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This weekend Scaling Bitcoin will take place in Hong Kong.

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You are leaving tonight, as I understood.

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But the reason I invited you to have a talk was because of Truthcoin, which is now
being called Bitcoin Hivemind.

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It interests me and also a lot of people whom I know.

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And I was actually also very surprised to see that a lot of subjects you mentioned
on the Truthcoin site really answered some questions for me.

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For example, there is a lot of talk about Ethereum for the past two years.

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All the time I'm wondering, I have a lot of questions about it and I read some.

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I won't necessarily say answers, but at least your opinion to it.

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That was very interesting.

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And also your view on Augur and such.

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So, welcome Paul.

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Thanks for having me.

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I'm glad that you enjoy the site, that's why it's there.

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I see it as two sides of the same coin, or it's one big project of understanding,

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which is creating a new Bitcoin project, but also explaining and comparing the other
Bitcoin projects.

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It's really kind of the same thing.

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It's all about what is possible with blockchains and what isn't possible.

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What's sort of a dead end and what is kind of an important problem to solve.

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I think it's all part of the same thing.

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That was kind of why it was all in the same name.

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But now that it's gotten a little bit more serious, as you mentioned, we've renamed
to Bitcoin Hivemind.

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We haven't really exactly kind of promoted it yet, but that will start very soon, I
think,

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because we have some newer stuff that's kind of finished.

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Especially because now it's like people I don't even know are going to the GitHub
and submitting issues and closing issues.

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So now it's sort of like leaking out, and so it's kind of partly a function of
futility,

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but it's also like it's kind of gotten to the point where people would be able to
contribute

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without causing more problems than they would solve.

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So it's a very exciting time for the project.

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Because when I heard about Truthcoin about a year ago or something,

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I remember that I thought, when I heard the name, I just thought it's just another
altcoin or whatever.

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And when I read a little bit more, I thought, oh, it's some kind of academic project
or whatever.

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And with the last time, I see you pop up more often in different corners of the web
space, to say it like that.

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To be honest, I did not read the whole website.

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It's pretty hard stuff.

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I tried to read, but it's very, I mean, for example, the stuff about proof of stake
and proof of work is, for me at least,

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very difficult to digest food, to say it like that.

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But very interesting.

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So, Yannis, as far as I know, you had a question.

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Yeah, that's probably for later.

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But if we start talking about Truthcoin, how it works, a bit more of an advanced
question, I guess.

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But yeah, maybe that's the best.

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Could you try to explain prediction markets and Truthcoin?

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So, yeah.

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So prediction markets are really, they're just the same as any other market, really.

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That's the kind of interesting thing about them, is that we use markets every day to
determine the price of very boring things.

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And the price determines who can buy what in the marketplace, and the market
determines who gets what.

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So it determines allocation.

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And it determines production as well, because if the price goes up, people think,
wow, I should really get into the oil business,

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because the price of oil is going through the roof, and I should research new oil
technology,

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and I should quit my job and work on an oil refinery or whatever.

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So markets do all these things very, very well.

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They transform subjective preferences and values into objective data that people can
use to make plans and to make allocations of resources.

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So it's a really simple first point, which is just that markets work.

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They work very well.

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Even when they don't work very well, they work the best, usually.

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And so markets work great.

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And so why not use the market structure to accomplish something that's a little
different, but it's really mostly the same.

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So the difference is that here there's no clear use for the actual predictions
themselves.

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So you'd just be buying and selling predictions the same way you'd buy and sell oil
or gold or anything, Dow Jones Industrial Average.

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And so you're buying and selling these predictions, and they're worth an amount of
money if they're true, and they're worth nothing if they're false.

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And so you can infer from the price how likely these events are.

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And so you can see into the future with great reliability and have a huge track
record of being extraordinarily accurate predictors of events like elections

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and who will win certain academy awards and when certain people will be apprehended
and all this other stuff that you'd kind of think would be very mystifying.

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These things can predict months in advance with extreme accuracy.

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In fact, if you compare them to normal people in any kind of apples to apples way,

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if you compare them to a statistical model or expert panel or individual pundits or
something, they always win by a lot.

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So they do a very good job of settling issues where people have like a big
conversation with a lot of people and there's no kind of clear consensus.

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The market just gives you a consensus.

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It says this is what the price is, and so this is the consensus.

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And so they do that.

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So this is just reusing the same marketing that works for everything else for
specifically to get the price and not with the price just appearing as a byproduct.

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So for example, if you would have a prediction that Hillary wins the elections and
people can put their money on it and the price is high,

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what does that actually mean?

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Is the price high when everybody expects that Hillary will win or the opposite?

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Not everybody.

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So say you've got a piece of paper and it will magically become worth one dollar or
one euro or whatever you like.

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But let's say one dollar.

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The piece of paper will magically become a dollar if Hillary Clinton is elected.

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And then there's a different piece of paper that will magically become a dollar if
and only if she's not elected US president in 2016 next year.

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So what would it say to you if people are using the Hillary Clinton paper, Hillary
Clinton does win.

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They're using those as if they were dollars.

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If you went to the store you could buy a three dollar item for three of these pieces
of paper.

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But no one cared what happened.

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Everyone was just throwing out the pieces of paper that were for Hillary Clinton not
winning.

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They're just throwing those in the trash.

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I mean a reasonable person would infer, not without needing to know really anything
else.

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They could infer that wow, whatever someone might say that they think.

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It's pretty clear that almost no one cares about what happens to these not Hillary
Clinton pieces of paper.

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But people do care.

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They're treating this one, this other kind as if they're worth a whole dollar.

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So you can infer the likelihood of the event, in this case the likelihood of Hillary
Clinton being elected president.

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Just by inferring, just looking at the market price of these specific goods.

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So if people expect Hillary to win, then the piece of paper which corresponds to her
winning will be more difficult to get.

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Because people care about it.

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They put value in it or they append value to it.

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And the piece of paper which corresponds to Hillary losing, people don't mind
because they don't expect it.

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So it's easy to get them.

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So in other words, they're cheap.

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So then it's ill.

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If this is a prediction market and the price of Hillary losing is very low and
Hillary winning is high,

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then it actually means that if the price is high, a lot of people expect her to win.

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But can you also say that because a lot of people expect her to win, that she will
win?

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Or is that something that the market has to prove?

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Okay, so that's an interesting question.

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So one thing about the market price is that whether people kind of accept this or
not,

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the market price is mostly unanimous.

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So when you say people believe that Hillary Clinton will win, the market price is
mostly unanimous.

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So it's mostly unanimously agreed to be correct.

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Because anyone who disagrees can supposedly, according to them, make money.

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It's sort of like this free money sitting on a table that they can just pick up.

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By picking up – whichever one is cheaper, they can just pick up.

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And then when everyone else figures out, as we get closer to reality where these
events will converge,

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this person will be able to either sell or just redeem this thing for $1.

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So there's this concept of complete agreement with the price.

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There are these exceptions where people are too risk averse,

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and the market isn't liquid enough for it to be worth their time to learn about
what's going on.

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Or if they're very, very poor, and they don't have any access to lending or
borrowing,

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and they can't team up with anyone or something like that.

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So there are these kind of things.

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But in general, the price is right, and it's always right according to everyone.

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Because anyone who disagrees has the opportunity to change the forecast to something
else.

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And the only thing that's demanded is that they pay up if they're wrong,

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and they get paid if they're right.

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So they have every reason to keep this thing accurate.

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So a kind of related question that you were asking, though, I think,

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is that since this is about an election,

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won't there be some kind of circularity to this?

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People believe with their voting,

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so maybe it's kind of a tautology or it's sort of self-fulfilling perhaps.

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So the interesting thing there is that it's not necessarily the people who vote who
would be betting.

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So a lot of people, I would imagine, would bet and then not even bother to vote,

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because particularly in the U.S., we have kind of a strange voting system,

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which basically makes voting irrelevant,

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because if you live in like a red state, your whole state will be red,

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and so nothing you do matters.

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If you yourself are red, if you are blue, it doesn't matter,

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because your state will just be red, and that's the end of that.

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In the U.K., they have also something like this,

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because the guy from UKIP, he was very popular across the whole country,

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but because he only got in one district the majority,

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in the end, at the national level, he had just, let's say, 3% of the votes,

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or at least 3% of the districts,

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but while he, on a national scale, he had like 30% or 5% or whatever,

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and it's kind of like the same in the U.S., as far as I understand.

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Yeah, it absolutely is.

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If you're a third party, you basically can't win.

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You're sort of throwing your vote away.

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Furthermore, it's, well, yeah, there's lots to talk about that.

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We could talk about that for a really long time,

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but yeah, there are all kinds of complications

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that make it kind of pointless to even vote.

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So a lot of people who are really informed probably don't vote,

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but they might bet to try and make money

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to use their understanding of what's going on to their advantage.

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The other thing is you have a lot of people who actually can't vote,

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because maybe, I don't know, they're too young,

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or they're like a felon or something,

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or they don't live in the United States.

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You can imagine that someone who's very good at political science

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or very good at sociology or something,

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and they're not a U.S. citizen.

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They live in, you know, I don't know, they live in Japan or something,

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and they might be...

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So that's an interesting thing is that it's not necessarily the same groups,

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and so since it's not the same groups, which group should win?

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And markets should always win,

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because although certain people prefer a certain outcome,

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and they'll cast a vote for that outcome,

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or they will try to change reality to make that outcome happen,

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some people prefer a certain outcome,

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but everyone prefers to make more money.

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So it's necessarily a subset,

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these people who might affect the outcome.

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Everyone who might affect the outcome is free to bet on the outcome,

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but it's not the case that everyone who might bet

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is free to, or would want to, or would care about affecting the outcome.

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So that's kind of an interesting asymmetry

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where it's...

