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There I am. I made it. And as usual, I had to join and leave a few times before it would

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work, but I guess no one else except for me has this problem. Anyway, here we are. I hope

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it'll be another great space. A lot of news of the week. I made a tiny list. We'll wait

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for our esteemed guest, Anthony Riard. I'm not exactly sure how French that is pronounced,

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but we'll see. We'll get it from the horse's mouth.

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We're going to have a legend, Blaise Pascal. He's going to probably try to bet against us on

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whether or not God exists. No, I'm just kidding. He won't do that. But in a past life, I was a

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statistician, and of course, oh, my memory is a little hazy on this, but I think he sort of

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invented probability or something. Anyway, very important guy in the world of probability of one

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kind or another. So we'll talk about lightning. I mean, lightning is a very important thing for

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us to talk about, because I'm not exactly sure how we should, you know, we Bitcoiners should

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handle it as a topic, because it does seem to be sucking all the air out of the room. Oh,

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hello. Welcome. Welcome. It usually takes people when they become a speaker, they're like on a

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delay, and then they get on delayed. And then you are muted. Also, keep that in mind.

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Okay, do you hear me? Well, yes. Okay, cool. Perfect.

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Oh, so you're super, super French. So it's really pronounced like, yes, very differently than

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Anthony Riard, something like that.

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No, no, no. In French, it would be like Antoine Riard, but I'm fine, Mike.

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French has the best Ocarina of Time randomizer speedrunners. I'm not sure if you are aware of that.

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I don't know why that is.

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The colliders, like the physical colliders, like undergrounds. That's what you're mentioning.

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No, the people who play, who play video games and race to complete the fastest.

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that is The colliders like the physical lighters like undergrounds.

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That's what you're mentioning or

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Now the people who play who play video games of race to complete the

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fastest

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Oh, yeah, I'm not supposed be doing video game games.

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Okay, well, in any event, so my thoughts on the Lightning Network

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are, like, what exactly has it become?

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it's... I was very supportive of it in

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2015, I even wrote, anyone can look this up.

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I had this peer -to -peer oracle thing, and I thought, oh, this would be great.

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We'll have this Lightning Network for that.

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I wrote a Lightning Network, back in 2015, long ago, was like, okay, I'll write a

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version of the Lightning Network for this project.

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I was very enthusiastic about it back then.

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Then I

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kind of didn't really pay that much attention to it for a while.

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And then there's one story I've told before that I'll try to quickly say again.

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But I was at, I think I was at an archipelago where there were many Bitcoiners.

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This was before it was a fully large block thing.

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wasn't that long.

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was maybe like, it

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kind of like went in waves.

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No, it was after that because what had happened was it had gone like full large block

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and then it had kind of like retreated back to just being like very neutral on crypto

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and there was a lot of just like crazy stuff.

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I like Monero there.

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It's a lot of just like anti -state people were there.

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a bunch of people, I think it was, I think it was wallet of Satoshi.

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Or maybe it was blue wallet.

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I can't remember.

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think it was wallet of Satoshi, though, I should really get my story straight.

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But the point of the story is this, that people are going around and they're like,

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lightning is amazing.

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It's great. has no, no fees.

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They said no fees, none.

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I was like, what?

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they said, has no fees and it's like super fast and it works great.

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then someone, they peer pressured me into downloading the app.

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Everyone was like, you got to download this app.

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I was like, should I really do this?

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this app to my phone.

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And I was like, without like looking into it.

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I was like, whatever, I'm having a good time.

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So I download the

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app and then they send me Bitcoin.

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And then I said something like, oh, but I didn't open the channel to anyone.

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And then they were like, what?

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And then I was like,

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is it lightning?

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Or is it custodial?

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then all these groups, it's sort of like this room full of people or this

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crowd of maybe like 10 or 12 people.

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were like, it was clear they had no idea what I was talking about.

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And that was the first moment when I was like, I don't know like

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where this road is going to lead because, and you see this now where people,

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know, they use the word lightning to refer to something that is just a client server

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type thing.

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Anyway, fast forward to now, where I kind of think that it is like become

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almost a menace to Bitcoin even where I don't

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know,

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you know, but I do think like people are just so stuck on it.

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You even have people like Taj, Dreyja, who are just kind of trying to say like, we

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can like do many, many other different things at once.

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Yeah. don't know.

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It's hard to What do you think?

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Yeah, I think we should go

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back in time and like, if you are like very OG, like you might remember about something

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called BitcoinJ, like the Bitcoin Java library.

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I do remember it,

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Yes, so it was a great one.

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It's been used by a lot of like early service in the Bitcoin space, being like user

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friendly wallets.

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I think around 2012 or 2013, had some kind of implementation of micro -payment

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channels.

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It was very rudimentary or very basic payment

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channel. was one way.

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It no, Yes.

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Yeah.

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was like, you know, there was not like infinite lifetime of channel in sense

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of it was expiring after like, I don't know, some one week or month or something like

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this. like, so they were at this.

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back, back around 2013, 2014, no one

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was really interested in In that kind of very simple, very basic

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payment channel technology.

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mean, micro payment channel stays to sleep in the corner of

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BitVentistry. in 2015, we stopped to have Lightning, like you were seeing.

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and Lightning was just like a lot of my tuning term of payment channels kind of

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technology. In between there was some interesting ideas, if I remember correctly,

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Adam Spark, where everyone does have a payment channel with some trusted parties, and

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trusted parties doing the cross payments across all

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the users of the app.

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2015, have like many papers published for the first time, if

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I get the date correctly.

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know, suddenly we have like this network of payment channels,

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trustless, multi

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-op payments with a Chelsea, all that kind things.

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People were excited.

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think every time, the first time you read the liking papers, it's very brilliant

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from a distributed systems perspective.

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but like

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2016,

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people were working on implementation, and 18, started to have first maintenance usage

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of Lightning,

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and then we started to encounter a lot of low -level and users

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issues. like you say,

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one of the fundamental issues people start to realize is all the liquidity

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kind of management you have to do on Lightning to keep your trend balanced, or to

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have in -bound or outbound liquidity, function of which way you're trying to do payments

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in the network, or like being

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connected to some kind of like always online,

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peers or contemporaries to get access to the current networks and not being too far

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from like other people.

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So that's more like users kind of issues and on the other end we started to have like a

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lot of like more security

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and robustness issues in terms of key management, in terms of how lightning

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is integrating with the base layers, how your transactions are related on

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base layer of Bitcoin.

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And all this is not necessarily secure and so so

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the thing is like, like, sounds like

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we have like this, we're trying to build a rocket to go to the moon, but we

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have like, we have done things which is like, brilliant, but sounds like very

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complex, and like, instead of something which has been

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like, instead of some different cycles where people could have used

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micro payment channels or could have used Eman's box and we would have learned a lot as

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a community in terms of signal layers designs, terms of signal layers operations and

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all that kind things.

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So you were asking me like

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is my sentiment and where we stand right now in terms of Bitcoin's regulators?

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think we start to be more in this phase of,

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you know, there is no silver bullet in engineering.

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There is no

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no perfect systems and everyone of them does have kind of

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limitations. And people start to be far more aware about limitations now.

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that's, in my sense, that's where we start right now.

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right.

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think, of course, what people are pretty interested in is the

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email that you wrote, and I am going to just give you my understanding of it,

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should probably have spent more time making sure that it's right.

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But it goes something like this.

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The

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idea behind Lightning is there's the hash pathway,

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is that the payment goes through and then there's the timeout, which is that something

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has gone wrong and we need to hit Ctrl Z and undo everything.

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So the idea is that the hash,

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when the timeout,

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know, until a certain point, you use the hash, and then after that, you use the

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timeout.

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the flaw that you have pointed out is that someone can just wait

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for the timeout, and at that point, they can either, they can cause either of

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the two to

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happen at will by just increasing the fee with some kind of like any kind of thing.

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It doesn't even matter.

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It could be child -paced for parent.

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could be anything.

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could just be them paying it in some kind of multi -input thing.

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So they have total control over whether the hash...

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It seems as though it's one or the other.

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but they have total controllable, happens.

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since the Lightning Network has made these people sitting in the middle, that is brutal

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for the intermediary who can be like surrounded and like they can do the hash, pulling

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the money away from them and the time lock pulling the refund away.

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they lose someone who's just sitting in the middle will just

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lose all of their money basically.

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it's very, it's quite a rational attack.

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Yes. You do have an upper bound on like, you know, when you do open a channel, you're

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negotiating pre -series, pre -series partners with your contemporaries.

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And one of them is like max, ICS in flight.

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hashrate in flight.

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there is

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some like in conditions are very conservative because I think it's like 20 or 10 % of

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the chain capacity.

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But like some of them it's like 100%.

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So yes,

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practice, in the worst case, depending

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depending on the implementation default, you might use all your money.

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Yes, and this is the poor, innocent third party who's not even buying or selling

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anything, they're just routing the payments, which is of rough.

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then even if the inflight amount is low, the channels are themselves

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kind of

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lot of

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are get a lot

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of lot of money money money to to to to of

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money to

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work out, if the people are just determined to be very mean to you, you have to

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uncooperative close. then when you uncooperative close, it's your money that is locked

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for the two weeks or whatever it is.

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And they get the money immediately.

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sort of adds insult to injury.

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Yeah. Which is kind of wrong.

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Yeah, that's

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one of the most...

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I think you were underliking one of the worst

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issues of flagging from a routing, now it's

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perspective, which is like, you know, how do you know that this random guy opening

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a channel with

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you is going to be like,

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not even like doing security attacks, even like being, do a lot of payments

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or use liquidity in a way which is like interesting to you compared

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to the more global liquidity market in a sense of, know,

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how can you ensure that the scarce liquidity you executing is

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like allocated on part or enterprise, which are going to guarantee

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you or at least like at least yield

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to a high rate of fees, option fees.

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these options, the routing fees, have to be high, like, unshaved fees, the worst

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case, if you have two first -class.

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Yes. know, thing that, you know, Joff,

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of mine, Fiatjof, creator of an hostel, not like the literal creator,

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but big... But anyway,

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he pointed out to me for the first time that if people just disagree over what the fee

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rate is, they will be on cooperative close because the channel won't be able

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I think that's a very

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interesting question.

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I that's that's a

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and then the reaction I thought was very disappointing where there was a lot of like

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cope and even like Peter Todd, for example,

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Peter Todd is sort of rival of mine.

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he started to say like, well, this doesn't matter because you can like, just be careful

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about who you open a channel

241
00:17:57,663 --> 00:17:58,603
with or something?

242
00:17:59,283 --> 00:18:04,163
I thought there was a very disappointing answer that is maybe anti -SipherPunk, kind of

243
00:18:04,163 --> 00:18:07,803
like anti the point of the lightning, like why have all these HTLCs, why have all this

244
00:18:07,803 --> 00:18:11,063
stuff at all if you're going to be like, take that out of the industry?

245
00:18:11,843 --> 00:18:17,478
mean, yeah, here are some

246
00:18:17,658 --> 00:18:23,078
Some of ecosystem elements and sense of we have done like this whole like we've read

247
00:18:23,078 --> 00:18:28,558
the works of designing this whole like decentralized network of main channels like and

248
00:18:28,558 --> 00:18:33,658
what like in partition are quite complex and self you know you need to make of the

249
00:18:33,658 --> 00:18:37,238
older blocks when

250
00:18:37,293 --> 00:18:42,713
there is like some transactions, some one of what like when you're opening your

251
00:18:42,713 --> 00:18:47,033
channels, need to monitor the funding transactions, need to monitor there is no reorg,

252
00:18:48,013 --> 00:18:53,513
you need to monitor there is no non -copyrightive or like Revocate closed by your

253
00:18:53,513 --> 00:18:56,993
contemporary, if there is one of them, you should be able to finish

254
00:18:57,108 --> 00:19:01,268
this, rewocate stakes, timely fations.

255
00:19:02,108 --> 00:19:07,608
For doing so, need keep like, you need keep key bumping values, you need to keep keys

256
00:19:07,608 --> 00:19:12,988
on a hot server, you need to be on like 24 hours, 24 hours, seven days, on seven days.

257
00:19:13,468 --> 00:19:16,828
We have put like this crazy amount of engineering at the end of the day to say,

258
00:19:17,604 --> 00:19:22,844
in the worst case, let's just assume you trust your companies, let's just assume

259
00:19:22,844 --> 00:19:28,504
open chains with people in your web of friends

260
00:19:28,504 --> 00:19:30,164
or social side circles.

261
00:19:31,244 --> 00:19:36,124
But we are completely moving away from, like you were saying, cyberpunk kind of hit us.

262
00:19:37,979 --> 00:19:42,979
And then you did kind of a very, you did certainly one of the most interesting things

263
00:19:42,979 --> 00:19:43,979
anyone has ever done.

264
00:19:45,379 --> 00:19:51,059
You probably should been on the most influential crypto list instead of me,

265
00:19:51,079 --> 00:19:55,219
maybe. mean, maybe not that, I don't know how interesting, but what you did is you said

266
00:19:55,219 --> 00:19:56,554
that you were going to sort

267
00:19:56,594 --> 00:19:58,694
of step back from working on Lightning.

268
00:19:58,954 --> 00:20:00,174
sort of leave the...

269
00:20:00,174 --> 00:20:05,394
Because to me, I think this is kind of a tangential issue, but there does seem to be

270
00:20:05,394 --> 00:20:10,734
like this. There's this kind of cult -like psychodrama that's happening

271
00:20:10,734 --> 00:20:16,369
in Bitcoin, where I think there are these different people, and some of them are

272
00:20:16,449 --> 00:20:21,269
just like the marketing department or if you prefer you could call it a kind of weird

273
00:20:21,269 --> 00:20:24,709
death cult which is kind of also what I kind of think that it is.

274
00:20:25,129 --> 00:20:30,969
what I'm getting at is you have these people who are like the priests and like

275
00:20:30,969 --> 00:20:35,529
these sort of enforcers and they are just like

276
00:20:36,965 --> 00:20:39,565
for any kind of nonconformity.

277
00:20:39,785 --> 00:20:45,745
to have someone who is a technical person, a developer, leave is honestly

278
00:20:45,745 --> 00:20:50,805
a shocking thing, I think, to people.

279
00:20:50,945 --> 00:20:52,145
It's very, very unusual.

280
00:20:52,545 --> 00:20:53,825
And some might say inspiring.

281
00:20:54,125 --> 00:20:56,000
Some might say just like

282
00:20:56,060 --> 00:20:58,240
some other word, I don't know, but I'm not sure.

283
00:20:58,780 --> 00:21:00,060
That's not really what I'm trying convey.

284
00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:05,000
What I'm trying convey is it's very notable and unusual that and it's like it's you've

285
00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:07,000
broken from the herd to some extent.

286
00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:13,460
What a lot of people do is they just stay in Lightning, they farm up their cred,

287
00:21:14,100 --> 00:21:15,815
and then they can go to like a VC

288
00:21:15,895 --> 00:21:20,575
and start like a lightning startup or something and you have done a very completely

289
00:21:20,575 --> 00:21:26,535
different thing. Seemingly to know direct benefit to you and it does make it, it

290
00:21:26,535 --> 00:21:31,455
gives you an enormous amount of credibility in some way and I just think, and then

291
00:21:31,455 --> 00:21:35,631
my friend messaged you about coming on the

292
00:21:35,671 --> 00:21:36,751
show and I was like, well, this is great.

293
00:21:36,991 --> 00:21:41,251
guy's got to be one of the most interesting people in Bitcoin.

294
00:21:41,571 --> 00:21:47,191
that's just so I was wondering if you had any thoughts on that and what the last part

295
00:21:47,191 --> 00:21:51,311
of the email where you say that, well, you're sort of stepping back from Lightning

296
00:21:51,311 --> 00:21:54,911
Development or however you prefer to phrase it.

297
00:21:56,326 --> 00:21:59,466
yeah. Well, thanks for your work, for your words.

298
00:22:01,086 --> 00:22:06,926
well, I would take a point here to say like, you know, my peers working on

299
00:22:06,926 --> 00:22:09,446
NG, Eclair, collecting,

300
00:22:10,746 --> 00:22:15,146
LDK, I respect those people, They are like technically competent,

301
00:22:16,241 --> 00:22:17,861
do a sense of dedication,

302
00:22:19,161 --> 00:22:21,541
they're working hard on it.

303
00:22:22,761 --> 00:22:24,581
on the other hand,

304
00:22:26,201 --> 00:22:31,621
it's not the major secret issue I've been here, found unliking and

305
00:22:31,621 --> 00:22:35,076
it sounds like we

306
00:22:35,116 --> 00:22:38,476
do have all the issues with challenge timing.

307
00:22:38,616 --> 00:22:43,896
We do have issues with food and food, and do have issues

308
00:22:43,896 --> 00:22:46,536
with eclipse and time deletion attacks.

309
00:22:46,796 --> 00:22:51,856
we have all those ping attacks that we're trying to fix in Bitcoin Core.

310
00:22:51,856 --> 00:22:54,892
know and we do have like key management is very

311
00:22:54,932 --> 00:23:00,812
hard on writing because you need that kind of intermediary between cold and hot

312
00:23:00,812 --> 00:23:06,572
wallets. And we have also all liquidity graphing that people are

313
00:23:06,572 --> 00:23:12,572
starting to talk this year more the amenities but that we were aware of like

314
00:23:12,572 --> 00:23:14,692
already years ago and you

315
00:23:14,707 --> 00:23:20,527
you know at some point you're like that's where like few of the people

316
00:23:20,527 --> 00:23:25,347
might diverge from other developers where are we doing the work of like

317
00:23:25,347 --> 00:23:31,107
trying to have like these peer -to -peer or cypher -prone kind of network and

318
00:23:31,107 --> 00:23:34,522
like why are we working so hard you know

319
00:23:34,702 --> 00:23:39,882
Why are we working like, I think I've been working on liking since five years now, like

320
00:23:39,882 --> 00:23:40,782
since 2018?

321
00:23:42,122 --> 00:23:44,162
you are like, why are we working so hard?

322
00:23:44,362 --> 00:23:49,302
Why are we like spending nights reading cards and sharing like, software works, users

323
00:23:49,302 --> 00:23:51,522
can like deploy it smoothly and like,

324
00:23:53,442 --> 00:23:54,337
you know, people's

325
00:23:54,337 --> 00:23:59,197
funds are secure and they can do experiment with it and they can run like in us and go

326
00:23:59,197 --> 00:24:03,377
to sleep at night with other funds being like stolen in the middle, you know, in the

327
00:24:03,377 --> 00:24:04,017
middle of the night.

328
00:24:05,057 --> 00:24:09,157
it's more at some point where like, okay, guys, I appreciate you.

329
00:24:09,277 --> 00:24:14,153
I appreciate the hacking community, but this is not risky to me, you

330
00:24:15,713 --> 00:24:20,833
I fully understand people, they do have

331
00:24:20,833 --> 00:24:26,513
instant dives. It's very...

332
00:24:26,513 --> 00:24:31,893
as like this mark where it's conventional wisdom

333
00:24:31,893 --> 00:24:33,293
and

334
00:24:33,968 --> 00:24:39,748
And if you're a VC, you're a Bitcoin or even more a

335
00:24:39,748 --> 00:24:41,848
VC and you're this and you're startups,

336
00:24:43,428 --> 00:24:46,388
you're going to be fired by your LPs for doing this.

337
00:24:47,548 --> 00:24:48,748
You're buying EBM.

338
00:24:49,768 --> 00:24:53,268
No one has been fired to buy EDM,

339
00:24:53,783 --> 00:24:57,703
like we say, more markets, traditional markets.

340
00:24:58,643 --> 00:25:04,063
it sounds to me like we have reached these points where some truth or

341
00:25:04,063 --> 00:25:08,683
saying some technical statements

342
00:25:08,683 --> 00:25:13,599
that will cost a lot of money for people who like invade

343
00:25:14,019 --> 00:25:17,559
their investment TVs or write down their investments.

344
00:25:17,879 --> 00:25:20,059
so people are just like, well,

345
00:25:21,339 --> 00:25:25,299
I mean, well, let's just say, okay, we might have security issues.

346
00:25:26,399 --> 00:25:28,199
it's not great, but that's fine.

347
00:25:28,379 --> 00:25:29,179
can deal with it.

348
00:25:29,399 --> 00:25:33,339
let's just take the bag of shit and give it to

349
00:25:33,694 --> 00:25:37,394
future generations, like 5, 10, 15 years from now.

350
00:25:38,354 --> 00:25:43,974
very sadly, we have seen this with internet already in a sense of mass of security

351
00:25:43,974 --> 00:25:49,634
issues which are plugging internet today in terms of notifications, terms

352
00:25:49,634 --> 00:25:52,814
of user credentials, in terms of dinner of service.

353
00:25:53,014 --> 00:25:53,229
We're

354
00:25:56,709 --> 00:25:58,229
So, yeah,

355
00:25:59,829 --> 00:26:00,629
I made the joke.

356
00:26:02,049 --> 00:26:07,909
It's quite, this is sort of like the darkest side of like the

357
00:26:07,909 --> 00:26:12,909
capitalist corporate model of like the company has

358
00:26:13,044 --> 00:26:18,624
direct source of knowledge of something not working out and then they just decide to

359
00:26:18,624 --> 00:26:20,064
obscure that information?

360
00:26:21,244 --> 00:26:24,024
No, think markets are great.

361
00:26:24,124 --> 00:26:26,344
mean, we're... Who overall?

362
00:26:27,344 --> 00:26:30,724
Yeah, overall, are like...

363
00:26:30,724 --> 00:26:32,860
I think we're key to...

364
00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:38,320
most of the people today are in the world of, it's not very true, but

365
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:43,780
if you the key to be born in a liberal democracy, we'd like to...

366
00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:44,980
course, I agree with that.

367
00:26:46,620 --> 00:26:52,540
I have a vision that involves Kayekean prediction markets taking over

368
00:26:52,540 --> 00:26:52,640
the

369
00:26:53,535 --> 00:26:55,315
I'm very pro -market.

370
00:26:55,875 --> 00:27:01,795
mean, moment ago you just said people worried about invalidating the

371
00:27:01,795 --> 00:27:07,695
investment thesis might not want to speak honestly

372
00:27:07,695 --> 00:27:11,295
about what they believe, which I'm just saying that definitely is.

373
00:27:11,615 --> 00:27:12,490
That's actually

374
00:27:12,530 --> 00:27:18,270
a problem that we don't have competing, we should have real markets for goods

375
00:27:18,270 --> 00:27:22,250
or capital goods and we should also have prediction markets on what will work out and

376
00:27:22,250 --> 00:27:26,370
if we did then the prediction markets would have revealed the truth long ago which is

377
00:27:26,370 --> 00:27:28,410
like kind of a tangential point.

378
00:27:28,970 --> 00:27:32,090
markets for like, like

379
00:27:32,305 --> 00:27:38,225
least like, different ideas or like, this culture about like,

380
00:27:38,305 --> 00:27:43,025
constantly and very thawky about like, keep questioning your investment it is.

381
00:27:43,425 --> 00:27:45,305
it's very good to have an investment it is.

382
00:27:45,965 --> 00:27:51,445
Yeah, it's very good every day to test it and like, Well, I think a lot of people will

383
00:27:51,445 --> 00:27:52,065
want, mean, there's

384
00:27:52,121 --> 00:27:55,281
a couple of different directions that we could take the conversation.

385
00:27:57,121 --> 00:27:59,981
But I think what a lot of people would wonder is they would say, well, he's going to

386
00:27:59,981 --> 00:28:01,501
quit and then do what?

387
00:28:01,841 --> 00:28:05,501
And did you have like something else in mind, or were you just going to like take some

388
00:28:05,501 --> 00:28:08,321
time and kind of gather some thoughts?

389
00:28:08,461 --> 00:28:11,721
Like when you say, we have this big long list of problems,

390
00:28:12,456 --> 00:28:16,256
You don't really feel it's too loose of time.

391
00:28:16,756 --> 00:28:16,936
Yes.

392
00:28:18,356 --> 00:28:23,676
do think we do have more general issue in Bitcoin developments and

393
00:28:23,676 --> 00:28:29,536
infrastructure's We have small

394
00:28:29,536 --> 00:28:31,751
number of, I would

395
00:28:32,111 --> 00:28:36,151
would say, good reviewers, or like very adversarial mindsets.

396
00:28:36,351 --> 00:28:41,191
Like, you are coaching Peter Todd, which is like a very good one, incompetent one.

397
00:28:42,631 --> 00:28:48,511
But we do have like, in my test, two small crores

398
00:28:48,511 --> 00:28:51,431
of like adversarial thinkers and people like

399
00:28:51,566 --> 00:28:56,726
very trying to break big consistence for our own goods and keep our money safe

400
00:28:56,726 --> 00:29:02,406
at on the other hand, do have a lot

401
00:29:02,406 --> 00:29:08,226
of developers who just want to develop cards, deploy it, develop more cards, add

402
00:29:08,226 --> 00:29:10,826
more cards, add more complexity in we are unlike

403
00:29:11,382 --> 00:29:15,062
like, we are, you know, it's an unstable balance.

404
00:29:15,342 --> 00:29:19,302
And some point you like, you have like an increasing surface of cards and you have like

405
00:29:19,302 --> 00:29:24,082
an increasing, you have an increasing complex systems for

406
00:29:24,082 --> 00:29:29,722
like, for like, nearly constants or even decreasing numbers of

407
00:29:29,722 --> 00:29:31,197
adjustable thinkers and people like

408
00:29:31,197 --> 00:29:36,037
doing their security maintenance and working on the patch and fix at night.

409
00:29:37,077 --> 00:29:42,337
Yes, spending more time, but how can we have more security talents working on Bitcoin

410
00:29:42,337 --> 00:29:44,377
and adjustable thinkers?

411
00:29:46,337 --> 00:29:51,012
Yeah. I've actually suspected for a while that it's becoming a

412
00:29:51,292 --> 00:29:56,732
make -work program because what do you want if you're a developer, you want

413
00:29:56,732 --> 00:30:01,472
the problems to get worse and you want them to be something that only an expert who's

414
00:30:01,472 --> 00:30:04,392
been working on the problem for years can solve.

415
00:30:04,392 --> 00:30:10,152
So you kind of like want it to be digging a huge hole that you want to be digging

416
00:30:10,152 --> 00:30:10,752
it and then

417
00:30:10,828 --> 00:30:13,008
you're the expert on the hole and then blah, blah, blah.

418
00:30:13,068 --> 00:30:18,388
But I was thinking more about what you personally, mean, say that you, at the end of

419
00:30:18,388 --> 00:30:21,468
the email where you pointed this out, you said that you were sort of going to

420
00:30:23,528 --> 00:30:25,368
stop focusing on the Lightning Network.

421
00:30:25,648 --> 00:30:27,348
I was wondering, in particular,

422
00:30:29,048 --> 00:30:30,348
do you actually have

423
00:30:30,643 --> 00:30:34,543
something else you are interested in?

424
00:30:34,703 --> 00:30:35,943
you have anything look around?

425
00:30:36,763 --> 00:30:41,503
Even I don't have any big investment to do,

426
00:30:41,863 --> 00:30:46,983
I've been working on liking and Bitcoin Core at the time.

427
00:30:47,783 --> 00:30:50,443
Bouncing from liking, implementation, multi -g

428
00:30:50,658 --> 00:30:54,578
back to Bitcoin Core, bringing a lot of things back in terms of mempool design,

429
00:30:54,758 --> 00:30:59,438
transaction delay, still involving some peers in Bitcoin Core.

430
00:31:04,698 --> 00:31:08,258
But even Bitcoin Core, it's a lot of work.

431
00:31:08,598 --> 00:31:10,018
Things are moving slowly.

432
00:31:11,453 --> 00:31:15,353
yeah, still like doing kind of...

433
00:31:17,513 --> 00:31:19,793
Yeah, I mean like...

434
00:31:19,793 --> 00:31:21,673
I mean Bitcoin Core is enough.

435
00:31:22,293 --> 00:31:27,333
my god. It's a very interesting system, it's a very interesting system, but I've done

436
00:31:27,333 --> 00:31:30,033
quite the wrong sense of even into

437
00:31:30,669 --> 00:31:32,729
you're like, okay, I know every subsystem.

438
00:31:34,309 --> 00:31:37,009
So yeah, it's more like taking a bit of time off.

439
00:31:37,409 --> 00:31:41,089
You have other things to study in engineering.

440
00:31:42,609 --> 00:31:45,029
Machine learning is eating the word.

441
00:31:46,229 --> 00:31:49,629
you're like, okay, it's a good time to like,

442
00:31:49,964 --> 00:31:54,524
is great. When you're already like, practicing Bitcoins, can afford the time to look

443
00:31:54,524 --> 00:31:59,564
like some alts and look on the others like, evolving landscape, technical landscapes

444
00:31:59,564 --> 00:32:05,244
and like, like, you know, like, you were seeing like, some

445
00:32:05,244 --> 00:32:09,719
experts are like making a system more and more complex, to be sure to

446
00:32:09,799 --> 00:32:13,259
get a job or keep being paid to keep digging the hole.

