbase from A is

296
00:11:24,880 --> 00:11:26,880
not valid on B.

297
00:11:26,880 --> 00:11:28,880
And Coinbase from B is not

298
00:11:28,880 --> 00:11:30,880
valid on A.

299
00:11:30,880 --> 00:11:32,880
So he's saying...

300
00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:34,880
Imagine a...

301
00:11:34,880 --> 00:11:36,880
That's something similar to what I was saying.

302
00:11:36,880 --> 00:11:38,880
He's saying imagine where all

303
00:11:38,880 --> 00:11:40,880
the transactions are replayed

304
00:11:40,880 --> 00:11:42,880
in all directions. You still have some

305
00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:44,880
things that will be different. One would be like

306
00:11:44,880 --> 00:11:46,880
the hash of the block itself

307
00:11:46,880 --> 00:11:48,880
which would not... Once the blockchain

308
00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:50,880
splits, then one hash of...

309
00:11:50,880 --> 00:11:52,880
One header's hash will be different and then

310
00:11:52,880 --> 00:11:54,880
the pre-block

311
00:11:54,880 --> 00:11:56,880
or whatever we call it...

312
00:11:56,880 --> 00:11:58,880
Those will all be different.

313
00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:00,880
So they will not be identical in every way.

314
00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:02,880
I'm trying to bring this to the average person.

315
00:12:02,880 --> 00:12:04,880
Let's say

316
00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:06,880
on November 19th

317
00:12:06,880 --> 00:12:08,880
I want to

318
00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:10,880
send you...

319
00:12:12,880 --> 00:12:14,880
Well, I want to receive Bitcoin.

320
00:12:14,880 --> 00:12:16,880
The regular Bitcoin.

321
00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:18,880
Then that would be on me.

322
00:12:18,880 --> 00:12:20,880
Right. So what do you

323
00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:22,880
have to do to make sure I actually

324
00:12:22,880 --> 00:12:24,880
get Bitcoin... And not the other one.

325
00:12:24,880 --> 00:12:26,880
Right. And not the other one.

326
00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:28,880
What's probably going to be

327
00:12:28,880 --> 00:12:30,880
the safest way is

328
00:12:30,880 --> 00:12:32,880
go to an exchange and withdraw

329
00:12:32,880 --> 00:12:34,880
$1 worth of

330
00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:36,880
normal Bitcoin. You would have to do that.

331
00:12:36,880 --> 00:12:38,880
I would have to do that and I have to include that

332
00:12:38,880 --> 00:12:40,880
as part of the transaction that I'm sending

333
00:12:40,880 --> 00:12:42,880
to you. That doesn't make sense

334
00:12:42,880 --> 00:12:44,880
to me. Why is that?

335
00:12:44,880 --> 00:12:46,880
Because that's something that the other chain can't do.

336
00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:48,880
Because he's got one

337
00:12:48,880 --> 00:12:50,880
because he's got to have valid inputs

338
00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:52,880
and valid outputs or whatever.

339
00:12:52,880 --> 00:12:54,880
He's sending you money...

340
00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:56,880
So if you try to replay

341
00:12:56,880 --> 00:12:58,880
that transaction, it will try to select

342
00:12:58,880 --> 00:13:00,880
the one Bitcoin that he

343
00:13:00,880 --> 00:13:02,880
or whatever you said, $1 worth of Bitcoin.

344
00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:04,880
The newer chain will

345
00:13:04,880 --> 00:13:06,880
try to do that, but then that

346
00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:08,880
transaction won't exist.

347
00:13:08,880 --> 00:13:10,880
It's not going to work.

348
00:13:10,880 --> 00:13:12,880
So if you have no money on an exchange,

349
00:13:12,880 --> 00:13:14,880
now what?

350
00:13:14,880 --> 00:13:16,880
Just buy $1 worth from Coinbase.

351
00:13:16,880 --> 00:13:18,880
No, that's a problem.

352
00:13:18,880 --> 00:13:20,880
Okay.

353
00:13:20,880 --> 00:13:22,880
To anyone that

354
00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:24,880
believes in the peer-to-peer

355
00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:26,880
digital currency that Satoshi created,

356
00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:28,880
you should not be using Bitcoin, in my opinion.

357
00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:30,880
I have never in my life used

358
00:13:30,880 --> 00:13:32,880
anything that connected to my real-life

359
00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:34,880
identity. So I don't have the option

360
00:13:34,880 --> 00:13:36,880
of grabbing $1 worth

361
00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:38,880
of Bitcoin from an identifiable place.

362
00:13:38,880 --> 00:13:40,880
All right. So the other way is,

363
00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:42,880
hopefully, you can go to a faucet.

364
00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:44,880
There will probably be some

365
00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:46,880
that hands out

366
00:13:46,880 --> 00:13:48,880
Bitcoins that are what you would call

367
00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:50,880
tainted or unreplayable on the other chain.

368
00:13:50,880 --> 00:13:52,880
And then you utilize that

369
00:13:52,880 --> 00:13:54,880
to taint all your coins, and then

370
00:13:54,880 --> 00:13:56,880
you can send to your heart's content.

371
00:13:56,880 --> 00:13:58,880
Eric Lombroso,

372
00:13:58,880 --> 00:14:00,880
should we plug...

373
00:14:00,880 --> 00:14:02,880
He's starting something for this.

374
00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:04,880
Make it easier.

375
00:14:04,880 --> 00:14:06,880
I'm going to get Eric Lombroso on the show

376
00:14:06,880 --> 00:14:08,880
done before this happens.

377
00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:10,880
You have to clarify exactly what you're worried about.

378
00:14:10,880 --> 00:14:12,880
Because if you're receiving money, then you want the replay

379
00:14:12,880 --> 00:14:14,880
or you don't care because you're just getting money

380
00:14:14,880 --> 00:14:16,880
on random things.