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There's a lot of power in the fact that anyone can just show up to a market

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and participate in it, anyone.

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And people can, of course...

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Another huge difference is that you only get one vote

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when you actually vote,

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but in a market, you're free to double down.

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You can just keep going.

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I'm certain.

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I know exactly why all those other people have made the price $37,

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and I know it should be more than $37.

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So they can just keep putting more and more of their own money down.

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It doesn't have to be $1.

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It could be $2 or $4,

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or they can take a second mortgage on the house

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and put the hundreds of thousands of dollars into this thing.

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If they're sure that $37 or whatever the price is is a steal,

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they should be maybe not willing to do something that risky,

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but they should be, obviously,

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they would be putting more money than someone who's not as certain.

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And a final thing is that markets reward people who have meta-knowledge.

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So when you cast a vote,

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you may cast a vote simply on principle

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because you agree with the candidate.

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Maybe you cast a strategic vote.

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Maybe you don't.

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It doesn't really matter.

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But the point is you cast a vote.

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Your motivation, most people's motivation is purely altruistic.

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They believe that this is the way the country should be governed and approved,

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and they cast a vote for that reason.

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But with a market, you want to look at, okay,

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what do I really think will actually happen in this voting outcome?

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And then you look at the market price and you say,

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why is the market price that?

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What does everyone else, everyone who's not me,

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because anyone can participate,

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anyone can participate in the market,

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anyone in the whole world.

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And you say, what's so different about me that I think the price should be this

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versus some other thing?

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And if you think, well, I don't really know.

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I don't really know.

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I don't think there's anything special about me.

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You'll just shut up, and you won't put your money into the market.

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And that's the magic that makes it work.

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The magic that makes it work is that it just filters out all these people who

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can't really, who don't have this kind of moment of certainty that says,

226
00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:07,000
I know why my contribution to this market is the most important out of

227
00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:10,000
everyone in the world, because people would look at the market price,

228
00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:12,000
and they'd say, oh, you know,

229
00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:17,000
the market just hasn't learned about that the news broke that, you know,

230
00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:21,000
candidate X murdered that person or something, and they're going to lose.

231
00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:24,000
You know, I'm the first one to know about that, or something like that.

232
00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:28,000
Or they know, like, I am an expert on this,

233
00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:32,000
and there's going to be an oil shortage right before the election that will

234
00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:35,000
make everyone miserable or something.

235
00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:38,000
So that's a big difference.

236
00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:41,000
But to make it more practical to understand,

237
00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:49,000
am I right that Truthcoin is kind of like the bookies in England, in the UK?

238
00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:54,000
In the sense that, you know, in the UK, you can bet on an outcome of games.

239
00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:58,000
For example, if, you know...

240
00:18:58,000 --> 00:18:59,000
Horse races.

241
00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:00,000
Sorry?

242
00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:01,000
Horse races is one of them, isn't it?

243
00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:03,000
Yeah, yeah.

244
00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:07,000
And, you know, horse A wins from...

245
00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:08,000
Of course.

246
00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:10,000
Or the United...

247
00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:11,000
Sorry?

248
00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:17,000
Yeah, so obviously the English are great at betting,

249
00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:21,000
and they should be respected for that kind of...

250
00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:23,000
It's sort of seen as a noble thing.

251
00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:28,000
So, yeah, there are a lot of bookies in, you know, the UK in particular.

252
00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:31,000
But one difference is that these are markets, and they're not...

253
00:19:31,000 --> 00:19:33,000
So the bookies set the odds,

254
00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:36,000
and they collect a little commission for their services.

255
00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:40,000
But with this, the odds will change in a market environment.

256
00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:41,000
So the market...

257
00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:43,000
So although they are kind of similar,

258
00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:47,000
I would say a bookie is sort of like a prediction market that's kind of frozen in
time.

259
00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:51,000
Yeah, but, I mean, to make it more practical, how does it work?

260
00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:55,000
I put up a statement.

261
00:19:55,000 --> 00:19:58,000
I say, I believe Hillary wins.

262
00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:01,000
And then, I mean...

263
00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:07,000
The technical details are that someone would create some event that they want
reported,

264
00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:09,000
and this would cost some money,

265
00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:13,000
and this would go into the blockchain algorithm.

266
00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:18,000
And then, secondly, someone would create a market using this event,

267
00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:20,000
which I call a decision.

268
00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:24,000
So Hillary Clinton being elected would be like a yes or no decision.

269
00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:26,000
You use a market with this decision.

270
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:28,000
The reason this is in two steps is because, actually,

271
00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:33,000
you can create lots of fancier markets that use multiple decisions at once,

272
00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:36,000
or use a different decision in a different way,

273
00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:38,000
or something like that.

274
00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:42,000
But you can kind of ignore that for this simple example.

275
00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:44,000
And so you've got...

276
00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:48,000
Yeah, but to say it like this, I put out a statement,

277
00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:53,000
and once it's out, people can start betting on yes or no.

278
00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:55,000
Right, so that would be like where we are.

279
00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:57,000
Right, so the market would be created,

280
00:20:57,000 --> 00:21:00,000
and there's this concept of a scoring rule,

281
00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:04,000
which is a type of...

282
00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:06,000
I guess you could call it an interface.

283
00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:08,000
So it's really the type of market,

284
00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:14,000
but explaining about market types is usually kind of a complicated thing.

285
00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:15,000
But instead of...

286
00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:18,000
There's usually something called a double auction,

287
00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:21,000
where people bid in both ways.

288
00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:24,000
So they bid on buying a stock.

289
00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:26,000
They'll say, I'll pay $5 for the stock.

290
00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:27,000
I'll pay $7 for the stock.

291
00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:29,000
I'll pay $9 for the stock.

292
00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:32,000
I'll pay $20 for the stock.

293
00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:34,000
And then other people bid in the other way,

294
00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:36,000
which is why it's called a double auction.

295
00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:40,000
So they'll say, okay, I'll sell the stock for $40.

296
00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:44,000
I'll sell the stock for $30.

297
00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:47,000
I'll sell the stock for $20 or whatever.

298
00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:50,000
I'll sell it for $19 because I'm really desperate,

299
00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:52,000
and I really want money.

300
00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:55,000
So there's this double auction, and then when they overlap,

301
00:21:55,000 --> 00:22:00,000
people match those up and the trade gets executed.

302
00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:02,000
But a scoring rule is a little different.

303
00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:05,000
It's just a little bit more appropriate to a blockchain

304
00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:08,000
because you don't have to store anything intermediate.

305
00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:10,000
Either the transaction just goes through or it doesn't.

306
00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:12,000
So that's a little easier.

307
00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:13,000
Yeah, but the whole point...

308
00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:20,000
I mean, you know, let's say I believe it's true.

309
00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:24,000
I believe Hillary will win, so I believe the statement is true.

310
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:30,000
I mean, and if in the end I'm right, I mean,

311
00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:36,000
is there a reward or something?

312
00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:38,000
Of course, you bid actual money, yes.

313
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:40,000
So you would get...

314
00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:45,000
Let's say it's created where, you know,

315
00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:50,000
upon its creation, the prices are, you know, half, 50%, 50%.

316
00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:55,000
And someone believes that she won't be elected,

317
00:22:55,000 --> 00:23:00,000
and they put a little bit of money on the no side.

318
00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:03,000
You could put a little bit of money on the yes side,

319
00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:04,000
and I don't know.

320
00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:05,000
You know, it depends on...

321
00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:08,000
The price is going to change based on how much money has been placed down.

322
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:11,000
But let's just say that money has been placed down

323
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:15,000
and the price is still 50-50 for some, you know,

324
00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:17,000
because the amounts have been sort of equal.

325
00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:22,000
And you could put whatever the equivalent of, you know,

326
00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:24,000
2 euros worth of Bitcoin down.

327
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:30,000
And then upon the conclusion, if Hillary Clinton is actually elected,

328
00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:34,000
the prices will be fixed.

329
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:39,000
The market prices will be fixed at the very end of the process at 1 and 0.

330
00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:45,000
And so even though you spent 2 euro-ish on something that was 50%,

331
00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:48,000
so you got 4 shares,

332
00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:54,000
you'd be able to sell each of the 4 shares at a price of 1, you know, euro.

333
00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:57,000
We're glossing over the details of the exchange rate,

334
00:23:57,000 --> 00:24:01,000
which you can... there's stuff on that.

335
00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:05,000
But, yeah, so you put 2 euros in, you have 4 euros out.

336
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:07,000
And so now you're a happy guy.

337
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:09,000
Someone else put 2 euros in, they get 0 out.

338
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:12,000
Their 2 euros went to you.

339
00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:13,000
Yeah, okay.

340
00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:19,000
So the reward I get is the loss someone else has because someone...

341
00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:20,000
Yes.

342
00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:23,000
You know, for example, just to make it very practical,

343
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:29,000
we have, let's say, 100 voters or 100 people who participate.

344
00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:33,000
60 say Hillary wins, 40 say Hillary loses.

345
00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:37,000
And just to keep it simple,

346
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:40,000
everybody has put in the same amount of money.

347
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:46,000
So that means that 60% of the winners get, let's say,

348
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:50,000
the 1 euro or dollar from the 40.

349
00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:52,000
So to say it like this,

350
00:24:52,000 --> 00:25:02,000
the reward of the winners is 4 divided 60.

351
00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:03,000
Yeah.

352
00:25:03,007 --> 00:25:09,367
Not quite, but yeah, I mean, that's in a general sense, yes. But again, there's a
time dimension

353
00:25:09,367 --> 00:25:15,127
that's important. So lots of people bet earlier... The earlier you move, the right,
the better.