447
00:32:14,339 --> 00:32:18,999
more like, I always mean more like you want to keep system simple and

448
00:32:18,999 --> 00:32:24,759
more learned different matters and different

449
00:32:24,759 --> 00:32:28,719
types of knowledge than browsers keep digging the hole.

450
00:32:29,614 --> 00:32:30,174
sorry, questions.

451
00:32:33,234 --> 00:32:34,214
There's plenty of other things.

452
00:32:34,714 --> 00:32:36,374
A couple of things come to mind.

453
00:32:38,614 --> 00:32:44,434
If someone else made some complaints about whatever, a

454
00:32:44,434 --> 00:32:48,834
flood and loot or whatever, I would imagine some people on Twitter would be like,

455
00:32:49,350 --> 00:32:50,810
you know, it worked for me.

456
00:32:50,870 --> 00:32:54,150
Or they would say like, oh, just use Phoenix or something like that.

457
00:32:54,550 --> 00:32:57,970
And I'm just wondering if you have a kind of a reaction to what this is like, what you

458
00:32:57,970 --> 00:32:58,910
would hear on Twitter.

459
00:32:59,730 --> 00:33:03,730
know, it's not necessarily even what most people believe, but it's just like, this

460
00:33:03,730 --> 00:33:05,430
would be the canned response.

461
00:33:05,890 --> 00:33:07,710
Oh, are saying something like that.

462
00:33:08,390 --> 00:33:09,070
Your question

463
00:33:09,805 --> 00:33:15,345
But just in general if you complain it doesn't have anything to do like any particular

464
00:33:15,345 --> 00:33:21,165
lightning complaint It's just if anyone has a failed Routing or they just say

465
00:33:21,165 --> 00:33:25,485
they they can't get it to work people just say oh, you know use Phoenix or something

466
00:33:27,705 --> 00:33:28,865
And sometimes

467
00:33:28,980 --> 00:33:33,460
people are never sure if it's an issue with the wallets or if it's an with the

468
00:33:33,460 --> 00:33:39,160
protocol. like and loot, what you're cutting is an issue with a protocol and that's not

469
00:33:39,860 --> 00:33:45,580
like I think Phonic is one of the best liking wallet on the market if you're like

470
00:33:45,580 --> 00:33:48,640
looking for something which is non -custodial, but

471
00:33:48,796 --> 00:33:51,376
they cannot solve like fluid and loot.

472
00:33:53,376 --> 00:33:54,456
uh... Yeah, of course.

473
00:33:54,716 --> 00:34:00,456
mean, my favorite is the onboarding problem, enlightening, which is like the least

474
00:34:00,456 --> 00:34:06,116
solvable of all and like the most, like, sort of, uh,

475
00:34:07,456 --> 00:34:07,996
you might say.

476
00:34:09,371 --> 00:34:11,151
things. mentioned Peter Todd.

477
00:34:12,271 --> 00:34:17,831
And if had Jaffa and I, were talking online, and then I said you can't use the

478
00:34:17,831 --> 00:34:23,191
Lightning Network beneath the dust limit, because it doesn't really use the HTLCs,

479
00:34:23,491 --> 00:34:26,051
which I'm of like speaking a little bit.

480
00:34:27,551 --> 00:34:27,651
know,

481
00:34:28,666 --> 00:34:31,166
have to compress it to fit into a tweet.

482
00:34:31,366 --> 00:34:36,626
then Peter Todd replied by like screenshotting a bunch of payments he had made

483
00:34:36,626 --> 00:34:39,866
on the lighting network that were one single Satoshi.

484
00:34:40,526 --> 00:34:41,666
And he just has a screenshot.

485
00:34:42,086 --> 00:34:42,726
I was like, okay,

486
00:34:44,106 --> 00:34:46,146
those didn't use the HTLCs.

487
00:34:46,666 --> 00:34:47,866
And then Fiatjaf and I went

488
00:34:48,241 --> 00:34:54,181
on invited me on his podcast where I was like, there's no H and

489
00:34:54,181 --> 00:34:56,061
then he said, there's no time lock either.

490
00:34:56,341 --> 00:35:01,721
so then we were just kind of baffled by why is Peter Todd replying to me with a

491
00:35:01,721 --> 00:35:05,741
screenshot of one Satoshi payments, that he has quote, made over the Lightning Network

492
00:35:05,741 --> 00:35:07,781
end quote. So I don't know.

493
00:35:07,841 --> 00:35:08,057
That's just

494
00:35:08,057 --> 00:35:09,097
kind like another thing that.

495
00:35:09,717 --> 00:35:14,197
Yeah, think you have like, so you're talking about the issue about one set of sheet

496
00:35:14,197 --> 00:35:16,237
payments on the Nike Newfraer, like, correct.

497
00:35:17,137 --> 00:35:21,237
Yeah. Like someone just forwards those like kind of like for free, just kind of like

498
00:35:21,237 --> 00:35:25,457
hoping that they will get, they don't really use the, the security model of the

499
00:35:25,457 --> 00:35:26,397
Lightning Network. Yes.

500
00:35:26,977 --> 00:35:27,872
all need to use

501
00:35:27,912 --> 00:35:33,572
and the time locks and things yeah That's even like when you're doing like one such

502
00:35:33,572 --> 00:35:39,352
a she likes payments on the night unit works the you are she's parent is not going to

503
00:35:39,352 --> 00:35:44,852
be add as a tangible and as a tangible output on the liking current

504
00:35:44,852 --> 00:35:47,687
transactions because like because

505
00:35:48,487 --> 00:35:54,187
so will create an output which is non -economic variable, and these

506
00:35:54,187 --> 00:35:59,347
types of outputs are going to be rejected by Bitcoin Chrome and Pulse

507
00:35:59,347 --> 00:36:02,607
because it's under the DAS limits,

508
00:36:04,187 --> 00:36:07,502
is not the same for every type of scriptup keys.

509
00:36:07,662 --> 00:36:13,542
it's not the same for pay2tapflood, it's not the same for pay2witness script hash, it's

510
00:36:13,542 --> 00:36:17,802
not the same for pay2witness public key hash, but there is like one which is fixed,

511
00:36:18,242 --> 00:36:21,002
it's like an absolute amount of Satoshi.

512
00:36:23,442 --> 00:36:24,802
And what does it mean?

513
00:36:24,802 --> 00:36:27,222
It means like if you go on chain

514
00:36:27,318 --> 00:36:29,498
with these kind of transactions,

515
00:36:30,938 --> 00:36:36,438
and you already reveal a preimage to your company, they are not going to able to claim

516
00:36:36,438 --> 00:36:37,538
this ex -Josie on chain.

517
00:36:38,038 --> 00:36:39,478
So they are going to be at last.

518
00:36:39,818 --> 00:36:42,038
mean, they might be in situations where they might get lost.

519
00:36:42,958 --> 00:36:47,098
In practice, we do have like mitigations deployed by all implementation

520
00:36:47,533 --> 00:36:49,993
to avoid this being a vector of attack.

521
00:36:53,653 --> 00:36:59,313
But, we're just like keeping, we just have to introduce a cap, which is like

522
00:36:59,313 --> 00:37:01,013
not the same for all implementations.

523
00:37:01,553 --> 00:37:02,373
It's not even standard.

524
00:37:03,273 --> 00:37:06,813
that's sad to say, but this security mechanism to the protocol is not even standard

525
00:37:06,948 --> 00:37:07,668
between presentations.

526
00:37:11,248 --> 00:37:16,828
And things like now, you're you know, we are talking about like operating a big liking,

527
00:37:16,948 --> 00:37:22,608
rocking apps, and if you're operating that types of liking nodes and you have lot of,

528
00:37:22,608 --> 00:37:26,764
rocking a lot of one's satoshi payments, like you're

529
00:37:26,964 --> 00:37:27,704
quite exposed.

530
00:37:28,944 --> 00:37:30,704
That's a security risk.

531
00:37:31,164 --> 00:37:36,424
you're not able to claim one or five percent of your lagging channels, which has been

532
00:37:36,424 --> 00:37:38,844
completed as does hashchains.

533
00:37:42,584 --> 00:37:44,244
Yeah, right. Interesting.

534
00:37:45,784 --> 00:37:46,104
I think

535
00:37:46,579 --> 00:37:47,579
Interesting.

536
00:37:47,579 --> 00:37:51,459
I mean, I think one thing, one topic that I think is of enormous importance, like one

537
00:37:51,459 --> 00:37:57,139
thing I started to notice, I mean, I told this story before also, but it's like the difference

538
00:37:57,139 --> 00:38:01,538
between the lay people and the people working on lightning.

539
00:38:01,538 --> 00:38:06,938
So I first noticed it in San Francisco in 2019 and then 2019, I think it was also that

540
00:38:06,938 --> 00:38:12,058
same thing when it was like San Francisco versus people in Mexico.

541
00:38:12,058 --> 00:38:20,018
But I think I also noticed it when like, so like Matt Corallo gave a talk to tab comps

542
00:38:20,018 --> 00:38:23,178
ago and they're like, the title was like lightning is broken.

543
00:38:23,178 --> 00:38:29,818
And it was just like full of all this information is for all this information.

544
00:38:29,818 --> 00:38:35,739
But then it's like, so at TABConf, it's like, so there's like what regular people know,

545
00:38:35,739 --> 00:38:38,818
like they know about the lightning network, which is like on a different planet.

546
00:38:38,818 --> 00:38:40,778
And then there's even like the technical community.

547
00:38:40,778 --> 00:38:47,658
It's like the lead lightning people are allowed to kind of take a negative attitude sort of

548
00:38:47,658 --> 00:38:48,658
towards it.

549
00:38:48,658 --> 00:38:54,018
But even then immediately downstream, it's like, it's like it goes in one, everyone pays

550
00:38:54,018 --> 00:38:57,619
attention and then they clap and then it's just, everyone just keeps going out.

551
00:38:57,619 --> 00:39:04,219
They just go about their year as if they hadn't seen it or they're even more, they just are

552
00:39:04,219 --> 00:39:07,938
all the more enthralled by the allure of the lightning network or something.

553
00:39:07,938 --> 00:39:17,778
And I, it's, so I don't know if you, I mean, like, okay, yes, no, no, I mean, go to finish

554
00:39:17,778 --> 00:39:18,778
your point.

555
00:39:18,778 --> 00:39:23,018
I mean, I was just going to say something like, if you had on a scale of one to 10,

556
00:39:23,018 --> 00:39:30,459
like the, you know, Twitter or X's understanding of the lightning network, like how similar

557
00:39:30,579 --> 00:39:35,178
is it to like someone like a Rene Picard or something?

558
00:39:35,178 --> 00:39:45,538
I think it's like, I mean, Rene is a great lightning researcher, but I do think that

559
00:39:45,538 --> 00:39:49,979
the number of people who understand all the parts of lightning in terms of, you know,

560
00:39:49,979 --> 00:39:55,379
we have done change in all the major subsystems of lightning plantations and we have like

561
00:39:55,935 --> 00:40:02,935
written new parts of the protocols or do research in all areas of lightning are very small.

562
00:40:02,935 --> 00:40:16,935
And it's, it's, it's small. I think 10, 10 or 15 people, I would say, have very good understanding of lightning, but I don't think, I don't think more.

563
00:40:17,935 --> 00:40:45,935
And, you know, what is sad is like, I remember Matt's talk in TAPCON one or two years ago and I was there and it's like, you know, you're like, okay, at some point you are like in the lightning community, you are like, okay, we know all the issues or we think to have like lightning protocols taken under control, or at least like, you know, being like, okay, now we have all the major issues and we just have to fix them.

564
00:40:46,935 --> 00:41:07,935
And then you find like a new remedy or, or you find like some kind of weird interactions between like the lightning layers and the base layers and you're like, okay, now we are like, we are back to like two or three years ago, or like, we're like, okay, technical debt is like, technical debt is increasing faster than we are like fixing issues.

565
00:41:07,935 --> 00:41:18,935
And that's, that's, yeah, that's one kind of I'm like, okay, I prefer to take a step back from lightning and like, work on something more conservative.

566
00:41:19,935 --> 00:41:46,935
Well, yeah, that makes sense. I mean, I just want to maybe mention one random story, which is that this was about a little more than a year ago. Yep. When I was, I did a little pitch deck for this company LayerTwo Labs. And I had a bunch of stuff, tons of stuff on there. And you know, it's mostly great. But I had one slide that I had like a couple slides about like, you know, problems in Bitcoin or whatever.

567
00:41:47,935 --> 00:42:04,935
Just kind of motivate the whole thing, kick the thing off. And one of them was about light lightning problems with lightning, just one, that's the only just one slide. And just people just absolutely hated this slide. And all kinds of people tried to, they put enormous pressure on me to just cut this slide.

568
00:42:06,835 --> 00:42:09,575
Some people don't want to hear anything about this.

569
00:42:10,655 --> 00:42:13,855
people like, you know, it's like negative or something.

570
00:42:14,015 --> 00:42:17,855
It's funny because like, I think like the slide right before I had something about like

571
00:42:17,855 --> 00:42:22,235
taproot adoption and I had like SegWit with the graph going up a lot and then taproot

572
00:42:22,235 --> 00:42:25,415
it was like 0.303 % or

573
00:42:25,601 --> 00:42:27,101
something. was like some tiny thing.

574
00:42:27,201 --> 00:42:31,281
I was like, oh, we worked on this Taproot thing that people weren't really using

575
00:42:31,281 --> 00:42:36,421
because it was before Taproot Wizards and Ordinals were like hacking it.

576
00:42:37,121 --> 00:42:41,421
but I just, I just really stuck out to me as this memory that just people really just

577
00:42:41,421 --> 00:42:45,268
did not want to, they had a very strong reaction

578
00:42:45,268 --> 00:42:49,788
reaction to like just like any criticism of lightning or something like that.

579
00:42:49,848 --> 00:42:53,048
I'm not exactly sure how to piece it together myself but you know you really did get

580
00:42:53,048 --> 00:42:58,428
the impression that a lot of people had invested in the lightning network like not only

581
00:42:58,428 --> 00:43:02,368
just financially but also like kind of spiritually and psychologically and that they

582
00:43:02,368 --> 00:43:04,935
didn't even want to hear anything about.

583
00:43:04,935 --> 00:43:05,935
Yeah.

584
00:43:07,935 --> 00:43:27,935
I mostly had, I had stuff on there that was just like quoting, like, you know, people like Matt Corral, or like experts I had, like, it wasn't even coming from me. I had linked to the synonym spaces that John Carvalho had done. I had like the math on the onboarding problem. Anyway, what do you have? I don't know. I just thought that was a very curious thing.

585
00:43:27,935 --> 00:43:56,935
Yeah, but you know, like, I'm still like, lightning, as I would say, is a protocol paradigm. And this whole idea about like, you know, doing trustless, or trust minimized, off-chain, private contracts, based on public UTXO in the blockchain, and doing this, like, with someone else, like, you know, in Singapore, or Chile, or like, South Korea, like, that you have never met before, and being able, like, to do like financial transactions.

586
00:43:58,935 --> 00:44:20,935
That is still like a fascinating paradigm, and very powerful paradigm. But, you know, when you study lightning for years, like I've done, and we're like, when you come back, like, it's very interesting, but it might take 10 to 20 years to fix. People don't like, don't like this, that kind of statement.

587
00:44:20,935 --> 00:44:49,935
I'm lucky to be young, in the sense of, I can say, hey, like, I can wait 10 or 20 years for lightning to mature, and all this off-chain paradigm to mature, but other people, they're like, I mean, we have to deliver next semester, or we have to, you know, there is like quarter returns, or like, all that kind of things, or we do have, we're VC-funded, and LP of like, are thinking on five or seven years timelines, all that kind of things.

588
00:44:50,935 --> 00:45:03,935
So, yeah, people generally don't like, like you were saying, when you show up and say, this is same as a lot of issues and drawbacks, they might not like these statements.

589
00:45:08,935 --> 00:45:09,935
Yeah, they certainly did not.

590
00:45:10,935 --> 00:45:11,935
Yeah.

591
00:45:11,935 --> 00:45:14,935
Well, we have Satoshi and Joyers up here, so.

592
00:45:14,935 --> 00:45:16,935
I might take some questions.

593
00:45:16,935 --> 00:45:22,935
Yeah, let's see if anyone wants to come up. Just come up. Feel free to come up, and here we are.

594
00:45:23,935 --> 00:45:25,935
Cool. Hey, what's up, guys?

595
00:45:25,935 --> 00:45:26,935
Hello.

596
00:45:26,935 --> 00:45:35,935
I have some questions on a little bit about lightning from the experts. Basically, I have like this way I'm looking at it, and I'm wondering if it's correct.

597
00:45:36,935 --> 00:45:48,935
So, I was looking at lightning in a way where, basically, people would eventually get priced out from the base layer, and they would have their self-custody, or non-custodial on lightning.

598
00:45:49,935 --> 00:45:57,935
But it seems like, to me, that doesn't really scale in a sense of because they still have to open and close channels, and they have to still do that on chain.

599
00:45:57,935 --> 00:46:05,935
So, if they can afford on chain, like there might be like a middle ground of people that can really have fully non-custodial on lightning.

600
00:46:05,935 --> 00:46:11,935
But if they're really fully priced out on chain, then lightning becomes custodial to them. Do you think that?

601
00:46:11,935 --> 00:46:20,935
Yeah. So, you're saying like, you know, we're talking about like one Satoshi Payments, a while back. We might have this issue about like trustless lightning payments.

602
00:46:20,935 --> 00:46:31,935
The bound might be far too high for a lot of people, and there might be price of lightning itself, like you're saying. Yes.

603
00:46:32,935 --> 00:46:47,935
I see. So, right. So, would that say then lightning would trend towards more like institutional players that can, you know, afford on chain, but they would rather do high velocity on lightning and then just like, you know, settle every once in a while.

604
00:46:47,935 --> 00:46:50,935
Does that seem like where it would benefit, basically?

605
00:46:51,935 --> 00:47:04,935
So, I do think as a Bitcoin community, I do think we have a lot of like design margin in terms of what some consensus change, which could improve this issue.

606
00:47:04,935 --> 00:47:30,935
A sense of new mechanisms, more like delaying the claim or like automatic aggregations of low value payments that could improve on these fronts and like maintaining some kind of, like maintaining lightning as affordable systems for a lot of people in this world.

607
00:47:30,935 --> 00:47:34,935
But that's a lot of work, low level work in Bitcoin consensus.

608
00:47:36,935 --> 00:47:45,935
So, just in short, would it be fair to say that in a higher fee environment, lightning doesn't really solve the average user's non-custodial take?

609
00:47:46,935 --> 00:48:00,935
With today's Bitcoin consensus rules, Bitcoin today is mempool and transactionally designed in lightning today state of lightning rotations. That's going to be hard. Yes.

610
00:48:01,935 --> 00:48:18,935
Great, thanks. I was also wondering, another question if I may, if you had a chance to look into drivechains, BIP300 and 301, and if you have, if you feel like you researched it enough, what is your takes on it? What is like your general thoughts on it? But if you haven't, that's okay too.

611
00:48:18,935 --> 00:48:35,935
No, I understand sidechain, but I understand the sidechain 2014 paper that like most of people have read and like a bunch of like, but I do think drivechain and sidechain might share a lot of issues with lightning.

612
00:48:35,935 --> 00:48:51,935
Or like, there is like some of them, there are some of them, which are like, you know, issues we do have about interactivity or being 24 hours, seven days, or the orgs, or like mempool shooting.

613
00:48:53,935 --> 00:49:01,935
I don't think anyone has done like a demonstration there apart of Peter Todd, but they might, they might share some issues.

614
00:49:01,935 --> 00:49:15,935
Okay. So if I was to say, what do you think would be the best way to scale in a non-custodial way for, you know, let's say millions or even, you know, hundreds of millions of users to use Bitcoin in a non-custodial way?

615
00:49:16,935 --> 00:49:22,935
What would be your best way? Do you think, is there any specific op codes or any specific type of way that you think would be the best for you?

616
00:49:23,935 --> 00:49:33,935
So I work a while back, I work on payment tools and like a bit of chain factories. And I think Paul has written like some interesting blog posts, like one or two years ago, something like this.

617
00:49:34,935 --> 00:49:51,935
I do, like, I do think like payment tools and payment channels are the most interesting way forward. If you want to have like billions of users and those billions of users have multiple accounts or like off-chain balance, Bitcoin balance.

618
00:49:51,935 --> 00:50:07,935
But it's, it's decades. It's not, it's decades. And it's like a lot of like change in Bitcoin consensus or like, I don't know, between like five or 10 software, like we had like dark roots.

619
00:50:08,935 --> 00:50:21,935
So, well, yeah, I was thinking that those probably would be difficult, like the coin pool and channel factories stuff. I think that'd be very difficult to do because you seem to be.

620
00:50:22,935 --> 00:50:36,935
I wrote an article about this in detail and always the writing is more reliable than, but, but I really did write it with my own. So let's see if I can remember that there was like a fundamental issue where either a majority of people can like evict someone.

621
00:50:37,935 --> 00:50:46,935
So either you have like total, people have like total sovereignty where like you can't be evicted or you have the problem. So you choose one or the other, you know what I mean?

622
00:50:49,935 --> 00:50:57,935
Someone like falls asleep and then they're not responding and they have to drag the whole thing on chain and like refresh it, which is horrible.

623
00:50:58,935 --> 00:51:16,935
Yeah, I think you're pointing the correct issue. That's a liveliness of that type of systems. Like let's imagine you go to the payment channels or payment pool with 1000 users. If any of them like go offline, you cannot evict the states anymore.

624
00:51:17,935 --> 00:51:43,935
So you might solve these issues with like smart governance where like, you might like someone might be evict or like partitions of the pool and like without, without its own like, you might kick out someone out of the pool without like the whole consensus of people with like pre-signed transactions.

625
00:51:43,935 --> 00:52:04,935
Or you might have like sub-partitions of the pool in off-chain kind of subgroup of peoples. But any solutions I know, at some point, you need to go on chains and like sub-segregate the pool or like re-aggregate the pool in function of liveliness participants.

626
00:52:05,935 --> 00:52:27,935
In theory, it works. And, you know, with smart cryptography like ZK Proof or like, or even with like empty curve based cryptography, you might do interesting things. But I don't know the math, to be honest. I don't know the math in the sense of what would be the average cost, on-chain fee cost of 10,000 payment pools users, that kind of questions.

627
00:52:28,935 --> 00:52:51,935
Yeah, I think the channel factory of like 10 people is something like, when you have to bring it on stage, it's much more than 10 times what it would have been if it was like 10 different L1, 2, 1 input, 2 output transactions there. So it's like, it's like very big to bring the channel on.

628
00:52:52,935 --> 00:53:12,935
Yeah, you have this issue if you have like 100 people trying to exist at the same time, they might pay worst average, they might pay worst fee, like fee cost than if they would have like stayed in the pool or like have done like two of two payment channels.

629
00:53:12,935 --> 00:53:34,935
So it's, that's, that's where like, we don't have like, you know, people are like proposed a lot of like secondary, second layers ideas, a lot of second layers design. But as of today, I don't think we know enough as a community on like, how do you measure economic efficiency and like, yeah, economic efficiency of multiple channels.

630
00:53:43,935 --> 00:53:48,935
Um, what do you think you would say? Oh, you kind of cut out there? Maybe?

631
00:53:48,935 --> 00:53:50,935
Yeah, I have to cut out.

632
00:53:53,935 --> 00:53:55,935
We have five more minutes.

633
00:53:56,935 --> 00:53:58,935
For me, you are cutting out a little bit.

634
00:53:58,935 --> 00:54:24,935
Oh, okay. So I will say again, you know, people have talked about sidechain, people have talked about drivechains, people have talked about federations and eCash, people have talked about payment pools, payment channels, whales, state chains, whales, ark, whales, tumblebeats like years ago.

635
00:54:25,935 --> 00:54:49,935
So we have like all those ideas and all to scale bitcoins, but we don't know as a community how to measure and compare the economic efficiency of those constructions, like in terms of bandwidth, in terms of requirements on the end users, in terms of average on-chain fee cost, in terms of average off-chain fee cost, all that kind of metrics.

636
00:54:50,935 --> 00:55:14,935
Okay, we have a body up here also, but first I like to ask one random thing, which is like, some people would say it doesn't actually matter, like those things you say, because it doesn't matter if people use bitcoin at all, because it's just going to be like a settlement bank or a bunch of other custodial stuff, or it'll only be for the very rich or it'll be for institutions or something.

637
00:55:15,935 --> 00:55:30,935
I'm just wondering if you have a, like, some people say, well, it doesn't, the same people who cheer Lightning on, of course, and they say, like, we love Lightning, and then someone says, well, Lightning has this problem, and then they say, well, actually, it doesn't matter if anyone ever spends bitcoin, because.

638
00:55:31,935 --> 00:55:33,935
Yes, it's a settlement layer.

639
00:55:33,935 --> 00:56:01,935
Yeah, I think we will always have that kind of like, in sometimes conflict in like bitcoin use cases and stuff, you know, like, what might be great for Lightning might be less great for vaults or ordinals, or ordinals might like provoke that kind of like, enforcing mempool cycles and like, completely destroy, you know, the whole system.

640
00:56:02,935 --> 00:56:20,935
So it's, it's, and people might say, we don't care, like you say, we don't care about like, secondary use case, because it's just a settlement layer.

641
00:56:21,935 --> 00:56:37,935
You know, it's, I don't have like strong opinions on like, it's great if bitcoin can work without Lightning, if you do have like, enough transaction fees from other use case to pay the miners.

642
00:56:37,935 --> 00:57:05,935
But some more like, like, you know, so like, you know, other payment systems, decentralized payment systems off of Lightning, like, make the whole things like, having like people using in real world economy, in El Salvador, in Kenya, in Israel, a lot of developing countries that, you know, have more like, real world economic traffic, being relying on bitcoin, I think it's a good thing.

643
00:57:05,935 --> 00:57:06,935
It's making things stronger.

644
00:57:10,935 --> 00:57:15,935
Okay, cool. We have a body and then yes.

645
00:57:17,935 --> 00:57:19,935
Hey, thanks for taking my question.

646
00:57:20,935 --> 00:57:25,935
So in a one thing that I've sort of conceptualized, and maybe I can correct me if I'm wrong.

647
00:57:26,935 --> 00:57:31,935
One of the problems that Lightning Network has in the security model is that it's inherently an optimistic system.

648
00:57:32,935 --> 00:57:37,935
So you, you depend on someone posting on chain to say, okay, here's, here's the state of the closure.

649
00:57:38,935 --> 00:57:40,935
And then you have this window of opportunity to contest that.

650
00:57:41,935 --> 00:57:44,935
And obviously that that runs into problems in crowded block space.

651
00:57:44,935 --> 00:57:46,935
So my question then is about BitVM.

652
00:57:47,935 --> 00:57:50,935
That's kind of one of the latest things we've heard people, you know, a lot of excitement about.

653
00:57:51,935 --> 00:57:54,935
But BitVM is inherently an optimistic system, just like Lightning Network.

654
00:57:55,935 --> 00:58:01,935
So does it suffer from potentially the same kind of drawbacks and security complications as Lightning Network?

655
00:58:02,935 --> 00:58:03,935
And just what are your thoughts on that?

656
00:58:03,935 --> 00:58:04,935
Well, it's using time locks.

657
00:58:05,935 --> 00:58:06,935
It's using time locks a lot.

658
00:58:07,935 --> 00:58:08,935
And it's like share UTXO like Lightning.

659
00:58:09,935 --> 00:58:15,935
So I think yes, but I've not done like any advanced research work on this.

660
00:58:16,935 --> 00:58:17,935
But intuitively, I think.

661
00:58:22,935 --> 00:58:23,935
Cool. Thanks.

662
00:58:24,935 --> 00:58:25,935
I think that was really my only question at the moment.

663
00:58:27,935 --> 00:58:30,935
Okay, Bitcoin 00000 is here.

664
00:58:31,935 --> 00:58:32,935
Yeah.

665
00:58:33,935 --> 00:58:37,935
If you have like one last thoughts or if you want to digest the conversation.

666
00:58:38,935 --> 00:58:39,935
We have to go, but.

667
00:58:40,935 --> 00:58:41,935
Hello.

668
00:58:42,935 --> 00:58:43,935
Hello, guys.

669
00:58:45,935 --> 00:58:46,935
Yes.

670
00:58:47,935 --> 00:58:51,935
I want to know what is the future of Bitcoin blockchain?

671
00:58:53,935 --> 00:58:54,935
Sorry?

672
00:58:55,935 --> 00:58:56,935
Well, that's kind of a vague, maybe.

673
00:58:57,935 --> 00:58:58,935
The future of Bitcoin.

674
00:58:58,935 --> 00:58:59,935
The future of Bitcoin.