381
00:14:16,880 --> 00:14:18,880
You could be worried on his behalf that he's accidentally

382
00:14:18,880 --> 00:14:20,880
sending more than he intends.

383
00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:22,880
You ask him for 4 Bitcoin,

384
00:14:22,880 --> 00:14:24,880
he sends you 4 Bitcoin. But then he accidentally

385
00:14:24,880 --> 00:14:26,880
sends you 4...

386
00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:28,880
2x point.

387
00:14:28,880 --> 00:14:30,880
I want to...

388
00:14:30,880 --> 00:14:32,880
So the chain split will

389
00:14:32,880 --> 00:14:34,880
probably give you a faucet where you can

390
00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:36,880
take one...

391
00:14:36,880 --> 00:14:38,880
So if I put all of my Bitcoin

392
00:14:38,880 --> 00:14:40,880
into a single address

393
00:14:40,880 --> 00:14:42,880
and then stick

394
00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:44,880
$1 worth of Bitcoin

395
00:14:44,880 --> 00:14:46,880
after the fork into it,

396
00:14:46,880 --> 00:14:48,880
all of those coins have just become unreplayable?

397
00:14:48,880 --> 00:14:50,880
So you need the

398
00:14:50,880 --> 00:14:52,880
other $1

399
00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:54,880
or one Satoshi, it doesn't matter,

400
00:14:54,880 --> 00:14:56,880
of value that's unreplayable,

401
00:14:56,880 --> 00:14:58,880
if you combine it with

402
00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:00,880
that one output that

403
00:15:00,880 --> 00:15:02,880
you combined it to, then yes,

404
00:15:02,880 --> 00:15:04,880
it would be unreplayable.

405
00:15:04,880 --> 00:15:06,880
So again,

406
00:15:06,880 --> 00:15:08,880
I'm looking for solutions for our followers

407
00:15:08,880 --> 00:15:10,880
how they can send Bitcoin

408
00:15:10,880 --> 00:15:12,880
and not get replayed.

409
00:15:12,880 --> 00:15:14,880
Or worse, the worst case scenario

410
00:15:14,880 --> 00:15:16,880
is that they

411
00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:18,880
sell their...

412
00:15:18,880 --> 00:15:20,880
The unwanted ones.

413
00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:22,880
And then realize you just lost

414
00:15:22,880 --> 00:15:24,880
all of your coins. And honestly,

415
00:15:24,880 --> 00:15:26,880
I want to see this...

416
00:15:26,880 --> 00:15:28,880
I mean, in a way,

417
00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:30,880
I want to make sure this doesn't happen to me

418
00:15:30,880 --> 00:15:32,880
and I really don't... I want to make sure this

419
00:15:32,880 --> 00:15:34,880
doesn't happen to my followers, but I want

420
00:15:34,880 --> 00:15:36,880
it to happen to everyone else.

421
00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:38,880
No, and I'm not joking,

422
00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:40,880
because I want the people that are involved in this

423
00:15:40,880 --> 00:15:42,880
shit to really feel

424
00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:44,880
what it's like when someone that

425
00:15:44,880 --> 00:15:46,880
just lost a few million dollars

426
00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:48,880
is mad at them.

427
00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:50,880
So here's what I would say.

428
00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:52,880
I'll definitely write an article

429
00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:54,880
and maybe make even

430
00:15:54,880 --> 00:15:56,880
a video tutorial on how to do this

431
00:15:56,880 --> 00:15:58,880
after the fork, but until

432
00:15:58,880 --> 00:16:00,880
after the fork, we won't know where

433
00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:02,880
exactly the faucets

434
00:16:02,880 --> 00:16:04,880
will be and how

435
00:16:04,880 --> 00:16:06,880
Eric Lombroso's chain split stuff will happen.

436
00:16:06,880 --> 00:16:08,880
My recommendation is just

437
00:16:08,880 --> 00:16:10,880
if you're worried about this,

438
00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:12,880
don't transact for a few

439
00:16:12,880 --> 00:16:14,880
days afterwards until these

440
00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:16,880
tools become available.

441
00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:18,880
I don't see that as a solution

442
00:16:18,880 --> 00:16:20,880
to Bitcoin

443
00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:22,880
being this thing that we all

444
00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:24,880
expect it to be.

445
00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:26,880
I think you're right, though, but I think that something like

446
00:16:26,880 --> 00:16:28,880
I think

447
00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:30,880
Jimmy Song is right that

448
00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:32,880
there kind of is no solution

449
00:16:32,880 --> 00:16:34,880
until we really know

450
00:16:34,880 --> 00:16:36,880
more, because you don't know what kind of

451
00:16:36,880 --> 00:16:38,880
replay protection

452
00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:40,880
that, intentional or otherwise,

453
00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:42,880
and I mean by unintentional,

454
00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:44,880
I refer to this Coinbase

455
00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:46,880
transaction mixing stuff or this

456
00:16:46,880 --> 00:16:48,880
faucet mixing stuff, you don't know

457
00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:50,880
what the optimal replay plan is

458
00:16:50,880 --> 00:16:52,880
right now.

459
00:16:52,880 --> 00:16:54,880
Until we try it, yeah.

460
00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:56,880
There might be exchanges even that

461
00:16:56,880 --> 00:16:58,880
might be giving out some of these faucet coins

462
00:16:58,880 --> 00:17:00,880
just to help people

463
00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:02,880
because that's something that they're not going to

464
00:17:02,880 --> 00:17:04,880
want to deal with.

465
00:17:04,880 --> 00:17:06,880
Again, I'm going back to the layman's terms

466
00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:08,880
because this is important to me. So if I put

467
00:17:08,880 --> 00:17:10,880
all of my Bitcoin into one address

468
00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:12,880
which is

469
00:17:12,880 --> 00:17:14,880
a horrible thing

470
00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:16,880
to do for OPSEC purposes,

471
00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:18,880
but this is what Jeff Garzik is forcing

472
00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:20,880
us to do, sounds like

473
00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:22,880
to me. Put all of your Bitcoin

474
00:17:22,880 --> 00:17:24,880
into one private key, don't

475
00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:26,880
screw that up.

