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Hey, I'm Jeff and Paul Sztorc, great having you guys on.

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And it's my first threesome.

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How are you guys?

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You never forget your first.

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How are you guys?

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I'm good.

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I mean, I think a little too much Twitter, like Twitter is not good.

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Is it good for the body or is it not?

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Probably not.

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Well, I mean, I woke up at seven this morning and I saw that tweet from, what's his
name,

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Alex B. And he completely had no idea what he's talking about when it comes to MEV.

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You know, I was like, reordering transactions.

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And then this guy's like, he completely gets the definition utterly and totally
wrong.

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And I was just like, you've just wasted my time.

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Yeah.

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Well, yeah, that's exactly what I feel is that what I think actually happened was he

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realized he was completely wrong.

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And so he just tried it.

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Yes.

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Now he's trying to like, kind of just evade the issue.

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What did he say?

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I missed it.

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Like, did he change something?

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You know, it's just recently.

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It's a poking thing.

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Well, so he's now saying that when he says MEV, he does not see what everyone with a

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brain would think when he says Drivechains cause MEV.

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They would think, okay, Drivechains let us copy altcoins, Ethereum has MEV, but
Bitcoin

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does not.

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They're thinking the Ethereum MEV is somehow going to corrupt everything.

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That's what literally everyone with a brain would think.

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And so now he's just like, he's slowly morphed around changing this definition
around and

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around and around.

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And now he just literally, well, he said yesterday that to him, it literally just
means more

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fees are being paid to the L1 miner.

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So if you were going to pay two cents, if you're going to pay 50 cents for your
Bitcoin

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and say you pay 75 cents, that is now MEV that's equal to, exactly according to him,

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equal to the Drivechain MEV effect, but it just means nothing.

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So I don't know.

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I think look forward to more preview of coming attractions.

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I think as more people learn about Drivechain, they will ask, they're going to say,
why don't

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we have this?

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And then someone's going to say, well, blah, blah, blah.

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Like maybe some miners might go out of business or they might come into business.

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And it's like, no one has ever cared about that ever.

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It's all fake.

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It's all just fake objections.

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It's not real.

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The idea that what is, why are people now saying, they're saying Drivechain is a
block

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size increase.

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I think it's because I try to say it gives the large blockers what they want.

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They really don't get like the core idea is if you wanted the large blocks, you have
them.

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If you don't want them, you do not.

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So then they say, well, this is exactly the same as being forced to have large
blocks.

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It's the exact opposite of that.

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But I don't know.

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I think the argument is that, I think the large block thing is that somehow they
don't

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understand BMM.

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So they think all the miners have to validate all the chains.

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So that's a large block size increase.

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I've also heard one that the guy was saying that you could have an inflation on one
of

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the sidechains.

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Stop and decrypt.

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It's been around for a long time.

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Why is he saying that?

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That's like literally the one thing that absolutely they can never do under any
circumstances.

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And if people are saying stuff like that, they're saying, oh, what about this L2,
either

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have inflation.

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First of all, sidechains can never have inflation because as soon as there's any
inflation issue,

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everyone will be, it will be like it's a wonderful life bank run and everyone will
try to get

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their money out and most people will not get, the sidechain will just be
obliterated like

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in the next very next instant.

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So that will never happen.

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But if it does, it will fix itself instantaneously and only affect the people who
opted into

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it.

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But why would like, like this, people say something like this new thing will become

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more popular and it will have inflation over there.

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It's kind of like, like there's so many other things that could be like Coinbase,
Custodial

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Lightning or whatever.

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Like no one is, no one is like where it would be a thousand times easier for this
story

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to play out.

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It's all just like, you know, I have to say, I don't want to make it into like a
kind of

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a dark thing, but you know, the real reasons are something like, I think like value
of

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Blockstream stock options, people who have invested in something else, like some
kind

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of like they invest in some kind of other company that, you know, something like
that

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where they will maybe lose a lot of money or maybe it's maybe a lot of these people

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on Twitter are just like altcoiners, the altcoiners, of course, like Vitalik doesn't
really want,

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you know, Bitcoin to get BIP300 and copy Ethereum into a sidechain.

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So I don't know, but I find it like I find it like impossible.

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There's no way that these people have not even read like the November 2015 post, the

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January 2017 post, which were became BIP300/301.

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And it's a very strange.

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I don't I don't think it's a dark, dark, dark motive.

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I think it's just stupidity.

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Blockstream would benefit from BIP300 because Bitcoin would increase in value and
Blockstream

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has a bunch of Bitcoins.