675
00:59:00,935 --> 00:59:01,935
Hmm.

676
00:59:02,935 --> 00:59:04,935
Probably we'll find another block 10 minutes from now.

677
00:59:06,935 --> 00:59:09,935
And then we probably find another one around 10 minutes after that.

678
00:59:11,935 --> 00:59:12,935
That's probability.

679
00:59:13,935 --> 00:59:14,935
There's no certainty.

680
00:59:15,935 --> 00:59:16,935
You know, that's one of the funny things about.

681
00:59:17,935 --> 00:59:25,935
I think I could never have done what Satoshi did because I would have just thinking in my head, even though I'm I was literally a professional statistician in academia.

682
00:59:25,935 --> 00:59:29,935
But I would be thinking, oh, there's some likelihood that it will just go like eight hours without a block.

683
00:59:30,935 --> 00:59:32,935
And that's it's only a matter of time before that happens.

684
00:59:33,935 --> 00:59:36,935
And then I would just be like, then the project will just die or something.

685
00:59:37,935 --> 00:59:38,935
I don't know. It's just like kind of a funny.

686
00:59:39,935 --> 00:59:44,935
It's just like really just having the difficulty just to set it to the average like that.

687
00:59:45,935 --> 00:59:51,935
He's just really, really confident that miners will continue to have a lot of noise and a lot of improvement over time.

688
00:59:51,935 --> 00:59:54,935
I was just like such a bizarre equilibrium thing.

689
00:59:55,935 --> 00:59:56,935
It's like playing it really close to the.

690
00:59:59,404 --> 01:00:19,084
Yeah, yeah. It's causing just as I say, no, like you say, like the 10 year average, like this design choice and Satoshi has made, I'm like, like, you know, if we if we start to never found a block for 24 hours or 48 hours or like 72 hours or like a week, what we do, I'm curious.

691
01:00:19,084 --> 01:00:30,404
I mean, it's like it's like very negligible and we're making the same types of assumptions where we're designing cryptosystems and cryptographic protocols.

692
01:00:30,404 --> 01:00:33,524
But yeah, it's underpinning the whole thing.

693
01:00:36,083 --> 01:00:39,403
OK, well, great. Well, if you can, if you have to go, then you have to go.

694
01:00:39,403 --> 01:00:42,964
But this is a fantastic conversation.

695
01:00:43,524 --> 01:00:47,724
Thanks very much for having me and my peer.

696
01:00:48,524 --> 01:00:49,884
See you. Cool.

697
01:00:49,884 --> 01:00:50,243
See you.

698
01:00:52,644 --> 01:00:55,364
Well, how about that? What an interesting guy.

699
01:00:57,884 --> 01:01:03,044
Of course, we can hang out here if people want to have any questions for me or just want to talk about anything.

700
01:01:03,804 --> 01:01:09,563
One thing that I did do earlier this week was I published this giant image or I replied to Peter Todd's post.

701
01:01:09,563 --> 01:01:14,804
So Peter Todd is like the number one hater of the Drivechain idea.

702
01:01:15,243 --> 01:01:19,964
And in many ways, before even Drivechain existed, he was he sort of killed the.

703
01:01:21,964 --> 01:01:23,923
I think I'm dying to know this.

704
01:01:23,923 --> 01:01:31,084
This is one of the things I plan to ask him when we do the actual podcast on Stefan Levera's show, which I think is Tuesday.

705
01:01:32,644 --> 01:01:39,444
But I'm just dying to know, like, what did Blockstream hear that made them kind of like back off of this idea?

706
01:01:39,483 --> 01:01:44,444
Because they really backed off on it in a major where they were full speed ahead and then they backed off.

707
01:01:44,444 --> 01:01:47,964
And I don't know, I'm just dying to know exactly what that is.

708
01:01:48,124 --> 01:01:49,283
We had Adam back.

709
01:01:50,843 --> 01:01:59,883
On this on the space, I think in the summer or not that long ago, and that was a great conversation also.

710
01:02:01,324 --> 01:02:07,164
And he was talking about like miner costs, but then he seemed to accept my explanation that that's not it doesn't make any sense.

711
01:02:07,923 --> 01:02:11,563
So, yeah, Peter wrote this long article and it's like a really terrible article.

712
01:02:12,804 --> 01:02:17,804
And but there's no people who are like, why did you write it this way?

713
01:02:18,164 --> 01:02:28,524
Replying in that one giant image, that is the only way that you could reply to it because it's so complex and all the different ways it was self-contradictory and just terrible.

714
01:02:29,483 --> 01:02:31,483
And you just really didn't get a sense of like.

715
01:02:34,043 --> 01:02:37,843
Like the part where there's eight different definitions of mining centralization.

716
01:02:39,364 --> 01:02:44,604
None of which are consistent with each other anyway, so that's that's one thing I'd like to show, which is.

717
01:02:46,964 --> 01:02:54,884
I think that's great, because this is the this is the absolute cutting edge of the debate on this topic, and he's the number one opponent.

718
01:02:55,483 --> 01:02:59,444
And this is the best he could do after we paid him and then he'd spend months and months.

719
01:03:00,884 --> 01:03:09,843
We already been like June on his own terms, he picked the amount of time he picked the amount of money and then it was only because he.

720
01:03:10,843 --> 01:03:21,563
Was dragged onto for the TABConf debate and for the Amsterdam debate that I think he even like finished it at all, I think he would just have never written it, and this is what he could come up with itself.

721
01:03:22,283 --> 01:03:29,364
Anyway, if anyone has any other questions or things that we can talk about, we can talk about ocean, we can talk about all kinds of funny events.

722
01:03:29,364 --> 01:03:37,964
I actually had a question on that on ocean, so I heard some people talk about like the game theory behind it and I'm sure that you might have a really good take.

723
01:03:38,524 --> 01:03:51,804
So I heard, I think, post post Capone say that like he gave the example of the year before there was a block of block space utilization was maybe like 30, 35 percent.

724
01:03:51,804 --> 01:03:56,164
Let's just give that a number. Right. So let's say block space was utilized.

725
01:03:56,164 --> 01:03:59,604
Thirty five percent. There was definitely empty blocks or, you know, half empty blocks, et cetera.

726
01:04:00,323 --> 01:04:15,443
So what if they do not include, you know, certain type of transactions in their blocks, so they create two different type of basically categories for people that are bidding on block space and all things the same.

727
01:04:15,804 --> 01:04:25,684
Then eventually, if they were to reach, let's say, 36 percent or 37 percent of hash rate, then they would eventually reach a certain threshold where they have extra space in their blocks.

728
01:04:25,844 --> 01:04:37,964
And because they have extra space in their blocks, there would be people that would realize that and pay less than current current fee rates, because the way the estimation goes, people just pay current fee rates.

729
01:04:37,964 --> 01:04:42,844
So like they might not really be losing, you know, until they reach a certain threshold.

730
01:04:43,244 --> 01:04:46,244
OK, can we like we have to slow down a little bit here.

731
01:04:46,244 --> 01:04:54,644
Are you referring to the idea that they would divide the block into a zone that is like for normal transactions and then like for ordinals, inscriptions or something like that?

732
01:04:54,644 --> 01:04:56,923
And then they charge a different block.

733
01:04:57,603 --> 01:05:03,524
No, I'm referring to let's say they just do not include certain transactions in their blocks completely.

734
01:05:04,763 --> 01:05:11,244
Yeah, so, OK, if they do that, though, then what they're doing is normally like you can you can model it like this.

735
01:05:11,284 --> 01:05:15,804
Let's say just for the sake of simplicity, this is inaccurate, but it's simplification.

736
01:05:16,443 --> 01:05:27,323
That every block has like that every 10 minutes, there's like let's just say it's two dollars worth of ordinals come in, which would fill half the block.

737
01:05:27,804 --> 01:05:35,364
And the next in the mempool would be one dollar worth of what you might call regular transactions.

738
01:05:36,883 --> 01:05:42,964
And that happens every that's flowing in from the universe, you know, from the world every 10 minutes.

739
01:05:43,284 --> 01:05:49,284
So what most people do is they just they take the ordinals first and then the regular transactions.

740
01:05:49,284 --> 01:05:51,883
And then there's like a let's say there's a long backlog or whatever.

741
01:05:52,404 --> 01:05:58,203
But the point is, everyone's getting three dollars a block in this incredibly simplified model of the world.

742
01:05:58,603 --> 01:06:01,524
If you pass on the ordinals, then you're going to get one.

743
01:06:01,524 --> 01:06:06,644
You take the one dollar of real and then you take whatever else you can rummage around and find.

744
01:06:07,763 --> 01:06:10,003
But, you know, it's not going to add up to three dollars.

745
01:06:10,964 --> 01:06:16,844
And then what you've done is you've left the juicy two dollars on the table for the next guy.

746
01:06:16,883 --> 01:06:18,443
The next guy is going to get four dollars.

747
01:06:18,763 --> 01:06:23,244
The next guy who is not censoring the ordinal censoring, you know, who is the word censoring?

748
01:06:23,244 --> 01:06:28,124
They've just we've decided to use that word to describe this phenomenon of just intentionally not taking the ordinals.

749
01:06:28,443 --> 01:06:36,644
So so it is a transfer of money from the pool that from ocean to the other pools.

750
01:06:37,644 --> 01:06:47,644
So ironically, if you are the ideal thing, actually, for like foundry or someone big would be that ocean rises and becomes like.

751
01:06:49,763 --> 01:06:55,003
A huge, you know, the ideal, actually, the ideal outcome would be for them to even be more than 50 percent.

752
01:06:55,923 --> 01:07:04,923
But what certainly is ideal is if they're 49 percent, if they're 49 percent, then they're they're mining and they can only get the dregs.

753
01:07:05,443 --> 01:07:15,923
You know, the. The lesser paying transactions and as a result, they cannot even hash very much, so they're keeping the difficulty lower.

754
01:07:17,163 --> 01:07:21,203
And they're leaving all the juicy stuff for for for foundry.

755
01:07:21,203 --> 01:07:27,043
So economically, it is a transfer from ocean to the other pools.

756
01:07:27,043 --> 01:07:36,404
I have no idea why I think like a couple of people, Brad and some other people were trying to say that it transfers money to ocean.

757
01:07:37,003 --> 01:07:43,564
And Alp and I sort of engaged with him sort of on Twitter to try to figure out what he was talking about.

758
01:07:43,564 --> 01:07:47,483
But I don't think I think he's like, there's no idea what he's saying.

759
01:07:47,883 --> 01:07:56,284
Yeah, there's this one phenomenon that happens is because most of the fee estimation is coming from Bitcoin Core or mempool.space, which is like basically the fee

760
01:07:56,284 --> 01:07:59,684
estimation is basically coming from both block space buyers.

761
01:08:00,084 --> 01:08:07,323
So it seems like like they're really not missing out, even like currently by just completely ignoring these transactions.

762
01:08:07,644 --> 01:08:12,244
But that's only because of the fee estimation and like because people are paying the similar fee.

763
01:08:12,483 --> 01:08:15,443
So it looks like they're really not missing out or possibly not at all.

764
01:08:15,723 --> 01:08:25,883
But that's what I was thinking of. If there's a certain threshold or once people start realizing there's actually two camps and I don't have to pay as much because, you know, these block producers will include me eventually

765
01:08:25,883 --> 01:08:39,524
anyways. This is a very good point about fee estimation is currently my view is that fee estimation is actually irrational and broken and that is a game theoretic situation where what you do depends on what the other people do.

766
01:08:39,924 --> 01:08:51,003
But in the in the you know what they call the the equilibrium or since John Forbes Nash was the guy who described it as an equilibrium.

767
01:08:51,003 --> 01:08:59,484
It's called the Nash equilibrium, of course, which is like the what I'm saying is in the eventually there will be a rational fee estimation.

768
01:08:59,484 --> 01:09:16,683
And what I think that would look like is you just take the total fees and you divide it by the total fees paid in the last block and you divide it by the blocks, the maximum blocks or whatever the whatever you think the average block size, the total size of the block is.

769
01:09:17,003 --> 01:09:29,044
So the blocks half empty, you're adding a bunch of zeros in there. Anyway, if you just do this simple division step, it's kind of like block weight kind of messes this up.

770
01:09:29,044 --> 01:09:37,563
But block weight is also it also produced things like taproot ordinals for megabyte block that's discounted improperly.

771
01:09:38,524 --> 01:09:40,363
So I think weight is a huge mistake.

772
01:09:40,683 --> 01:09:51,084
There's a lot that gets thrown in there because of like, you know, because of like, you know, these BRC 20 or, you know, ordinal mints that happen that are very, very high time preference because like you have to get in first versus first.

773
01:09:51,363 --> 01:09:54,803
You know, it throws like huge volatility in the fee estimation as well.

774
01:09:55,644 --> 01:10:07,003
Right. Well, I think the fee estimation would be very easy to just say, well, you take the previous blocks fee outcome, and then you just use some kind of exponential smoothing or something that I would redo it completely.

775
01:10:07,003 --> 01:10:08,123
I would jettison everything.

776
01:10:08,604 --> 01:10:16,763
And the only thing that I would keep is we do people do examine the mempool and see, well, what would it take to make it into the next block?

777
01:10:16,763 --> 01:10:18,283
take to make it into the next block.

778
01:10:19,183 --> 01:10:22,423
I think that's another thing is have you used a lot of software where it gives you all

779
01:10:22,423 --> 01:10:26,963
these options like in the next block, in two blocks, and then there's all these other

780
01:10:26,963 --> 01:10:29,063
options and it's like who cares about these other options.

781
01:10:29,543 --> 01:10:31,283
You either care about I'd

782
01:10:31,323 --> 01:10:36,783
to get it in the block sometime this week, or you care, like I didn't really expect it

783
01:10:36,783 --> 01:10:40,743
to go through very soon, as quickly as possible.

784
01:10:41,543 --> 01:10:45,983
So I don't know why there's, but I'm just trying to zero in on your question about the,

785
01:10:45,983 --> 01:10:51,183
I think that the fee estimation will eventually be rational, and then it will

786
01:10:51,183 --> 01:10:54,663
eventually be the same for everyone, because there just be an objective rule

787
01:10:57,863 --> 01:11:02,923
that and it'll just be literally like a formula that everyone knows and everyone will

788
01:11:02,923 --> 01:11:03,703
get the same answer.

789
01:11:04,443 --> 01:11:06,223
So everyone will have the same fee estimation.

790
01:11:06,803 --> 01:11:10,923
That is not only that's rational for the end -users so they know that they don't overpay

791
01:11:10,923 --> 01:11:16,443
and that's also rational for the for every miner so that they know

792
01:11:16,443 --> 01:11:21,243
how to assemble the blocks to maximize their revenue.

793
01:11:21,903 --> 01:11:24,763
So I just think that will happen and I don't know it like sort of just hasn't happened

794
01:11:24,763 --> 01:11:25,383
for a while.

795
01:11:25,923 --> 01:11:29,943
I'm not sure if that helps at all with answering your question but eventually the fee

796
01:11:29,943 --> 01:11:33,023
estimation I think will work itself out.

797
01:11:33,403 --> 01:11:39,263
will be well you know if you it's kind of like

798
01:11:39,263 --> 01:11:44,743
I mean just imagine asking the miners to lose money and then saying oh but you're not

799
01:11:44,743 --> 01:11:47,303
including you're including only the...

800
01:11:47,323 --> 01:11:49,283
good transactions, not the bad ones.

801
01:11:50,403 --> 01:11:52,663
And it's like, well, they're losing money, so it's kind of baffling.

802
01:11:52,763 --> 01:11:54,123
know, like they're not going to...

803
01:11:54,123 --> 01:11:56,163
They shouldn't care and they won't care.

804
01:11:57,484 --> 01:12:01,203
Yeah, basically, the optimization will just become more optimized over time.

805
01:12:02,323 --> 01:12:03,323
Right, I think so.

806
01:12:03,803 --> 01:12:05,044
I have another one.

807
01:12:05,524 --> 01:12:07,924
Okay, but we should grant we have a new person, RJ.

808
01:12:09,123 --> 01:12:11,964
Then we'll go in a line, I think.

809
01:12:14,203 --> 01:12:15,644
Hey, can you guys hear me?

810
01:12:15,644 --> 01:12:15,883
Well?

811
01:12:17,243 --> 01:12:18,084
Hello. Yes.

812
01:12:18,164 --> 01:12:34,323
Great. Hey, hello, everyone. My best wishes GM GM. Hey, Paul. Love your work, man, especially on VIP 3001301. Also, the way you present your ideas in your videos and presentations, they have a good humor. So kudos.

813
01:12:35,763 --> 01:12:55,924
My question is on drivechain. I have been a student of right change for a while now. And when I imagine a word running on blockchains, drivechains actually makes sense to me. And when I say imagine I'm an engineer, hence, it is very hard for me to imagine impractical stuff. But drivechain do make sense to me for a word running on blockchains.

814
01:12:56,243 --> 01:13:09,604
Now, my question is on the currency peg between the mother chain, which is BTC and the child chains. If I'm locking certain BTC on mother chain, and take an example that right now BTC price is 45k, for example.

815
01:13:10,964 --> 01:13:24,363
And after a period of time, the child chain out of utility community or because of some black swan event experience huge demand. How will influence how will it you know, influence the peg?

816
01:13:24,924 --> 01:13:46,123
If there is any such arrangement. And yes, and Paul in your blogs, you rapidly knock off bad questions. And I like that. So you can do that to her. But if you think the time is enough in this space, I think it's a good question. Yeah, this is a good question. I think it, um, it gets one thing.

817
01:13:46,123 --> 01:14:15,164
There's an important fact about the peg that I think is overlooked, which is that when you have the blockstream originally had this, this idea of sidechains, it was kind of, I think, based on Namecoin, where it was like, they called it symmetric. And like, neither chain was kind of like, above the other, and they either one of them could just go away at any time, and the other would continue. But that's not what I did. I did the fully 100% asymmetric.

818
01:14:16,363 --> 01:14:43,484
Which is more like the lightning network, whereas there's the lightning node, the lightning node requires there to be. And as you said, there's like a child chain and like a mother chain. So the advantage of this is that in one direction, the peg is has the perfect attributes, it always works, it always works immediately. And it always works one to one. And it's awesome. It has all the throughput that you have on one, which is the max amount.

819
01:14:43,484 --> 01:15:12,524
And so the deposits, if the if the child chain is doing much better, the then just more and more people will deposit. And so the one to one peg really can never be. It's the ceiling is, is excellent. It's only the floor that can, that can potentially collapse and not and not work. So if the sidechain is the reverse situation, aside, you have some kind of problem and everyone wants to leave.

820
01:15:13,484 --> 01:15:41,484
And then not probably maybe not everyone will be able to get out. Although even in that situation, people will be able to buy and sell on the on the chain, and then there should be one or two or like even as many as five or 6000 people over there who will buy up all the L2 coins and then try to walk them back. So even in that case, the pay, even in the disaster scenario, the page should still do sort of okay.

821
01:15:41,484 --> 01:16:11,404
But as for the sidechain becoming more popular, that is the direction in which we don't have to worry as much because imagine what it would be like if the if someone was paying on the free market, you know, they thought that one side coin, you know, one of the L2 coins is worth 1.1 L1 coins, or someone can just do that trade, and then move the 1.1 coins in immediately and make them

822
01:16:11,484 --> 01:16:41,164
mean L2 coins. So so that's really not going to happen in that direction. It's going to be just fine. But I think a lot of people miss that this. This is kind of the part of the thing because it's the withdrawal is the biggest problem. The withdrawal is will never be perfectly secure. It's not possible. And it's not possible without making a much worse mistake of infecting the L1 with the L2.

823
01:16:41,484 --> 01:17:11,083
So the withdrawal is a problem. That's why the withdrawal is slow, the withdrawal is inconvenient. And that is why we hope that people atomic swap back and forth and do it rarely. But the deposit is not a problem at all. deposit always works. So the deposit always works. And that that's great. Because when you have a situation where people can instantly do the swap, swap out to one on the free market at any price, and you have

824
01:17:11,804 --> 01:17:14,524
the deposit being instant and one to one peg.

825
01:17:15,883 --> 01:17:17,804
Well, that's very, very helpful.

826
01:17:19,243 --> 01:17:41,003
You just keeps all the problematic parts, just bottled up in the one withdrawal zone, where we can keep an eye on them, I guess. And so that that would not be an issue. That is just what would happen in that case is just a tire total quantity of coins would flow into the sidechain.

827
01:17:41,003 --> 01:17:52,603
So out of the 19 million, or 21 million BTC, just more of them would flow into the sidechains became more popular, I think.

828
01:17:55,003 --> 01:18:08,363
Oh, thanks. Thanks, Paul. I would be honest, I would say that not a eureka moment, but I definitely a good direction for me to learn more and get it here. Thanks. Thanks a lot.

829
01:18:09,324 --> 01:18:37,083
Okay, great. Yeah, we'll have a new we have a new version coming out. I'm very excited about it. We've switched from registers to signet. So everyone will be able to use play money to get together. So this is be a good test. And before it was just you just test it out by yourself. But after this update, everyone will be on the same network as everyone else. And we'll have a Z cash sidechain coins and we can send them to each other. And we can figure out if anything breaks or whatever, which

830
01:18:38,044 --> 01:18:53,644
I'm sure there are various bugs, you know, because even when we like clone, like a clone Z cash, the bug is never like, like they have it all figured out in Z cash, but we have like something like linked to wrong or something. So it's usually like something

831
01:18:55,164 --> 01:19:06,284
kind of important to where it's like, there's no problem with. Well, it's kind of a technical detail, but it's like, we'll, we'll find those bugs and kill them all. So we have a new

832
01:19:07,804 --> 01:19:23,404
new version is coming out. And then maybe I think that would make it much more clear when people actually use it. I mean, when I first learned about Bitcoin, I read I did a ton of reading and background research. And I kind of really thought that I understood it. And then when I actually used it,

833
01:19:24,363 --> 01:19:47,804
I realized that I, my previous understanding was wrong in very many ways. Just one example of many is that I had, I thought it was like BitTorrent, where you had to keep it open and collect collect six confirmations. So I had like collected six confirmations. Then I closed the software. And then I opened it like the next day, or, and then it had like, like 150 confirmations. And I was like,

834
01:19:47,804 --> 01:19:58,524
why? I was like, where did these come from? I really didn't understand what I was talking about. So I think I'm optimistic that more people will understand it when they have the test software to use.

835
01:20:00,257 --> 01:20:05,257
Okay, looking forward to it, Paul.

836
01:20:05,257 --> 01:20:08,257
Okay, so you had another question.

837
01:20:08,257 --> 01:20:13,257
Yeah, I think Andreas also just came up. So if he has a question.

838
01:20:13,257 --> 01:20:15,257
Oh, great. Hello.

839
01:20:15,257 --> 01:20:18,257
All right. Hi, Paul.

840
01:20:18,257 --> 01:20:27,257
So I was wondering, is there like a long term roadmap that you have or LayerTwo Labs has for activating sidechains?

841
01:20:27,257 --> 01:20:31,257
So I get that right now, you're having these kind of spaces.

842
01:20:31,257 --> 01:20:43,257
But is there a point where you start talking to miners? Or is there like a master plan for secret secret evil master plan for eventually activating BIP300?

843
01:20:43,257 --> 01:20:46,257
Well, there definitely is a master plan.

844
01:20:46,257 --> 01:20:50,257
And definitely, you know, parts of it are secret.

845
01:20:51,257 --> 01:20:56,257
Declaring it that way is kind of like, wouldn't that be funny if I just said like, I just said no.

846
01:20:56,257 --> 01:21:02,257
And then I just took the next question. I think the there certainly is a plan.

847
01:21:02,257 --> 01:21:11,257
I think, you know, one thing is that in one sense, I kind of understand where people are coming from.

848
01:21:11,257 --> 01:21:17,257
Because they have this kind of like fear, even though it is very unfounded.

849
01:21:17,257 --> 01:21:21,257
There's another sense, though, in which so I have been talking to miners, for example.

850
01:21:21,257 --> 01:21:24,257
And one thing is that the miners are their own specialists.

851
01:21:24,257 --> 01:21:28,257
So so imagine someone who's like a chess prodigy.

852
01:21:28,257 --> 01:21:31,257
You know, Thomas Sol used to talk about this type of thing.

853
01:21:31,257 --> 01:21:36,257
You have someone who's like a chess prodigy or someone who is there.

854
01:21:36,257 --> 01:21:40,257
They're very excellent at their narrow thing that they do.

855
01:21:40,257 --> 01:21:49,257
Right. Like they're a great Olympic rower or something.

856
01:21:49,257 --> 01:21:54,257
Now, this this person already has this type of person who has a lot of prestige.

857
01:21:54,257 --> 01:21:58,257
And they that what I'm getting at is a chess player who's a chess prodigy.

858
01:21:58,257 --> 01:22:02,257
No one challenges them on chess, but people don't really go to them and say, oh,

859
01:22:02,257 --> 01:22:05,257
what do you think we should do about the situation in Gaza or whatever?

860
01:22:05,257 --> 01:22:12,257
You know what I mean? And that's because the world is made up of specialists.

861
01:22:12,257 --> 01:22:16,257
So what I'm getting at is what are you like? What the hell am I talking about?

862
01:22:16,257 --> 01:22:23,257
The miners, some of the the mining pool, big mining pool people told me that they

863
01:22:23,257 --> 01:22:26,257
they asked their clients about taproot activation.

864
01:22:26,257 --> 01:22:29,257
They were like, what should we should we activate taproot?

865
01:22:29,257 --> 01:22:32,257
What should we do? Should we do speedy trial?

866
01:22:32,257 --> 01:22:38,257
And all of their clients, the people who are members of the pool,

867
01:22:38,257 --> 01:22:42,257
the people who contribute, they point their hash rate at the pool.

868
01:22:42,257 --> 01:22:46,257
All those people said the same thing, which is.

869
01:22:46,257 --> 01:22:49,257
What is taproot?

870
01:22:49,257 --> 01:22:51,257
So so they don't so they don't know.

871
01:22:51,257 --> 01:22:55,257
That's the thing is they're mercenaries. Their job is to get cheap power.

872
01:22:55,257 --> 01:22:57,257
They're the chess prodigy. You know what I mean?

873
01:22:57,257 --> 01:23:02,257
Their job is to get the cheap power, get the right machines.

874
01:23:02,257 --> 01:23:06,257
They're interested in like hash price. They're interested in like paper share.

875
01:23:06,257 --> 01:23:10,257
They're interested in all this stuff that has very, very little to do with actual

876
01:23:10,257 --> 01:23:16,257
Bitcoin development or even Bitcoin usage or adoption.

877
01:23:16,257 --> 01:23:19,257
And, you know, just kind of like the power company,

878
01:23:19,257 --> 01:23:24,257
they're going to be obsessed with things like, you know, watts, joules,

879
01:23:24,257 --> 01:23:27,257
whatever regulations,

880
01:23:27,257 --> 01:23:32,257
like environmental impact review for their hydroelectric dam or something.

881
01:23:32,257 --> 01:23:37,257
So the world is full of these specialists.

882
01:23:37,257 --> 01:23:40,257
And and so they don't really know.

883
01:23:40,257 --> 01:23:45,257
And also the people on Twitter who tweet about these things,

884
01:23:45,257 --> 01:23:47,257
people who tweet about one 19 don't know.

885
01:23:47,257 --> 01:23:52,257
I mean, we have many smoking guns, right? There's many one 18.

886
01:23:52,257 --> 01:23:55,257
It's non-controversial. It's been around for a while.

887
01:23:55,257 --> 01:23:59,257
Everyone likes it. No one really dislikes it.

888
01:23:59,257 --> 01:24:03,257
It was coded by a prestigious person. And yet.

889
01:24:03,257 --> 01:24:06,257
Years go by. No one wants to touch activation.

890
01:24:06,257 --> 01:24:10,257
Similar thing with one 19, except Jeremy Rubin decided, well,

891
01:24:10,257 --> 01:24:13,257
I don't want to just sit around. I'll try to activate it.

892
01:24:13,257 --> 01:24:16,257
Horrible reaction. And then he quits Bitcoin.

893
01:24:16,257 --> 01:24:20,257
And there are other things as well, like just like kind of confusing things,

894
01:24:20,257 --> 01:24:25,257
like about the public likes the public loves BIP 39,

895
01:24:25,257 --> 01:24:30,257
but Bitcoin Core doesn't support it, which is a pointless mistake.

896
01:24:30,257 --> 01:24:35,257
BIP 47. Many people like it, but Bitcoin Core doesn't support it.

897
01:24:35,257 --> 01:24:38,257
So this is weird mismatch.

898
01:24:38,257 --> 01:24:44,257
And the miners are sort of specialists.

899
01:24:44,257 --> 01:24:46,257
So anyways, I'm just trying to say, like, I,

900
01:24:46,257 --> 01:24:48,257
I kind of understand where people are coming from, but yeah,

901
01:24:48,257 --> 01:24:54,257
I think the plan is to make the software.