476
00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:28,880
After that, you find a

477
00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:30,880
faucet that you trust, I would go

478
00:17:30,880 --> 00:17:32,880
with Eric Lombroso and I'll make

479
00:17:32,880 --> 00:17:34,880
sure I'll get him on video for this.

480
00:17:34,880 --> 00:17:36,880
You stick,

481
00:17:36,880 --> 00:17:38,880
somehow, get

482
00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:40,880
a Satoshi worth of Bitcoin

483
00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:42,880
into that

484
00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:44,880
same private key

485
00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:46,880
along with your X number of

486
00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:48,880
Bitcoins. Wait, so tell me, I think

487
00:17:48,880 --> 00:17:50,880
maybe a concept that might be

488
00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:52,880
helpful is sort of like tainting your

489
00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:54,880
coins. So once

490
00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:56,880
one of

491
00:17:56,880 --> 00:17:58,880
your coins, you don't

492
00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:00,880
actually have coins, right? Like you have UTXOs

493
00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:02,880
or whatever.

494
00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:04,880
Not developers.

495
00:18:04,880 --> 00:18:06,880
We don't have developers guys.

496
00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:08,880
Like Mark Bills or something like that.

497
00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:10,880
I just want to say something though, which is that you can make it

498
00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:12,880
really, really simple by just totally ignoring

499
00:18:12,880 --> 00:18:14,880
No, you can't.

500
00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:16,880
Because all you have to do, what you're describing

501
00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:18,880
is only possible if you want to cash out

502
00:18:18,880 --> 00:18:20,880
and sell the unwanted coins.

503
00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:22,880
No, no, no. This is where I take

504
00:18:22,880 --> 00:18:24,880
offense.

505
00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:26,880
Because right now,

506
00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:28,880
my life

507
00:18:28,880 --> 00:18:30,880
is fighting shitcoiners.

508
00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:32,880
And if your solution is don't

509
00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:34,880
do anything, I am supporting

510
00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:36,880
shitcoins because they're transactional.

511
00:18:36,880 --> 00:18:38,880
You can say I don't support this.

512
00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:40,880
Don't do anything is not a solution.

513
00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:42,880
Doing something immediately

514
00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:44,880
that allows you to spend

515
00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:46,880
without worry is a solution.

516
00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:48,880
And I want to bring that solution to every one of my

517
00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:50,880
followers so they can do something

518
00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:52,880
immediately and not have to worry

519
00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:54,880
about losing their bitcoin.

520
00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:56,880
Okay, but here's the thing.

521
00:18:56,880 --> 00:18:58,880
If, hypothetically,

522
00:19:00,880 --> 00:19:02,880
if you just were to ignore

523
00:19:02,880 --> 00:19:04,880
say the unwanted coins, the 2x

524
00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:06,880
coin, I'm just guessing here for you that

525
00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:08,880
you want to ignore the

526
00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:10,880
2x coin, you can just

527
00:19:10,880 --> 00:19:12,880
transact in the other coin and it will not affect you.

528
00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:14,880
You will never be affected

529
00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:16,880
by a replay.

530
00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:18,880
Maybe a theoretical solution, not a

531
00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:20,880
real one. As much as I

532
00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:22,880
try to ignore

533
00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:24,880
the trash garbage, it's

534
00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:26,880
all over my life right now.

535
00:19:26,880 --> 00:19:28,880
As much as I try to

536
00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:30,880
ignore it,

537
00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:32,880
it's not ignorable.

538
00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:34,880
And I kind of like the idea of making 10%

539
00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:36,880
on all my bitcoin.

540
00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:38,880
I would love the ability to make

541
00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:40,880
another 10 or 20%

542
00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:42,880
on all my bitcoin without the possibility

543
00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:44,880
of total loss of my bitcoin.

544
00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:46,880
Which is why I have you on here.

545
00:19:46,880 --> 00:19:48,880
We're getting this thing, it's winding a lot.

546
00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:50,880
Because you're saying on one hand you want it really simple

547
00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:52,880
for people who aren't developers and you're just worried

548
00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:54,880
about them losing money.

549
00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:56,880
The simplest thing is that they just

550
00:19:56,880 --> 00:19:58,880
don't install 2x, don't

551
00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:00,880
look at it, and just only use the

552
00:20:00,880 --> 00:20:02,880
software you're already using. And you will be.

553
00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:04,880
And then, I don't know,

554
00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:06,880
the exchanges might do something weird.

555
00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:08,880
Don't put your money on an exchange for like two weeks.

556
00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:10,880
Let me tell you the reality of the situation.

557
00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:12,880
The reality of the situation is people are greedy.

558
00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:14,880
During our epic

559
00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:16,880
August 1st, 8-hour

560
00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:18,880
live stream, when Bcash

561
00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:20,880
was forking, I pleaded

562
00:20:20,880 --> 00:20:22,880
with people not to jump

563
00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:24,880
in and convert

564
00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:26,880
and sell their Bcash immediately

565
00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:28,880
for the chance of losing your

566
00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:30,880
bitcoin. You know what happened during that

567
00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:32,880
day? Somebody accidentally

568
00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:34,880
sent me all of his bitcoin.

569
00:20:34,880 --> 00:20:36,880
By accident.

570
00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:38,880
His bitcoin or his Bcash? His bitcoin.

571
00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:40,880
Trying to split his bitcoin.

572
00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:42,880
He accidentally sent it to me.

573
00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:44,880
The guy was screaming.

574
00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:46,880
Because there was replay protection in Bcash.

575
00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:48,880
So it didn't really matter.

576
00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:50,880
No. By being an idiot.