354
00:25:15,127 --> 00:25:21,047
So that's a normal thing. But yeah, and basically you are correct in saying that all
the money

355
00:25:21,047 --> 00:25:26,007
won is coming from someone else who lost it. So that... But that's the same as in
every

356
00:25:26,007 --> 00:25:32,567
market, right? Yeah. Some people will go... You go long, the oil futures or whatever
with

357
00:25:32,567 --> 00:25:39,847
dollars and if the dollar per oil price goes up, then you win. But if the dollar per
oil

358
00:25:39,847 --> 00:25:50,087
price goes down, you lose. So that's just a totally normal feature of markets. But I

359
00:25:50,087 --> 00:25:58,247
mean, because it sounds still something like that somehow should be managed by
people.

360
00:25:59,127 --> 00:26:07,927
But I understood from some parts of your website that one of your opinions is that
about oracles,

361
00:26:08,327 --> 00:26:19,607
that you actually think that... Please correct me if I say it wrong, that

362
00:26:24,487 --> 00:26:30,807
for a lot of things that you could use prediction markets as oracles, if I'm right.

363
00:26:31,767 --> 00:26:39,767
Of course, yes. You could... Well, it's sort of like an oracle. It's a little bit...
Basically,

364
00:26:39,767 --> 00:26:45,447
my definition of an oracle is something that where the human provides some
information.

365
00:26:46,087 --> 00:26:52,727
So you can use... I would say oracles are required for prediction markets. However,

366
00:26:52,727 --> 00:26:58,487
prediction markets themselves, they could... It's a very general term. So you could
use

367
00:26:58,487 --> 00:27:03,607
prediction markets to create other smart contracts like the prediction... Instead of

368
00:27:03,607 --> 00:27:11,127
the decision being Hillary Clinton being elected or some other price feed in finance
or something

369
00:27:11,127 --> 00:27:17,687
like that, the decision, this question here, this event, that could just be some
computer

370
00:27:17,687 --> 00:27:24,967
code or something. And this could be a lot simpler. So the concept of a prediction
market

371
00:27:24,967 --> 00:27:31,207
is very general. It's just another financial derivative based on something. So
that's the

372
00:27:31,207 --> 00:27:37,207
cool thing about this project is that it expands the blockchain's world to include
oracles so that

373
00:27:37,207 --> 00:27:41,687
it can learn about the outside world and you can use that information however you
like. So...

374
00:27:44,727 --> 00:27:48,967
Very, very well with the participants are already in the blockchain and they're in
the

375
00:27:48,967 --> 00:27:54,407
signature system, right? So you can have your third party sign off on any kind of

376
00:27:56,087 --> 00:28:00,487
payment channel or multi-signature transaction or something like that, right? So if
you trust

377
00:28:00,487 --> 00:28:05,607
the third party, the third party can do everything. Everything for you. It can run
the prediction

378
00:28:05,607 --> 00:28:11,927
market website. It can run any type of thing, right? Basically, almost anything. As
long as

379
00:28:11,927 --> 00:28:16,247
you want to trust the third party. But as soon as you want to do something else
where you want

380
00:28:16,247 --> 00:28:21,767
the data to be trustworthy and you don't want an individual to have the authority to

381
00:28:22,567 --> 00:28:30,727
manipulate that data and steal the derivative funds, then that's kind of where this
thing

382
00:28:30,727 --> 00:28:35,047
comes in. But yeah, Bitcoin you can almost do almost everything with. This is kind
of a very

383
00:28:35,047 --> 00:28:43,767
ambitious plug-in. Yeah, because I understood that, I mean, one of the problems I
often have

384
00:28:43,767 --> 00:28:50,647
with understanding smart contracts, for example, is that, I mean, you know, in a
conceptual way,

385
00:28:50,647 --> 00:29:02,007
it all sounds very nice. But then you think, you know, there are, of course, a lot
of contracts

386
00:29:02,007 --> 00:29:09,527
which are very difficult to fully automize. Oh yeah. And I understood that your idea
would be

387
00:29:09,527 --> 00:29:15,927
that, for example, if we have a prediction market which says that Hillary will win
or lose,

388
00:29:16,567 --> 00:29:23,927
that, you know, the market somehow has to get to know if she really won or lose.

389
00:29:23,927 --> 00:29:36,167
Absolutely. And then the idea is that people can cast a vote if she really won.

390
00:29:36,167 --> 00:29:49,207
I mean, if they have the conclusion that she really won and then you take the

391
00:29:49,207 --> 00:29:55,687
general outcome of that vote, if I'm right. And the general outcome of that vote
means

392
00:29:55,687 --> 00:30:04,567
if she has really won and that outcome can be used by the prediction market to know

393
00:30:05,127 --> 00:30:10,247
what was the outcome of the election. Yeah, so the question of how does the

394
00:30:10,247 --> 00:30:17,607
blockchain actually learn what happened, that is what the project is really about
and what

395
00:30:17,607 --> 00:30:23,047
the white paper is really about because that is very difficult to do for a lot of
obvious reasons

396
00:30:23,047 --> 00:30:29,367
that if there's millions of dollars hanging on this marketplace, anyone who could
change what

397
00:30:29,367 --> 00:30:36,007
the blockchain concludes can take all that money. So I do a variety of things to try
and make that

398
00:30:36,007 --> 00:30:46,247
data available in the correct way and one way is that I exploit time. We don't know
today who will

399
00:30:46,247 --> 00:30:52,807
win but it will be very obvious this time next year in December of 2016, it will be
very obvious

400
00:30:53,367 --> 00:31:01,847
who won and so there's no kind of like cost of ambiguity or kind of like
uncertainty.

401
00:31:01,847 --> 00:31:07,607
Anyone who doesn't say the right winner, the right answer is deliberately intending
to lie.

402
00:31:07,607 --> 00:31:12,407
So that's a nice thing. We can make the search cost very low by just putting them
after

403
00:31:13,527 --> 00:31:19,687
the event actually takes place and since this is all like a finance marketplace
thing,

404
00:31:20,327 --> 00:31:23,847
as long as the ultimate resolution is correct, it shouldn't really impact

405
00:31:24,407 --> 00:31:30,887
in a significant way people who are using the marketplace. So that's kind of a cool
thing but

406
00:31:30,887 --> 00:31:35,527
the main thing I do is I have people, I've kind of blocked the votes into big
groups,

407
00:31:35,527 --> 00:31:43,127
to big matrices. So I force multiple people to vote on multiple things. So one
person doesn't

408
00:31:43,127 --> 00:31:47,367
just vote on Hillary Clinton, you have to vote on everything and they're all blocked
based on time.

409
00:31:47,367 --> 00:31:51,527
So they probably don't have very much to do with each other other than time,
although they may and

410
00:31:51,527 --> 00:32:01,367
that's fine. So it's kind of like at the Dutch television, there they often, I guess
it's the

411
00:32:01,367 --> 00:32:11,607
same in America, they often have panels from viewers of that show. So then they have
some

412
00:32:11,607 --> 00:32:18,807
news about the Dutch politician saying something and then they ask their panel what
did you think

413
00:32:18,807 --> 00:32:28,167
of it and I mean as far as I understand those things is that the votes, they often
have let's

414
00:32:28,167 --> 00:32:36,887
say 20,000 viewers who take part in such panels and the longer someone has voted,

415
00:32:36,967 --> 00:32:47,127
the more meaningful his vote becomes in the next vote because you can kind of
normalize his votes.

416
00:32:47,927 --> 00:32:53,047
You know, it's kind of... Yeah, so I do a lot of things. It's much better for people
to, I think,

417
00:32:53,607 --> 00:32:58,887
if they're very interested, they can read the white paper and hopefully it makes
sense and

418
00:32:58,887 --> 00:33:04,967
if it's not clear, then you can email me and I'll try to clarify it so that everyone
can enjoy

419
00:33:05,687 --> 00:33:10,407
more clarity, but I do a lot of things so basically people have to buy in in order
to vote.

420
00:33:10,407 --> 00:33:16,007
You have to buy into this kind of corporation, so it's like a corporation type model
where you get

421
00:33:16,007 --> 00:33:23,127
votes based on how many shares you have and then I do this cool statistical trick
since everyone's

422
00:33:23,127 --> 00:33:28,167
voting on multiple things where the votes cross-reference each other and I know if
you're

423
00:33:28,167 --> 00:33:32,807
planning on lying, you'll eventually create something like a totally different
reality

424
00:33:32,807 --> 00:33:36,487
where it's going to be very obvious because you have to lie about a lot of things,

425
00:33:37,367 --> 00:33:41,927
otherwise this thing will kind of catch you as being a multivariate kind of outlier
in this

426
00:33:42,487 --> 00:33:53,127
giant space. But so to say it like this, you are creating an, let's say, automated
environment

427
00:33:54,087 --> 00:34:03,127
where people can earn in a certain way or have an incentive to tell the truth

428
00:34:03,847 --> 00:34:13,287
as they know it at least and you could compare it or to a certain degree you are
automating

429
00:34:13,287 --> 00:34:20,007
the Amazon Mechanical Turk away. Yeah, it's sort of, yeah right, so Mechanical Turk
is a great

430
00:34:20,007 --> 00:34:26,087
example because the scope of this project is just things that are easily locatable
and then

431
00:34:26,087 --> 00:34:32,807
simple choices. So the only thing that someone can do is like tell the truth or lie
and so if

432
00:34:32,807 --> 00:34:36,807
they're going to lie, it's deliberate and if it's going to be deliberate, they're
going to have to

433
00:34:36,807 --> 00:34:41,847
lie about lots of things because they're either going to, either it's just going to
fail outright

434
00:34:41,847 --> 00:34:47,127
because they don't own enough shares of the corporation or the corporation's market
cap

435
00:34:47,127 --> 00:34:52,727
will explode because the corporation will have kind of deceived everyone and
betrayed its

436
00:34:52,727 --> 00:34:59,847
customers and lost everything. So they have to make up for what they paid to buy in
or the third

437
00:34:59,847 --> 00:35:08,487
threat is that they change this reality so much that there's like a waiting period
and sort of

438
00:35:08,487 --> 00:35:13,207
like a minor veto concept. They just change it so much that miners just kind of
refuse to

439
00:35:14,167 --> 00:35:21,847
go with it and they just build on something that demands a redo and there's plenty
of time for

440
00:35:21,847 --> 00:35:26,967
people to learn that and it's very easy for miners to check because again, you voted
on everything.