902
01:24:54,257 --> 01:24:58,257
Excellent first. And the.

903
01:24:58,257 --> 01:25:01,257
We have to have a very good.

904
01:25:01,257 --> 01:25:05,257
Like version of the software where there's like a code to diff minimal code

905
01:25:05,257 --> 01:25:10,257
to diff with Bitcoin Core before that question can even come up.

906
01:25:10,257 --> 01:25:14,257
So it's kind of on me really, because.

907
01:25:14,257 --> 01:25:19,257
I have to make the, or we have to make the.

908
01:25:19,257 --> 01:25:24,257
The version that miners could actually run before that, you know,

909
01:25:24,257 --> 01:25:28,257
could really actually be a topic that comes up.

910
01:25:28,257 --> 01:25:33,257
And so Luke had that request, but it was incomplete.

911
01:25:33,257 --> 01:25:37,257
But that's a good start. And we wanted to see.

912
01:25:37,257 --> 01:25:40,257
What other thoughts people had. So, yeah, there is a plan,

913
01:25:40,257 --> 01:25:45,257
but it certainly has to get to the point where like,

914
01:25:45,257 --> 01:25:49,257
because right now the test network is the fork of Bitcoin 16, 16.99.

915
01:25:49,257 --> 01:25:52,257
So it's that's far too old.

916
01:25:52,257 --> 01:25:57,257
That can't be that one. So you have to wait for me to.

917
01:25:57,257 --> 01:26:02,257
To finish the rebasing process, which is.

918
01:26:02,257 --> 01:26:05,257
Very slow.

919
01:26:05,257 --> 01:26:08,257
So after that, unless you want to, Hey, do you want to help? Do you know,

920
01:26:08,257 --> 01:26:10,257
are you very good with C plus plus and Bitcoin Core?

921
01:26:10,257 --> 01:26:15,257
Do you want to do this? Help with the thankless task of rebasing all the.

922
01:26:15,257 --> 01:26:17,257
Anyone wants to.

923
01:26:17,257 --> 01:26:19,257
Anyone wants to.

924
01:26:19,257 --> 01:26:21,257
It was a job doing that.

925
01:26:21,257 --> 01:26:23,257
It's a very difficult job though.

926
01:26:23,257 --> 01:26:27,257
And it is brought with.

927
01:26:27,257 --> 01:26:31,257
It's been done very carefully.

928
01:26:31,257 --> 01:26:36,257
So, yeah, the answer of course is that, yes, of course there's a master plan.

929
01:26:36,257 --> 01:26:39,257
Right. Okay.

930
01:26:39,257 --> 01:26:40,257
Yeah.

931
01:26:40,257 --> 01:26:41,257
I was wondering maybe in the future,

932
01:26:41,257 --> 01:26:45,257
miners will have like a consensus department if they want to optimize

933
01:26:45,257 --> 01:26:47,257
their revenues.

934
01:26:47,257 --> 01:26:48,257
Yeah.

935
01:26:48,257 --> 01:26:51,257
The problem is it's collective action problem where all of the miners

936
01:26:51,257 --> 01:26:52,257
benefit.

937
01:26:53,257 --> 01:26:57,257
And then you see if it was an individual benefit, then this would be.

938
01:26:57,257 --> 01:27:00,257
This would have been done long ago.

939
01:27:00,257 --> 01:27:04,257
You know what I mean? Because it would be like inventing a better ASIC.

940
01:27:04,257 --> 01:27:07,257
So then I would just have gone right to the miners.

941
01:27:07,257 --> 01:27:10,257
And if 1%.

942
01:27:10,257 --> 01:27:12,257
Adopted the thing, they would have more money.

943
01:27:12,257 --> 01:27:14,257
So this is a collective action problem, but you know,

944
01:27:14,257 --> 01:27:17,257
that humanity has built ways to deal with such problems, but, you know,

945
01:27:18,257 --> 01:27:21,257
They have conferences, they have media.

946
01:27:21,257 --> 01:27:22,257
People have meetings.

947
01:27:22,257 --> 01:27:25,257
People understand that something should be done for the collective good.

948
01:27:25,257 --> 01:27:27,257
I think that.

949
01:27:27,257 --> 01:27:30,257
The consensus thing.

950
01:27:30,257 --> 01:27:33,257
I actually wonder about the.

951
01:27:33,257 --> 01:27:37,257
I have a lot of weird thoughts on this, which hopefully.

952
01:27:37,257 --> 01:27:40,257
I don't bore you guys too much, but one is that there's the system called

953
01:27:40,257 --> 01:27:43,257
the West minister system.

954
01:27:43,257 --> 01:27:46,257
Which is basically the UK system of like.

955
01:27:46,257 --> 01:27:49,257
Winner take all 51%.

956
01:27:49,257 --> 01:27:54,257
And I kind of wonder if that is actually the optimal form of governance

957
01:27:54,257 --> 01:27:57,257
because it's really just like minimizing the amount of.

958
01:27:57,257 --> 01:27:59,257
It's like, if you get vetoed.

959
01:27:59,257 --> 01:28:01,257
We don't have time to get into all the details of this,

960
01:28:01,257 --> 01:28:05,257
but one thought that I would like to share is that maybe back in the day,

961
01:28:05,257 --> 01:28:07,257
if only.

962
01:28:07,257 --> 01:28:11,257
Because SegWit blockade was defeated by UASF.

963
01:28:12,257 --> 01:28:15,257
But it could also have been defeated by the miners themselves.

964
01:28:15,257 --> 01:28:18,257
The miners could have just decided.

965
01:28:18,257 --> 01:28:25,257
Like a few days or a few weeks into the blockade, which was.

966
01:28:25,257 --> 01:28:30,257
One pool that was mining Bitcoin unlimited with 9%.

967
01:28:30,257 --> 01:28:34,257
The miners could have took it upon themselves to just orphan all those

968
01:28:34,257 --> 01:28:36,257
blocks from that pool.

969
01:28:36,257 --> 01:28:39,257
And then they would have just activated SegWit with the quote,

970
01:28:39,257 --> 01:28:43,257
95% unquote threshold.

971
01:28:43,257 --> 01:28:46,257
And then there would never have been a UASF.

972
01:28:46,257 --> 01:28:52,257
And that would have been before the New York agreement or SegWit 2X or

973
01:28:52,257 --> 01:28:55,257
Bitcoin Cash ever existed.

974
01:28:55,257 --> 01:28:57,257
And if they had done that, we would be living in a very,

975
01:28:57,257 --> 01:28:59,257
very different world.

976
01:28:59,257 --> 01:29:02,257
And I just think that was kind of a missed opportunity.

977
01:29:02,257 --> 01:29:05,257
If we could go back in time and have that happen instead,

978
01:29:05,257 --> 01:29:10,257
that probably would have been a lot better in many ways.

979
01:29:10,257 --> 01:29:12,257
So I can elaborate on that thought if anyone cares,

980
01:29:12,257 --> 01:29:14,257
but we do have new people who want to,

981
01:29:14,257 --> 01:29:17,257
who came up and want to ask maybe a question.

982
01:29:17,257 --> 01:29:23,257
So, yes, there is a master plan.

983
01:29:23,257 --> 01:29:24,257
But it can't,

984
01:29:24,257 --> 01:29:28,257
nothing can happen at all until there is something for people to actually.

985
01:29:28,257 --> 01:29:34,257
Professor Ian Shapiro, who's written a lot about the Westminster system.

986
01:29:34,257 --> 01:29:38,257
He has a saying in politics, you can't beat something with nothing.

987
01:29:38,257 --> 01:29:44,257
And that is right now I have nothing because we don't have a version that it

988
01:29:44,257 --> 01:29:48,257
would be acceptable to even persuade miners to run.

989
01:29:48,257 --> 01:29:49,257
So we have nothing, but,

990
01:29:49,257 --> 01:29:52,257
but we should still do the education and we have the test network.

991
01:29:52,257 --> 01:29:55,257
So, so we're doing that.

992
01:29:55,257 --> 01:29:58,257
But now we had a Phillip Zach.

993
01:29:58,257 --> 01:30:01,257
Hello, if you had a question or comment.

994
01:30:01,257 --> 01:30:02,257
Hi, Paul.

995
01:30:02,257 --> 01:30:05,257
Thank you very much for let me speak.

996
01:30:05,257 --> 01:30:06,257
I really appreciate it.

997
01:30:06,257 --> 01:30:10,257
Your name came up in conversation when I was at the ocean mining event.

998
01:30:10,257 --> 01:30:14,257
I did have a question for you on proof of work.

999
01:30:14,257 --> 01:30:17,257
I understand the coin and where it is on its spectrum.

1000
01:30:17,257 --> 01:30:22,257
But after reading some of your articles on your truth page,

1001
01:30:22,257 --> 01:30:27,257
do you still believe that there is some room for other algorithms in the space

1002
01:30:27,257 --> 01:30:31,257
that there's still use case like see a coin and others?

1003
01:30:31,257 --> 01:30:33,257
Yes.

1004
01:30:33,257 --> 01:30:35,257
So I think I wrote this article.

1005
01:30:35,257 --> 01:30:37,257
I wrote an article called that.

1006
01:30:37,257 --> 01:30:39,257
This was my big break back in the day.

1007
01:30:39,257 --> 01:30:41,257
And I think December, 2014, Adam,

1008
01:30:41,257 --> 01:30:44,257
back linked to an article I wrote about this auction.

1009
01:30:44,257 --> 01:30:46,257
It was called long live proof of work.

1010
01:30:46,257 --> 01:30:48,257
And then that turned into a bigger essay.

1011
01:30:48,257 --> 01:30:52,257
I got a few months after that called nothing is cheaper than proof of work.

1012
01:30:52,257 --> 01:30:55,257
And the people really liked that essay a lot,

1013
01:30:55,257 --> 01:31:01,257
but not everyone totally 100% understood it because the point of the essay was

1014
01:31:01,257 --> 01:31:04,257
that proof of work and proof of stake are really just very,

1015
01:31:04,257 --> 01:31:06,257
very similar to each other, actually.

1016
01:31:06,257 --> 01:31:10,257
And that to some extent they're all interchangeable

1017
01:31:10,257 --> 01:31:16,257
and they will all be wasting effort and resources of some kind or another.

1018
01:31:16,257 --> 01:31:21,257
And the nice thing about proof of work is that this rolls all of this up

1019
01:31:21,257 --> 01:31:23,257
into one hash that anyone can easily verify.

1020
01:31:23,257 --> 01:31:25,257
So it's very easy, transparent,

1021
01:31:25,257 --> 01:31:28,257
and it's very easy for everyone to see exactly how much work has been done.

1022
01:31:28,257 --> 01:31:34,257
But it's kind of just it's all going to be competitive struggle over the next block

1023
01:31:34,257 --> 01:31:36,257
because the blocks will be worth a certain amount.

1024
01:31:36,257 --> 01:31:42,257
Whatever it is, if the blocks have high inflation, high subsidy, high fees,

1025
01:31:42,257 --> 01:31:46,257
if the network is successful, these blocks will be worth a lot.

1026
01:31:46,257 --> 01:31:48,257
They have what you might call MEV now.

1027
01:31:49,257 --> 01:31:52,257
Each block will be worth a ton,

1028
01:31:52,257 --> 01:31:56,257
and it will be a competitive struggle over who owns the next block,

1029
01:31:56,257 --> 01:31:59,257
the ownership and control of the next block.

1030
01:31:59,257 --> 01:32:04,257
And this will make no matter what it is, if it's proof of work or proof of stake

1031
01:32:04,257 --> 01:32:12,257
or proof of space and time or proof of whatever, it will basically the struggle will happen

1032
01:32:12,257 --> 01:32:15,257
and it will just bring everything out.

1033
01:32:15,257 --> 01:32:21,257
The resources used in the struggle will basically be equal to the value of the block.

1034
01:32:21,257 --> 01:32:26,257
And so and hence the title, the title, which is very good title,

1035
01:32:26,257 --> 01:32:29,257
the best part of the essay, maybe nothing is cheaper than proof of work.

1036
01:32:29,257 --> 01:32:33,257
Is that is the meaning is that you can't you can't improve on it.

1037
01:32:35,257 --> 01:32:43,257
But also, but the people didn't maybe 100 percent understand is it meant that kind of like it's

1038
01:32:44,257 --> 01:32:47,257
you're also kind of limited in your ability to do worse than it.

1039
01:32:47,257 --> 01:32:50,257
Also, it's kind of like all this stuff is kind of just the same

1040
01:32:50,257 --> 01:32:54,257
and to the point where you just shouldn't bother toying with it.

1041
01:32:54,257 --> 01:33:01,257
And so that's my answer to your question, is that I still believe in that, that core.

1042
01:33:02,257 --> 01:33:05,257
But definitely a lot of interesting stuff has happened since then.

1043
01:33:06,257 --> 01:33:10,257
A lot of people have pushed the boundaries of proof of stake.

1044
01:33:10,257 --> 01:33:15,257
And what a lot of people do is they kind of cheat somewhat where they anchor things into Bitcoin proof of work

1045
01:33:15,257 --> 01:33:18,257
and they or they skate around.

1046
01:33:19,257 --> 01:33:25,257
They skate around certain things that will they perform very well in the short term,

1047
01:33:25,257 --> 01:33:29,257
but they leave it open to like catastrophic, huge reorg or catastrophic.

1048
01:33:30,257 --> 01:33:34,257
Like Black Swan type event that proof of work would like basically never have.

1049
01:33:35,257 --> 01:33:38,257
So instead of it being like a smooth.

1050
01:33:39,257 --> 01:33:40,257
Malleable.

1051
01:33:42,257 --> 01:33:48,257
Thing of steel, it's kind of like this, it's funneled into like sections that are really tough,

1052
01:33:48,257 --> 01:33:50,257
but could be brittle and kind of break.

1053
01:33:50,257 --> 01:33:52,257
So I don't know, this is a very long and metaphorical answer.

1054
01:33:53,257 --> 01:33:56,257
But am I getting kind of close to what you are asking about at all,

1055
01:33:56,257 --> 01:33:59,257
which is like people have done these other things, proof of space and time.

1056
01:33:59,257 --> 01:34:08,257
So like proof of space and time is a good example where it doesn't eat up a bunch of hard drives and destroy them.

1057
01:34:08,257 --> 01:34:09,257
At first, the answer was yes.

1058
01:34:09,257 --> 01:34:11,257
Then they changed it a little.

1059
01:34:11,257 --> 01:34:12,257
So the answer is no.

1060
01:34:12,257 --> 01:34:21,257
But what will happen is eventually someone will be able to monetize unused hard drive resources

1061
01:34:21,257 --> 01:34:27,257
and then it will it will flip back or it will flip like people tried to tie it.

1062
01:34:27,257 --> 01:34:31,257
Like at the time when I think Graham Cohen was sort of inventing that.

1063
01:34:33,257 --> 01:34:38,257
It was still like 2014 or something, and people had not completed the shift from.

1064
01:34:40,257 --> 01:34:45,257
People used hard disks and people didn't use solid state drives and they really didn't.

1065
01:34:45,257 --> 01:34:50,257
They hadn't switched from even from desktop laptop to phones.

1066
01:34:50,257 --> 01:34:52,257
But now everyone has got a phone.

1067
01:34:52,257 --> 01:34:53,257
And so.

1068
01:34:54,257 --> 01:34:56,257
And people use AWS.

1069
01:34:56,257 --> 01:34:58,257
So that was an attempt to try.

1070
01:34:59,257 --> 01:35:01,257
These are all these like attempts to try.

1071
01:35:01,257 --> 01:35:08,257
It's like a whack-a-mole thing where people are trying to like make it something that it would be very difficult for an adversary to get 51 percent of.

1072
01:35:10,257 --> 01:35:16,257
But a lot of these things that are only advantages for like a certain time and then they switch to being disadvantages.

1073
01:35:17,257 --> 01:35:18,257
And I kind of just think it's not.

1074
01:35:19,257 --> 01:35:25,257
I really do stand by my overall position, which is that it's really not worth it to mess with messing with the proof of work.

1075
01:35:26,257 --> 01:35:32,257
It doesn't really bring about some kind of big, sustainable, significant advantage.

1076
01:35:32,257 --> 01:35:37,257
So I don't know if that's answering your question or not.

1077
01:35:38,257 --> 01:35:39,257
I'll reiterate.

1078
01:35:39,257 --> 01:35:43,257
Is proof of work other than Bitcoin still viable?

1079
01:35:43,257 --> 01:35:54,257
Is there other algorithms out there that could or would have some kind of advantage or use case other than the Bitcoin network?

1080
01:35:56,257 --> 01:36:02,257
Oh, well, that's different than the networks are different than the proof of work aspects.

1081
01:36:02,257 --> 01:36:11,257
I mean, are you referring to like something that uses SHA-3 or like Litecoin uses a script or whatever?

1082
01:36:14,257 --> 01:36:17,257
Are you referring to that or are you just referring to other blockchain designs?

1083
01:36:17,257 --> 01:36:19,257
Because I think other blockchain designs.

1084
01:36:20,257 --> 01:36:23,257
Is Bitcoin one size fits all or is there room for others?

1085
01:36:23,257 --> 01:36:24,257
No, no, no.

1086
01:36:24,257 --> 01:36:25,257
It's certainly not the case.

1087
01:36:25,257 --> 01:36:30,257
I mean, the sidechain thesis is that is basically that the answer is no.

1088
01:36:30,257 --> 01:36:38,257
And I think in particular, the block size dispute is only the tip of the iceberg.

1089
01:36:39,257 --> 01:36:41,257
It was only the first big dispute.

1090
01:36:41,257 --> 01:36:45,257
But really, you see that people want to do lots of other things.

1091
01:36:45,257 --> 01:36:47,257
I think SIA is a great project.

1092
01:36:47,257 --> 01:36:48,257
So, yeah.

1093
01:36:48,257 --> 01:36:59,257
Now, the whole point of sidechains is to copy the other blockchain designs and keep them on one proof of work system and in one set of 21 million coins.

1094
01:36:59,257 --> 01:37:00,257
There's no inflation.

1095
01:37:00,257 --> 01:37:02,257
There's no counterfeiting, basically.

1096
01:37:03,257 --> 01:37:13,257
And the like, OK, so we have Monero, which Bitcoin led the way in darknet markets.

1097
01:37:13,257 --> 01:37:15,257
But now Monero is on there.

1098
01:37:16,257 --> 01:37:17,257
The block size dispute.

1099
01:37:18,257 --> 01:37:22,257
Clearly, people are very sincere in what they wanted.

1100
01:37:23,257 --> 01:37:25,257
Large blockers wanted large blocks.

1101
01:37:25,257 --> 01:37:28,257
Small blockers wanted small blocks.

1102
01:37:29,257 --> 01:37:34,257
So it's just difficult for you to have a big group of people without some people disagreeing.

1103
01:37:34,257 --> 01:37:36,257
Now, Ethereum turned complete.

1104
01:37:37,257 --> 01:37:46,257
Scripps, and even in Ethereum, of course, Ethereum also began a process that is ongoing of splitting themselves into other networks.

1105
01:37:46,257 --> 01:38:05,257
They have Solana, which just drops the – Solana is just – we will use trial and error and huge amounts of money of R&D to try and make a very, very, very big, high throughput, high performance node.

1106
01:38:06,257 --> 01:38:17,257
And we don't really care about the cost, although they have in fact gotten that cost down to something that is merely a few thousand dollars a year, which is a lot for the average person.

1107
01:38:18,257 --> 01:38:26,257
But this is the other thing about this clever thing about Solana is, of course, it's a lot now, but everything is expensive when it first comes out.

1108
01:38:27,257 --> 01:38:38,257
So the first car costs – the prototype for – the first Tesla sports car prototype costs millions and millions of dollars.

1109
01:38:39,257 --> 01:38:44,257
And then the sports car itself could retail for whatever, a couple hundred thousand dollars.

1110
01:38:45,257 --> 01:38:51,257
And then when you produce it at scale – the first iPhone, the first prototype costs a fortune.

1111
01:38:52,257 --> 01:38:55,257
And then when you make it at scale, the price comes down.

1112
01:38:56,257 --> 01:39:05,257
So the Solana people have just decided to sacrifice decentralization and then hopefully get it back later, but it is basically just Ethereum with larger blocks.

1113
01:39:06,257 --> 01:39:10,257
So then we have a whole universe of stuff, and we don't know who is going to invent what.

1114
01:39:11,257 --> 01:39:24,257
I think – and you know what's really bad for invention is to have this bureaucracy and Bitcoin Core and a weird cult that rejects all change in the hopes of discrediting altcoins, which is all this is misguided and terrible.

1115
01:39:25,257 --> 01:39:30,257
So we don't even have a good way for people to invent new blockchains.

1116
01:39:31,257 --> 01:39:34,257
Sidechains is that way, which we don't have.

1117
01:39:34,257 --> 01:39:40,257
So you can see already that tons of people have tried to invent things, or they're very close.

1118
01:39:41,257 --> 01:39:46,257
Tad Streisand did UTreeXO, which would be much better if you had a soft fork, let alone what you could do with a hard fork.

1119
01:39:47,257 --> 01:39:50,257
UTXO commitments and fraud proofs and other things.

1120
01:39:51,257 --> 01:39:54,257
And then you have a situation where – excuse me.

1121
01:39:55,257 --> 01:40:00,257
You have a situation where people really want OP_CAT, which is like a simple opcode.

1122
01:40:03,147 --> 01:40:10,187
But it's going to take years to get. And even stuff like – so we just heard from

1123
01:40:14,027 --> 01:40:18,427
Riyad, who was just here, and he said about how he was very interested in coin pools,

1124
01:40:18,427 --> 01:40:22,187
and he thought that this would take five or six or even ten soft forks, and it would take

1125
01:40:23,227 --> 01:40:26,267
just five or six or ten years or something. I'm paraphrasing slightly.

1126
01:40:27,307 --> 01:40:30,667
So you have a lot of stuff where people with extremely deep technical knowledge,

1127
01:40:30,667 --> 01:40:35,547
they would like the ability to flexibly alter the software. And just think about the other

1128
01:40:36,507 --> 01:40:46,427
contexts of software, where it's like Microsoft, Windows 95, Windows 98, Windows 2000,

1129
01:40:47,786 --> 01:40:54,986
Windows XP. It changes a lot. So I think the one-size-fits-all is totally doomed.

1130
01:40:54,986 --> 01:40:59,786
I mean, it's a rambling answer, but the one-size-fits-all is a completely doomed thing,

1131
01:40:59,786 --> 01:41:06,267
because people will never disagree. And I think what a lot of people believe mistakenly is that

1132
01:41:06,987 --> 01:41:13,066
it's like that XKCD comic where the person is like, there's 14 different standards, and it's

1133
01:41:13,066 --> 01:41:16,667
like, okay, we just need one that everyone will like, and then there's 15 different standards.

1134
01:41:16,667 --> 01:41:21,307
Everyone just thinks, well, if we could just get everyone under my chain, then

1135
01:41:21,307 --> 01:41:28,987
this chain would be the one that is perfect. I don't know. It just doesn't really seem like

1136
01:41:29,547 --> 01:41:35,386
it. That won't work until... That might work if that was, for some reason, that chain was the

1137
01:41:35,386 --> 01:41:40,026
only one that could have sidechains itself. And then in that way, it was the only one that would

1138
01:41:40,026 --> 01:41:46,106
eventually be able to satisfy everyone's mutually contradicting desires. So I don't know. It's a

1139
01:41:46,106 --> 01:41:53,146
very long and rambling answer. But yeah, I think ASEA is great. It had a very interesting

1140
01:41:53,947 --> 01:41:59,867
origin and development. And it was getting to the point where you could stream video and

1141
01:42:00,426 --> 01:42:05,867
back up an entire hard drive to the cloud with 12 words. So all that stuff is great.

1142
01:42:07,146 --> 01:42:14,826
Namecoin, I think, also could be excellent. And even just the idea of moving the ordinals,

1143
01:42:14,826 --> 01:42:19,147
the assets and stuff onto a different chain that has its own Uniswap and its own whatever,

1144
01:42:20,106 --> 01:42:24,586
its own market maker, its own order book, all of that would be great.

1145
01:42:24,586 --> 01:42:27,946
Prediction markets would be great. And again, we don't even really see...

1146
01:42:30,187 --> 01:42:34,826
There's no way for people to invent good things right now. The entire invention

1147
01:42:36,507 --> 01:42:43,306
pipeline has been built around the rubric of just raising a ton of money and then

1148
01:42:43,386 --> 01:42:52,347
abandoning the project. So all the forces of the world have teamed up to prevent

1149
01:42:54,427 --> 01:43:00,987
competitive innovation in blockchains. And nonetheless, we see a lot of innovation anyway,

1150
01:43:01,627 --> 01:43:09,466
even though it's horribly tortured. So I think the one size fits all is doomed. It will only

1151
01:43:09,466 --> 01:43:15,946
survive in some kind of weird scenario where the QWERTY keyboard... Something weird where it's like...

1152
01:43:18,106 --> 01:43:22,746
I'm continuing to ramble here, but part of the problem is that all of this stuff is so

1153
01:43:22,746 --> 01:43:29,547
new that in any given year, more than half of the people are brand new and they've only been

1154
01:43:29,547 --> 01:43:38,907
here for a year. And that makes it very difficult for them to accumulate knowledge about what they

1155
01:43:38,907 --> 01:43:44,746
should want or what's a good idea. And that will eventually fade. It will be like the early days of

1156
01:43:44,746 --> 01:43:49,866
the internet or the early days of pets.com or something, early days of computers,

1157
01:43:50,666 --> 01:43:56,026
the early days of computer games where it's all very indie. And then eventually it will become

1158
01:43:56,586 --> 01:44:01,466
more standardized and around this common knowledge of stuff.

1159
01:44:01,787 --> 01:44:09,787
And when that happens, it will be much easier to see where innovation is going.

1160
01:44:10,427 --> 01:44:14,586
Thank you very much for your response and your time. I greatly appreciate it and look forward

1161
01:44:14,586 --> 01:44:24,347
to reading more of your articles. Okay, cool. Hey, great. Thanks. Okay, Morgan. Hello.

1162
01:44:25,146 --> 01:44:32,986
Hello. So I have like two ideas I'd like to talk to you about and maybe I'll try to find a

1163
01:44:32,986 --> 01:44:42,907
coherent question in there. I am curious on if companies like Layer 2 or even Bitcoin Core

1164
01:44:44,507 --> 01:44:52,347
is... I always look at a BIP as kind of like a bill in Congress. And I remember when Amir made

1165
01:44:52,507 --> 01:44:58,426
the first BIP to say, this is how BIPs should be made. And I'm curious if we have in the industry

1166
01:44:59,787 --> 01:45:09,387
like a BIP lobbying effort where we have lobbyists that go lobby bills to Congress for their industry

1167
01:45:09,387 --> 01:45:13,947
and they basically bribe them and say, hey, I'll give you some money if you support this bill.

1168
01:45:14,667 --> 01:45:18,907
They bring the bill up, they rally everyone to support the bill and then someone signs it

1169
01:45:19,866 --> 01:45:27,067
and it becomes law. So I always compared a BIP to that. And I'm wondering if there's an effort to

1170
01:45:28,347 --> 01:45:36,426
actually take up BIPs to miners and to node operators and to these companies that

1171
01:45:37,146 --> 01:45:41,866
could potentially push things like a user authenticated software and things like that.

1172
01:45:41,866 --> 01:45:47,306
And if there's anyone actually putting like an incentive, like literally lobbying like bribe

1173
01:45:48,107 --> 01:45:54,746
around BIPs. So that's like my first most important question. And then I'd like to talk

1174
01:45:54,746 --> 01:45:59,947
to you about what happened in the past with segregated witness, since you brought up some

1175
01:45:59,947 --> 01:46:05,546
of those game theory on what could have happened if miners acted a different way. And I'm curious

1176
01:46:06,746 --> 01:46:12,667
on if that scenario could have played out, what would have happened to the...

1177
01:46:13,627 --> 01:46:18,907
If you could ponder this, what would happen to the transaction malleability and the ASICBoost

1178
01:46:18,907 --> 01:46:25,866
thing that Greg Maxwell found? And what kind of world would we be in if some of that maybe was

1179
01:46:25,866 --> 01:46:33,146
not discovered? So those are kind of two different things, but I'm wondering on how in the future we

1180
01:46:33,146 --> 01:46:41,146
can pretty much push changes and how we can gain theory if changes happens, what outcomes would be

1181
01:46:41,146 --> 01:46:51,466
there? Okay. Yes. Those are some very good questions. They're very complicated. I'm sorry.