577
00:20:50,880 --> 00:20:52,880
I mean, I don't know. We can't protect

578
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:54,880
people from that.

579
00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:56,880
If you've got a way of protecting people from their own idiocy.

580
00:20:56,880 --> 00:20:58,880
We'll have a Nobel Prize.

581
00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:00,880
The best thing I can do is

582
00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:02,880
provide them the maximum amount of

583
00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:04,880
information for them not to screw up.

584
00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:06,880
That's what I'm trying to do. I'm just saying you don't have to do anything.

585
00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:08,880
If you want to play

586
00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:10,880
at very low effort

587
00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:12,880
and you're just worried about the new one

588
00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:14,880
then you could just say

589
00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:16,880
I surrender all this new

590
00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:18,880
one. I'm just not going to think about it.

591
00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:20,880
When I send money it'll probably be replayed.

592
00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:22,880
And if you're greedy

593
00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:24,880
you would put it on Bitfinex right now.

594
00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:26,880
Sell the other part and just get

595
00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:28,880
your bitcoin.

596
00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:30,880
Bitfinex is a bad example.

597
00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:32,880
They're not taking regular people

598
00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:34,880
as clients anymore.

599
00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:36,880
Some other place.

600
00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:38,880
I still want to get back to the idea.

601
00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:40,880
I have all of my bitcoin. I put

602
00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:42,880
all my bitcoin in one address.

603
00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:44,880
I then go to a

604
00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:46,880
faucet. Again, plug to Eric Lombroso.

605
00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:48,880
You need to get one pure.

606
00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:50,880
Grab a Satoshi.

607
00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:52,880
One tainted coin.

608
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:54,880
Tainted of what do you mean by...

609
00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:56,880
It's entangled with one chain only.

610
00:21:56,880 --> 00:21:58,880
Yeah, so it's unreplayable.

611
00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:00,880
A coin that's unreplayable.

612
00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:02,880
A coin that's unreplayable and I add it

613
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:04,880
to my stash of bitcoin.

614
00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:06,880
And spend all of it at once.

615
00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:08,880
And then move all of that

616
00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:10,880
move all of that bitcoin

617
00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:12,880
to another address.

618
00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:14,880
And then you're good forever.

619
00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:16,880
And then the private key, before I move it

620
00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:18,880
once I move it, I use that private key

621
00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:20,880
with no bitcoin on it

622
00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:22,880
to split my Bcash out.

623
00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:24,880
What's my Bcash?

624
00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:26,880
The 2x coin is now in comfort to that key.

625
00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:28,880
So after I

626
00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:30,880
taint them

627
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:32,880
after I taint them to make them unreplayable

628
00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:34,880
I can still pull out all of my

629
00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:36,880
2x coins.

630
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:38,880
After you've split them, you've essentially split them

631
00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:40,880
by spending it to another address with a

632
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:42,880
unreplayable coin.

633
00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:46,880
I'm trying to be

634
00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:48,880
I'm trying to be

635
00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:50,880
as stupid as possible so you guys can explain it to everyone

636
00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:52,880
including myself.

637
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:54,880
Once I put all of my bitcoin

638
00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:56,880
into one address

639
00:22:56,880 --> 00:22:58,880
I taint it with

640
00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:00,880
an unreplayable satoshi

641
00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:02,880
I move that coin

642
00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:04,880
that private key still contains

643
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:06,880
all of the B2X.

644
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:08,880
So then I can take them to another

645
00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:10,880
wallet that's a B2X wallet

646
00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:12,880
What do I do? How do I sell that?

647
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:14,880
That we don't know yet.

648
00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:16,880
You need to find a wallet

649
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:18,880
that supports 2x

650
00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:20,880
and you need an exchange that supports 2x

651
00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:22,880
but that's no different from any other.

652
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:24,880
And we don't know which ones will support it

653
00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:26,880
because those wallet developers

654
00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:28,880
haven't really done their stuff yet.

655
00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:30,880
So that you won't know until the quarter.

656
00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:32,880
It's possible that no one will support it.

657
00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:34,880
I don't think so but it's possible.

658
00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:36,880
I doubt it.

659
00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:38,880
Somebody's going to support it.

660
00:23:38,880 --> 00:23:40,880
Coinbase will support 2x.

661
00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:42,880
So I now understand what to do

662
00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:44,880
in order to make sure

663
00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:46,880
that I don't lose any bitcoin

664
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:48,880
trying to sell the B2X.

665
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:50,880
Hopefully our followers understood this.

666
00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:52,880
I also wrote an article

667
00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:54,880
on this and

668
00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:56,880
there are going to be solutions

669
00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:58,880
and people are careful with their money

670
00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:00,880
in general so they will

671
00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:02,880
have video tutorials and stuff

672
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:04,880
step by step

673
00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:06,880
somebody's going to make a wallet

674
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:08,880
and then they'll say here's step one

675
00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:10,880
here's the screen that you need to click

676
00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:12,880
It might even be like a plugin

677
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:14,880
for Bitcoin Core

678
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:16,880
or something

679
00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:18,880
Speaking of Bitcoin Core

680
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:20,880
Speaking of Bitcoin Core

681
00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:22,880
I heard that the version 15

682
00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:24,880
was not going to

683
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:26,880
block

684
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:28,880
the B2X stuff.

685
00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:30,880
What does that mean and what's the latest on that?

686
00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:32,880
Should I move all

687
00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:34,880
of my bitcoin to a core node?

688
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:36,880
All that's

689
00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:38,880
doing is if you have a full node

690
00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:40,880
it would

691
00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:42,880
pre-ban

692
00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:44,880
all the 2x nodes from

693
00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:46,880
connecting to it.

694
00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:48,880
That's really all it was.

695
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:50,880
Is that working?

696
00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:52,880
There's something like a cat and mouse

697
00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:54,880
game where a lot of the 2x people

698
00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:56,880
were like well okay then we'll just change

699
00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:58,880
this other thing so you can't

700
00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:00,556
detect that it's a 2x.