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And a lot of people, I think also, but I think maybe they think something.

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Some of them think it doesn't also doesn't make any sense at all.

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The Adam Back is like one of the biggest, longest and biggest supporters, like
consistently

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ever since the idea was published in 2015.

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And discussed in 2017, he's like been the only supporter for a while.

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And then then we got like 20 other people.

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The number never goes down.

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I've been seeing a lot of a lot of supporters that I didn't know existed before
recently.

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Yes, it's like I think the Alex B thing that he's like, I gave my final
understanding of

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what he was trying to say was that if the miner, like the Bitcoin miner can mine a
block,

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that means he can mine a block for free.

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So he would have infinite profit if he was also the sidechain miner, like he
wouldn't

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have to pay his own opportunity cost.

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I think people say they play with this mandatory word.

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Well, finish it.

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Oh, no, no, no, no, not the mandatory.

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Like if you're the sidechain miner and you're also the Bitcoin miner, that means you
mine

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for free, something like that.

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That's what you don't have to pay because it's yours, it's yours.

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Something like he clearly thinks something along the lines of the sidechain block,
the

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mainchain block is worth like $4, sidechain block is worth $3.

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Total is worth $7.

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He thinks like if they vertically integrate, they get some kind of big advantage or
something.

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Yeah, I mean, I guess he's right.

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He's 43 byte, 143 byte output that switches the money from the person doing the bid.

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So you have a one millionth the size of the block.

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But like this, the whole argument is the whole argument is rotten to the core.

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It all goes down to this idea that we need to care about whether or not some miners
go

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out of business, which is like the opposite of what it's just like mining.

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It's always going out of business.

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Yeah. What about mining with cheaper hardware or cheaper energy or whatnot?

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Yeah, that happens.

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Like not all miners are mining with the same price, energy price.

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So to be consistent, they would have to be tweeting every day about how.

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It's a bad thing that Marty Bent works with Great American Mining and like that,
that they'd

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use the natural gas tax credit flaring or that people who use the miner to heat
their

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swimming pool, they should be going all around and tweeting all about how this is

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terrible. This is a benefit that can only accrue to people who have a pool, a
swimming

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pool. This is causing MEV, miner extractable.

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It should be minor like minor heated pool value.

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MHPV, this is MHPV.

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And this is literally happening right now in Ethereum, like people are heating their
pools in

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Ethereum too. So this will come to Bitcoin.

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Will come to Bitcoin.

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I mean, it just blows my mind that, of course, like it's mind numbingly obvious that

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someone who's complaining about MEV.

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They literally, the sentences they spoke were something like, this is like Bob
McElrath.

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Maybe Bob McElrath has some completely different thing.

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I'm pretty sure it's not the case.

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What all these people do is they just mix up the L1 and L2 over and over again and
they

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just can't keep it straight.

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They don't take out a piece of paper and just write it down.

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Here's the things that happen on L1.

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But Bob McElrath, did he not say like last week he was saying like.

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Bitcoin, Ethereum has MEV, but Bitcoin does not, but with Drivechains, MEV will come
to

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Bitcoin. Of course, literally everyone would think they're talking about like the
MEV

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stuff that happens on Ethereum, the reordering of the transactions and the fact that
they

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can like flip order books and things, you know, and like extract more margin.

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But no, this whole time they, so I don't know, like, I don't know what to do with
that.

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I like how Alex B tries to say all the time that we don't know, we have no idea what

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MEV is.

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We have no idea what MEV is.

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Apparently, it's something very arcane that only.

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We, we, we, no one took us up on that thing.

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For $250, no one, you know, which is not a ton of money, but of course, we just
like.

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No, there was a guy that tried, I comment there, but he, he like, he, he made a, he

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began to try.

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Alex, unfortunately, to win.

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I would love it if he won, but Alex has to say that, yes, this, this example.

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Yeah, but the funny thing that I didn't publish was that I saw the notifications on

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Twitter and he was like, trying to, to start an example and then he deleted the
tweets.

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And then I asked him on Telegram and he said, oh, I was trying to, to find MEV.

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And then I, when I finished my example, I saw that there was no MEV, so I deleted
the

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tweets.

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So we were saying, Alex or the other guy?

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No, the other guy that was trying.

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Oh, the other guy.

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Oh, the other guy tried to do the example.

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This is exactly, literally exactly what I said would happen.

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Exactly.

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I said, if you write down the example, you'll see there is no MEV effect on anyone.