1182
01:46:53,067 --> 01:46:57,146
No, they're great. I like them a lot, but I'm just trying to figure out what to say. So I think the,

1183
01:46:58,266 --> 01:47:02,187
what I would say is that the BIP process, it was working just fine and there was nothing

1184
01:47:02,187 --> 01:47:10,026
controversial really about it. And there was nothing like until the... I think the BIP process

1185
01:47:10,026 --> 01:47:14,986
was fine. And then a failure somewhere else, there was a governance failure with respect to

1186
01:47:14,986 --> 01:47:23,387
the block size dispute. And that spilled over and it destroyed a large number of things

1187
01:47:24,667 --> 01:47:31,146
of which the BIP process was only one casualty among many. And we would be, you know, Bitcoin

1188
01:47:31,146 --> 01:47:36,026
would be in a completely different place if it had just been handled in a slightly different way.

1189
01:47:36,986 --> 01:47:44,586
And to be honest with you, you just have to look at the, look at research, what the agenda was,

1190
01:47:44,586 --> 01:47:50,827
like the schedule for scaling one and two and the dates, and then just look at scaling three. And

1191
01:47:50,827 --> 01:47:57,866
you see that scaling three is when, I mean, I was there and scaling three, it went, it went off,

1192
01:47:57,866 --> 01:48:03,387
that's where it went off the rails and people were upset and people wanted to redo the conference.

1193
01:48:04,187 --> 01:48:11,866
In fact, this is a long story, but my view is that the, you know, what we have here is a failure

1194
01:48:11,866 --> 01:48:21,387
to communicate. But this block size thing wasn't good. And bizarrely enough, the failure was

1195
01:48:21,387 --> 01:48:28,986
actually, it was something else, I think, actually, because the sidechain idea had already picked up

1196
01:48:28,986 --> 01:48:36,507
steam as of 2013, and then Blockstream being funded in 2014. So I actually think it was the

1197
01:48:36,507 --> 01:48:43,306
failure to deliver. So this is my own conjecture that I'm, you know, I'm not 100% certain about

1198
01:48:43,306 --> 01:48:50,827
this. But whereas I am, I am more certain of what I just said before, but I think we had this thing,

1199
01:48:50,827 --> 01:48:57,226
and then no one, you know, Blockstream failed to deliver sidechains. And if we had sidechains,

1200
01:48:57,226 --> 01:49:02,827
we would have large block version of Bitcoin, a small block version of Bitcoin. This all would

1201
01:49:02,827 --> 01:49:07,387
have been sorted out by the engineers long before the laypeople could get their hands on it and

1202
01:49:07,387 --> 01:49:12,746
turn it into like a political football. And so my view is that the bit process was working just fine

1203
01:49:12,746 --> 01:49:17,226
before it was inadvertently destroyed by the scaling war, and that the scaling war was mostly

1204
01:49:17,226 --> 01:49:25,067
caused by failure to invent or work on or just advocate, articulate a vision for sidechains.

1205
01:49:25,627 --> 01:49:31,866
And, you know, intriguingly, since I could tell you, you looked at the image I made with

1206
01:49:32,746 --> 01:49:40,587
responding to Peter Todd's article, I kind of say that he is the one, maybe not, you know,

1207
01:49:40,587 --> 01:49:45,866
intentionally, but he poured a lot of cold water on this sidechains idea. But I don't,

1208
01:49:45,866 --> 01:49:52,746
you can't really blame him either. Because I kind of also blame like, how could, you know,

1209
01:49:52,746 --> 01:49:56,986
like I say at the end, question nine or something, I say like, how, why did,

1210
01:49:56,986 --> 01:50:00,587
is this what he told, is this what Peter told Blockstream? Or is this what they,

1211
01:50:01,467 --> 01:50:08,187
they also agreed with? And it's like, how could they, you know, sort of fall for this or believe

1212
01:50:08,187 --> 01:50:14,346
this? Because I just think it's actually, it's just not very, it's just very, it's not very

1213
01:50:14,346 --> 01:50:20,666
engineering type of a thing either. It's just like this vague complaining. And there's no like,

1214
01:50:20,666 --> 01:50:27,147
it is the problem because of the, whatever, the rotation of gear three or something. So,

1215
01:50:29,067 --> 01:50:33,067
so that's kind of my view on it. I don't know if that answers the first part of your question.

1216
01:50:33,627 --> 01:50:39,306
But I think that it was broken, it was broken by the scaling war, and it will be fixed by

1217
01:50:39,306 --> 01:50:46,106
sidechains anyway, which will was just to say, a lot of the stuff will get factored out into L2s,

1218
01:50:46,666 --> 01:50:51,627
which will compete. So you'd have like, you will have like two different versions of like,

1219
01:50:52,827 --> 01:50:57,467
you would have like Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin SV as sidechains, and they would like be competing

1220
01:50:57,467 --> 01:51:02,346
in a very healthy way on features, you know, they would be like shipping code.

1221
01:51:03,947 --> 01:51:08,346
And, you know, they'll be shipping wallets and Jeremy Rubin would ship

1222
01:51:09,866 --> 01:51:15,226
119 chain, and maybe that would be the one that has ARK and Barak and they'd be hanging out over

1223
01:51:15,226 --> 01:51:19,467
there and everyone would compete, it would be like how you know, LND and declare and whatever

1224
01:51:19,467 --> 01:51:24,587
could be where it's kind of like rival risks, which is healthy, but it's, but it's not like

1225
01:51:25,387 --> 01:51:32,426
the toxicity of just like, like the intercoin competition, which is just not as healthy,

1226
01:51:32,426 --> 01:51:38,267
because it's weighed down by all this other stuff. Marketing and whatever network effects,

1227
01:51:38,267 --> 01:51:42,906
and you can't leave, you're locked in. So I'm not sure if that's a totally helping,

1228
01:51:42,906 --> 01:51:48,346
but I can try to elaborate more on what I think should happen instead. But I think we're missing

1229
01:51:48,346 --> 01:51:53,546
the bigger picture, which is that it was, it did work just fine. And it wasn't controversial.

1230
01:51:54,267 --> 01:52:00,746
After sidechains, or just even after any kind of decision, like any kind of closure on this,

1231
01:52:00,746 --> 01:52:05,947
which we still don't have, Tadge Dredge is 100% correct. Tadge Dredge is a creator of

1232
01:52:05,947 --> 01:52:09,866
Lightning Network. For those of you who don't know, he had an earlier comment about,

1233
01:52:10,827 --> 01:52:17,546
or can we talk about, are we allowed to talk about the forbidden scaling topics? So,

1234
01:52:17,546 --> 01:52:28,267
yet or no? And I think the answer is still no, unfortunately. But once all we have closure on

1235
01:52:28,267 --> 01:52:33,866
that, and one way would be sidechains, then not only will there be a lot of healthy development

1236
01:52:33,866 --> 01:52:38,827
and experimentation on L2, but there won't be as much, people won't care as much about

1237
01:52:39,947 --> 01:52:48,267
these trivial backward compatible modifications to L1, partly because it won't matter as much if

1238
01:52:48,267 --> 01:52:53,707
they happen or not, because you'll have them on L2. So, for that exact reason, the drama will go

1239
01:52:53,707 --> 01:53:00,986
away. So, that's not really an answer to part one, but that's all I got. And now I already forgot

1240
01:53:00,986 --> 01:53:06,106
what you said in the second part. Well, really, just the last little piece of that first question

1241
01:53:06,426 --> 01:53:12,666
is, is there an incentive structure, like how people are getting paid to go lobby for certain

1242
01:53:12,666 --> 01:53:22,507
bills to pass? Is there evidence, or is the BIP getting pushed? Is there a financial incentive

1243
01:53:22,507 --> 01:53:28,746
around any of them in a way that like, you know, in the past we didn't need it, but maybe we need

1244
01:53:28,746 --> 01:53:35,067
it now or something? I actually think that's probably smart. You could have a Salesforce

1245
01:53:35,067 --> 01:53:42,106
or something and a commissioned sales team because they have to sell the idea and everyone's

1246
01:53:42,106 --> 01:53:46,827
busy. And this is now, it went from being a small industry to being a huge industry. So,

1247
01:53:46,827 --> 01:53:52,187
if you're not going to be able to, you don't have specialist people who are going to go around and

1248
01:53:53,786 --> 01:54:01,707
explain the idea. Yeah, that's exactly what I mean. I think that's a good, I think that's

1249
01:54:01,707 --> 01:54:09,067
probably a good idea. People have, they're fools. I know, I know, but like, you know,

1250
01:54:09,067 --> 01:54:14,267
incentives have changed and there weren't lobbyists in 1780, but we obviously have them now, you know?

1251
01:54:15,147 --> 01:54:21,546
Yeah. And people don't really like, you know, of course lobbyists is a sign of a disconnect between

1252
01:54:23,387 --> 01:54:29,786
the voter and the representative, which is some people interpret as sort of like a friction.

1253
01:54:30,746 --> 01:54:35,306
But it's also hard because the voters are not informed, you know, something like whatever,

1254
01:54:35,306 --> 01:54:43,067
75% of the voters cannot name their, whatever, representative, senator of which they're.

1255
01:54:43,067 --> 01:54:47,866
And maybe Bitcoin is not like best comparable to the U.S. Congress. Like we didn't have,

1256
01:54:47,866 --> 01:54:51,546
you know, James Madison and we don't have amendments and we don't have all of those

1257
01:54:51,546 --> 01:54:57,226
things. But like, that's just a metaphor. I try to understand it. But my second thing was basically,

1258
01:54:57,226 --> 01:55:02,587
since you understand some of the history and you kind of pontificated this scenario in another

1259
01:55:02,587 --> 01:55:08,106
multiverse of what would happen if the miners would have orphaned blocks. I'm curious on,

1260
01:55:08,746 --> 01:55:12,986
if something like that would have happened, what would have happened with transaction

1261
01:55:12,986 --> 01:55:17,786
malleability and the ASICBoost that Greg Maxwell found in the Antminer chips?

1262
01:55:18,746 --> 01:55:27,387
Right. Okay. So first ASICBoost, my view is that even though Greg, I don't doubt that he

1263
01:55:28,106 --> 01:55:33,707
reverse engineered the chip and found the covert ASICBoost. But what I do doubt is that it was

1264
01:55:33,707 --> 01:55:40,507
being deployed on an enormous scale such that this affected the block size decision. I mean,

1265
01:55:40,587 --> 01:55:49,546
Greg's story, I don't buy it. You know, I think Greg is super smart, but I don't buy all his

1266
01:55:49,546 --> 01:55:56,666
stories. Sometimes he becomes very paranoid in my humble opinion. And so what he's trying to say is

1267
01:55:56,666 --> 01:56:04,587
that no one really, Bitmain never really cared about, like they don't care about the block size

1268
01:56:04,587 --> 01:56:09,786
debate. They just wanted to maintain their advantage, their competitive advantage with

1269
01:56:09,786 --> 01:56:18,187
ASICBoost. And that is why they rejected SegWit. But to me, it's clear that all the large blockers

1270
01:56:18,187 --> 01:56:26,106
were very sincere. They really wanted their large block thing and they were eyeing Bitmain activation

1271
01:56:26,106 --> 01:56:36,267
of SegWit. And because of the history of Bitcoin, SegWit is a very, very unusual soft fork,

1272
01:56:36,267 --> 01:56:43,067
because it happened to also be, it was really kind of a hard fork. It was not, as I may have

1273
01:56:43,067 --> 01:56:48,666
explained a few times, hard fork and soft fork, they have two different definitions that sometimes

1274
01:56:48,666 --> 01:56:54,267
are the same, sometimes are unrelated, and in some ways are exact opposites of each other.

1275
01:56:54,346 --> 01:56:59,786
So, but in terms of, SegWit loosened the rules because it was a four megabyte,

1276
01:57:01,067 --> 01:57:07,786
it was a block size increase. So, but it was fully backward compatible. So,

1277
01:57:08,506 --> 01:57:12,026
this is a complicated point that I could re-explain if anyone's interested, but

1278
01:57:12,906 --> 01:57:18,747
the point is, from the point of view of the large blockers, they were told we can never increase

1279
01:57:18,747 --> 01:57:23,707
the block size because that would be a hard fork. Hard fork bad, hard fork bad, hard fork bad,

1280
01:57:23,707 --> 01:57:29,707
block size limit is, it's like the speed of light, we can't break it. And then all of a sudden,

1281
01:57:29,707 --> 01:57:35,546
at scaling two, you know, Peter Wilde comes out and pulls this rabbit out of a hat,

1282
01:57:35,546 --> 01:57:42,347
really was sort of Luke Dashjr's idea, I think, at first. But the point is, this idea shows up,

1283
01:57:43,386 --> 01:57:46,906
oh, we can actually increase the block size with a soft fork.

1284
01:57:46,906 --> 01:57:59,386
So, this is, it's like, it's just very confusing to the large blockers. It makes it look like

1285
01:57:59,386 --> 01:58:03,626
there's a group of people who can do whatever they want, and then the technical people,

1286
01:58:03,626 --> 01:58:08,187
and then we cannot do anything. We, the large blockers, we never get our way.

1287
01:58:08,987 --> 01:58:14,107
They said this was impossible, but now it's possible. They wanted, Mike Kern wanted eight

1288
01:58:14,107 --> 01:58:23,146
megabytes with Bitcoin XT, then they wanted this Bitcoin Classic two megabyte hard fork,

1289
01:58:24,347 --> 01:58:29,626
and then they can't get, but they could get it if they get SegWit. So, the whole thing had become

1290
01:58:30,666 --> 01:58:35,867
confusing, and just the way all the different chess pieces had fallen. I think that I would

1291
01:58:35,867 --> 01:58:41,227
just like to be clear with everyone that I'm not 100% certain that my version is the right version

1292
01:58:41,227 --> 01:58:47,146
of, but all I can do is tell you my honest opinion of what happened, the way it looks from

1293
01:58:47,146 --> 01:58:52,506
my point of view. And a historian can assemble all this later, but from my point of view,

1294
01:58:52,506 --> 01:58:56,187
it really looked like a bunch of chess pieces had fallen down. It's kind of like you woke up,

1295
01:58:56,187 --> 01:59:02,747
and someone has a gun, and someone has a shield, and so the person grabs the gun,

1296
01:59:02,747 --> 01:59:06,107
and the person grabs the shield, and the next thing you know, bullets are colliding with the

1297
01:59:06,107 --> 01:59:11,467
shield. You know what I mean? It just sort of happened that the miners fell in with the

1298
01:59:11,467 --> 01:59:18,426
large block group, the small block people were the technical people that invented SegWit,

1299
01:59:19,146 --> 01:59:26,666
and BIP9, it had always activated with 95% hash rate signal. So, they thought,

1300
01:59:26,666 --> 01:59:32,026
oh, we have the large blockers thought, oh, we have this thing we can withhold to get what we

1301
01:59:32,026 --> 01:59:36,906
want. So, I'm kind of rambling again, and I apologize for that, but it's kind of like the

1302
01:59:36,906 --> 01:59:43,786
story is ASICBoost is so important, but there's really no reason to. It's really not. The ASIC

1303
01:59:43,786 --> 01:59:51,227
boost, one of the smoking guns is that when SegWit actually did activate, which was not that long

1304
01:59:51,227 --> 01:59:56,906
after this whole covert ASICBoost thing was discovered, you know, less than a year,

1305
01:59:56,906 --> 02:00:02,987
six months, maybe, probably less than that. Someone can look it up, and maybe it was like...

1306
02:00:03,351 --> 02:00:08,351
I don't know, like winter to August 1st or less.

1307
02:00:09,351 --> 02:00:12,831
So, it wasn't that long, SegWit activates.

1308
02:00:12,831 --> 02:00:17,831
This is supposedly going to brick all of the ASICBoost.

1309
02:00:18,631 --> 02:00:23,631
So, the hash rate should at least fall by some amount, right?

1310
02:00:24,430 --> 02:00:26,911
It should be like whatever percent bit mains is,

1311
02:00:26,911 --> 02:00:29,670
and whatever percent they lose by not doing ASICBoost,

1312
02:00:29,670 --> 02:00:31,071
or maybe they had specialized chips

1313
02:00:31,071 --> 02:00:33,270
that were relying on that, or...

1314
02:00:33,270 --> 02:00:34,270
So, the hash rate should fall,

1315
02:00:34,270 --> 02:00:35,470
but the hash rate doesn't fall at all.

1316
02:00:35,470 --> 02:00:37,871
It seems to be totally and completely unaffected.

1317
02:00:40,431 --> 02:00:42,150
So, I don't know, I just don't buy the story

1318
02:00:42,150 --> 02:00:44,630
that it had anything to do with covert ASICBoost.

1319
02:00:44,630 --> 02:00:47,551
I think they were just researching a lot of stuff.

1320
02:00:47,551 --> 02:00:51,551
There's the overt ASICBoost and covert.

1321
02:00:51,551 --> 02:00:56,191
Only covert ASICBoost was affected by SegWit.

1322
02:00:56,191 --> 02:00:58,350
I don't think they were technical enough

1323
02:00:58,350 --> 02:01:00,150
to even uncover this,

1324
02:01:01,391 --> 02:01:03,791
or really understand how to exploit it.

1325
02:01:04,670 --> 02:01:06,431
So, I don't know, this is just my opinion

1326
02:01:06,431 --> 02:01:09,871
that I think it was unrelated.

1327
02:01:11,711 --> 02:01:13,590
I think that's very valid.

1328
02:01:13,590 --> 02:01:16,310
My view from the whole situation,

1329
02:01:16,310 --> 02:01:19,071
because I got to talk with Eric Lambroso a lot

1330
02:01:19,071 --> 02:01:21,031
about what was happening when it was happening,

1331
02:01:21,031 --> 02:01:23,111
and he did some work there.

1332
02:01:23,111 --> 02:01:25,350
I come from a military intelligence house,

1333
02:01:25,350 --> 02:01:27,471
so I'm not a statistician like you.

1334
02:01:27,511 --> 02:01:30,071
I think about all of the people trying to kill each other

1335
02:01:30,071 --> 02:01:33,230
and the New World Order stuff.

1336
02:01:33,230 --> 02:01:34,511
Who's spying on who?

1337
02:01:34,511 --> 02:01:37,711
And I was very curious on who was funding the things.

1338
02:01:37,711 --> 02:01:41,230
I found the patents around all that stuff interesting,

1339
02:01:41,230 --> 02:01:43,871
and who was getting VC money and who wasn't.

1340
02:01:43,871 --> 02:01:46,431
And so, I wonder about the incentives a lot,

1341
02:01:46,431 --> 02:01:51,350
since we have fees, Coinbase, we have replaced by fee.

1342
02:01:51,350 --> 02:01:53,511
Bitcoin's very incentive structured.

1343
02:01:53,511 --> 02:01:55,910
So, I wonder about the people incentives,

1344
02:01:55,910 --> 02:01:59,151
and who's getting incentivized and who's not,

1345
02:01:59,151 --> 02:02:01,071
and why are we not incentivizing?

1346
02:02:01,071 --> 02:02:05,111
If they're incentivizing, because if it's like chess

1347
02:02:05,111 --> 02:02:07,151
and a game theory kind of situation,

1348
02:02:09,071 --> 02:02:11,031
if that's why all that chaos happened,

1349
02:02:11,031 --> 02:02:13,270
because people were getting paid by other people

1350
02:02:13,270 --> 02:02:15,031
to promote certain things,

1351
02:02:15,031 --> 02:02:17,830
which is kind of what I thought was happening back then,

1352
02:02:18,791 --> 02:02:22,871
why are us engineering, Bitcoin loving people

1353
02:02:22,871 --> 02:02:25,390
not playing that incentives game?

1354
02:02:26,231 --> 02:02:27,311
Why aren't we?

1355
02:02:27,311 --> 02:02:30,990
Is it like a moral thing, or is it we just wanna lose

1356
02:02:30,990 --> 02:02:34,910
because incentives always win over non-incentives?

1357
02:02:34,910 --> 02:02:37,830
So, I'm just wondering BIPs and changes

1358
02:02:37,830 --> 02:02:40,511
and promoting these technical ideas,

1359
02:02:40,511 --> 02:02:41,871
if they're not being funded,

1360
02:02:41,871 --> 02:02:44,350
like how Square and Block is funding

1361
02:02:44,350 --> 02:02:45,951
Lightning and core developers,

1362
02:02:45,951 --> 02:02:49,791
they're like incentivizing a development this direction.

1363
02:02:49,791 --> 02:02:53,511
I'm wondering, are we missing an incentive route

1364
02:02:53,511 --> 02:02:58,071
to incentivize things like BIP300 and OP_CAT

1365
02:02:58,071 --> 02:02:59,830
and all of the other stuff?

1366
02:03:01,791 --> 02:03:02,871
Yeah, it's kind of like a NATO,

1367
02:03:02,871 --> 02:03:06,350
like what Eisenhower said about,

1368
02:03:06,350 --> 02:03:08,830
if the free nations don't stand together,

1369
02:03:08,830 --> 02:03:10,711
they'll be destroyed at one by one.

1370
02:03:10,711 --> 02:03:13,671
I was the British guy who said the one by one line.

1371
02:03:13,671 --> 02:03:14,951
Yeah.

1372
02:03:14,951 --> 02:03:16,951
But he was like, one by one,

1373
02:03:16,951 --> 02:03:19,031
that was the evil stratagem or something

1374
02:03:19,031 --> 02:03:24,031
of Hitler and Stalin in Eastern Europe.

1375
02:03:24,031 --> 02:03:26,550
So yeah, like something like that.

1376
02:03:26,550 --> 02:03:30,231
I don't know, such things are very,

1377
02:03:31,591 --> 02:03:33,550
I think we're already very close, honestly.

1378
02:03:33,550 --> 02:03:34,951
We just need to get this one,

1379
02:03:34,951 --> 02:03:36,110
we just need to escape

1380
02:03:36,110 --> 02:03:40,231
and get like some critical amount of functionality.

1381
02:03:40,231 --> 02:03:42,151
And then it will all be more like ordinals

1382
02:03:42,151 --> 02:03:45,470
where it's like you can't stop people from doing it

1383
02:03:45,470 --> 02:03:47,910
and people complain, but it kind of won't matter

1384
02:03:48,871 --> 02:03:51,031
because it should all be based on the fee.

1385
02:03:51,031 --> 02:03:55,910
It should not be based on the color of your skin

1386
02:03:55,910 --> 02:03:58,990
or what you had in mind for the transaction

1387
02:03:58,990 --> 02:04:03,550
or what other stuff the transaction is going to be a part of.

1388
02:04:03,550 --> 02:04:06,270
Should just matter if it takes up the fee.

1389
02:04:06,270 --> 02:04:10,190
And I think we're very close to,

1390
02:04:12,231 --> 02:04:14,071
but yeah, it's a very good question.

1391
02:04:15,071 --> 02:04:16,390
Well, that's all I wanted to ask.

1392
02:04:16,390 --> 02:04:20,990
So I'll step down, but thanks for honoring that with me.

1393
02:04:20,990 --> 02:04:24,311
Yes, what I had in mind was that the,

1394
02:04:24,311 --> 02:04:27,510
for 2017 was that the miners, the other,

1395
02:04:27,510 --> 02:04:28,591
because there was more,

1396
02:04:28,591 --> 02:04:32,191
it seemed to be like more than half the miners

1397
02:04:32,191 --> 02:04:35,110
supported SegWit and there was only Bitmain

1398
02:04:35,110 --> 02:04:40,031
and the other Bitmain people who were trying to withhold.

1399
02:04:42,471 --> 02:04:44,670
They were trying to block SegWit

1400
02:04:44,670 --> 02:04:46,871
and it was unclear if they would have,

1401
02:04:46,871 --> 02:04:48,591
maybe they were only a vocal minority.

1402
02:04:48,591 --> 02:04:51,031
So instead of what we, what you could have done

1403
02:04:51,031 --> 02:04:55,070
is just had the majority outvote the minority

1404
02:04:58,751 --> 02:05:02,431
and they would then have just activated SegWit

1405
02:05:02,431 --> 02:05:03,270
and they would have just,

1406
02:05:03,270 --> 02:05:05,151
these people would have just been sore losers.

1407
02:05:05,151 --> 02:05:06,790
You know, because it's like,

1408
02:05:06,790 --> 02:05:10,270
does Jihan Wu's opinion represent all of Bitcoin?

1409
02:05:10,270 --> 02:05:14,431
Well, if you have 95% hash rate threshold,

1410
02:05:15,191 --> 02:05:18,950
then anyone with 6% can, it's really a 6%,

1411
02:05:18,950 --> 02:05:20,711
it's a rule of the 6%.

1412
02:05:20,711 --> 02:05:24,751
And so, but instead of that, we did this UASF thing

1413
02:05:24,751 --> 02:05:26,390
and we created this completely different thing,

1414
02:05:26,390 --> 02:05:29,351
which is like a Twitter governance,

1415
02:05:29,351 --> 02:05:31,151
which I think has been way worse.

1416
02:05:32,191 --> 02:05:34,911
At least the miners have skin in the game.

1417
02:05:34,911 --> 02:05:37,471
So I think that would have been much better.

1418
02:05:37,471 --> 02:05:39,871
Anyway, now we have a Justin75IQ.

1419
02:05:40,550 --> 02:05:41,911
Yeah, I totally agree with you.

1420
02:05:41,911 --> 02:05:43,390
Like, can you hear me?

1421
02:05:44,270 --> 02:05:45,471
Yes, I can hear you, yes.

1422
02:05:45,471 --> 02:05:46,311
Okay, sorry.

1423
02:05:47,670 --> 02:05:49,431
We got to get the personalities out

1424
02:05:49,431 --> 02:05:52,510
and get the egos out and the politics

1425
02:05:52,510 --> 02:05:55,070
and just focus on the ideas.

1426
02:05:55,070 --> 02:05:57,390
Do the ideas rise to the level of,

1427
02:05:58,351 --> 02:06:00,591
okay, is this objectively a good idea?

1428
02:06:04,550 --> 02:06:05,550
Yeah.

1429
02:06:05,550 --> 02:06:06,751
Yeah, I agree with that.

1430
02:06:07,591 --> 02:06:08,830
Yeah, I agree with that.

1431
02:06:09,830 --> 02:06:11,711
That would be the ideal thing.

1432
02:06:11,711 --> 02:06:14,031
Of course, everyone always says,

1433
02:06:14,911 --> 02:06:17,790
I am being objective, you know, when they're not.

1434
02:06:17,790 --> 02:06:20,911
So it's a trickier thing.

1435
02:06:20,911 --> 02:06:24,390
But I think that this idea of having the miners,

1436
02:06:24,390 --> 02:06:29,390
having the threshold be 51%,

1437
02:06:29,591 --> 02:06:31,711
that was this Westminster thing

1438
02:06:32,790 --> 02:06:35,871
that I was alluding to before,

1439
02:06:35,871 --> 02:06:37,311
where it's kind of like,

1440
02:06:40,711 --> 02:06:45,351
you just, you have a competitive struggle

1441
02:06:45,351 --> 02:06:50,351
in a healthy way because trying to get to 95,

1442
02:06:52,990 --> 02:06:56,191
I think has kind of messed us up a little bit.

1443
02:06:57,431 --> 02:07:00,591
And now it's become this battle over consensus.

1444
02:07:00,591 --> 02:07:01,431
I don't know.

1445
02:07:01,431 --> 02:07:03,550
I just think, if I could choose,

1446
02:07:03,550 --> 02:07:04,871
I would rather live in the world

1447
02:07:04,871 --> 02:07:09,871
where SegWit activated via miners,

1448
02:07:10,351 --> 02:07:14,151
simply activating it like in early,

1449
02:07:14,151 --> 02:07:17,950
it would be like spring 2017.

1450
02:07:17,950 --> 02:07:20,550
And then what would have happened then

1451
02:07:20,550 --> 02:07:21,751
would have been there could not have possibly

1452
02:07:21,751 --> 02:07:23,390
been a SegWit2x agreement.

1453
02:07:24,670 --> 02:07:29,670
And if there was going to be a Bitcoin Cash,

1454
02:07:30,670 --> 02:07:34,911
it would have probably been later than August 1,

1455
02:07:34,911 --> 02:07:36,510
because people would have tried out

1456
02:07:36,510 --> 02:07:39,911
the extra two megabytes worth of 2.1,

1457
02:07:39,911 --> 02:07:42,711
the 1.3 megabytes of space that were added.

1458
02:07:44,550 --> 02:07:49,550
And then they would have,

1459
02:07:52,151 --> 02:07:53,270
I don't know.

1460
02:07:53,270 --> 02:07:54,631
I just think the whole thing would have worked out

1461
02:07:54,631 --> 02:07:58,871
a lot better because you'd be in a situation

1462
02:07:58,911 --> 02:08:02,950
where people are competing on the right things

1463
02:08:02,950 --> 02:08:04,790
for the right reasons.

1464
02:08:04,790 --> 02:08:07,471
And you have this big movement.

1465
02:08:07,471 --> 02:08:10,191
I think it was Joseph Schumpeter who said,

1466
02:08:12,830 --> 02:08:15,110
the people can only express their opinion

1467
02:08:15,110 --> 02:08:16,631
as a stampede or something.