441
00:35:27,607 --> 00:35:33,207
So if this thing is saying all kinds of nonsense stuff about who won the Super Bowl,
who got

442
00:35:33,207 --> 00:35:39,687
elected, what prices are backwards from what they are in financial markets, this
whole stuff is

443
00:35:39,687 --> 00:35:47,607
backwards and it's going to be pretty easy for miners to tell and it will only take
like

444
00:35:47,607 --> 00:35:53,047
one phone conversation for 15 minutes for them to decide sometime during like a
week.

445
00:35:54,487 --> 00:36:01,207
You have these tremendous threats that on the high end and then I build in more
threats at the

446
00:36:01,207 --> 00:36:07,927
medium end and then I build in lots of threats at the shallow end, which encourages
all the

447
00:36:07,927 --> 00:36:12,327
actual work to be done there by these people who vote and the voting corporation
collects

448
00:36:13,287 --> 00:36:23,287
trading fees as a result and they get money and this thing has a market
capitalization

449
00:36:23,287 --> 00:36:35,287
and the market capitalization is what you have to pay in order to get voting ability
or voting

450
00:36:35,287 --> 00:36:44,087
weight and so that prevents civil attacks, et cetera, exit scams because you don't
want to

451
00:36:44,087 --> 00:36:50,007
exit scam now, you can just sell your shares. If you've been doing great, now you
can just sell.

452
00:36:50,007 --> 00:36:53,207
If you added a lot of value and built up a lot of reputation, you can just sell it.

453
00:36:55,367 --> 00:36:59,207
But it's much better to read, it's not really the kind of thing that can be
explained

454
00:37:00,007 --> 00:37:04,807
in a few minutes. Could you compare it for example with,

455
00:37:07,207 --> 00:37:17,287
I read the comparison with when there is a crime, the police just starts questioning

456
00:37:18,727 --> 00:37:26,247
bystanders and of course they can all lie but because it's way more difficult to lie

457
00:37:27,207 --> 00:37:32,807
organized, to say it like this. Absolutely, coordination, yes.

458
00:37:34,247 --> 00:37:38,567
Yeah, you're completely correct. So the whole point is that…

459
00:37:40,487 --> 00:37:43,047
Everyone already knows what the truth is for free.

460
00:37:43,047 --> 00:37:47,687
Yeah, it's easier to tell the truth, it's easier to tell,

461
00:37:48,167 --> 00:37:54,567
coordinate, yeah. That's the principle.

462
00:37:54,567 --> 00:37:58,327
It takes less coordination to tell the truth than to lie.

463
00:37:58,327 --> 00:38:01,607
Because you can already coordinate with reality because you just saw it.

464
00:38:08,247 --> 00:38:17,447
And could you also compare it to that, I mean the idea behind Bitcoin mining and
behind…

465
00:38:17,447 --> 00:38:18,167
Absolutely, yes.

466
00:38:19,047 --> 00:38:26,007
Double spending is that Bitcoin in itself strictly speaking is not,

467
00:38:26,727 --> 00:38:31,847
you know, the transactions that end up in the blockchain don't necessarily,

468
00:38:34,167 --> 00:38:41,047
they are not necessarily a complete true resemblance of all the transactions but
it's just

469
00:38:42,007 --> 00:38:59,127
a real, it's just easier to, sorry, in the end Bitcoin is based on the idea that

470
00:39:00,567 --> 00:39:06,327
he who shouts louder than others is more right. I mean that sounds a little bit not
nice.

471
00:39:06,727 --> 00:39:11,927
It's, you know, I think what you're getting at is that the heaviest chain rule,

472
00:39:12,727 --> 00:39:17,447
that's reality, it's known to everyone. Everyone can add up all the different
possible chains

473
00:39:17,447 --> 00:39:22,167
and they can see which one has the highest number of points, the highest amount of
total work.

474
00:39:23,047 --> 00:39:29,207
And so that's exactly how Bitcoin works. And so everyone knows, so someone might say

475
00:39:30,087 --> 00:39:35,927
you have this incentive, okay, let's move on to this other chain because we'll
double spend

476
00:39:35,927 --> 00:39:46,567
and we'll make a lot of money. But in both Hivemind and in Bitcoin, you can't double
work,

477
00:39:46,567 --> 00:39:51,367
right, you only own a certain percentage. The corporation has these shares and they
add up to

478
00:39:51,367 --> 00:39:56,967
100% of the voting power and so if you allocate your voting power to one thing, you
can't allocate

479
00:39:56,967 --> 00:40:02,407
it to another thing and you will suffer financially if you aren't with the consensus
and that's

480
00:40:02,407 --> 00:40:09,367
exactly how mining works because if you mine on top of the wrong chain, no one will
accept

481
00:40:09,367 --> 00:40:15,127
your coins and you spend a lot of mining power on nothing. So it is very similar in
that way.

482
00:40:16,007 --> 00:40:23,287
Okay, and I was also wondering, are you known with the Liquid Democracy Project?

483
00:40:24,727 --> 00:40:30,967
I'm actually not but I have some ideas. So I have a strong feeling that my fate in
the future

484
00:40:30,967 --> 00:40:42,167
is going to be related to something like, I have kind of like a second kind of idea
past this

485
00:40:42,167 --> 00:40:47,047
because part of this is that you'd want to vote, what you'd like to do is…

486
00:40:48,647 --> 00:40:50,007
Delegate a vote.

487
00:40:50,007 --> 00:40:55,207
Yeah, what you would like to do is you'd want to have individual citizens vote for a
candidate

488
00:40:55,207 --> 00:41:00,887
based on how likely that candidate is to achieve some goal. But usually the goal
would be something

489
00:41:01,047 --> 00:41:07,847
like low unemployment or high GDP or something else, you know, economic growth or
something.

490
00:41:08,407 --> 00:41:14,967
And those things, it doesn't matter, you know, if those things are measured by the
government

491
00:41:14,967 --> 00:41:24,407
and provided centrally, it's kind of not going to work. So I have a strong feeling
that I'll be

492
00:41:24,407 --> 00:41:31,527
involved in another kind of project later, which is about more like a grassroots
kind of

493
00:41:31,527 --> 00:41:38,087
making sure that voting is transparent, making sure that data is transparent and
other kind of

494
00:41:38,087 --> 00:41:41,687
things like that. So, but I'm kind of putting that off a little bit.

495
00:41:43,847 --> 00:41:51,527
I'm missing, to be honest, I'm missing your point about the GDP stuff. But the

496
00:41:54,967 --> 00:42:00,727
what I meant is, what is interesting about it is that

497
00:42:03,207 --> 00:42:09,127
they, with liquid democracy, in the beginning it was about,

498
00:42:12,167 --> 00:42:15,527
let's say, automizing the whole election process.

499
00:42:16,487 --> 00:42:24,087
But then I heard about that you could also say, for example, I could say

500
00:42:25,607 --> 00:42:33,447
that Janusz can vote for me if I, for whatever reason, don't want to vote. I can say
Janusz

501
00:42:33,447 --> 00:42:41,447
knows a lot about whatever. And so I can delegate my voting power to some other
people. And I

502
00:42:41,527 --> 00:42:49,287
understood that liquid democracy also tries to, they try to.

503
00:42:50,407 --> 00:42:55,447
And so does this in a way, because it delegates your thinking in a way. It helps you
out,

504
00:42:55,447 --> 00:43:00,007
it helps you. You don't have to do a lot of this stuff. You don't have to do a lot
of this

505
00:43:00,007 --> 00:43:05,607
thinking yourself. You can trust the thinking done by the market because you know
that anyone

506
00:43:05,607 --> 00:43:12,327
who's trying to manipulate it might have other experts right at their throat undoing
that.

507
00:43:12,327 --> 00:43:19,767
And so it's much, much scarier to try. And it's very easy to just go on television
news and just

508
00:43:19,767 --> 00:43:24,887
say, you think this or you think that. That's easy. It doesn't cost you anything
when you end

509
00:43:24,887 --> 00:43:30,727
up being wrong. But with something like a prediction market, it costs you big if you
are

510
00:43:30,727 --> 00:43:36,167
wrong and other people want your money. That money goes to them if they can prove
that you

511
00:43:36,167 --> 00:43:41,767
were wrong much earlier before you cast your vote, before any of this happens. So
that is,

512
00:43:42,647 --> 00:43:49,447
so that's sort of a similarity. Yeah, it's a complicated issue. But yeah, so I think
right

513
00:43:49,447 --> 00:43:54,807
now one thing as we discussed, voting doesn't really make a difference. So it
doesn't really

514
00:43:54,807 --> 00:44:00,567
matter. But once, if a project like this makes it so that voting does make a
difference,

515
00:44:01,367 --> 00:44:07,687
then you know, then we'll see like really like then I think the actual, you know,

516
00:44:07,687 --> 00:44:11,447
people will lose votes and they'll forge votes, right. Then it will actually matter

517
00:44:12,887 --> 00:44:17,207
a little bit more. And so we have to kind of, we have to keep a close eye on all the
different

518
00:44:17,207 --> 00:44:23,047
parts of the process is what I was saying to make sure that the weakest link is
always

519
00:44:23,047 --> 00:44:30,727
a pretty strong one. The reason I'm asking is because I read something like,

520
00:44:31,527 --> 00:44:40,167
that I don't remember exactly, but that I mean, if you're really wins or loses,

521
00:44:40,167 --> 00:44:46,647
that's a digital choice. It's yes or no. But you, I also read something on your site
about

522
00:44:47,287 --> 00:44:57,367
that you could, let's say, you could vote on different, let's say, sub-choices.