701
00:25:00,556 --> 00:25:06,556
Who cares? It'll resolve itself and you might be isolated. Just reconnect and you're
fine.

702
00:25:07,556 --> 00:25:12,556
That's what they call cheap talk in the game theory department. All the stuff that
says it's a 2x node will ban.

703
00:25:13,556 --> 00:25:22,556
All the node stuff is not really auditable. It is a cat and mouse that will just
never end and it will just waste everyone's time.

704
00:25:23,556 --> 00:25:28,556
What's the end goal here? What is the point of the B2X part?

705
00:25:29,556 --> 00:25:32,556
I don't know what the hell to call this thing 2x. Just call it 2x.

706
00:25:33,556 --> 00:25:35,556
What is the point? What is their end goal here?

707
00:25:36,556 --> 00:25:44,556
You know what it is, John. It's spelled out very clearly in the Medium article. They
wanted to get SegWit activated.

708
00:25:45,556 --> 00:25:48,556
I know that part, but the bigger blocks.

709
00:25:50,556 --> 00:25:58,556
They wanted to increase the non-witness block size to 2 megabytes. That's what they
thought was best.

710
00:25:59,556 --> 00:26:04,556
A compromise is always better than immediate violence, but it's never going to be
the best.

711
00:26:05,556 --> 00:26:10,556
Somewhere there is the right answer and it's not a compromise between different
things. It's just the right answer.

712
00:26:11,556 --> 00:26:16,556
We kind of don't know what it is, but the futures markets say that 2x will not be
worth as much as 1x.

713
00:26:17,556 --> 00:26:25,556
That's something that's interesting to me. I think I'm in favor of building even
better futures markets so that we can be even more persuasive to everyone.

714
00:26:26,556 --> 00:26:31,556
You could perhaps show miners how much money they would gain or lose by doing a
certain thing.

715
00:26:32,556 --> 00:26:37,556
I think that would be the most persuasive evidence of all because how can you be in
a corporation like Bitmain,

716
00:26:37,556 --> 00:26:41,556
for example, just to name one completely at random.

717
00:26:42,556 --> 00:26:49,556
How can you be in a corporation and then take an action that will very clearly
result in revenue loss?

718
00:26:50,556 --> 00:26:55,556
The futures markets that I designed would allow you to take lots of different things
into account.

719
00:26:56,556 --> 00:27:04,556
It's not that much more complicated. You would be able to see if the 1x network died
and the 2x network was the only thing that existed,

720
00:27:04,556 --> 00:27:12,556
what would be the price or the reverse. If the 2x network was called off and we
never did it, what would the 1x network be worth?

721
00:27:13,556 --> 00:27:15,556
What's more persuasive than that?

722
00:27:16,556 --> 00:27:19,556
Paul, we got a question from an audience.

723
00:27:19,556 --> 00:27:30,556
It says, ask Paul Sztorc what he thinks about Todd's Discrete Oracle stuff
presentation.

724
00:27:31,556 --> 00:27:34,556
That was actually one of the few presentations that I was able to fully follow.

725
00:27:35,556 --> 00:27:38,556
Discrete lock contracts? Really? That's the one?

726
00:27:39,556 --> 00:27:44,556
I think this other guy is also named Paul. I think he got me on Twitter and I quoted
him and replied.

727
00:27:44,556 --> 00:27:52,556
I did a whole talk. You can find the video. I just tweeted about it very recently,
like today, like two hours ago or something.

728
00:27:53,556 --> 00:27:56,556
But you can also find it if you go to bitcoinhivemind.com.

729
00:27:57,556 --> 00:28:01,556
If you go to presentations, you can find my presentation, which is called the Oracle
Problems.

730
00:28:02,556 --> 00:28:07,556
I did a whole QCon talk about presentations, but basically one big concern of mine
about his thing,

731
00:28:08,556 --> 00:28:11,556
he starts the presentation off by saying that multi-sig isn't very good.

732
00:28:12,556 --> 00:28:16,556
And then his presentation is like on a marginal improvement to multi-sig,

733
00:28:17,556 --> 00:28:23,556
which is basically like the Oracle doesn't know who they're multi-sigging for or if
anyone is even using their thing.

734
00:28:24,556 --> 00:28:26,556
Oh, and they can't say different answers.

735
00:28:27,556 --> 00:28:29,556
And they can't say different answers to different people, which is nice.

736
00:28:30,556 --> 00:28:39,556
But yeah, I worry that the improvement is not very significant to the point where I
don't think it would significantly advance.

737
00:28:40,556 --> 00:28:41,556
Yeah, you can still collude.

738
00:28:42,556 --> 00:28:48,556
One thing is that the person may exit scam, which is a big problem with anything
related to reputation.

739
00:28:49,556 --> 00:28:54,556
The person may acquire a good reputation and then they may decide that the best way
to use it is to,

740
00:28:54,556 --> 00:28:56,556
that the Oracle could themselves become a counterparty.

741
00:28:57,556 --> 00:28:58,556
So trading with all these different people.

742
00:28:59,556 --> 00:29:04,556
And then now that they've, they're not only the Oracle, but they're also Bob, the
Alice and Bob thing.

743
00:29:05,556 --> 00:29:07,556
And now they are screwed and they just withdraw all the money.

744
00:29:08,556 --> 00:29:12,556
And the exit scam is a big issue in all Oracle-based everything.

745
00:29:13,556 --> 00:29:18,556
In fact, you want to take steps to allow people to kind of get rid of a good, sell a
good reputation and get rid of it.

746
00:29:19,556 --> 00:29:20,556
Otherwise you'll have this.

747
00:29:21,556 --> 00:29:24,556
It'll be like the fiat exchanges really, where something like Mt. Gox.