1468
02:08:19,070 --> 02:08:19,990
So if that's all you have,

1469
02:08:19,990 --> 02:08:23,471
then you need to have all these fine-tuned things

1470
02:08:23,471 --> 02:08:25,151
stepping out in front of that

1471
02:08:25,151 --> 02:08:28,070
to present people with like two options.

1472
02:08:29,871 --> 02:08:32,550
Anyway, I don't know if I'm gonna be able

1473
02:08:32,550 --> 02:08:34,471
to explain that very clearly,

1474
02:08:34,471 --> 02:08:37,111
but that's kind of my thought.

1475
02:08:38,031 --> 02:08:39,991
I'm still going through the Block Size War

1476
02:08:39,991 --> 02:08:40,830
and reading through it.

1477
02:08:40,830 --> 02:08:44,430
And it's really a fascinating book.

1478
02:08:45,991 --> 02:08:48,231
I think everyone should read it

1479
02:08:48,231 --> 02:08:49,630
who's interested in Bitcoin.

1480
02:08:52,630 --> 02:08:55,510
Certainly its importance cannot be understated.

1481
02:08:56,510 --> 02:09:00,911
It determines today what can be spoken about

1482
02:09:00,911 --> 02:09:05,911
and which things get how much funding and attention,

1483
02:09:06,711 --> 02:09:09,750
which is very irrational.

1484
02:09:11,151 --> 02:09:13,630
And people still care so much.

1485
02:09:13,630 --> 02:09:16,190
Even you have someone like Tadge Dreija

1486
02:09:16,190 --> 02:09:20,151
who is one of the two inventors of the Lightning Network.

1487
02:09:20,151 --> 02:09:22,430
Do you think they'd be so prestigious

1488
02:09:22,430 --> 02:09:24,310
that anything they say would be held?

1489
02:09:25,551 --> 02:09:28,591
On a throne or a pedestal.

1490
02:09:30,190 --> 02:09:34,630
But no, it's still because they only test the waters

1491
02:09:34,630 --> 02:09:37,750
and it's like, are we ever going to get out from under this?

1492
02:09:37,750 --> 02:09:40,711
And just the, so many people reacted

1493
02:09:40,711 --> 02:09:42,671
in such a vicious and terrible way

1494
02:09:42,671 --> 02:09:45,870
where they were like emotionally involved.

1495
02:09:45,870 --> 02:09:46,711
And then they were like,

1496
02:09:46,711 --> 02:09:49,151
I'm gonna get revenge on such and such.

1497
02:09:49,151 --> 02:09:51,111
And it's all very, very, very bad

1498
02:09:51,111 --> 02:09:52,991
for making Bitcoin a success

1499
02:09:52,991 --> 02:09:55,791
and defeat the banks and take over the world.

1500
02:09:55,791 --> 02:09:58,791
It's just really, really terrible.

1501
02:09:58,791 --> 02:10:01,870
And almost everyone started directing all their firepower

1502
02:10:01,870 --> 02:10:04,270
at other Bitcoiners.

1503
02:10:04,270 --> 02:10:06,070
And it's completely different.

1504
02:10:06,070 --> 02:10:08,231
It used to be a very, very fun atmosphere.

1505
02:10:08,231 --> 02:10:10,031
It was very loose.

1506
02:10:10,031 --> 02:10:12,830
It had really no political connotations either.

1507
02:10:12,830 --> 02:10:17,111
Bitcoin, there wasn't like a right thing necessarily

1508
02:10:17,111 --> 02:10:19,151
just for what's that worth, for what that's worth.

1509
02:10:19,151 --> 02:10:21,671
I tried to just bring that up because that is,

1510
02:10:21,671 --> 02:10:24,070
it just speaks to the totalitarian character

1511
02:10:24,070 --> 02:10:29,070
of like the cult that emerged

1512
02:10:29,070 --> 02:10:33,031
from the winning small blocker side.

1513
02:10:35,791 --> 02:10:40,510
I think too, the book really showed the importance.

1514
02:10:40,510 --> 02:10:43,430
Oh, when I meant politics, I didn't mean like,

1515
02:10:43,430 --> 02:10:45,711
left, right, vote this, vote that,

1516
02:10:45,711 --> 02:10:49,791
just the politics of Bitcoin.

1517
02:10:51,671 --> 02:10:55,190
I think the point of the book is that if an idea is really,

1518
02:10:58,591 --> 02:11:01,750
the importance of really listening to people,

1519
02:11:01,750 --> 02:11:04,791
I think is brought out in the book.

1520
02:11:04,791 --> 02:11:09,151
That to kind of, to get people to actually listen to you,

1521
02:11:09,151 --> 02:11:10,430
like to me personally,

1522
02:11:10,430 --> 02:11:13,151
I have to be a good listener to others.

1523
02:11:13,151 --> 02:11:17,231
And that was something that you can see breaking down.

1524
02:11:18,231 --> 02:11:21,151
And then you see people's true nature.

1525
02:11:21,190 --> 02:11:23,471
Like you see Roger Ver,

1526
02:11:23,471 --> 02:11:27,231
and certainly he did a lot of great things for Bitcoin

1527
02:11:27,231 --> 02:11:31,031
in the early days in promoting it,

1528
02:11:31,031 --> 02:11:35,151
but you see his true nature kind of come out.

1529
02:11:35,151 --> 02:11:39,111
And the overarching part of the book,

1530
02:11:39,111 --> 02:11:42,671
I think is that the,

1531
02:11:44,151 --> 02:11:49,151
it's not just should an idea be good,

1532
02:11:49,870 --> 02:11:54,870
or technically have good fundamentals,

1533
02:11:56,390 --> 02:12:00,671
but is it like a really, really good idea?

1534
02:12:00,671 --> 02:12:05,070
Is it something that makes sense?

1535
02:12:05,070 --> 02:12:08,630
Like, something I'm curious about,

1536
02:12:08,630 --> 02:12:11,430
because you know a lot about the early history of Bitcoin.

1537
02:12:13,591 --> 02:12:18,591
No one can find, like, is there any comment

1538
02:12:19,510 --> 02:12:23,830
on Satoshi making that change, or did he leave?

1539
02:12:23,830 --> 02:12:26,510
Like when he checks the code into,

1540
02:12:26,510 --> 02:12:29,551
specifically to SourceForge, CVS,

1541
02:12:29,551 --> 02:12:32,231
because I don't think we can find that commit history

1542
02:12:32,231 --> 02:12:34,351
anymore on SourceForge,

1543
02:12:34,351 --> 02:12:38,430
when he made the one megabyte limit way back.

1544
02:12:38,430 --> 02:12:40,671
And obviously Satoshi is someone who,

1545
02:12:40,671 --> 02:12:42,510
he wouldn't just be rigid.

1546
02:12:42,510 --> 02:12:44,310
He would have changed.

1547
02:12:44,310 --> 02:12:46,870
He would have tested his ideas

1548
02:12:46,870 --> 02:12:49,510
and made changes as he went along.

1549
02:12:51,950 --> 02:12:55,031
Yeah, I haven't looked into this in enormous detail,

1550
02:12:55,031 --> 02:12:56,830
and you can make like two columns,

1551
02:12:56,830 --> 02:12:59,911
and you can see like Satoshi was a small blocker,

1552
02:12:59,911 --> 02:13:01,551
Satoshi was a large blocker.

1553
02:13:02,711 --> 02:13:05,591
He made many comments that would indicate

1554
02:13:05,591 --> 02:13:07,231
that he is a large block.

1555
02:13:07,231 --> 02:13:09,351
Obviously, I hope I don't need to tell you,

1556
02:13:09,351 --> 02:13:11,750
all the small blockers are convinced

1557
02:13:11,750 --> 02:13:13,310
that Satoshi is a small blocker,

1558
02:13:13,310 --> 02:13:15,270
and all the large blockers are convinced

1559
02:13:15,310 --> 02:13:18,111
that Satoshi is a large blocker.

1560
02:13:18,111 --> 02:13:21,750
So often you get nowhere by talking to these poor people,

1561
02:13:21,750 --> 02:13:25,911
but you can make columns, as I have.

1562
02:13:25,911 --> 02:13:29,111
And he has made many, many large blocker comments,

1563
02:13:29,111 --> 02:13:34,111
and he certainly seemed to be a large blocker at first.

1564
02:13:34,190 --> 02:13:37,151
The intriguing thing is that he is the one

1565
02:13:37,151 --> 02:13:42,151
who himself inserted the one megabyte block size limit.

1566
02:13:42,310 --> 02:13:46,830
And he wrote, it's true that after he did that,

1567
02:13:48,430 --> 02:13:49,510
people asked him about it,

1568
02:13:49,510 --> 02:13:52,471
and he said he wrote about a way of phasing it out.

1569
02:13:53,510 --> 02:13:54,791
So of course it goes back and forth,

1570
02:13:54,791 --> 02:13:55,630
this is what I'm trying to tell you,

1571
02:13:55,630 --> 02:13:57,390
is it really does go back and forth,

1572
02:13:57,390 --> 02:13:59,870
like it's right down the line.

1573
02:13:59,870 --> 02:14:04,031
And he explains we could phase the limit out later,

1574
02:14:04,031 --> 02:14:07,950
but then what he does is he intentionally leaves the project

1575
02:14:07,950 --> 02:14:09,630
and he does not give any,

1576
02:14:10,270 --> 02:14:15,151
he doesn't like add the phase out and then leave,

1577
02:14:15,151 --> 02:14:16,671
or he doesn't like leave a comment,

1578
02:14:16,671 --> 02:14:18,190
oh, be sure to phase that out.

1579
02:14:20,031 --> 02:14:24,151
So it's totally ambiguous as to whether or not,

1580
02:14:24,151 --> 02:14:26,031
you can interpret however you like,

1581
02:14:26,031 --> 02:14:28,630
you can say he never wanted it to phase out,

1582
02:14:28,630 --> 02:14:31,190
and he was just telling people that to get rid of them,

1583
02:14:31,190 --> 02:14:34,591
knowing that the limit would stay.

1584
02:14:34,591 --> 02:14:37,231
Or you can say that he wanted to phase the limit out,

1585
02:14:37,231 --> 02:14:39,471
but he was like hit by a car or something

1586
02:14:40,310 --> 02:14:41,151
before he could get to it.

1587
02:14:42,070 --> 02:14:44,310
Or you could say anything in between.

1588
02:14:45,471 --> 02:14:47,471
But it's very, very,

1589
02:14:47,471 --> 02:14:50,950
but there's quite a lot of evidence on the difference

1590
02:14:50,950 --> 02:14:52,671
on in both columns.

1591
02:14:54,351 --> 02:14:56,911
It's kind of just like the Bible in a way,

1592
02:14:56,911 --> 02:15:00,231
where you can, if you want something on love,

1593
02:15:00,231 --> 02:15:02,750
you can go into the New Testament

1594
02:15:02,750 --> 02:15:05,671
and find something on forgiveness and love.

1595
02:15:05,671 --> 02:15:08,950
And then if you want something on justice

1596
02:15:09,551 --> 02:15:13,911
and sternly obeying rules,

1597
02:15:13,911 --> 02:15:16,151
then you can go into the Old Testament

1598
02:15:16,151 --> 02:15:17,750
and you can just kind of fish out of that book,

1599
02:15:17,750 --> 02:15:18,911
whatever you like, you know?

1600
02:15:18,911 --> 02:15:21,031
And then as people do,

1601
02:15:21,031 --> 02:15:24,390
and as people certainly also do with the Quran, et cetera.

1602
02:15:24,390 --> 02:15:28,870
So they just, unfortunately it's not,

1603
02:15:29,991 --> 02:15:31,190
it's far from clear.

1604
02:15:32,830 --> 02:15:36,070
In my opinion, it's very ambiguous.

1605
02:15:36,911 --> 02:15:38,830
He certainly seemed, he definitely,

1606
02:15:38,830 --> 02:15:40,551
this was pro-merge mining though.

1607
02:15:40,551 --> 02:15:43,070
And he thought that there would just be many blockchains.

1608
02:15:43,070 --> 02:15:44,031
That's what's very funny,

1609
02:15:44,031 --> 02:15:47,630
is one thing that he seems to take completely for granted

1610
02:15:47,630 --> 02:15:52,630
is something that later everyone hates, except for me.

1611
02:15:56,390 --> 02:15:58,551
Yeah, I'd like to block sizes.

1612
02:15:58,551 --> 02:16:00,151
Obviously in the early days,

1613
02:16:00,151 --> 02:16:05,151
Satoshi paid attention to the network very closely.

1614
02:16:07,070 --> 02:16:12,070
And to the block sizes, and isn't that correct?

1615
02:16:13,070 --> 02:16:17,151
Like in the original, before he enacted the one megabyte

1616
02:16:17,151 --> 02:16:19,991
limit, and he really didn't tell anyone.

1617
02:16:19,991 --> 02:16:21,630
He just kind of made the commit

1618
02:16:22,551 --> 02:16:24,791
and then other people noticed it.

1619
02:16:24,791 --> 02:16:26,911
But before he made that commit,

1620
02:16:28,830 --> 02:16:30,551
what were the block sizes?

1621
02:16:31,551 --> 02:16:32,991
Oh, they were never above,

1622
02:16:34,151 --> 02:16:35,950
they weren't anywhere close to one megabyte.

1623
02:16:35,950 --> 02:16:40,950
So you did not have the, I don't know,

1624
02:16:40,950 --> 02:16:42,911
it's an intriguing question as to why this is,

1625
02:16:42,911 --> 02:16:47,911
but the block sizes really, they rose more or less linearly.

1626
02:16:48,430 --> 02:16:51,591
So they started very low and then they, you kind of grew,

1627
02:16:51,591 --> 02:16:55,991
the graph was just a diagonal line up.

1628
02:16:55,991 --> 02:16:58,950
And of course it had different spikes and noise.

1629
02:16:59,591 --> 02:17:00,750
But it was not,

1630
02:17:00,750 --> 02:17:02,310
it's not like there were all these different block sizes.

1631
02:17:02,310 --> 02:17:05,430
It was like, you know, one 10th of a megabyte,

1632
02:17:06,510 --> 02:17:10,351
two 10ths of a megabyte, kind of creeping up.

1633
02:17:10,351 --> 02:17:12,991
That was back in 2010.

1634
02:17:12,991 --> 02:17:16,310
He added the limit in 2010, when it was still very small.

1635
02:17:16,310 --> 02:17:17,150
Interesting.

1636
02:17:18,030 --> 02:17:21,550
Was there some kind of limit or was it just my memory?

1637
02:17:21,550 --> 02:17:23,631
I seem to remember some discussion about-

1638
02:17:23,631 --> 02:17:26,190
Well, there was a limited, but this was not,

1639
02:17:26,190 --> 02:17:29,271
there was a 32, I believe, megabyte limit

1640
02:17:29,271 --> 02:17:32,511
in terms of how many, the size of the message

1641
02:17:32,511 --> 02:17:35,991
you could pass to the software to have it interpret

1642
02:17:37,391 --> 02:17:38,631
that as just a message.

1643
02:17:38,631 --> 02:17:41,070
I don't think that was even specific to blocks though.

1644
02:17:41,070 --> 02:17:43,471
I think that was just like kind of any message.

1645
02:17:43,471 --> 02:17:46,790
So again, it's a little muddy,

1646
02:17:46,790 --> 02:17:49,591
but there was an implied limit that was,

1647
02:17:49,591 --> 02:17:51,030
but you see there's a very big difference

1648
02:17:51,030 --> 02:17:54,271
between an implied limit and an implied limit.

1649
02:17:54,391 --> 02:17:56,950
Big difference between an implied limit

1650
02:17:56,950 --> 02:18:01,950
and one that is hard-coded

1651
02:18:01,950 --> 02:18:04,991
into the validation rules of the protocol.

1652
02:18:04,991 --> 02:18:07,070
It says the block can never be,

1653
02:18:07,070 --> 02:18:08,430
you understand what I'm trying to say?

1654
02:18:08,430 --> 02:18:10,310
It's kind of like if there was no speed limit,

1655
02:18:10,310 --> 02:18:12,430
but no one had made a car that could go

1656
02:18:12,430 --> 02:18:15,231
above a hundred miles an hour, you know,

1657
02:18:15,231 --> 02:18:18,471
in 19 whatever, 50 or something.

1658
02:18:19,550 --> 02:18:22,310
So it's kind of like there was no speed limit,

1659
02:18:22,310 --> 02:18:25,150
but there was indirectly a speed limit.

1660
02:18:25,150 --> 02:18:27,231
So, and then later on.

1661
02:18:29,471 --> 02:18:31,950
It was like a unspoken sort of rule.

1662
02:18:33,910 --> 02:18:37,070
Like there would have been no reason to put in a,

1663
02:18:37,070 --> 02:18:39,111
when the limit was 32 megabytes

1664
02:18:39,111 --> 02:18:44,111
and the actual blocks are, were literally, you know,

1665
02:18:46,030 --> 02:18:47,670
I don't know, like a hundred, you know,

1666
02:18:47,670 --> 02:18:50,550
much thousands, a hundred times smaller than that.

1667
02:18:52,471 --> 02:18:54,471
That would not have been on anyone's mind.

1668
02:18:54,471 --> 02:18:55,310
You know what I mean?

1669
02:18:55,310 --> 02:18:56,150
That would be like having a speed limit

1670
02:18:56,150 --> 02:18:59,271
of like 8,000 miles an hour or something.

1671
02:18:59,271 --> 02:19:01,351
You'd just be like, what?

1672
02:19:01,351 --> 02:19:02,830
So there was none.

1673
02:19:02,830 --> 02:19:03,910
There was a period where there was,

1674
02:19:03,910 --> 02:19:05,910
but that was the only limit.

1675
02:19:06,871 --> 02:19:09,550
And of course, intriguingly,

1676
02:19:11,830 --> 02:19:13,430
there would be other limits

1677
02:19:13,430 --> 02:19:15,391
that would just cause the software to crash.

1678
02:19:15,391 --> 02:19:17,351
Of course, if you stress tested it,

1679
02:19:18,391 --> 02:19:19,471
there would eventually be something

1680
02:19:19,471 --> 02:19:21,670
that just caused the software to just like, you know,

1681
02:19:22,030 --> 02:19:25,430
hit some kind of like performance issue and crash.

1682
02:19:25,430 --> 02:19:28,150
And of course there is always the case

1683
02:19:28,150 --> 02:19:33,150
that if the block takes more than 10 minutes to download,

1684
02:19:34,351 --> 02:19:36,271
that will destroy the network basically.

1685
02:19:36,271 --> 02:19:38,070
I mean, if that happens repeatedly,

1686
02:19:38,070 --> 02:19:39,430
that it will be,

1687
02:19:42,150 --> 02:19:44,351
it would be impossible for anyone to get it,

1688
02:19:44,351 --> 02:19:48,231
collect the blocks at a rate that is as fast

1689
02:19:48,231 --> 02:19:49,711
as they are being produced.

1690
02:19:49,751 --> 02:19:52,790
And then it will sort of not work out

1691
02:19:54,351 --> 02:19:55,830
for the people who are trying to do that.

1692
02:19:55,830 --> 02:19:58,550
But that you can see that,

1693
02:19:58,550 --> 02:20:00,310
you know, at the time they would propagate.

1694
02:20:00,310 --> 02:20:01,670
And of course, only a few.

1695
02:20:03,828 --> 02:20:07,108
A hundredths of a second at most back then.

1696
02:20:08,228 --> 02:20:11,788
So versus 600, 10 minutes to 600 seconds.

1697
02:20:11,788 --> 02:20:16,788
So that's, so again, it was off by orders of magnitude.

1698
02:20:18,268 --> 02:20:19,908
Anyway, I thought we had someone up here before.

1699
02:20:19,908 --> 02:20:21,148
Did we lose them?

1700
02:20:21,148 --> 02:20:22,828
I thought we had another person up.

1701
02:20:22,828 --> 02:20:23,988
Maybe they are down now.

1702
02:20:25,068 --> 02:20:26,547
Yeah, I think they dropped.

1703
02:20:26,547 --> 02:20:28,508
They dropped back down.

1704
02:20:28,508 --> 02:20:29,348
Okay.

1705
02:20:33,828 --> 02:20:35,427
I forgot what I was going to say.

1706
02:20:41,947 --> 02:20:42,787
Oh, they're back.

1707
02:20:42,787 --> 02:20:43,627
Hello.

1708
02:20:44,908 --> 02:20:45,747
Octavio.

1709
02:20:46,787 --> 02:20:47,947
Yeah.

1710
02:20:47,947 --> 02:20:51,308
So, yeah, I guess just going back a little bit

1711
02:20:51,308 --> 02:20:52,908
to your proposal.

1712
02:20:52,908 --> 02:20:56,988
So just one of the things that I get a little bit confused

1713
02:20:56,988 --> 02:20:58,107
is about the,

1714
02:20:58,107 --> 02:21:03,107
the main downsides of your proposal, I guess,

1715
02:21:05,587 --> 02:21:07,747
because everybody kind of gets, you know,

1716
02:21:08,908 --> 02:21:12,988
rejecting about this, this part specifically.

1717
02:21:12,988 --> 02:21:15,467
And I would like to know if there is any other kind

1718
02:21:15,467 --> 02:21:19,268
of a better way to do this peg out thing.

1719
02:21:20,148 --> 02:21:22,787
And if something like, for example,

1720
02:21:22,787 --> 02:21:27,747
like a meta op code, for example,

1721
02:21:28,387 --> 02:21:31,787
like the previous hash block or the previous transaction

1722
02:21:31,787 --> 02:21:34,268
would help in any way in that sense.

1723
02:21:35,467 --> 02:21:36,787
Yeah, that's my question.

1724
02:21:36,787 --> 02:21:39,107
For me, you cut out a little bit at the very beginning.

1725
02:21:39,107 --> 02:21:42,268
So, and you cut out right when you said something like,

1726
02:21:42,268 --> 02:21:45,667
and this is the part that people dislike, but you cut out.

1727
02:21:45,667 --> 02:21:47,988
So we're referring to the withdrawal, I assume,

1728
02:21:47,988 --> 02:21:50,467
or the peg out, I don't know.

1729
02:21:50,467 --> 02:21:52,747
Could you repeat some of what you said?

1730
02:21:52,747 --> 02:21:54,548
I mean, I didn't hear it, hopefully.

1731
02:21:55,548 --> 02:21:56,628
Maybe it was just me.

1732
02:21:58,387 --> 02:21:59,908
Is that what you're talking about?

1733
02:22:01,308 --> 02:22:02,508
Oh, can you hear me?

1734
02:22:03,548 --> 02:22:04,747
Is the app gonna crash?

1735
02:22:05,908 --> 02:22:06,988
The stupid app.

1736
02:22:09,188 --> 02:22:10,027
Elon.

1737
02:22:15,307 --> 02:22:16,507
I don't hear anyone now.

1738
02:22:18,828 --> 02:22:20,268
Oh no.

1739
02:22:20,268 --> 02:22:23,947
Well, now I dropped back down again,

1740
02:22:23,947 --> 02:22:26,188
but I will try to answer his question anyway.

1741
02:22:28,387 --> 02:22:31,788
I think the question is, can Drivechain be improved?

1742
02:22:31,788 --> 02:22:34,148
Personally, I really don't think it can.

1743
02:22:34,148 --> 02:22:39,148
And my position is that the people who don't like it

1744
02:22:40,227 --> 02:22:42,068
really just, there's something about it

1745
02:22:42,068 --> 02:22:43,268
that they just don't understand.

1746
02:22:43,268 --> 02:22:45,587
And I wish that they did understand it.

1747
02:22:45,587 --> 02:22:48,628
And I feel like if they put more time

1748
02:22:48,628 --> 02:22:52,667
into understanding how it worked, they would like it

1749
02:22:52,667 --> 02:22:56,428
because the withdrawal, people think that

1750
02:22:57,947 --> 02:23:01,587
they're trying to make it so that maybe miners

1751
02:23:01,587 --> 02:23:03,428
cannot steal from the withdrawal,

1752
02:23:03,428 --> 02:23:08,428
but self-interest and greed is a better ally

1753
02:23:09,788 --> 02:23:12,867
than most other things.

1754
02:23:12,867 --> 02:23:14,828
You know, if you're living in a situation

1755
02:23:14,828 --> 02:23:19,828
where the miners want the chain to be a success

1756
02:23:21,027 --> 02:23:24,348
because they want those juicy, juicy transaction fees,

1757
02:23:25,348 --> 02:23:27,227
that is actually much better

1758
02:23:27,227 --> 02:23:30,428
than even like a cryptographically secure algorithm.

1759
02:23:30,428 --> 02:23:32,227
Because what that points to is that

1760
02:23:32,227 --> 02:23:35,027
even if there's the event of some kind of bug

1761
02:23:35,027 --> 02:23:37,747
or some kind of unexpected thing,

1762
02:23:37,747 --> 02:23:40,268
that would point to the miners wanting to cooperate

1763
02:23:40,268 --> 02:23:42,268
to fix the issue.

1764
02:23:42,268 --> 02:23:45,667
Whereas if it's instead something like the Ethereum DAO hack

1765
02:23:45,667 --> 02:23:50,667
where everyone is nature red in tooth and claw,

1766
02:23:51,027 --> 02:23:54,027
and it's like, you just steal the money and then you escape,

1767
02:23:55,307 --> 02:23:56,788
that is actually scarier.

1768
02:23:56,788 --> 02:23:59,708
In that world, you have to have everything coded perfectly.

1769
02:23:59,708 --> 02:24:02,268
So what people don't like is I think

1770
02:24:02,268 --> 02:24:03,867
that there's some discretion.

1771
02:24:05,068 --> 02:24:09,148
The miners are your cooperative allies in mind,

1772
02:24:09,148 --> 02:24:11,068
and they want it to be a thing where

1773
02:24:12,387 --> 02:24:14,587
no one is allied with no one or something like that.

1774
02:24:14,587 --> 02:24:15,428
I don't know.

1775
02:24:16,348 --> 02:24:18,747
But I think all that's just a big mistake.

1776
02:24:18,868 --> 02:24:20,667
The people who try to improve it,

1777
02:24:21,548 --> 02:24:25,067
they want to make it so that maybe 51% hashrate

1778
02:24:25,067 --> 02:24:29,028
cannot steal from the escrow, the sidechain.

1779
02:24:30,627 --> 02:24:35,627
However, they are going to fail because 51%

1780
02:24:36,907 --> 02:24:40,548
can always censor messages from L1,

1781
02:24:40,548 --> 02:24:43,067
and it's just not worth it.

1782
02:24:43,067 --> 02:24:44,468
It's just really not worth it.

1783
02:24:44,468 --> 02:24:47,347
So for example, the Ethereum DAO,

1784
02:24:47,347 --> 02:24:48,187
it's not worth it.

1785
02:24:48,187 --> 02:24:53,187
So for example, the attack that Riyadh was explaining

1786
02:24:54,347 --> 02:24:58,028
earlier in this very space,

1787
02:24:58,028 --> 02:25:01,347
that is something that what makes the attack interesting

1788
02:25:01,347 --> 02:25:03,588
is that anyone can do it and make money.

1789
02:25:04,748 --> 02:25:08,227
But if the miners just decided to,

1790
02:25:08,227 --> 02:25:10,067
they could have already done that attack.

1791
02:25:10,067 --> 02:25:12,148
They could have just said, we won't let anything be spent,

1792
02:25:12,148 --> 02:25:16,227
and then we will spend the hash pathway for half of these

1793
02:25:16,227 --> 02:25:18,907
and the timelock pathway for half of these.

1794
02:25:18,907 --> 02:25:23,428
They can already do that attack and make money

1795
02:25:23,428 --> 02:25:26,748
just by poking their head in and paying some attention.

1796
02:25:26,748 --> 02:25:28,868
So the only interesting thing was that

1797
02:25:28,868 --> 02:25:31,028
the attacker can now bribe the miners

1798
02:25:31,028 --> 02:25:33,227
and cut them in on it, and now the whole thing.

1799
02:25:33,227 --> 02:25:36,067
So everyone is relying on the miners

1800
02:25:36,067 --> 02:25:38,627
to a very significant degree,

1801
02:25:38,627 --> 02:25:41,507
and it's just better to get the miners on your side.

1802
02:25:41,507 --> 02:25:43,907
And so I really don't think that it can be improved.

1803
02:25:43,947 --> 02:25:47,187
I mean, the other thing is the withdrawal is very slow,

1804
02:25:47,187 --> 02:25:50,468
but it would be nice if it were faster,

1805
02:25:50,468 --> 02:25:53,548
but it's also not that important

1806
02:25:53,548 --> 02:25:56,588
because regular people will just swap out.

1807
02:25:56,588 --> 02:25:59,907
They will have, it's kind of like how,

1808
02:26:02,468 --> 02:26:04,868
you know, it's like if you play chess

1809
02:26:04,868 --> 02:26:07,627
and you very rarely play to the checkmate,

1810
02:26:07,627 --> 02:26:11,548
someone will resign, you know, because they can't win.