523
00:44:58,167 --> 00:45:04,647
Yes. Which can make up a bigger choice. And that's, and what I found interesting
about

524
00:45:04,647 --> 00:45:08,887
liquid democracy is that they also have something like that, that you, that they,

525
00:45:09,847 --> 00:45:17,847
I mean, the government, that me as a citizen, I don't vote how much trees will end
up in my

526
00:45:17,847 --> 00:45:23,367
streets, but that I can say, I like a green street. And that's, you know, that the
decision

527
00:45:24,647 --> 00:45:30,007
tends to understand what a green street means or something, you know, but that's
why,

528
00:45:30,487 --> 00:45:41,927
why, that's the resemblance I saw, I read with truth.

529
00:45:41,927 --> 00:45:46,567
I agree, yes. I think there is, I think there is some. I mean, it's going to be
really hard,

530
00:45:46,567 --> 00:45:54,087
liquid democracy, right? If you're going to be changing the way people vote, that
you're going

531
00:45:54,087 --> 00:45:59,287
to have to go through the actual political process in order to make that change,
which is going to

532
00:45:59,287 --> 00:46:07,687
be almost impossible, I think. But it's, it's certainly a good idea to have lots of
people

533
00:46:07,687 --> 00:46:10,887
thinking about these different ideas, and like I was saying, I think there'll
probably be some

534
00:46:10,887 --> 00:46:16,647
changes once it's easier for the public to actually cast an informed vote, and so
then it might be

535
00:46:17,927 --> 00:46:22,007
nice to have. But I don't think, I mean, it's going to be very difficult to get
someone to,

536
00:46:22,007 --> 00:46:27,127
like, amend the constitution to allow people to delegate their votes to other people
that

537
00:46:28,087 --> 00:46:29,447
I don't expect that to happen.

538
00:46:32,007 --> 00:46:35,047
I was wondering a bit differently, I'm not sure if it's,

539
00:46:36,647 --> 00:46:42,647
because all the decisions are basically recorded, so you could say that if you
record them for

540
00:46:42,647 --> 00:46:48,327
eternity, you have a sort of like a history book of facts, or sort of like a
Wikipedia of facts,

541
00:46:48,327 --> 00:46:50,247
or like, yeah, I don't know why you want to call it.

542
00:46:51,207 --> 00:46:57,207
Yeah, all the prices, assuming that those don't, that those that, which don't take
place in like

543
00:46:57,207 --> 00:47:01,127
some kind of payment channel or something off-chain. But yeah, even though the
prices

544
00:47:01,127 --> 00:47:07,687
are recorded, so you have an interesting kind of book, not a record of what
happened, but also

545
00:47:07,687 --> 00:47:12,967
what, when people thought that something happened. One very interesting thing is
that Barack Obama,

546
00:47:12,967 --> 00:47:20,167
or the Democratic candidate's victory in the year, the 2008 election in the United
States,

547
00:47:20,727 --> 00:47:28,887
the Democratic party, the left's blue party, that was trading on intrade above 50%
for,

548
00:47:28,887 --> 00:47:34,407
I think, like a year and a half before the election. So it was suspected or known
that

549
00:47:35,127 --> 00:47:41,367
the Democrat would win, and it was over 60% for much of that time as well, so it was
really

550
00:47:41,367 --> 00:47:47,847
suspect. People, somehow people really knew that, you know. And so that goes to an
interesting

551
00:47:47,847 --> 00:47:54,647
question of what drives the voters, what drives the voters to cast a vote for
whatever. I mean,

552
00:47:54,647 --> 00:48:03,207
is it just, do they decide early on, and then, you know, maybe they decide, if there
are four-year

553
00:48:03,207 --> 00:48:08,967
terms, four years in between each election, maybe they really decide like halfway
through,

554
00:48:08,967 --> 00:48:13,927
and by the time all the campaign ads come out, or whatever, you know, that most
people have

555
00:48:13,927 --> 00:48:17,687
kind of just made up their mind that they're not happy, or that they are happy, and
that they're

556
00:48:17,687 --> 00:48:22,407
going to stick with whatever party, or whatever they're going to do. But one thing,
though,

557
00:48:22,407 --> 00:48:27,527
is that the negative ads are to manipulate voter turnout primarily, they're not
about,

558
00:48:28,407 --> 00:48:33,287
but they don't seem, but that still wouldn't matter, right, because if something is
over 60%,

559
00:48:33,287 --> 00:48:39,287
I mean, that's pointing to a likelihood that this thing will happen. And if it
happens,

560
00:48:39,287 --> 00:48:43,927
and if that likelihood happens way earlier, like way before all this ad spending,
it's kind of

561
00:48:43,927 --> 00:48:49,607
unknown, like what effect, if any. What we'd really like to get away from, right, is
people

562
00:48:49,607 --> 00:48:56,967
attempting to manipulate who you vote for at all, through a debate, through an ad,
through anything.

563
00:48:56,967 --> 00:49:02,967
Like, what we just want is we just want whoever the best guy is for the job. We just
want to be

564
00:49:02,967 --> 00:49:10,647
able to find that guy. We don't really care about our guy or our girl. Although I'm
afraid

565
00:49:10,647 --> 00:49:17,207
it does give smart people more insight into what a good or a bad strategy is, and
next time they

566
00:49:17,207 --> 00:49:21,687
will find a better strategy. Yeah, maybe, right, so right, of course, this would
make it more easy

567
00:49:21,687 --> 00:49:28,327
for them to manipulate. Yeah, that's an interesting concern. Yeah, one would hope,
that's completely

568
00:49:28,327 --> 00:49:33,367
right, but I would hope that the arms race would terminate, ultimately, and people,
they would sit

569
00:49:33,367 --> 00:49:38,007
down on day one of the planning, right, and they'd say, we need to get this guy
elected. And they

570
00:49:38,007 --> 00:49:46,327
need to say, what economic strategy would actually work, you know, like, what would
actually work

571
00:49:46,327 --> 00:49:52,727
so that when the traders ultimately start attacking this guy, you know, they start
betting on him and

572
00:49:52,727 --> 00:50:01,127
good economy overlap, that they bet that our candidate, candidate X, you know, that
we want

573
00:50:01,127 --> 00:50:06,647
to win, they'll bet that he will be great or he or she will be great for
unemployment or something.

574
00:50:06,647 --> 00:50:10,167
So they'll put together a plan that actually will.

575
00:50:10,303 --> 00:50:12,303
Decrease unemployment, which is exactly what we want.

576
00:50:13,303 --> 00:50:14,303
The right policy is worse.

577
00:50:15,303 --> 00:50:18,303
Exactly, if both candidates are doing that, we don't really care which one wins.

578
00:50:19,303 --> 00:50:21,303
Yeah, exactly. The right policy is sort of the side effect of…

579
00:50:22,303 --> 00:50:36,303
Exactly, right. That's part of the arms race, where one candidate says, well, screw
you, I'm going to go back to the drawing board and think of a really great idea for
the country that really improves everyone's, you know,

580
00:50:37,303 --> 00:50:48,303
will really improve everyone's welfare, no matter how weird it sounds or whatever,
you know, because I want these numbers to move. So that's kind of a hope, obviously.

581
00:50:49,303 --> 00:50:50,303
Yeah.

582
00:50:51,303 --> 00:50:52,303
That would be much better.

583
00:50:52,303 --> 00:50:53,303
Definitely nice, yeah.

584
00:50:55,303 --> 00:50:58,303
And, yeah, another one.

585
00:51:02,303 --> 00:51:19,303
Assuming that there's at least a bit of, like, self-fulfilling prophecy going on
with voting for politicians and stuff, then you would think that, like, the Hillary
campaign would buy, like, a lot of the Hillary wins bets.

586
00:51:19,303 --> 00:51:29,303
So they put in, like, a million dollars or whatever. It will obviously influence the
price, but will the price go back to, like, the real price?

587
00:51:30,303 --> 00:51:34,303
Yeah, not only am I not concerned about that, I'm almost counting on it in a way.

588
00:51:35,303 --> 00:51:36,303
Subsidizing, yeah.

589
00:51:37,303 --> 00:51:54,303
The money, yeah, they've subsidized the market in a sense. So if they put a million
dollars in, now people think, if someone knows that, so this goes back to the
meta-knowledge point I tried to raise earlier, where people think, hey, wait a
minute, this price just moved kind of basically for no reason.

590
00:51:55,303 --> 00:52:00,303
I mean, it's not like anything relevant happened. I don't think anything relevant
happened. So I wonder why is the price up?

591
00:52:01,303 --> 00:52:06,303
And then they think, well, maybe Hillary Clinton just dumped a bunch of money.
Hillary Clinton's campaign just dumped a bunch of money in there.

592
00:52:07,303 --> 00:52:13,303
And so this would encourage people to kind of investigate and research what it is.

593
00:52:14,303 --> 00:52:26,303
Basically, they would research at the conclusion of this arms race, they would be
researching the factors that lead to how likely it is that Hillary Clinton is
elected.

594
00:52:27,303 --> 00:52:33,303
So they'd be looking at the actual real likelihood, and that's exactly what you want
them to look at.

595
00:52:33,303 --> 00:52:36,303
But there are lots of reasons why I'm not really worried about that.

596
00:52:37,303 --> 00:52:44,303
One is that if the Hillary Clinton campaign is doing this, there will be people,
unpaid interns or whatever, people who don't really care, janitor or whatever.