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There's just people earning more money in exchange for doing what they already do.

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That is exactly what I said.

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When you write down the example, you will see, you'll, you're forced to keep it all

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clear.

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And so that is what the guy, that is what that guy did.

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And that's what Alex is still not going to do.

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And he will still get it wrong until he writes the example down.

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But now he won't, because now he's just going to pretend like he always meant.

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The fact that MEV is this Google search term associated with Ethereum is just a big

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coincidence. That is a big coincidence that just happened to, it just happened to
invade

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our Twitter conversation.

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And what he meant the whole time was more fees being paid on L1.

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So, yeah, I mean, there you go.

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None of it really matters because it's all like these, everyone is afraid, people in
the

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00:12:15,380 --> 00:12:19,380
technical community, they're afraid to like comment on, they don't want to stick
their

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neck out for something.

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So they're all spineless, basically.

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Even something like this, that is an optional soft fork that is like completely

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sanitized. They won't, they have, they're too cowardly and they won't actually, but
not

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all, many people have done the tweet and we put them at LayerTwoLabs.com slash
friends.

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00:12:37,140 --> 00:12:44,260
But, yeah, like there's an enormous amount of cowardice in Bitcoin development and
you

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00:12:44,260 --> 00:12:45,740
can see what happened with Jeremy Rubin.

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00:12:45,860 --> 00:12:49,380
You can kind of see why, too, because there's enormous amounts of money at stake,
like

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00:12:49,380 --> 00:12:53,020
prestige. You get invited to these, and I was invited to all this type of stuff,
too,

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00:12:53,020 --> 00:13:00,860
like earlier, like in 2017, 2018, 2016, 2015, I would get invited and then people,
you

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00:13:00,860 --> 00:13:05,180
could just, you could just ask someone to pay, they'd pay business class, they'd pay
for

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00:13:05,180 --> 00:13:07,180
your flight, pay for your hotel.

205
00:13:07,220 --> 00:13:10,220
You get to go all around the world to these exotic locales.

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You go to like a Scaling 2 in Hong Kong.

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That's a big deal if you're like a young person and you're like, wow, this is like

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really neat.

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There are many more great times.

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There was like, we had like this big bus that Scaling 2, we went to like this place
and

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00:13:23,740 --> 00:13:24,820
there were like fireworks.

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00:13:24,820 --> 00:13:26,420
There's like this huge stadium there.

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Yeah, it's great.

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So, so there's like all this stuff is on the line.

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00:13:31,940 --> 00:13:33,940
And meanwhile, everyone's trying to stack stats.

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00:13:34,820 --> 00:13:41,780
So all this stuff is on the line and people don't want to make a mistake and they
think

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00:13:41,780 --> 00:13:46,740
they just kind of think there's no possible way that the idea is really this good,
the

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00:13:46,740 --> 00:13:51,460
idea that would have actually kept the large blockers and small blockers together.

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00:13:51,700 --> 00:13:53,380
We wouldn't need the toxic people.

220
00:13:53,740 --> 00:13:58,260
So that's just like what people are going to slowly have to accept because they may

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00:13:58,260 --> 00:14:01,620
find it hard to believe, but it is basically the truth.

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00:14:01,620 --> 00:14:06,020
So what we have to just hunt down, I think we have to aggressively hunt down.

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Like the last fake remaining reasons, and that's why we are we hired Peter Todd, and
I

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00:14:12,980 --> 00:14:19,940
think that's money very well spent, I think, based on what his Twitter activity
already

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00:14:19,940 --> 00:14:25,260
is. And, you know, feel free to take notes and change your strategy completely if
you

226
00:14:25,260 --> 00:14:29,900
listen to this, which I encourage, because what it's ultimately he's going to have
to

227
00:14:29,900 --> 00:14:34,220
do at the end of the day, years from now, maybe I don't know when he'll ultimately
have

228
00:14:34,220 --> 00:14:40,940
to just admit that he was wrong to criticize merge mining in the way that he did
back in

229
00:14:40,940 --> 00:14:42,820
2014. He was trying to help.

230
00:14:43,740 --> 00:14:48,300
Peter Todd knows probably more about Bitcoin than I do, and, you know, I like look
at some

231
00:14:48,300 --> 00:14:52,660
of the stuff he's written, it's very clear, it's very admirable, but anyone can have
a

232
00:14:52,980 --> 00:14:57,500
anyone can make a mistake, you know, Tiger Woods can have a bad day or something.