748
00:29:25,556 --> 00:29:28,556
Exactly. Mt. Gox will acquire a reputation for being the best and the biggest.

749
00:29:29,556 --> 00:29:36,556
And then more people will want to go there and then it explodes inevitably because
you've got possible deniability and stuff to cash out the reputation in the worst
way.

750
00:29:37,556 --> 00:29:41,556
And then it goes to another exchange is the biggest and then it gets targeted by
whatever.

751
00:29:42,556 --> 00:29:44,556
You're waiting for a Coinbase exit scam. Is that what it is?

752
00:29:44,556 --> 00:29:48,556
Yeah. Well, you have this, it's kind of like an asteroid orbiting the sun.

753
00:29:49,556 --> 00:29:53,556
That's how I sometimes explain where you have this like weird equilibrium of just
stuff is the biggest.

754
00:29:54,556 --> 00:29:55,556
And then you have a period of peace and tranquility for a while.

755
00:29:56,556 --> 00:29:58,556
And then the Roman empire collapses and it's horrible again.

756
00:29:59,556 --> 00:30:05,556
Then it cycles. And so you don't, you want something that's like undoes the exit
scam problem, which doesn't have.

757
00:30:06,556 --> 00:30:12,556
And I think, so I think it kind of regresses to the multi-sig case, which he himself
points out in the early, why it's not the multi-sig case.

758
00:30:12,556 --> 00:30:17,556
So, but I think it's, I think that in particular, his thing is very interesting and
they're probably used for something.

759
00:30:18,556 --> 00:30:23,556
Just because a lot of the other stuff is very cool about it being off chain
lightning network, fully net lightning network, like integrated.

760
00:30:24,556 --> 00:30:27,556
And also you, you can't sign in more, you can't give different answers.

761
00:30:28,556 --> 00:30:29,556
I really like that aspect of it.

762
00:30:30,556 --> 00:30:34,556
That aspect of it might be used for like something totally different than just like
committing to some random numbers.

763
00:30:35,556 --> 00:30:38,556
Let's jump, let's jump back into that 2x discussion.

764
00:30:39,556 --> 00:30:41,556
What are you expecting from the mining side?

765
00:30:42,556 --> 00:30:47,556
What is your outlook for mining percentage, mining one coin versus another?

766
00:30:48,556 --> 00:30:52,556
And what does this do to the other hard fork we already had, which is the cash?

767
00:30:53,556 --> 00:30:55,556
Okay, that's a good, those are good questions.

768
00:30:56,556 --> 00:30:57,556
So yeah, these are just my guesses.

769
00:30:58,556 --> 00:30:59,556
I don't really like know any of this at all.

770
00:31:00,556 --> 00:31:01,556
So just ignore it all.

771
00:31:02,556 --> 00:31:03,556
But let's think about this.

772
00:31:04,556 --> 00:31:07,556
We had 83%, or at least it said it did.

773
00:31:08,556 --> 00:31:11,556
And there's no kind of reason to believe that it's not, it wasn't correct at the
time.

774
00:31:12,556 --> 00:31:13,556
Just signaling, just signaling.

775
00:31:14,556 --> 00:31:15,556
That's so cool.

776
00:31:16,556 --> 00:31:25,556
And some people have said that they will let, like Slush always does the right
thing, which is to say that it's not my job to decide, which is the correct answer.

777
00:31:26,556 --> 00:31:28,556
So we have some kind of vague.

778
00:31:29,556 --> 00:31:33,556
So I'm not sure, someone estimated it was like 70 something percent, 71 or 72 or
something.

779
00:31:34,556 --> 00:31:41,556
But still like saying, and again, this is all cheap talk, as I mentioned before,
which is like, you don't know exactly what it's worth.

780
00:31:42,556 --> 00:31:45,556
But we did have, we have those kind of numbers.

781
00:31:46,556 --> 00:31:52,556
And my guess is that it would just be too embarrassing if they bailed like very
quickly.

782
00:31:52,556 --> 00:31:53,556
Very quickly.

783
00:31:53,556 --> 00:31:54,556
So even in the case where they bail, right?

784
00:31:55,556 --> 00:31:57,556
So let's say like we kind of do the extremes maybe.

785
00:31:58,556 --> 00:32:02,556
And even in the case where they all bail on, and they never, none of the miners even
wanted the two megabyte.

786
00:32:03,556 --> 00:32:07,556
And they only wanted SegWit, but there was just a giant pretext that was required
for political reasons.

787
00:32:08,556 --> 00:32:13,556
So even if you take that extreme, probably there'll be like one or two days where
70% mines the 2X coin.

788
00:32:14,556 --> 00:32:15,556
That's kind of my thinking on that.

789
00:32:16,556 --> 00:32:20,556
The other extreme is that all the miners actually did want, they are pissed off.

790
00:32:20,556 --> 00:32:22,556
And they do want to send a message.

791
00:32:23,556 --> 00:32:24,556
And it's worth it for them.

792
00:32:25,556 --> 00:32:29,556
And actually even more of the, you saw a lot of people pretend not to like, even
Bitfury is angry or something.

793
00:32:30,556 --> 00:32:32,556
But they just didn't want to say that they were angry.

794
00:32:33,556 --> 00:32:34,556
Angry at which part?

795
00:32:35,556 --> 00:32:36,556
At the dev leadership.

796
00:32:37,556 --> 00:32:38,556
At the dev leadership. Okay, fine.

797
00:32:39,556 --> 00:32:41,556
Let's go deeper on that.

798
00:32:42,556 --> 00:32:43,556
Let's go deeper on that.

799
00:32:44,556 --> 00:32:47,556
I have an article coming out.

800
00:32:47,556 --> 00:32:51,556
I did some analysis on this.

801
00:32:52,556 --> 00:32:53,556
It will be published on Monday.

802
00:32:54,556 --> 00:33:00,556
But the forking block, it turns out, is about 865 blocks into a difficulty period.