597
00:52:45,303 --> 00:52:50,303
There will be people who kind of find out about it, and they'll know that, hey, wait
a minute, this is all fake.

598
00:52:51,303 --> 00:52:57,303
I should be picking up a couple of these cheap shares on the off chance that this
plan fails.

599
00:52:57,303 --> 00:53:02,303
And now these really cheap shares that will be worth a dollar, I can get a huge
return this way.

600
00:53:03,303 --> 00:53:05,303
And there will be lots of people like that.

601
00:53:06,303 --> 00:53:10,303
The sheep attract the wolves, sort of saying, in finance.

602
00:53:11,303 --> 00:53:16,303
And so there are these people around and they can trade for fun or trade to do
whatever.

603
00:53:17,303 --> 00:53:21,303
But they will be killed by the wolves.

604
00:53:22,303 --> 00:53:25,303
The only question there is, is the market going to be liquid enough?

605
00:53:26,303 --> 00:53:28,303
Because there's a fixed amount of shares, isn't there?

606
00:53:29,303 --> 00:53:30,303
No, that's not the case.

607
00:53:31,303 --> 00:53:35,303
But the shares are issued by the rule, and so that's a very interesting process.

608
00:53:36,303 --> 00:53:39,303
Of course, there are a fixed amount, but it's some giant issue.

609
00:53:43,303 --> 00:53:45,303
But you're all right that there's a liquidity.

610
00:53:46,303 --> 00:53:49,303
There's always a question of liquidity everywhere.

611
00:53:50,303 --> 00:53:56,303
And so people may spend money and move the price in an annoying way.

612
00:53:57,303 --> 00:54:01,303
And people just think there's not enough money sitting in this market for me to
bother wanting to correct it.

613
00:54:02,303 --> 00:54:07,303
That's why it would be phenomenal if the Hillary Clinton campaign would dump a
million dollars in the market.

614
00:54:08,303 --> 00:54:16,303
That would be very cool because lots of people would be betting on no just to buy
these shares that are worth near zero.

615
00:54:17,303 --> 00:54:23,303
And it's certainly not a foregone conclusion that zero is certainly too low.

616
00:54:25,303 --> 00:54:30,303
So anyone with a finance mind, it's just your basics of finance, right?

617
00:54:31,303 --> 00:54:38,303
Maybe if there are 100 prediction markets and they're all manipulated so that the
price is pushed to 100%, 0%.

618
00:54:39,303 --> 00:54:43,303
Then all you have to do is you take $1 and you just split it in all the markets.

619
00:54:44,303 --> 00:54:46,303
And you just buy a little bit of the 0% and all of them.

620
00:54:47,303 --> 00:54:51,303
And you end up with tons of shares because the price is basically zero or near zero.

621
00:54:52,303 --> 00:54:57,303
And you end up with tons of shares, and there's no way that all of them were really
zero because they're all manipulated.

622
00:54:58,303 --> 00:55:00,303
And so there would be lots of people with a lot of money.

623
00:55:01,303 --> 00:55:03,303
But there needs to be enough shares.

624
00:55:04,303 --> 00:55:07,303
Liquidity is unfortunate, yes.

625
00:55:08,303 --> 00:55:17,303
You do need people to disagree and for them to fight it out in the market with their
money to build a more liquid marketplace.

626
00:55:18,303 --> 00:55:27,303
So one thing that I allow, one thing that I built in is that the people who create,
they list the decisions and they list these markets.

627
00:55:28,303 --> 00:55:32,303
They create them. They're sort of like entrepreneurs and they want a lot of trading
in the market.

628
00:55:33,303 --> 00:55:36,303
So they'll only create an event if they think that there will be trading in it.

629
00:55:37,303 --> 00:55:42,303
And they will get rewarded if they are right and punished if they are wrong.

630
00:55:43,303 --> 00:55:48,303
So they pay like a fixed amount and they get a percentage of – they get a cut of the
trading as a result.

631
00:55:49,303 --> 00:55:58,303
And one thing that they can do to encourage to kind of kickstart this thing is not
only can they just buy and sell as a trader themselves.

632
00:55:58,303 --> 00:56:06,303
But they can do this kind of operation within the market scoring rule that makes it
more liquid, the market more liquid on all sides.

633
00:56:07,303 --> 00:56:08,303
So I would hope that they would do that.

634
00:56:09,303 --> 00:56:11,303
But of course that costs money and that's money that they won't get back.

635
00:56:12,303 --> 00:56:14,303
That's part of their investment in the market.

636
00:56:15,303 --> 00:56:16,303
So I don't know exactly how that will play out.

637
00:56:17,303 --> 00:56:24,303
But I've tried to give people the tools so that if there is any overlap, preference
overlap, then everyone can take advantage of it.

638
00:56:25,303 --> 00:56:32,303
But Paul, you mean that it simply is not interesting.

639
00:56:33,303 --> 00:56:45,303
The Truthcoin needs disagreements because things where everybody agrees about, it
just doesn't make sense to make a statement out of it.

640
00:56:46,303 --> 00:56:47,303
Right.

641
00:56:48,303 --> 00:56:49,303
Okay.

642
00:56:50,303 --> 00:56:53,303
Yeah, because there wouldn't really be a lot of trading.

643
00:56:54,303 --> 00:57:00,303
So you'd want something where – you'd want to have a case where two people disagreed
publicly and you could create the market.

644
00:57:01,303 --> 00:57:03,303
And you could challenge both of them to put up some money.

645
00:57:04,303 --> 00:57:10,303
And then maybe you would succeed in getting one of them to back down and you'd
resolve the disagreement.

646
00:57:11,303 --> 00:57:13,303
But you wouldn't really get a lot of money that way.

647
00:57:14,303 --> 00:57:17,303
So that's kind of an annoying little thing.

648
00:57:18,303 --> 00:57:24,303
See, what you really want is two people who are really, really committed to their
position.

649
00:57:25,303 --> 00:57:27,303
So you want the big disagreements in the world.

650
00:57:28,303 --> 00:57:33,303
So you want to solve the biggest problems that people really, really disagree.

651
00:57:34,303 --> 00:57:41,303
So for example, Yanis thinks that Jeff Bezos will be the first one at Mars.

652
00:57:42,303 --> 00:57:45,303
And I think Elon Musk will be the one.

653
00:57:45,303 --> 00:57:46,303
That could be.

654
00:57:47,303 --> 00:57:48,303
That could very easily be.

655
00:57:49,303 --> 00:57:50,303
That's kind of personal.

656
00:57:51,303 --> 00:57:55,303
But yeah, you could see people getting excited about that, you know, because it's
Mars and it's Elon Musk.

657
00:57:56,303 --> 00:57:57,303
And they're both, I mean…

658
00:57:58,303 --> 00:57:59,303
They're both really serious about it, yeah.

659
00:57:59,303 --> 00:58:11,303
Yeah, but could it also be that, just for example, that Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos
agree on a prediction?

660
00:58:12,303 --> 00:58:21,303
Or agree that they kind of have a duel, in the sense that they put out a prediction.

661
00:58:21,303 --> 00:58:29,303
And that, for example, I mean, could they themselves somehow profit from a
prediction?

662
00:58:30,303 --> 00:58:39,303
In the sense that, let's say that Jeff and Elon on Twitter agree that the one who
wins the prediction gets some reward or something.

663
00:58:40,303 --> 00:58:42,303
Which makes it even more easier to get to Mars or whatever.

664
00:58:43,303 --> 00:58:45,303
I mean, because they get more money or whatever.

665
00:58:46,303 --> 00:58:47,303
Is that…

666
00:58:48,303 --> 00:58:58,303
Sure, you could say, someone could say a complicated thing like, conditional on them
winning this grant money, will they make it to Mars?

667
00:58:59,303 --> 00:59:04,303
And they can bet in the prediction market that if they get the grant money, they'll
make it to Mars.

668
00:59:05,303 --> 00:59:09,303
And then they can show people, hey, you should give us this grant money because look
at how much more likely we are to make it to Mars.

669
00:59:10,303 --> 00:59:12,303
Or you should back us, our ideas better.

670
00:59:12,303 --> 00:59:16,303
Or the individual engineers working for Elon Musk or whatever.

671
00:59:17,303 --> 00:59:24,303
Musk could set up a prediction market and say, okay, here's strategy number one,
here's strategy number two and here's strategy number three.

672
00:59:25,303 --> 00:59:28,303
Each of them might take us to Mars or might end in failure.

673
00:59:29,303 --> 00:59:34,303
And which of the three is most likely to actually succeed and then people could bet
there within the company.

674
00:59:35,303 --> 00:59:43,303
You wouldn't necessarily need a blockchain for that because a private company could
just do it with their own database or something.

675
00:59:44,303 --> 00:59:53,303
But that's a cool prediction market thing is that a lot of times, to quote Robin
Hanson, when you ask people a question,

676
00:59:53,303 --> 01:00:08,303
most of the time they tell you what they think you want to hear or what they want –
they tell you some kind of thing that – they tell you what they want to be heard as
having said.

677
01:00:09,303 --> 01:00:10,303
It's for some political reason.

678
01:00:11,303 --> 01:00:16,303
So when you ask people a question, they usually tell you what you want to know and
not what they really know.

679
01:00:17,303 --> 01:00:25,303
So we have this total loss of great information immediately for everyone, which is
not helpful.

680
01:00:26,303 --> 01:00:38,303
Yeah, because I was also wondering, I mean, so for example, as being the subject of
the statement is not a problem for putting out a statement in this case.

681
01:00:38,303 --> 01:00:51,303
But I mean, now, as we've been talking about it now, it would be about clear general
statements.

682
01:00:52,303 --> 01:01:10,303
But could you also, to a certain degree, outsource – yeah, your brain is a big word
– but I mean, could you, let's say, could you be running a company based on
predictions?