1811
02:26:11,548 --> 02:26:13,107
So if you have the L2 coins,

1812
02:26:13,387 --> 02:26:16,227
it's only a matter of time before you get them on L1.

1813
02:26:16,227 --> 02:26:20,627
The miners are indifferent between F300 L2 coins

1814
02:26:20,627 --> 02:26:22,468
and L1 coins.

1815
02:26:22,468 --> 02:26:24,187
So the miners are

1816
02:26:27,468 --> 02:26:31,028
going to buy them at 99 cents on the dollar always.

1817
02:26:32,468 --> 02:26:36,428
It's exactly as I wrote in the original November 2015 post.

1818
02:26:36,428 --> 02:26:38,828
So everyone, I think it's very interesting.

1819
02:26:38,828 --> 02:26:40,107
People should go back and read,

1820
02:26:40,107 --> 02:26:42,828
read the original November 2015 post.

1821
02:26:43,548 --> 02:26:46,428
It honestly thought of everything already.

1822
02:26:46,428 --> 02:26:48,428
And it's just,

1823
02:26:49,387 --> 02:26:52,428
people are just struggling to comprehend it

1824
02:26:52,428 --> 02:26:55,387
for some reason that I don't fully understand.

1825
02:26:55,387 --> 02:26:56,507
But I don't think there's anything

1826
02:26:56,507 --> 02:26:58,428
that would actually improve it a lot.

1827
02:26:58,428 --> 02:27:00,347
CTV would make it much easier

1828
02:27:00,347 --> 02:27:02,387
so that instead of being able to withdraw

1829
02:27:02,387 --> 02:27:07,347
to 15,000 people or something like that,

1830
02:27:07,347 --> 02:27:09,828
you could withdraw to like whatever, tens of millions,

1831
02:27:09,828 --> 02:27:11,387
but that already isn't an issue

1832
02:27:11,387 --> 02:27:14,107
because you can already aggregate on L2.

1833
02:27:14,107 --> 02:27:19,107
But that is one small improvement that would happen.

1834
02:27:26,387 --> 02:27:28,268
I think I had to, yeah,

1835
02:27:28,268 --> 02:27:31,667
I actually had to drop off and join again the call

1836
02:27:31,667 --> 02:27:33,548
because I couldn't listen to you.

1837
02:27:33,548 --> 02:27:35,828
And I think I have missed some part

1838
02:27:35,828 --> 02:27:38,148
of what I was saying as well.

1839
02:27:38,148 --> 02:27:41,107
But part of my question was also like,

1840
02:27:41,787 --> 02:27:43,667
if some kind of meta op code

1841
02:27:43,667 --> 02:27:48,268
would improve the bag out process.

1842
02:27:48,268 --> 02:27:49,828
So for example,

1843
02:27:49,828 --> 02:27:53,148
just bagging out with a transaction

1844
02:27:53,148 --> 02:27:57,067
that has been seen in a specific block

1845
02:27:57,067 --> 02:28:00,308
or even like from a previous transaction,

1846
02:28:00,308 --> 02:28:02,187
hash or something like that, you know?

1847
02:28:04,227 --> 02:28:05,988
Yeah, that would not really improve it

1848
02:28:05,988 --> 02:28:08,187
because already BIP300 requires people

1849
02:28:08,187 --> 02:28:12,347
to put the TXID into the Coinbase months in advance.

1850
02:28:12,347 --> 02:28:13,748
So you put it out already,

1851
02:28:13,748 --> 02:28:15,787
and then that is the only one.

1852
02:28:15,787 --> 02:28:17,308
It's only after it's in the Coinbase

1853
02:28:17,308 --> 02:28:18,588
and then it gets votes.

1854
02:28:19,468 --> 02:28:22,627
That is the only one that can be withdrawn later

1855
02:28:22,627 --> 02:28:24,387
and included in a block.

1856
02:28:24,387 --> 02:28:25,868
And so it kind of already does that.

1857
02:28:25,868 --> 02:28:27,868
I really don't think there is a way

1858
02:28:27,868 --> 02:28:32,868
to improve upon the drivechain design.

1859
02:28:32,868 --> 02:28:35,708
You know, maybe there is, but I just don't.

1860
02:28:35,708 --> 02:28:39,828
A lot of people just don't understand it.

1861
02:28:39,828 --> 02:28:44,828
And what they think an improvement might be

1862
02:28:45,947 --> 02:28:48,468
is something that's either pointless

1863
02:28:48,468 --> 02:28:53,468
or would actually break it maybe.

1864
02:28:54,468 --> 02:28:58,187
So I think that that's a very weird situation to be in,

1865
02:28:58,307 --> 02:29:01,307
but I mean, you have to look at it from my point of view.

1866
02:29:01,307 --> 02:29:05,747
You know, people should read the original November, 2015 post

1867
02:29:05,747 --> 02:29:10,747
and they also should look at what Peter Todd came up with

1868
02:29:12,148 --> 02:29:14,108
like in October of this year

1869
02:29:15,387 --> 02:29:17,547
and really just how kind of terrible it is.

1870
02:29:18,708 --> 02:29:22,507
And it's, so I don't know.

1871
02:29:22,507 --> 02:29:24,427
But yeah, everyone's got an opinion about it.

1872
02:29:25,148 --> 02:29:26,867
So I don't know.

1873
02:29:26,867 --> 02:29:29,908
But yeah, everyone's got an opinion about drivechain.

1874
02:29:32,427 --> 02:29:34,987
Yeah, plenty of people think it's about bringing

1875
02:29:34,987 --> 02:29:38,788
shit coins to Bitcoin, even though it doesn't do that at all.

1876
02:29:40,668 --> 02:29:44,908
Was that your motivation to bring Bitcoin to everyone?

1877
02:29:46,947 --> 02:29:51,947
Well, yeah, I think that we're faced with the reality

1878
02:29:52,947 --> 02:29:55,187
that people disagree enormously.

1879
02:29:55,187 --> 02:29:58,507
So how do we handle that?

1880
02:29:58,507 --> 02:30:03,507
Do we just say, oh, the winning team will always be right.

1881
02:30:04,228 --> 02:30:08,067
Like what we have Greg Maxwell and he's never wrong.

1882
02:30:09,187 --> 02:30:11,148
Well, to me, that seems like a bad idea.

1883
02:30:12,627 --> 02:30:15,547
I think being wrong is a part of life.

1884
02:30:15,547 --> 02:30:16,708
It's a good part of life.

1885
02:30:16,708 --> 02:30:19,307
And it means that you are sprinting ahead

1886
02:30:19,307 --> 02:30:20,947
to tackle the tough questions.

1887
02:30:22,867 --> 02:30:24,987
And it's very easy to never be wrong.

1888
02:30:24,987 --> 02:30:26,828
You just never say anything.

1889
02:30:26,828 --> 02:30:28,307
And that's worse.

1890
02:30:28,307 --> 02:30:33,307
And so I think betting on infallibility is a dead end to me.

1891
02:30:34,507 --> 02:30:38,947
And I think also just trying to stick your head in the sand

1892
02:30:38,947 --> 02:30:41,307
and just say, oh, it doesn't matter that people disagree

1893
02:30:41,307 --> 02:30:44,067
because plenty of people say this type of thing

1894
02:30:44,067 --> 02:30:46,708
where they say the status quo is the best.

1895
02:30:46,708 --> 02:30:50,668
So they say anyone proposing a change is bad.

1896
02:30:50,668 --> 02:30:53,268
Even if that change is a fully opt-in,

1897
02:30:53,268 --> 02:30:56,867
ignorable soft fork that's can barely be regarded

1898
02:30:56,867 --> 02:30:57,708
as a change.

1899
02:30:58,747 --> 02:31:02,828
But if people will say something like the old is the best

1900
02:31:02,828 --> 02:31:07,828
and that argument is sometimes called positivism

1901
02:31:07,828 --> 02:31:12,828
and it's been used time and again and it's always wrong.

1902
02:31:14,187 --> 02:31:16,908
And it says that we should be using outhouses

1903
02:31:16,908 --> 02:31:20,108
instead of plumbing and that we should just,

1904
02:31:20,108 --> 02:31:22,108
we should die, our teeth should kill us

1905
02:31:22,108 --> 02:31:26,547
when we're 25, 26 years old, painfully.

1906
02:31:26,547 --> 02:31:31,547
And people try to make an analogy to like TCPIP

1907
02:31:34,228 --> 02:31:35,908
but the analogy doesn't work

1908
02:31:35,908 --> 02:31:38,747
because TCPIP already worked for,

1909
02:31:38,747 --> 02:31:41,668
it already solved the problem that it needed to solve

1910
02:31:41,668 --> 02:31:45,387
which was connect every device in the world,

1911
02:31:45,747 --> 02:31:50,747
8 billion devices and this does not yet so.

1912
02:31:54,348 --> 02:31:59,348
So yeah, that's my thought, Abadi is back, hello.

1913
02:32:01,028 --> 02:32:05,067
Hey, you were talking a little bit earlier about SegWit

1914
02:32:05,067 --> 02:32:06,828
and I'm a little bit behind, I guess,

1915
02:32:06,828 --> 02:32:10,208
but you were talking about how it's weird

1916
02:32:10,208 --> 02:32:11,047
that they were like,

1917
02:32:11,047 --> 02:32:13,047
no, you can't raise the box size, impossible,

1918
02:32:13,047 --> 02:32:14,947
but let's raise it three megabytes.

1919
02:32:16,387 --> 02:32:18,387
And they never really acknowledged that.

1920
02:32:19,307 --> 02:32:21,987
I find it very interesting that what seems to be happening

1921
02:32:21,987 --> 02:32:24,387
right here with the Ordinal situation

1922
02:32:24,387 --> 02:32:26,828
is a complete misincentive and mispricing

1923
02:32:26,828 --> 02:32:29,067
of arbitrary blockchain storage.

1924
02:32:29,067 --> 02:32:32,148
And obviously storage is one of the most precious resources

1925
02:32:32,148 --> 02:32:33,987
and for example, like Ethereum,

1926
02:32:33,987 --> 02:32:36,588
not promoting Ethereum at the moment right now,

1927
02:32:36,588 --> 02:32:40,108
but Ethereum prices arbitrary storage

1928
02:32:40,108 --> 02:32:41,708
or they price storage as one of like

1929
02:32:41,708 --> 02:32:43,148
the highest compute resources.

1930
02:32:43,148 --> 02:32:45,187
It's one of the most expensive compute resources

1931
02:32:45,947 --> 02:32:47,028
you can access on their network.

1932
02:32:47,028 --> 02:32:50,627
And so when they released SegWit and Taproot,

1933
02:32:50,627 --> 02:32:53,987
they gave three times more space for arbitrary storage

1934
02:32:53,987 --> 02:32:55,747
at like one quarter of the price

1935
02:32:55,747 --> 02:32:57,788
of the base transaction data.

1936
02:32:57,788 --> 02:32:59,908
And it seems to me like a lot of the problems

1937
02:32:59,908 --> 02:33:01,468
could be alleviated, they can't be solved,

1938
02:33:01,468 --> 02:33:02,908
you can always put arbitrary data

1939
02:33:02,908 --> 02:33:04,627
into really any blockchain,

1940
02:33:04,627 --> 02:33:07,547
but it's a question of incentives and how easy can you do it?

1941
02:33:07,547 --> 02:33:10,148
How, what's the cost of doing that?

1942
02:33:10,148 --> 02:33:12,627
It seems like it's maybe a foregone conclusion

1943
02:33:12,627 --> 02:33:14,668
that they just won't be able to make any movement here

1944
02:33:14,668 --> 02:33:18,187
because there's too many inscriptors at this moment,

1945
02:33:18,187 --> 02:33:21,228
but I don't know, what do you think about just in general

1946
02:33:21,228 --> 02:33:22,987
about the pricing of arbitrary storage

1947
02:33:22,987 --> 02:33:27,028
and in a technical sense, the ability to reduce that problem

1948
02:33:27,028 --> 02:33:28,828
or maybe it's not really a problem,

1949
02:33:28,828 --> 02:33:30,307
maybe you don't see it as being a problem.

1950
02:33:30,307 --> 02:33:32,348
I don't know, I was just wondering if you could comment

1951
02:33:32,348 --> 02:33:34,668
on those, on that kind of line of thinking.

1952
02:33:37,028 --> 02:33:38,668
Sure, I'd be happy to.

1953
02:33:38,668 --> 02:33:42,547
The distorted pricing was introduced.

1954
02:33:43,547 --> 02:33:48,547
People thought, back in 2015,

1955
02:33:48,947 --> 02:33:53,427
it was observed that you could do a,

1956
02:33:53,427 --> 02:33:55,987
you could do SegWit by putting the signatures

1957
02:33:55,987 --> 02:33:58,908
into an extension, a mandatory extension block.

1958
02:33:59,788 --> 02:34:04,427
And you could have this extension block be 100 gigabytes,

1959
02:34:04,427 --> 02:34:06,588
and that would be pricing it at like one,

1960
02:34:06,588 --> 02:34:08,588
100 billionth or something.

1961
02:34:08,588 --> 02:34:11,668
And they set this constant, as far as I'm aware,

1962
02:34:13,468 --> 02:34:15,507
you know, I was participating in technical discussion

1963
02:34:15,507 --> 02:34:17,307
at the time, but who really even knows.

1964
02:34:17,307 --> 02:34:19,268
But I think it was something like this.

1965
02:34:19,268 --> 02:34:23,108
The input is usually like 100 bytes

1966
02:34:23,108 --> 02:34:26,108
because there's a 71 byte signature plus more stuff.

1967
02:34:26,108 --> 02:34:28,547
The input, selecting the input is 32 bytes.

1968
02:34:28,547 --> 02:34:32,427
So it's like 115 something bytes is the each input.

1969
02:34:33,987 --> 02:34:36,148
And each output is only like whatever,

1970
02:34:36,148 --> 02:34:39,547
like 30, whatever, 40 bytes.

1971
02:34:40,507 --> 02:34:42,588
So it's roughly a four to one ratio.

1972
02:34:42,588 --> 02:34:43,867
And when people make outputs,

1973
02:34:43,867 --> 02:34:46,708
they were trying to deter output spam.

1974
02:34:46,708 --> 02:34:48,507
Because it's like, you make a bunch of outputs.

1975
02:34:48,507 --> 02:34:49,788
So it was like, they were probably thinking

1976
02:34:49,788 --> 02:34:52,708
of Satoshi Dice, which produced all these outputs

1977
02:34:52,708 --> 02:34:57,228
that were dust or that were not used for,

1978
02:34:57,228 --> 02:34:58,547
they were used for notification.

1979
02:34:58,547 --> 02:35:00,708
They were probably thinking of BIP-47.

1980
02:35:00,708 --> 02:35:03,908
So they're thinking, we don't want to store these UTXOs

1981
02:35:03,908 --> 02:35:05,708
because we have to store them in memory.

1982
02:35:05,708 --> 02:35:09,788
So it is a great irony that they wanted to discourage,

1983
02:35:09,788 --> 02:35:11,067
they wanted to encourage people

1984
02:35:11,067 --> 02:35:14,028
cleaning up the dust outputs

1985
02:35:17,268 --> 02:35:21,507
by making it so that creating an output

1986
02:35:21,507 --> 02:35:23,668
hit for the full amount,

1987
02:35:23,668 --> 02:35:26,468
but an input was only cost one quarter.

1988
02:35:27,708 --> 02:35:30,588
So perhaps that makes, hope that makes some sense,

1989
02:35:30,588 --> 02:35:32,067
which is that was the intent.

1990
02:35:32,067 --> 02:35:33,708
And it was, I think it was the ratio

1991
02:35:33,708 --> 02:35:36,908
of the size of an input to an output was around four.

1992
02:35:36,908 --> 02:35:39,387
But it was also the case that they had looked

1993
02:35:39,387 --> 02:35:42,627
into the historical data and calculated

1994
02:35:42,627 --> 02:35:45,547
that if they picked this factor of four,

1995
02:35:45,547 --> 02:35:48,908
it would, if the past patterns continued,

1996
02:35:48,908 --> 02:35:51,627
it would be effectively a block size increase

1997
02:35:51,627 --> 02:35:54,228
from one megabyte to about 2.3.

1998
02:35:54,228 --> 02:35:57,828
And this was, you know, buying people some time,

1999
02:35:58,828 --> 02:36:03,828
basically buying some time of getting the block size.

2000
02:36:04,307 --> 02:36:06,867
You know, it was like, if you could plot

2001
02:36:06,867 --> 02:36:09,228
like the size of the blocks

2002
02:36:09,228 --> 02:36:10,828
and then you could plot the block size limit

2003
02:36:10,828 --> 02:36:14,348
as a horizontal line at one megabyte.

2004
02:36:14,348 --> 02:36:15,187
And you could see we're gonna like,

2005
02:36:15,187 --> 02:36:17,148
so we're sort of like hitting the limit.

2006
02:36:17,148 --> 02:36:18,668
And they thought, okay, we can,

2007
02:36:18,668 --> 02:36:20,588
this would be a good compromise.

2008
02:36:20,588 --> 02:36:23,507
So that was how it originated.

2009
02:36:23,507 --> 02:36:26,307
And now you see that it has flipped around,

2010
02:36:26,387 --> 02:36:27,788
as you rightly say.

2011
02:36:29,228 --> 02:36:32,067
It is used in a different way than it was intended.

2012
02:36:32,067 --> 02:36:36,547
And now it is storing data that must,

2013
02:36:36,547 --> 02:36:40,867
storing blocks, the blocks must be served on demand.

2014
02:36:40,867 --> 02:36:45,668
So it's not, it's not looked up in RAM per se,

2015
02:36:45,668 --> 02:36:49,468
but it's still something that whenever anyone,

2016
02:36:49,468 --> 02:36:54,468
if someone asks Luke Dashjr's node for a certain block,

2017
02:36:54,668 --> 02:36:57,507
it either has to say that it doesn't have the block

2018
02:36:57,507 --> 02:37:00,427
and then it will get disconnected from,

2019
02:37:01,708 --> 02:37:04,908
or it has to serve the whole block,

2020
02:37:04,908 --> 02:37:07,508
including the, you know, JPEGs.

2021
02:37:09,027 --> 02:37:12,748
So I think that they, this is a little tiny experiment

2022
02:37:12,748 --> 02:37:15,187
that was run in central planning

2023
02:37:15,187 --> 02:37:16,828
that should just be unwound.

2024
02:37:16,828 --> 02:37:19,108
And we should just delete the,

2025
02:37:19,108 --> 02:37:21,508
we can go back and delete the discount

2026
02:37:21,508 --> 02:37:25,828
and restore the original unadulterated one megabyte

2027
02:37:25,828 --> 02:37:27,787
block size in all its sincerity.

2028
02:37:28,787 --> 02:37:30,748
It's kind of what I would prefer at this point,

2029
02:37:30,748 --> 02:37:32,427
because I think that it,

2030
02:37:34,067 --> 02:37:36,787
this idea that it will,

2031
02:37:36,787 --> 02:37:39,427
I mean, who out there is like being,

2032
02:37:40,748 --> 02:37:42,307
like when people make a transaction,

2033
02:37:42,307 --> 02:37:43,468
are they really thinking about,

2034
02:37:43,468 --> 02:37:45,067
oh, I should clean up these?

2035
02:37:46,748 --> 02:37:47,588
I don't know.

2036
02:37:47,588 --> 02:37:50,067
I don't think people really are responding to the incentive

2037
02:37:50,388 --> 02:37:52,147
in that particular way.

2038
02:37:52,147 --> 02:37:54,868
And I kind of just think a byte is a byte.

2039
02:37:56,667 --> 02:37:59,868
The RAM, I think the RAM thing will fix itself also

2040
02:37:59,868 --> 02:38:01,228
because, you know, back in the day,

2041
02:38:01,228 --> 02:38:04,108
I mean, there used to be a huge difference between RAM.

2042
02:38:04,108 --> 02:38:06,828
I mean, I remember when you had like a one megabyte RAM

2043
02:38:08,187 --> 02:38:11,267
and then you could have like the ratio.

2044
02:38:11,267 --> 02:38:12,547
I mean, someone should plot that.

2045
02:38:12,547 --> 02:38:13,868
I wonder about this.

2046
02:38:15,468 --> 02:38:17,388
Maybe I'm totally mistaken here,

2047
02:38:17,388 --> 02:38:18,907
but the,

2048
02:38:20,588 --> 02:38:22,307
it used to be that you'd have like,

2049
02:38:22,307 --> 02:38:27,307
you could have like a one gigabyte

2050
02:38:27,307 --> 02:38:29,388
or like a 100 gigabyte hard drive.

2051
02:38:29,388 --> 02:38:30,348
Like in the 2000s,

2052
02:38:30,348 --> 02:38:32,708
you could have like a 100 gigabyte hard drive

2053
02:38:32,708 --> 02:38:37,708
and you would have like a very small amount of RAM.

2054
02:38:39,267 --> 02:38:41,307
And I want to like say I completely am wrong,

2055
02:38:41,307 --> 02:38:43,427
but I'm saying the ratio has changed, I think.

2056
02:38:43,427 --> 02:38:46,468
Now you can get a super, super high performance computer.

2057
02:38:46,468 --> 02:38:47,907
It still only has like, what,

2058
02:38:47,907 --> 02:38:50,348
three terabytes in like the highest performance,

2059
02:38:50,348 --> 02:38:52,988
but they can have like 64 gigabytes of RAM.

2060
02:38:52,988 --> 02:38:55,427
They can have like a huge amount.

2061
02:38:55,427 --> 02:38:59,027
So I kind of think the ratio has caught up on the one side

2062
02:38:59,027 --> 02:39:01,547
and it doesn't, who cares about it?

2063
02:39:01,547 --> 02:39:03,547
You know, and anything you store in RAM,

2064
02:39:04,708 --> 02:39:08,147
you can all store on, you could flip them around.

2065
02:39:08,147 --> 02:39:10,267
You know, you could, you know, you could,

2066
02:39:10,267 --> 02:39:11,468
you could hack the software

2067
02:39:11,468 --> 02:39:15,628
and you could write caches and things to convert them all.

2068
02:39:15,628 --> 02:39:18,187
So it's like, I don't know, who cares?

2069
02:39:18,187 --> 02:39:21,907
Now everyone has a three terabyte solid state drive.

2070
02:39:21,907 --> 02:39:25,348
It's like, maybe not everyone, but some people.

2071
02:39:25,348 --> 02:39:28,868
So that's my, does that give you any kind of...

2072
02:39:29,538 --> 02:39:31,378
Does that help answer your question at all?

2073
02:39:32,178 --> 02:39:36,658
Yeah, definitely. I really just wanted to hear your thoughts on that. And that's good.

2074
02:39:36,658 --> 02:39:39,458
That's good information on the background about like how they arrived at

2075
02:39:41,138 --> 02:39:44,018
the numbers that they arrived at and what the problem they were trying to solve.

2076
02:39:44,578 --> 02:39:49,138
It's interesting to me that through this entire conversation, I just, I never,

2077
02:39:49,138 --> 02:39:53,778
I hardly hear anybody discussing like the fundamental issue at the protocol level that

2078
02:39:53,778 --> 02:39:57,538
was changed. It's always like, well, we need to censor or we shouldn't censor. We need to

2079
02:39:57,538 --> 02:40:04,018
implement pools or, you know, Bitcoin, like this assumption that Bitcoin is not a designed network

2080
02:40:04,018 --> 02:40:08,978
and that it's like economics, it's pure economics itself. You say, well, people can just pay for

2081
02:40:08,978 --> 02:40:12,658
whatever they want and, you know, Bitcoin does what it wants. It's like, it's not this separate

2082
02:40:12,658 --> 02:40:18,577
entity. It's not a separate thing that like, that has its own mind. Like people set parameters into

2083
02:40:18,577 --> 02:40:23,458
the network for specific purposes. And if those aren't working as intended after the fact, then

2084
02:40:23,458 --> 02:40:27,778
we need to go and change the network. If you can't do that, like it's impossible to release

2085
02:40:27,778 --> 02:40:32,417
any software, any protocol, any code that's going to get it right the first time, every time,

2086
02:40:33,057 --> 02:40:36,817
like no matter how much modeling you want to put into it, the real world shows you things that you

2087
02:40:36,817 --> 02:40:41,698
just didn't expect. So to me, it's like Bitcoin needs the ability, if it's ever going to upgrade,

2088
02:40:41,698 --> 02:40:46,577
it needs the ability to revisit the situation after the fact and say, okay, we kind of messed

2089
02:40:46,577 --> 02:40:51,058
up some of these parameters. We didn't, we didn't foresee this. Let's change the dynamics and the

2090
02:40:51,058 --> 02:40:55,458
incentives. And right now I just see very little of that happening as a conversation.

2091
02:40:55,458 --> 02:41:00,098
But yeah, that's really all I wanted to say about that. I appreciate your ideas there.

2092
02:41:02,897 --> 02:41:09,698
Yeah. And I mean, as you almost certainly can guess, people, this is another thing where it was

2093
02:41:09,698 --> 02:41:17,537
like, in the SegWit era and previously, everyone would talk about like how this is a big experiment.

2094
02:41:18,497 --> 02:41:23,298
Don't put any more money in than you can afford to lose. And then it kind of, it is the block size

2095
02:41:23,298 --> 02:41:29,618
war. I mean, I repeat this so much, but I just really believe that it's the case. I beseech

2096
02:41:29,618 --> 02:41:36,257
everyone, please, you know, hear my plea or whatever. But it's like, if the community split

2097
02:41:36,257 --> 02:41:42,018
into the two camps, and then the, you know, and the camps got further and further apart,

2098
02:41:42,018 --> 02:41:45,217
and they started hating each other. By scaling three, they had already started to hate each

2099
02:41:45,217 --> 02:41:51,298
other a lot. And then SegWit2x further drove this wedge, and then Bitcoin Cash, they split

2100
02:41:51,298 --> 02:41:57,217
off completely. And it's because the community split that both of them decided to try to claim

2101
02:41:57,217 --> 02:42:05,458
that they had all the answers. So no one wanted to say, oh, we're still figuring it out. This is an

2102
02:42:05,458 --> 02:42:14,898
experiment. Instead, they said, this is the total final solution. This is perfection. The Bitcoin

2103
02:42:14,898 --> 02:42:23,378
Core, latest version is perfect, and can never be improved. And anyone who talks about improving

2104
02:42:23,378 --> 02:42:28,977
it is a troublemaker. And all of this started, this was not the case before the block size

2105
02:42:28,977 --> 02:42:35,857
war, the tox, this is the toxicity, you know, there was no, there was some, but the toxicity

2106
02:42:35,857 --> 02:42:39,137
was very different back then, because it was completely different thing when you compare

2107
02:42:39,137 --> 02:42:43,857
something like Bitcoin to like Litecoin, which is like a copy paste that has like no, at the time,

2108
02:42:43,857 --> 02:42:49,618
had really no purpose. The great irony is that now Litecoin, you know, actually kind of looks like,

2109
02:42:51,217 --> 02:42:57,937
it is, it's nice because Lightning is the extension block of Bitcoin. It's the low fee

2110
02:42:58,738 --> 02:43:04,577
version of Bitcoin. This is ironic, it's the horizontal scaling, as they say.

2111
02:43:04,577 --> 02:43:09,618
But in the early days of Bitcoin, it was like Bitcoin 99%

2112
02:43:09,857 --> 02:43:17,137
dominance index, everything else was a distraction. Everything else was get rich quick scheme.

2113
02:43:18,417 --> 02:43:28,898
And so, but it's only after the split that people tried to say like Bitcoin is finished.

2114
02:43:32,098 --> 02:43:34,178
I don't know. It's, it's rough.

2115
02:43:34,898 --> 02:43:40,658
It's too bad that an enormous amount of damage was caused, I think, by the way, that event was

2116
02:43:40,658 --> 02:43:47,778
handled, as I said before, it, it broke the BIP process, because you can see why, because now if

2117
02:43:47,778 --> 02:43:53,857
you have, if there is a BIP on the before when it's, previously, the BIPs were like, we'll add a

2118
02:43:53,857 --> 02:44:01,857
BIP, so that when the unused OPNOP2, which puts the current block time, like on the stack and

2119
02:44:02,738 --> 02:44:07,938
like fails, if it doesn't equal something. So that was like check lock time verify is like,

2120
02:44:07,938 --> 02:44:15,058
you know, that was a oversimplification, but it's like, a BIP would be like, we will put

2121
02:44:16,498 --> 02:44:22,257
the Coinbase must, the Coinbase transaction must include the current block height.