803
00:33:01,556 --> 00:33:07,556
So there's exactly 1,152 blocks that need to be mined before the difficulty adjusts
on both sides.

804
00:33:08,556 --> 00:33:09,556
That's actually pretty fortunate because it kind of almost cuts it in half.

805
00:33:10,556 --> 00:33:12,556
Yeah, that's about the most fortunate that you can be.

806
00:33:12,556 --> 00:33:18,556
If they were smart, they should have done it 2x if they wanted to be strategic about
killing the old chain, which they should have.

807
00:33:19,556 --> 00:33:22,556
But it turns out it's about halfway through.

808
00:33:23,556 --> 00:33:24,556
Okay, so that's good to know.

809
00:33:25,556 --> 00:33:34,556
And it turns out that, well, so I did some calculations based on sort of like the
last few months of signaling based on blocks.

810
00:33:35,556 --> 00:33:38,556
The ones that said NYA, it's been fluctuating between 85 and 95.

811
00:33:39,556 --> 00:33:40,556
So I just cut it off at 90.

812
00:33:40,556 --> 00:33:42,556
And then I took the futures market.

813
00:33:43,556 --> 00:33:48,556
It's about 0.17, 2x coin per 1x coin, like if you do the split and everything else.

814
00:33:49,556 --> 00:33:52,556
And I did some calculations on how much opportunity cost there is.

815
00:33:53,556 --> 00:33:59,556
And it turns out that over the first 1,152 blocks, it turns out to be about $60
million.

816
00:34:00,556 --> 00:34:02,556
And it goes up until about February 3rd.

817
00:34:03,556 --> 00:34:10,556
But after that, the next five weeks, it ends up costing about $600 million in
opportunity costs.

818
00:34:11,556 --> 00:34:13,556
If those ratios stay the same.

819
00:34:14,556 --> 00:34:15,556
What are your ratios though?

820
00:34:16,556 --> 00:34:17,556
What's your starting ratio?

821
00:34:18,556 --> 00:34:19,556
70-30? What's your ratio?

822
00:34:20,556 --> 00:34:21,556
90-10.

823
00:34:22,556 --> 00:34:23,556
90 going to 2x?

824
00:34:24,556 --> 00:34:28,556
Yeah, and this is just purely based on objective data, just like what they're
signaling in the blocks.

825
00:34:28,556 --> 00:34:29,556
90 going to 2x.

826
00:34:30,556 --> 00:34:32,556
So you're saying mining the old chain is going to become useless.

827
00:34:33,556 --> 00:34:34,556
No, you're saying how much does it cost?

828
00:34:35,556 --> 00:34:43,556
I think if I'm understanding you correctly, you're saying this is how much does the
miner's bottom line get hit by adhering to this 2x?

829
00:34:44,556 --> 00:34:47,556
So they're losing $60 million over a period of about four months.

830
00:34:48,556 --> 00:34:51,556
And then the next month, they lose something like $600 million collectively.

831
00:34:52,556 --> 00:35:02,556
And then it gets crazy because the amount of money that you start losing because 1x
is so much easier to mine.

832
00:35:03,556 --> 00:35:12,556
And if they're sticking with 2x, it just becomes economically completely irrational
without a state actor or something subsidizing that side.

833
00:35:13,556 --> 00:35:17,556
So yeah, my feeling is that's not a sustainable – something has to get –

834
00:35:17,556 --> 00:35:18,556
It will change, right?

835
00:35:19,556 --> 00:35:30,556
The scenario that obviously the 2x side would aim for would be that the 1x side
loses hope and everyone rushes into 2x and the 2x coin is worth $7,000.

836
00:35:31,556 --> 00:35:33,556
So one of two things has to change, right?

837
00:35:34,556 --> 00:35:41,556
You have mining power split, 90-10 is what I'm assuming, and you have price split,
which is like 0.17 to 1 or whatever.

838
00:35:42,556 --> 00:35:43,556
One of those three things have to change.

839
00:35:44,556 --> 00:35:48,556
Either price has to follow hash power or hash power has to follow price.

840
00:35:49,556 --> 00:35:50,556
One or the other has to happen.

841
00:35:52,556 --> 00:35:53,556
And we don't know which.

842
00:35:54,556 --> 00:35:57,556
The third thing is that some group arbitrarily decides to lose money.

843
00:35:58,556 --> 00:36:00,556
So the other option there –

844
00:36:01,556 --> 00:36:03,556
We do know those people exist from the decash experiment.

845
00:36:04,556 --> 00:36:08,556
So it's possible that you have people that are pumping in money or pumping in hash
power.

846
00:36:09,556 --> 00:36:10,556
One or the other has to happen, right?

847
00:36:11,556 --> 00:36:13,556
It could be external or internal.

848
00:36:14,556 --> 00:36:15,556
It's easier to pump in hash power.

849
00:36:16,556 --> 00:36:17,556
You have to pump in a lot.

850
00:36:18,556 --> 00:36:28,556
If you want to keep a fake price and meanwhile all these bloodthirsty traders,
battle-hardened traders are like no and you want to keep that going for days on end,
24-7, you need a lot of money.

851
00:36:29,556 --> 00:36:30,556
And meanwhile there's a lot of despair.

852
00:36:31,556 --> 00:36:32,556
I want to get back to –

853
00:36:33,556 --> 00:36:34,556
The hash rate would be easier.

854
00:36:35,556 --> 00:36:36,556
I want to get back to what you said.

855
00:36:36,556 --> 00:36:43,556
If miners are angry at the core and they want to get at them, they're going to jump
to the 2X side to teach core a lesson.

856
00:36:44,556 --> 00:36:45,556
I want to explore that.

857
00:36:46,556 --> 00:36:47,556
I want to go deeper with that.

858
00:36:48,556 --> 00:36:51,556
Let's take that extreme to its ultimate conclusion.