683
01:01:11,303 --> 01:01:23,303
Yeah, people make decisions of all kinds, including business decisions, based on
stock market data and price of commodities.

684
01:01:24,303 --> 01:01:32,303
If you're going to be – if you're like a – maybe you remodel homes, you know, you
build homes, you build houses.

685
01:01:33,303 --> 01:01:40,303
You would need to know like the price of things, like the price of copper, you know,
copper futures or spot prices or whatever.

686
01:01:41,303 --> 01:01:45,303
You know, if you're going to put in copper pipes or plastic pipes or whatever.

687
01:01:45,303 --> 01:01:47,303
So people use market data.

688
01:01:48,303 --> 01:01:49,303
They kind of free ride, really.

689
01:01:50,303 --> 01:01:51,303
They free ride on the market data.

690
01:01:52,303 --> 01:01:54,303
They use it, even if they're not directly participating.

691
01:01:55,303 --> 01:02:05,303
And yeah, people who are going to start a business use all kinds of important data
to indicate whether or not they have enough sales to justify expanding or starting a
new business.

692
01:02:06,303 --> 01:02:11,303
So yeah, you could easily use this information for any reason.

693
01:02:11,303 --> 01:02:22,303
I also mean that – because now it is – like we've been talking about it now, it's
about very general statements, very general.

694
01:02:23,303 --> 01:02:37,303
But can you all – I mean, it would be nice if you could really, you know, make – if
you could somehow outsource your brain capacity.

695
01:02:38,303 --> 01:02:41,303
That's basically what you're doing by betting, I guess.

696
01:02:42,303 --> 01:02:43,303
Sorry?

697
01:02:44,303 --> 01:02:45,303
Yeah, that's kind of what we're doing.

698
01:02:46,303 --> 01:02:47,303
That's what you're already doing by betting.

699
01:02:48,303 --> 01:02:50,303
Yeah, but I just want to say like this.

700
01:02:51,303 --> 01:03:03,303
Could you write a program, a decentralized autonomous organization or whatever, and
say that, you know, for certain degrees the program wants to know outside real world
decisions.

701
01:03:04,303 --> 01:03:08,303
Or somehow, you know, sometimes there have to be made decisions.

702
01:03:09,303 --> 01:03:15,303
And that you could say, I use the prediction markets as the oracle for those
decisions.

703
01:03:17,303 --> 01:03:21,303
I don't know about that because – maybe, I don't know.

704
01:03:22,303 --> 01:03:27,303
It's not really clear because the oracles only be listed if people think that there
will be trading fees.

705
01:03:28,303 --> 01:03:29,303
So I don't know.

706
01:03:31,303 --> 01:03:35,303
But yeah, you could use this process that I built in just a direct way.

707
01:03:36,303 --> 01:03:43,303
And you could just say – this is called – sometimes it's called like eigen trust or
something with the vote cross-referencing thing.

708
01:03:44,303 --> 01:03:49,303
And you could just have that happen like a discrete time and not have this ongoing
kind of corporation thing.

709
01:03:50,303 --> 01:03:51,303
I don't really have the most time.

710
01:03:52,303 --> 01:03:54,303
I've got stuff to pack a little bit and then go.

711
01:03:54,303 --> 01:03:55,303
Okay.

712
01:03:56,303 --> 01:03:57,303
The plane.

713
01:03:58,303 --> 01:04:00,303
Do you guys have any other great questions?

714
01:04:01,303 --> 01:04:02,303
Yeah.

715
01:04:04,303 --> 01:04:12,303
Another thing is about your – why proof of stake isn't cheaper and isn't better than
proof of work.

716
01:04:14,303 --> 01:04:15,303
I was wondering.

717
01:04:16,303 --> 01:04:17,303
Sorry?

718
01:04:18,303 --> 01:04:19,303
I just said it's not.

719
01:04:20,303 --> 01:04:21,303
So please.

720
01:04:22,303 --> 01:04:23,303
Yeah.

721
01:04:24,303 --> 01:04:28,303
Why proof of stake isn't cheaper and isn't better than proof of work.

722
01:04:29,303 --> 01:04:35,303
And could you – because we were talking about the elections in America.

723
01:04:36,303 --> 01:04:57,303
I mean could you to a certain degree compare it to – in theory elections are very
sound in the sense that if everybody chooses and make up their own mind it should
work.

724
01:04:57,303 --> 01:05:10,303
But in reality of course the candidates with the most money is in the end the most
likely to win the elections.

725
01:05:11,303 --> 01:05:17,303
I mean not necessarily but it's always good to have some billions behind you.

726
01:05:18,303 --> 01:05:19,303
Yeah.

727
01:05:19,303 --> 01:05:20,303
So that's interesting.

728
01:05:20,303 --> 01:05:21,303
So proof of work.

729
01:05:22,303 --> 01:05:23,303
Yeah.

730
01:05:23,303 --> 01:05:28,303
So what actually happens and what a lot of people apparently don't understand which
I think is pretty simple.

731
01:05:29,303 --> 01:05:37,303
But the block – each Bitcoin block releases a quantity of Bitcoins which is
currently 25 plus fees which are very low.

732
01:05:38,303 --> 01:05:39,303
Which are like 01 or something.

733
01:05:40,303 --> 01:05:41,303
So 25.01.

734
01:05:42,303 --> 01:05:43,303
That's released.

735
01:05:43,303 --> 01:05:46,303
That has a value of purchasing power, you know.

736
01:05:47,303 --> 01:05:51,303
You could say it's worth whatever $8,000 or whatever it is.

737
01:05:52,303 --> 01:05:58,303
And you could say with $8,000 I could buy you know one hamburger a day for like I
don't know 500 days or whatever it is.

738
01:05:59,303 --> 01:06:02,303
However expensive hamburgers are.

739
01:06:03,303 --> 01:06:05,303
So the point is there's this benefit for each block.

740
01:06:06,303 --> 01:06:10,303
It's worth you know a year of hamburgers to you or something you know.

741
01:06:10,303 --> 01:06:16,303
And so that is where the work – that is the source of the work.

742
01:06:17,303 --> 01:06:22,303
That is the genesis of people working and fighting over this benefit that's created.

743
01:06:23,303 --> 01:06:24,303
So it's the same thing in the election world.

744
01:06:25,303 --> 01:06:35,303
Because the federal government has lots of stuff to give out, people will fight and
they'll spend money and they'll do whatever it takes to achieve that resource.

745
01:06:36,303 --> 01:06:47,303
In addition to any benefit they get, any warm fuzzy feelings they get by running the
country or trying to make the world a better place or just their lust for power or
whatever it is.

746
01:06:48,303 --> 01:06:58,303
But in addition to that, if there are these kickbacks, you know these rewards that
you can give out to people as the king.

747
01:06:59,303 --> 01:07:01,303
Everyone's going to want to be the king and they're going to fight over it.

748
01:07:01,303 --> 01:07:11,303
The more powerful the king is, the more brutal the competition will be over who is
the next leader.

749
01:07:12,303 --> 01:07:14,303
So that's kind of a similarity there I think.

750
01:07:15,303 --> 01:07:17,303
Kind of a nice analogy actually.

751
01:07:18,303 --> 01:07:37,303
Yeah, because the problem is that I really like the stuff but that's the stuff which
is not the core for your project.

752
01:07:38,303 --> 01:07:42,303
But I read about your proof of stake and the other things about Augur.

753
01:07:43,303 --> 01:07:48,303
I mean it was really for me enlightening to say it like this.

754
01:07:49,303 --> 01:07:51,303
Thank you, glad you enjoyed it.

755
01:07:52,303 --> 01:07:58,303
But I don't want to mess too much with your time.

756
01:07:59,303 --> 01:08:11,303
Yeah, maybe we can continue this conversation because I'll be at the airport for a
while and then I'll be in my Hong Kong hotel.

757
01:08:12,303 --> 01:08:16,303
So there's plenty of opportunity to talk in the future.

758
01:08:17,303 --> 01:08:18,303
Yeah, of course.

759
01:08:19,303 --> 01:08:28,303
I mean if you like to, we would also like to because at least to me this is a very
unexplored area.

760
01:08:29,303 --> 01:08:35,303
And to be honest I think also to a lot of other people and listeners.

761
01:08:38,303 --> 01:08:39,303
Just one last question.

762
01:08:40,303 --> 01:08:42,303
What do you expect of scaling Bitcoin?

763
01:08:43,303 --> 01:08:44,303
Yeah, great question.

764
01:08:44,303 --> 01:08:47,303
So I have kind of a problem.

765
01:08:48,303 --> 01:08:50,303
There's a little bit of a contradiction, isn't there?

766
01:08:51,303 --> 01:09:00,303
On one hand it's claimed that, you know, quote, no decisions will be made at the
conference, close quote.

767
01:09:01,303 --> 01:09:05,303
And that's supposed to be this important thing to stop people's feelings from
getting hurt.

768
01:09:06,303 --> 01:09:09,303
Stopping people from feeling that they've been left out or something.

769
01:09:10,303 --> 01:09:11,303
I don't know, I'm not totally sure.

770
01:09:11,303 --> 01:09:16,303
You know, anonymous people can't show up as their digital identity or something.

771
01:09:17,303 --> 01:09:20,303
So on the one hand there's that, but then I think there's a contradictory.

772
01:09:22,303 --> 01:09:26,303
The point of a conference is to get something done.

773
01:09:27,303 --> 01:09:33,303
And how can nothing get done with this concept of no decisions being made?

774
01:09:34,303 --> 01:09:35,303
Yeah, the whole point is that.

775
01:09:36,303 --> 01:09:38,303
Right, what else would we be doing there?

776
01:09:39,303 --> 01:09:40,303
It's an implicit process.