2122
02:44:22,257 --> 02:44:26,498
And that was because if you didn't do that, and the miner reuse the address,

2123
02:44:27,377 --> 02:44:30,178
you had two UTXOs that would have the exact same

2124
02:44:31,537 --> 02:44:37,618
hash. And people just thought, well, that's kind of annoying. So when the BIPs, and then you had

2125
02:44:37,618 --> 02:44:42,817
a BIP to add pay the script hash, add multi-sig, that's kind of a big change, if you really think

2126
02:44:42,817 --> 02:44:50,018
about it. But, but back then, no one cared. But then as soon as you have this block size dispute,

2127
02:44:50,577 --> 02:44:57,458
that makes everyone very, very angry. Now, when someone puts a SegWit BIP on the table,

2128
02:44:57,458 --> 02:45:01,618
SegWit is now it's a political football because it has a block size. Well, why four megabytes and

2129
02:45:01,618 --> 02:45:10,577
not something else? Why can Peter Weil increase the block size, but whatever, you know, Roger

2130
02:45:10,577 --> 02:45:18,657
Veer can't. I think Roger, Roger is a very nice guy, very polite, and he really cared about Bitcoin.

2131
02:45:19,377 --> 02:45:31,058
I think he, he really overestimated. Well, as you say, there became a time when it was very hard to

2132
02:45:31,058 --> 02:45:34,577
get the impression that people are really listening to each other. The listening is the key.

2133
02:45:36,657 --> 02:45:44,898
And the empathy, which was, unfortunately, it was, I remember it as being a very full tank

2134
02:45:45,857 --> 02:45:51,377
in, in 2015, but that tank ran out. And I think you alluded to this in the book,

2135
02:45:51,377 --> 02:45:59,058
points this out that it just, people's had a tank of gasoline that eventually just ran out and

2136
02:46:00,257 --> 02:46:03,458
for some people faster than others. And then they just thought, well,

2137
02:46:03,458 --> 02:46:07,218
these people aren't listening to me. So why say anything?

2138
02:46:08,577 --> 02:46:14,257
But also they had like agreements that were behind closed doors with very few people too.

2139
02:46:15,778 --> 02:46:24,898
Like in Hong Kong, but the Hong Kong one was, that one was supposed to be like a compromise.

2140
02:46:24,898 --> 02:46:29,697
That one was a very intriguing case. I don't know what the, what the book, I assume you're referring

2141
02:46:29,697 --> 02:46:36,577
to Jonathan's book. I don't know. I'm not sure what exactly what he says in there. I think he's

2142
02:46:36,577 --> 02:46:44,178
mostly great, but, but that one, the Hong Kong one was like, you had a bunch of small blockers and

2143
02:46:44,178 --> 02:46:49,778
large blockers meet and try to continue to talk to each other. And it sort of backfired because it

2144
02:46:49,778 --> 02:46:55,058
ended up being like, why are these people the anointed ones who can talk? And then there was

2145
02:46:55,058 --> 02:47:01,778
that silly little kerfuffle. Is this in the book about, is Adam Beck signing on behalf of Blockstream

2146
02:47:01,778 --> 02:47:08,817
or just as an individual, this became like a huge issue that went for like at least a week, two

2147
02:47:08,817 --> 02:47:12,977
weeks maybe. And then it was like, does this represent Blockstream's opinion? People really

2148
02:47:12,977 --> 02:47:17,537
cared about Blockstream's opinion for some reason, which I always, I always defended Blockstream and

2149
02:47:17,537 --> 02:47:23,537
said, who cares? Like, this is such a stupid thing to care about. Can we just talk about if the idea

2150
02:47:23,537 --> 02:47:28,178
is right or not? But yeah, people were convinced that yeah, Blockstream was like funded by like

2151
02:47:28,178 --> 02:47:35,618
the devil or whatever. And, and then people were obsessed. There was, you know, I don't want to say

2152
02:47:35,618 --> 02:47:40,498
racist per se, but people were, you know, they were really annoyed that so much mining was in China.

2153
02:47:41,377 --> 02:47:47,058
And this is a big issue for people, which I also said, this is so dumb. Why do we care? Why are

2154
02:47:47,058 --> 02:47:54,898
people talking about this? Yeah, it wasn't racist. In my view, it was, yeah, it was like a CCP will

2155
02:47:54,898 --> 02:48:01,058
destroy us. It was like people were saying, oh, you're, you're not listening to us because you

2156
02:48:01,058 --> 02:48:07,298
are racist. It wasn't like they were being racist and to the, the language also they had to go

2157
02:48:07,298 --> 02:48:15,938
through an interpreter. Right. And you know how well that goes. I recommend this very often,

2158
02:48:15,938 --> 02:48:21,217
but I'm going to recommend it again. I'm pretty sure you can easily find scaling Bitcoin too,

2159
02:48:21,217 --> 02:48:25,698
which was in Hong Kong, unrelated to the Hong Kong agreement, which was like, what was it like

2160
02:48:25,698 --> 02:48:32,897
two months later or something? But maybe it was April even, but whatever it was, that was December.

2161
02:48:33,857 --> 02:48:39,457
You can get the miner panel and just watch, just click play and just watch. And you'll,

2162
02:48:39,457 --> 02:48:45,378
you'll get a sense of how the miners were not like, in my view, they were not like these

2163
02:48:45,378 --> 02:48:50,498
Machiavellian schemers. They were just like very confused, very annoyed, very frustrated.

2164
02:48:51,938 --> 02:48:55,537
And they were just trying to figure out what to do. And they were very annoyed and they just

2165
02:48:55,618 --> 02:49:03,777
wanted to go back to making money, which is, but the, the miners, if I miners cannot

2166
02:49:05,938 --> 02:49:12,578
outsource responsibility for their thoughts, it would be nice if you could do that. But

2167
02:49:12,578 --> 02:49:18,417
responsibility is the one thing that you just cannot outsource. And they have to take responsibility

2168
02:49:18,417 --> 02:49:25,298
for the soft forks, because if they upgrade the soft fork happens, and if they don't, then it,

2169
02:49:25,618 --> 02:49:30,258
it really doesn't. You can have the UASF, like force them to upgrade, but they still have to

2170
02:49:30,258 --> 02:49:34,897
actually do it at the end of the day. And it is in fact possible for every, almost, just almost

2171
02:49:34,897 --> 02:49:40,818
every soft fork, every soft fork that is message based, like transaction based, and a whole lot

2172
02:49:40,818 --> 02:49:46,097
more besides. Miners can always upgrade to a version that filters the soft fork out and then

2173
02:49:46,097 --> 02:49:53,298
stops it from activating. So, so they just tried to, but yeah, we're all still learning here. I'm

2174
02:49:53,298 --> 02:50:00,017
sure historians of the future will have a field day picking all this apart and listening to this

2175
02:50:00,017 --> 02:50:06,017
space, who knows, maybe hello, greetings from the past, if you are listening from a hundred years

2176
02:50:06,017 --> 02:50:11,298
from now. And I think perhaps what do you think about the potential? So, you know, going into

2177
02:50:11,298 --> 02:50:15,857
the future here, it seems like in the present moment, we've seen a little bit of softening

2178
02:50:16,818 --> 02:50:21,457
from some of the hardcore Bitcoin or maximalist types, where they're a little bit more willing

2179
02:50:21,457 --> 02:50:25,698
to admit some of the shortcomings of lightning network. They're a little bit more open to the

2180
02:50:25,698 --> 02:50:31,618
possibilities. Do you foresee potentially, or like, how do you think the social landscape looks

2181
02:50:31,618 --> 02:50:36,818
for Bitcoin going into the next couple of years? Assume we have another bull market and fees are,

2182
02:50:36,818 --> 02:50:40,738
I mean, I can't see any way that in the present state of things, fees don't hit a hundred,

2183
02:50:40,738 --> 02:50:47,378
$200 consistently for months on end. Do you think that that will soften up, like the ability of the

2184
02:50:47,378 --> 02:50:53,217
Bitcoin community as a whole to embrace some kind of change that could be beneficial? Or is in some

2185
02:50:53,217 --> 02:50:57,378
ways, I think like we need a significant change. There needs to be something big that happens.

2186
02:50:57,378 --> 02:51:01,938
It can't just be like tweaking our way, like tweaking a couple of things to making it work.

2187
02:51:01,938 --> 02:51:07,618
Like you really need a software that enables drivechains and or CTV and or other cool things like

2188
02:51:07,618 --> 02:51:12,738
maybe that we haven't thought of. Do you think that's like reasonably possible in Bitcoin? Like

2189
02:51:12,738 --> 02:51:17,217
I know it's everything's in the realm of possibility, but with so many people, having been

2190
02:51:17,217 --> 02:51:22,417
so hardened, can people come out of that state in time so that Bitcoin can actually keep those

2191
02:51:22,417 --> 02:51:29,138
shelling, those network effects, Schelling point kind of thing? Well, I got it. I had a question

2192
02:51:29,138 --> 02:51:36,017
that also might answer that. And that is perhaps with enough time, people will forget about these

2193
02:51:36,017 --> 02:51:44,977
current squabbles. And it'll be, it'll just, it'll be a new generation of. I do hope that. I mean,

2194
02:51:44,977 --> 02:51:49,938
weirdly, though, you still see the echoes of it constantly. And I think that when people are new,

2195
02:51:49,938 --> 02:51:56,578
they do a good job of like, you know, you show up and it's your first day of whatever, college,

2196
02:51:56,578 --> 02:52:00,738
I don't know, just making this up the first day of work. You know, people are good at knowing

2197
02:52:00,738 --> 02:52:05,457
they're new. And they kind of like took, they look around and they get a grasp of like the queues

2198
02:52:05,457 --> 02:52:11,378
of like the little norms and things. So, so I'm not, that's a neat idea. I wish that would happen.

2199
02:52:11,378 --> 02:52:14,897
I mean, you can kind of see it a little bit. I do think there are some people who are new

2200
02:52:15,698 --> 02:52:18,977
and they do seem much more just open-minded and they're just like,

2201
02:52:19,618 --> 02:52:24,977
liberated from the chaos of this horrible event. I think socially,

2202
02:52:26,897 --> 02:52:31,777
like one thing is I think the cult will ultimately destroy itself. I don't know how long it will

2203
02:52:31,777 --> 02:52:38,417
take or what form, but you see it today with, you know, it's like kind of like, like woke and

2204
02:52:38,417 --> 02:52:47,618
whatever SJW type stuff. It goes far beyond what it, you know, it had maybe at the very beginnings

2205
02:52:47,618 --> 02:52:53,698
of its history, some useful knowledge. And then it, like most things, it goes too far and then

2206
02:52:53,698 --> 02:52:59,298
it self-destructs. And the only question is how long and what else will they take down with them?

2207
02:52:59,938 --> 02:53:04,337
And so I think that, but that's just kind of true of just about everything.

2208
02:53:05,378 --> 02:53:10,578
That was also true of like, like Ayn Rand accidentally started a cult around herself

2209
02:53:10,578 --> 02:53:17,058
that sort of persisted even after she died. And so things like this happen.

2210
02:53:18,258 --> 02:53:24,097
It's a well-known thing. And then they eventually become so unreasonable. Unfortunately, I say this

2211
02:53:24,097 --> 02:53:29,857
with a, with a regret that I think Austrian economics kind of is like that, or at least it

2212
02:53:29,857 --> 02:53:35,618
was until Bitcoin came around where it was just determined to be niche. And it just enjoyed being

2213
02:53:35,618 --> 02:53:40,258
misunderstood and self-pityed. And it just stayed, it's like to stay small. And one of the ways it

2214
02:53:40,258 --> 02:53:48,897
stayed small was by violently ejecting people who didn't totally conform to the extreme format.

2215
02:53:48,897 --> 02:53:55,537
And then indirectly Bitcoin has breathed some life into it, maybe even more life than it deserves

2216
02:53:55,537 --> 02:54:00,097
since the Austrians all hated Bitcoin when it first came out. I remember it. They're not going

2217
02:54:00,097 --> 02:54:02,818
to, I'm not going to let them get away with this either. They're going to try, everyone's trying

2218
02:54:02,818 --> 02:54:08,977
to say, oh, Austrian economics, Bitcoin. Everyone hated it. Peter Schiff still hates it. People

2219
02:54:08,977 --> 02:54:16,417
didn't like it. Bitcoin practically went mainstream before the Austrians. Then afterwards, Austrian

2220
02:54:16,417 --> 02:54:23,298
economics tried to take credit for Bitcoin after they hated it for so long. So Peter Schiff has

2221
02:54:23,298 --> 02:54:32,818
even admitted that he should have bought more Bitcoin on the podcast. So socially the cult

2222
02:54:32,818 --> 02:54:39,618
will destroy itself eventually, or it will just become irrelevant and mocked. I don't know how

2223
02:54:39,618 --> 02:54:46,097
long that'll take. The good thing about high fees is they do represent a problem. So you have high

2224
02:54:46,097 --> 02:54:53,217
fees. If the fees are a hundred dollars per transaction consistently, then it does open the

2225
02:54:53,217 --> 02:54:59,698
door for someone to say, well, what's, what is, oh, I have a new idea. Oh, what is it? Oh, it's called

2226
02:54:59,698 --> 02:55:06,657
Litecoin. Imagine that Litecoin had never been invented. You say, well, okay, Litecoin, what is that?

2227
02:55:06,657 --> 02:55:11,537
And then they say, well, it's like Bitcoin, but you don't have to pay the hundred dollar fee.

2228
02:55:12,498 --> 02:55:16,017
And then the regular person is like, oh, that makes sense. Yeah, that saves a hundred dollars

2229
02:55:16,017 --> 02:55:24,017
every time. So this whole thing about, it creates a problem and then that, you know, that just,

2230
02:55:24,017 --> 02:55:31,857
it focuses everyone on solving the problem. And you could say the same for just, you know,

2231
02:55:31,857 --> 02:55:38,017
Litecoin is just an example. Anything that would do that would, that would include, you know, like

2232
02:55:38,017 --> 02:55:42,657
a drivechain type thing. It might include, it probably doesn't include the Lightning Network,

2233
02:55:42,657 --> 02:55:48,258
but it might include ARK. It might include Bitcoin SV, et cetera, type things, you know,

2234
02:55:48,258 --> 02:55:56,897
Bitcoin Cash type things. Or just other L2s, state chains, whatever. So that's the good thing

2235
02:55:56,897 --> 02:56:02,897
about the high fees. It's bad that they are a problem because problems are bad. But at least

2236
02:56:02,897 --> 02:56:08,417
it takes what is a nebulous, something that would be like a nebulous, arcane, abstract problem that

2237
02:56:08,417 --> 02:56:15,378
we'd have to take in theory today. We're all like kind of theorists now. Transform this theoretical

2238
02:56:15,378 --> 02:56:19,777
problem into just a very tangible problem that you can just point at and say, this is the problem

2239
02:56:19,777 --> 02:56:30,337
that I'm solving. So that would help. As anyone who listens, who's been listening for a while,

2240
02:56:30,738 --> 02:56:35,458
there's this guy, Alex Kravitz, who shows up in our space sometimes, and he talks about the

2241
02:56:35,458 --> 02:56:44,098
feepocalypse. And his view is that fees will continue to increase for a while, and that

2242
02:56:44,098 --> 02:56:52,978
this will eventually destroy the credibility of the current generation of like media personality,

2243
02:56:53,938 --> 02:57:02,098
which he calls like the priests. So people will turn to whatever, like Peter McCormick,

2244
02:57:02,098 --> 02:57:09,617
for answers or something, and then they won't get the answers. And then next time,

2245
02:57:09,617 --> 02:57:15,218
they'll pick up technical podcast hosts or something like that, where people will think,

2246
02:57:15,858 --> 02:57:25,137
what do I do? I've been dollar cost averaging, and I've been buying $200 of Bitcoin every month,

2247
02:57:27,058 --> 02:57:35,058
and now each of these is a dust UTXO. So, you know what I mean? Like if the fees go to,

2248
02:57:37,218 --> 02:57:41,377
they go to $200 a transaction, then all that person's money has been wiped out,

2249
02:57:41,938 --> 02:57:50,978
will cost them $200 to spend each of those $200 inputs, or just about. So yeah, social landscape,

2250
02:57:50,978 --> 02:57:57,458
I don't know. Usually, like when the price goes up, everyone just feels good. So they think,

2251
02:57:59,458 --> 02:58:02,978
let the good times, laissez les bons temps rouler, it would have been nice for

2252
02:58:03,458 --> 02:58:12,017
Riyadh to hear my Creole attempt at French there. But let the good times roll, baby,

2253
02:58:12,017 --> 02:58:22,978
when we have number go up, everyone is very happy. So they're not in like a problem-solving mood.

2254
02:58:24,578 --> 02:58:29,698
What would certainly stimulate a creative search for new ideas would be if like Ethereum flip

2255
02:58:30,178 --> 02:58:35,058
into BTC. But I don't think that's, that seems actually less likely to happen than ever, because

2256
02:58:36,178 --> 02:58:42,098
Ethereum is being devoured by its own variants, such as Solana and these other things.

2257
02:58:42,978 --> 02:58:47,938
And they may emerge from that stronger than ever, or they may not, I don't know.

2258
02:58:49,938 --> 02:58:55,298
So it sounds like what we need then, we need, I say we need, but you know, in order to encourage

2259
02:58:55,377 --> 02:58:59,298
I say we need, but you know, in order to encourage some kind of like impetus for a social

2260
02:59:00,178 --> 02:59:04,818
shift in the landscape, we need fees to go up, the bull market to happen or whatever.

2261
02:59:04,818 --> 02:59:09,617
And then when the bear market comes, we need fees to still be really high. Maybe that's because

2262
02:59:09,617 --> 02:59:15,698
Bitcoin is now valued over $100,000 consistently, even at the bear market low, but everyone thinking,

2263
02:59:15,698 --> 02:59:20,818
okay, I'll just wait it out and I'll get my money back. I'll get above the dust threshold.

2264
02:59:21,280 --> 02:59:25,280
People will still find themselves in problems, even in the bear market. And suddenly you'll

2265
02:59:25,280 --> 02:59:30,240
have like a double whammy reason for trying to like change your mental model to, you know,

2266
02:59:30,240 --> 02:59:36,960
to have both the high fees and the bear market price hurt, price pain happening. I don't know,

2267
02:59:36,960 --> 02:59:42,239
that's just kind of like a whimsical speculation on my part. Yeah, people shouldn't want to,

2268
02:59:42,239 --> 02:59:47,200
if there's no problem, then they shouldn't do anything. So if people, they need a problem to

2269
02:59:47,200 --> 02:59:57,760
solve, you know, if there's no big problem, then no one should care. One thing that I do think,

2270
02:59:57,760 --> 03:00:05,199
I have been thinking about recently is that Elon Musk said that he started Tesla in just in order

2271
03:00:05,199 --> 03:00:10,879
to move the transition to electric vehicles forward by a few years. And by starting the

2272
03:00:10,879 --> 03:00:20,559
company, he hoped just to kind of shock the big automakers into doing electric vehicles.

2273
03:00:20,559 --> 03:00:26,960
But what happened instead? I mean, they have, he had succeeded in that, but now Tesla is worth

2274
03:00:28,400 --> 03:00:37,919
unbelievably more, you know, then. So that is an interesting case of like starting up something

2275
03:00:38,799 --> 03:00:43,440
as like a demo of what to do instead, and then just accidentally taking over. Because I think

2276
03:00:44,000 --> 03:00:52,720
certainly we have a lot of like scar tissue in Bitcoin of like all this like junk has accumulated.

2277
03:00:52,720 --> 03:01:00,400
And it's just, I don't know, maybe it will be, maybe it will be that something new is created

2278
03:01:00,400 --> 03:01:09,919
that is, provides a competitive, competitive threat, you know, that would be a real problem

2279
03:01:09,919 --> 03:01:16,960
that would, that's the type of thing that would, but then it could just be also that people just

2280
03:01:16,960 --> 03:01:23,280
get over themselves. I don't know, like, you know, it's also like, the funny thing is,

2281
03:01:23,280 --> 03:01:29,440
software activation is just at this point, like a few pools upgrade their software. So

2282
03:01:31,199 --> 03:01:36,399
it's actually on paper, it's not asking for very much. And only

2283
03:01:40,399 --> 03:01:46,000
the details are a big ask. So I don't know. It's a tough question.

2284
03:01:47,839 --> 03:01:51,199
Do you know what the pool, like the people that run the pools, what their current predilections

2285
03:01:51,199 --> 03:01:56,559
are? Like, are they interested in forking? Are they kind of still agnostic? What are their,

2286
03:01:56,559 --> 03:01:58,559
like, do you have any visibility?

2287
03:02:00,800 --> 03:02:04,479
They mostly don't know a lot about these technical issues. And like,

2288
03:02:05,199 --> 03:02:09,280
so like, for example, like, so you take a pool, like, like Foundry didn't even exist

2289
03:02:10,479 --> 03:02:17,839
a few years ago. And Foundry was like, we are going to too much mining is in China,

2290
03:02:17,839 --> 03:02:24,080
we're going to have a US pool. And then you think about it, these miners, if they want to go public,

2291
03:02:24,959 --> 03:02:33,360
they have to jump all these hoops, you know, jump all these hurdles, jump through all these hoops.

2292
03:02:34,080 --> 03:02:41,520
And one of them is that they can't have money at, you know, like, you're a miner, like,

2293
03:02:41,520 --> 03:02:46,399
say, you're a miner, you're whatever, you're a great American mining, you're whoever, you know.

2294
03:02:46,479 --> 03:02:52,640
Foundry produces these, like, SOC reports that show how much money everyone has,

2295
03:02:53,199 --> 03:02:56,880
because the funds are all commingled. So there's this like, commingling issue.

2296
03:02:59,199 --> 03:03:06,399
When you have that happening, then there's something where it's like, for legal reasons,

2297
03:03:06,399 --> 03:03:12,080
you want to have you want to know, like, who, who, where is my money right now? Who owns it? And

2298
03:03:12,240 --> 03:03:16,559
where is my money right now? Who owns it? And who else owns it? Who else has a claim on it?

2299
03:03:17,440 --> 03:03:21,759
So I do all this stuff. And they put all this stuff to be like compliant. And that's why

2300
03:03:21,759 --> 03:03:27,839
Foundry is KYC. And then so like, their priorities are completely different than like,

2301
03:03:29,280 --> 03:03:36,240
they are in the same position today that the 2015 scaling to panel miners I mentioned before,

2302
03:03:36,959 --> 03:03:42,160
are in where they don't really know what to do. And they know that people have strong opinions,

2303
03:03:42,160 --> 03:03:50,320
but they don't know. I think they mostly like they don't want to disturb anything.

2304
03:03:51,679 --> 03:03:58,000
And so it won't be but I, the weird thing is before, just before this bull market started,

2305
03:03:58,000 --> 03:04:02,559
all the miners were probably set to lose. You know, they were losing like hundreds of millions

2306
03:04:02,559 --> 03:04:08,799
of dollars a year, you can look up publicly the financial statements of for example, like marathon,

2307
03:04:09,679 --> 03:04:14,880
which had like, I just browse through anyone can do this easily. I just kind of browse through all

2308
03:04:14,880 --> 03:04:20,799
this. And it's like they had like $300 million of cash on hand one year, and then there was

2309
03:04:20,799 --> 03:04:28,160
200 million and then it was like 91 million. And so the so

2310
03:04:32,000 --> 03:04:39,600
and so the that's a situation where they're, they would want to find new ideas, you know.

2311
03:04:41,679 --> 03:04:45,600
So that's another type of thing. So it's like problems here and necessity is the mother of

2312
03:04:45,600 --> 03:04:52,639
invention, as they say. And so if everyone's making a ton of money, then and you know,

2313
03:04:52,639 --> 03:04:56,320
I include myself in that, which is kind of like people say, Oh, Paul, you've been doing this for

2314
03:04:56,320 --> 03:05:04,079
a long time. You have this idea in 2015. Like, why has it taken so long? Or why do you still

2315
03:05:04,079 --> 03:05:12,000
work on it? Or why do you and it's kind of like, well, Bitcoin has been doing great since 2015.

2316
03:05:12,000 --> 03:05:18,399
So I myself, I don't feel any kind of like urgency to like declare war over between 100 when it's

2317
03:05:18,399 --> 03:05:24,239
like the greatest performing asset in the history of capitalism. So it's kind of like, yeah, I kind

2318
03:05:24,239 --> 03:05:31,200
of just like work on it in my spare time. In like 2018. It's like if things are things are kind of

2319
03:05:31,200 --> 03:05:38,399
going just fine. So it's, it's necessity is the mother of invention type of thing. But I do think

2320
03:05:38,399 --> 03:05:50,160
that we will. Yeah, this the the social climate will will continue to change. And I think that I

2321
03:05:50,160 --> 03:05:54,239
think the call is the big thing that is inevitable is that eventually the cult will just destroy

2322
03:05:54,239 --> 03:06:02,799
itself. The cult is the no true Bitcoin or cult. And it's, it's very annoying. And the idea that

2323
03:06:02,799 --> 03:06:07,920
something that has network effects, it doesn't matter if people use it is false.

2324
03:06:17,600 --> 03:06:21,519
One intriguing thing is that the rise of stuff like the stable coins,

2325
03:06:21,519 --> 03:06:25,280
USDT, and like, will they get obliterate? Will they get nuked?

2326
03:06:26,239 --> 03:06:32,320
From orbit by one regulator will just destroy tether? Is that going to happen?

2327
03:06:35,119 --> 03:06:40,639
Does tether have like, I bet they do some extremely sophisticated plan with involving

2328
03:06:40,639 --> 03:06:44,399
like lots of like shadow banking and like euro dollars and like dollar equivalents.

2329
03:06:48,720 --> 03:06:53,440
To like make it impossible for people to like stop them from paying us dollars out to people

2330
03:06:53,760 --> 03:06:57,519
who want them like that would be so cool if they did.

2331
03:06:59,519 --> 03:07:04,160
Doesn't matter. I don't know. But the USDT is one thing that seems to be getting more and

2332
03:07:04,160 --> 03:07:10,399
more popular among actual users. People love they just love this USDT thing.

2333
03:07:12,160 --> 03:07:16,239
Regular people, if I go around the world, or even around the United States,

2334
03:07:17,200 --> 03:07:24,079
it's kind of popular. It sounds crazy to us. But especially to people in different countries,

2335
03:07:25,119 --> 03:07:30,000
they love the US dollar. And the USDT is just like, they just download an app,

2336
03:07:30,000 --> 03:07:32,720
and then they can just send and receive it immediately. So it's kind of like

2337
03:07:34,880 --> 03:07:40,239
they get a huge number of they get a lot of benefits from this, from this thing, which they

2338
03:07:40,239 --> 03:07:54,160
really like. They you know, many of them live in a place where they're all their money can be seized

2339
03:07:55,600 --> 03:07:59,360
or inflated away, you know, Argentina, Africa, whatever. So

2340
03:08:01,360 --> 03:08:06,959
so having USDT is a big upgrade. I don't know. Not sure if that answers anyone's questions or

2341
03:08:06,959 --> 03:08:12,560
if. Why don't we? We've been going for a little while. So why don't we just

2342
03:08:13,519 --> 03:08:18,560
put it in for last opportunity to ask a question. Come on up.

2343
03:08:21,600 --> 03:08:24,560
Ask a question. Don't ask a question.

2344
03:08:28,959 --> 03:08:29,759
Leave a comment.

2345
03:08:29,759 --> 03:08:37,360
Or don't last chance.

2346
03:08:41,680 --> 03:08:49,040
I have a funny contest where I'm paying a tiny amount of money like $20 to anyone who can guess

2347
03:08:49,839 --> 03:08:54,079
when it is that ocean will mine their third block, they've got to.

2348
03:08:55,040 --> 03:09:00,160
But it's funny people giving ocean so much attention complaining about it, praising it.

2349
03:09:01,280 --> 03:09:07,680
And yet, only two blocks, which I kind of think like speaks to like, do we want to have Twitter

2350
03:09:07,680 --> 03:09:11,120
run the world? Or do we want or is there something to be said for proof of work,

2351
03:09:11,680 --> 03:09:16,879
as kind of giving us an objective view? On one hand, Bitcoin or say,

2352
03:09:16,879 --> 03:09:23,759
we don't want the miners to control Bitcoin, or whatever that means. But on the other hand,

2353
03:09:23,759 --> 03:09:33,199
people say like, proof of work is the only reliable indicator of objective, you know,

2354
03:09:33,199 --> 03:09:39,600
reality or something or objectivity. So maybe there's a little bit of a contradiction. But

2355
03:09:39,600 --> 03:09:43,839
in any event, it seems like no one else wants to come up. So thanks, everyone.

2356
03:09:46,879 --> 03:09:54,639
For a great space. As usual, so thanks very much. See everyone next week.

2357
03:09:57,999 --> 03:10:00,079
And we'll see Peter Todd next week, right?

2358
03:10:01,280 --> 03:10:07,920
I think on Stefan Levera on Tuesday. But it gets rescheduled a lot. So hopefully

2359
03:10:07,920 --> 03:10:11,920
will happen. See if he responds to any of my 10 questions that I put in the image.

2360
03:10:11,920 --> 03:10:16,879
Yeah, we'll see.