859
00:36:53,556 --> 00:36:58,556
80-90% of hash power goes to the 2X side of the chain.

860
00:36:59,556 --> 00:37:07,556
And it stays there making the original Bitcoin kind of immovable for a long period
of time.

861
00:37:16,556 --> 00:37:17,556
And that actually stays there.

862
00:37:18,556 --> 00:37:21,556
And all of our current core developers, they say screw it.

863
00:37:22,556 --> 00:37:24,556
I'll go work for Goldman Sachs and make more money than I do now.

864
00:37:25,556 --> 00:37:32,556
And all we have is Jeff Garzik and maybe Andrew Stone and Peter R coding on the new
chain.

865
00:37:33,556 --> 00:37:36,556
What do you think will happen to the confidence of the price of Bitcoin in your
opinion?

866
00:37:37,556 --> 00:37:38,556
I don't know about any of that.

867
00:37:39,556 --> 00:37:40,556
I don't know about untangling all that.

868
00:37:41,556 --> 00:37:44,556
The futures markets already give us a lot of information about that.

869
00:37:45,556 --> 00:37:46,556
They try to aggregate everything.

870
00:37:47,556 --> 00:37:50,556
So everything you said and everything else that anyone else thinks.

871
00:37:51,556 --> 00:37:52,556
Which is why I'm not expecting any of it.

872
00:37:52,556 --> 00:37:54,556
Yeah, I don't think that's going to be the case.

873
00:37:55,556 --> 00:37:58,556
But the way you really teach a lesson is to attack.

874
00:37:59,556 --> 00:38:02,556
And that's the one possibility I think that we have to think about.

875
00:38:03,556 --> 00:38:04,556
Well, that's the thing.

876
00:38:05,556 --> 00:38:07,556
See my view on it is none of these attackers have actually learned a lesson.

877
00:38:08,556 --> 00:38:16,556
Which is why I want to provide very clear directions to all of our followers here on
the World Crypto Network and on my channel.

878
00:38:17,556 --> 00:38:26,556
How do you paint the coins to make sure your Bitcoin is not replayable when you sell
off your 2X.

879
00:38:27,556 --> 00:38:33,556
And I really hope some big whales lose like 10 million dollars.

880
00:38:34,556 --> 00:38:40,556
But still have like another 10 or 20 million dollars to seriously go after the
people that are causing this for them.

881
00:38:41,556 --> 00:38:44,556
I don't know if you can solve it with money per se.

882
00:38:44,556 --> 00:38:46,556
But I think the market will work itself out.

883
00:38:47,556 --> 00:38:50,556
And the people that learn the lesson will be the people that bet wrong.

884
00:38:51,556 --> 00:38:52,556
That's just how it is.

885
00:38:53,556 --> 00:38:58,556
Certainly you could make the argument that this whole thing is just embarrassing for
Bitcoin.

886
00:38:59,556 --> 00:39:01,556
And it just makes everything look unorganized and crazy.

887
00:39:02,556 --> 00:39:06,556
And that's almost the worst thing you can say about it really.

888
00:39:07,556 --> 00:39:13,556
Stuff about replay protection is I think really overblown.

889
00:39:14,556 --> 00:39:18,556
There's a lot of angels against the tide of evil.

890
00:39:19,556 --> 00:39:20,556
It's very sanctimonious.

891
00:39:21,556 --> 00:39:22,556
I'm not sure how to describe it.

892
00:39:23,556 --> 00:39:28,556
If something doesn't have replay protection, it's the worst thing ever.

893
00:39:29,556 --> 00:39:30,556
And those people are just the worst.

894
00:39:31,556 --> 00:39:34,556
It only does affect you if you want to cash out on the second thing.

895
00:39:34,556 --> 00:39:36,556
So by giving it, it's kind of a concession.

896
00:39:37,556 --> 00:39:41,556
Letting people freely cash out of your altcoin thing.

897
00:39:42,556 --> 00:39:44,556
I think we need to immunize against it anyway.

898
00:39:45,556 --> 00:39:46,556
And I think Bitcoin will be better for it.

899
00:39:47,556 --> 00:39:48,556
I want wallets to have all these features.

900
00:39:49,556 --> 00:39:50,556
I love that.

901
00:39:51,556 --> 00:39:52,556
And I think it will protect us going forward.

902
00:39:53,556 --> 00:39:55,556
Because 2018, we're going to see a lot more hard forks.

903
00:39:56,556 --> 00:39:57,556
Well, I'm done with my questions.

904
00:39:58,556 --> 00:39:59,556
I don't know if you have anything else, Jimmy.

905
00:40:00,556 --> 00:40:01,556
Let's go eat, man.

906
00:40:02,556 --> 00:40:03,556
I'm hungry.

907
00:40:04,556 --> 00:40:08,556
We will bring you more details on how to deal with this fork.

908
00:40:09,556 --> 00:40:10,556
That's coming in about 10 days.

909
00:40:11,556 --> 00:40:12,556
I'll keep trying to ask the right questions.

910
00:40:13,556 --> 00:40:15,556
Because I want to make sure I hold on to my Bitcoin as well.

911
00:40:16,556 --> 00:40:17,556
During this mess.

912
00:40:18,556 --> 00:40:19,556
And we'll talk about price in another video.

913
00:40:20,556 --> 00:40:21,556
All right, guys.

914
00:40:22,556 --> 00:40:23,556
And Jimmy and I will do a recap of this event.

915
00:40:24,556 --> 00:40:25,556
How it will be tomorrow.

916
00:40:26,556 --> 00:40:27,556
We'll see. We'll figure it out.

917
00:40:28,556 --> 00:40:29,556
Talk to you all later.

918
00:40:30,556 --> 00:40:31,556
Thank you for watching.

919
00:40:32,556 --> 00:40:33,556
We closed off with about 600 viewers.

920
00:40:34,556 --> 00:40:35,556
Thank you.