777
01:09:41,303 --> 01:09:43,303
Yeah, right, of course.

778
01:09:44,303 --> 01:09:47,303
And so there's lots of grounds for criticism.

779
01:09:48,303 --> 01:09:51,303
And also just grounds for just kind of foolishness because you're trapped, right.

780
01:09:52,303 --> 01:09:55,303
You don't want to make a decision.

781
01:09:56,303 --> 01:10:01,303
At the same time it would be pointless to achieve nothing at the conference.

782
01:10:02,303 --> 01:10:03,303
So, you know, I don't know.

783
01:10:04,303 --> 01:10:08,303
That's something that always bothered me about the mission.

784
01:10:08,303 --> 01:10:12,303
I mean, clearly, so I think clearly the mission is sort of like an almost,

785
01:10:13,303 --> 01:10:19,303
kind of, I don't think it's like a wink-wink, like don't decide anything, you know,

786
01:10:20,303 --> 01:10:21,303
but secretly do.

787
01:10:22,303 --> 01:10:25,303
I don't think that's the case, but I do think that there is this kind of vague hope

788
01:10:26,303 --> 01:10:28,303
that it's just sort of like bring everyone in the room and hope,

789
01:10:29,303 --> 01:10:32,303
and just kind of hope that something will happen.

790
01:10:33,303 --> 01:10:36,303
And so the last, the Montreal conference, everyone took it very seriously

791
01:10:36,303 --> 01:10:37,303
and I think it went great.

792
01:10:38,303 --> 01:10:43,303
And I think there was a lot of happiness produced, but a lot of understanding.

793
01:10:44,303 --> 01:10:47,303
And everyone got to benefit, I think, and now it's all like on YouTube

794
01:10:48,303 --> 01:10:52,303
and people can benefit if they wish by watching those things.

795
01:10:53,303 --> 01:10:55,303
And I hope that that will, that's what I expect to happen.

796
01:10:56,303 --> 01:10:57,303
To answer your question, that's what I expect to happen again,

797
01:10:58,303 --> 01:11:01,303
that there will be more happiness and there will be more benefit.

798
01:11:01,303 --> 01:11:07,303
But there is this looming contradiction of what exactly is the point of all this.

799
01:11:08,303 --> 01:11:16,303
And I don't, I really, I would, you know, I have a lot of ideas on Bitcoin's
governance

800
01:11:17,303 --> 01:11:23,303
and I don't know exactly what, I mean, I'm not sure what the future holds for that.

801
01:11:24,303 --> 01:11:27,303
But this contradiction bothers me and I don't, I hope it bothers other people

802
01:11:28,303 --> 01:11:30,303
because it doesn't really make sense, does it?

803
01:11:31,303 --> 01:11:38,303
Yeah, but maybe you should see it like, you know, because as far as you understood,

804
01:11:39,303 --> 01:11:43,303
people were, in the past, were shouting at each other on forums.

805
01:11:44,303 --> 01:11:49,303
And this is a way of getting people together in one room, one big room,

806
01:11:50,303 --> 01:11:52,303
and to listen to each other.

807
01:11:53,303 --> 01:11:56,303
And of course there is an implicit process at the least.

808
01:11:57,303 --> 01:11:59,303
And so, I mean, yeah.

809
01:12:00,303 --> 01:12:02,303
Yeah, I think it will be very helpful.

810
01:12:03,303 --> 01:12:06,303
I just, I kind of think we should just drop the, you know,

811
01:12:07,303 --> 01:12:08,303
why is it saying that no decisions will be made?

812
01:12:09,303 --> 01:12:12,303
I think it should just say, decide whatever you like.

813
01:12:13,303 --> 01:12:16,303
And don't feel like you have to wait, you don't have to wait for the conference.

814
01:12:17,303 --> 01:12:19,303
You can decide earlier or you can decide afterward.

815
01:12:20,303 --> 01:12:21,303
I mean, what difference does it make, right?

816
01:12:22,303 --> 01:12:24,303
I mean, it's all arbitrary anyway, there's no leader.

817
01:12:24,303 --> 01:12:29,303
So, it's kind of like, you can make a decision, any decisions you like,

818
01:12:30,303 --> 01:12:33,303
before the conference, and then you can make any decisions you like after,

819
01:12:34,303 --> 01:12:35,303
but during the conference is the one time that you can't.

820
01:12:36,303 --> 01:12:37,303
Like, what does that even mean?

821
01:12:38,303 --> 01:12:41,303
Like, who are they even speaking for when they say no decisions will be made?

822
01:12:42,303 --> 01:12:43,303
Like, it doesn't make any sense to me.

823
01:12:44,303 --> 01:12:46,303
So, I mean, it was a nice attempt to make people feel good,

824
01:12:47,303 --> 01:12:49,303
but obviously I want people to feel good.

825
01:12:50,303 --> 01:12:52,303
I don't know what that's supposed to be.

826
01:12:53,303 --> 01:12:54,303
That's not really anything.

827
01:12:55,303 --> 01:12:58,303
So, I think the contradiction, only one, we can only have one,

828
01:12:59,303 --> 01:13:00,303
and I think we should drop that.

829
01:13:01,303 --> 01:13:03,303
That weird, that looming kind of threat,

830
01:13:04,303 --> 01:13:06,303
that you shouldn't be able to decide anything.

831
01:13:07,303 --> 01:13:08,303
I don't get that.

832
01:13:09,303 --> 01:13:12,303
So, that's what I, but I think, I expect the conference will do the same.

833
01:13:13,303 --> 01:13:16,303
It will be, there will be progress made on people,

834
01:13:16,303 --> 01:13:19,303
there will be progress made on people understanding,

835
01:13:20,303 --> 01:13:22,303
people making their concerns known,

836
01:13:23,303 --> 01:13:25,303
and so that's going to be a really great thing, I think.

837
01:13:26,303 --> 01:13:27,303
So, I look forward to it a lot,

838
01:13:28,303 --> 01:13:30,303
and a lot of cool people will be there, and it will be an opportunity.

839
01:13:31,303 --> 01:13:32,303
I mean, when you talk to someone online,

840
01:13:33,303 --> 01:13:34,303
you don't really get to know them,

841
01:13:35,303 --> 01:13:38,303
but if you just spend 10 minutes with them in a bar,

842
01:13:39,303 --> 01:13:41,303
they will, like, kind of be your friend,

843
01:13:42,303 --> 01:13:45,303
and there's not really a lot of friendship in the Bitcoin world, right?

844
01:13:46,303 --> 01:13:48,303
There's not really a lot of, like, teamwork or anything.

845
01:13:49,303 --> 01:13:52,303
It's just kind of, people just, it's part of the decentralization.

846
01:13:53,303 --> 01:13:54,303
People just kind of show up.

847
01:13:55,303 --> 01:13:58,303
They hear about Bitcoin, they just kind of show up from everywhere,

848
01:13:59,303 --> 01:14:04,303
and it's nice to, because human beings don't really work that way,

849
01:14:05,303 --> 01:14:10,303
so it's nice to return this to something where the human brain

850
01:14:11,303 --> 01:14:13,303
will actually be able to do something productive.

851
01:14:13,303 --> 01:14:14,303
So, I look forward to it a lot.

852
01:14:15,303 --> 01:14:16,303
I think it will be great.

853
01:14:17,303 --> 01:14:20,303
Do you think whatever ideas come up,

854
01:14:21,303 --> 01:14:25,303
it should trickle down to some sort of decision sooner or later, right?

855
01:14:26,303 --> 01:14:27,303
One would hope.

856
01:14:28,303 --> 01:14:29,303
I mean, what if that didn't happen, right?

857
01:14:30,303 --> 01:14:31,303
That would be the best time.

858
01:14:32,303 --> 01:14:33,303
Yeah, that would be the best time.

859
01:14:34,303 --> 01:14:35,303
Sort of like, you know, yeah.

860
01:14:36,303 --> 01:14:37,303
But anyway, nice talking to you guys.

861
01:14:38,303 --> 01:14:39,303
Thanks a lot.

862
01:14:40,303 --> 01:14:41,303
We should definitely do this again.

863
01:14:42,303 --> 01:14:43,303
Yeah.

864
01:14:44,303 --> 01:14:45,303
Thanks.

865
01:14:46,303 --> 01:14:48,303
Paul, thank you for answering our questions.

866
01:14:49,303 --> 01:14:50,303
My pleasure.

867
01:14:51,303 --> 01:14:52,303
And we'll hope you have a good journey.

868
01:14:53,303 --> 01:14:54,303
Thank you.

869
01:14:55,303 --> 01:14:59,303
And please give Corné, if you meet him, a clap on the shoulder,

870
01:15:00,303 --> 01:15:01,303
if I say it right.

871
01:15:02,303 --> 01:15:03,303
Yeah.

872
01:15:04,303 --> 01:15:05,303
So, Yanis, you have anything?

873
01:15:06,303 --> 01:15:07,303
Head on the back sometimes.

874
01:15:08,303 --> 01:15:09,303
Yeah, yeah.

875
01:15:10,303 --> 01:15:11,303
No, yeah.

876
01:15:12,303 --> 01:15:13,303
Thank you very much.

877
01:15:14,303 --> 01:15:15,303
Have a good trip there.

878
01:15:16,303 --> 01:15:18,303
And hopefully you get to share some good ideas with all the people there.

879
01:15:19,303 --> 01:15:20,303
Hopefully.

880
01:15:21,303 --> 01:15:22,303
Some sort of decision later on.

881
01:15:23,303 --> 01:15:24,303
All right.

882
01:15:25,303 --> 01:15:26,303
Thanks, guys.

883
01:15:27,303 --> 01:15:28,303
See you later.

884
01:15:29,303 --> 01:15:30,303
Okay.

885
01:15:31,303 --> 01:15:32,303
Have a good time.