233
00:14:58,460 --> 00:15:03,700
And like, so he has this idea about merge mining that is untrue, that it very
significantly

234
00:15:03,700 --> 00:15:09,020
affects either the economics of individual miners, which is completely false for
that

235
00:15:09,020 --> 00:15:10,820
swimming pool reason we already discussed.

236
00:15:11,340 --> 00:15:15,820
Miners get all kinds of benefits, costs, the bottom half get fired every two weeks.

237
00:15:15,820 --> 00:15:16,900
It's completely irrelevant.

238
00:15:16,900 --> 00:15:18,620
We should not care about what miners do.

239
00:15:18,940 --> 00:15:25,140
Or he thinks that merge mining significantly affects who can become a mining pool,
which

240
00:15:25,340 --> 00:15:27,700
is completely wrong for a totally different reason.

241
00:15:28,500 --> 00:15:33,900
But it's because the economics of mining pools, pools, the only reason pools exist
is

242
00:15:33,900 --> 00:15:39,380
because if you have a small miner, one forty five hundredth the size, you'll be more

243
00:15:39,380 --> 00:15:42,580
than on average more than 31 days before you find a block.

244
00:15:43,420 --> 00:15:47,340
And that's just too much variance for most people to stomach.

245
00:15:47,340 --> 00:15:51,140
Even if on average that would be OK, that means that sometimes you're going three or

246
00:15:51,140 --> 00:15:54,180
four months without any revenue coming in.

247
00:15:55,220 --> 00:15:56,460
Meanwhile, you have to pay your costs.

248
00:15:56,460 --> 00:16:01,260
And meanwhile, some guy down the street, same situation as you, same costs.

249
00:16:01,260 --> 00:16:06,140
But they they hit two in a row off the bat and now they have the flush with cash.

250
00:16:06,340 --> 00:16:07,860
So that's why pools exist.

251
00:16:08,300 --> 00:16:15,420
And the any of these effects on like how much the pool software costs is like

252
00:16:15,420 --> 00:16:22,260
literally one one hundred millionth of the it has no literally no actual effect that

253
00:16:22,260 --> 00:16:27,180
the idea that the mining pool operator might decide that they they would best serve

254
00:16:27,180 --> 00:16:32,860
their clients by running sidechain software, running different software, fee
maximizing

255
00:16:32,860 --> 00:16:34,460
software, MEV software, whatever.

256
00:16:35,220 --> 00:16:41,100
The fact that that would never, ever affect the optimal pool size at all.

257
00:16:41,740 --> 00:16:43,980
It's just not. And it's also there's an intriguing.

258
00:16:45,740 --> 00:16:47,020
Isn't the BMM free?

259
00:16:47,020 --> 00:16:49,620
The BMM means that they don't even have to do it at all anyway.

260
00:16:49,860 --> 00:16:54,900
Right. But the thing with the BMM is even though sidechains are defined as something
that

261
00:16:54,900 --> 00:17:00,060
uses BIP300/301, Drivechain is defined, excuse me, Drivechain is defined
that

262
00:17:00,060 --> 00:17:04,540
way. Someone could always say something like, well, what if the sidechain designer
just.

263
00:17:06,260 --> 00:17:10,060
Like no one said that ever, no one has ever, no one has been smart enough to think
of that

264
00:17:10,060 --> 00:17:14,980
yet, but they but they could always say, like, what if they said that they program
it in

265
00:17:14,980 --> 00:17:19,140
such a way, even though this isn't really possible, they program in such a way that
BMM

266
00:17:19,140 --> 00:17:23,420
will never work, you know, even though it's just a hash, it's paying money on L1 for
a

267
00:17:23,420 --> 00:17:29,460
hash. To do that, you have to make it like impossible to like hash the block on L2.

268
00:17:29,460 --> 00:17:33,980
But which is like, you know, but someone could say so, but no one has ever said that

269
00:17:33,980 --> 00:17:36,340
because because they don't actually they can't tell the difference.

270
00:17:36,340 --> 00:17:41,100
They don't know Fiat, as you know, perfectly well, Fiat, Joff, Blind Merged Mining
and

271
00:17:41,100 --> 00:17:44,460
regular merge mining are mostly like pretty similar.

272
00:17:44,900 --> 00:17:49,060
And with the exception that Blind Merged Mining is just much more convenient for
literally

273
00:17:49,060 --> 00:17:51,620
everyone. So that's why everyone will do it.

274
00:17:52,140 --> 00:17:56,340
But merge mining cannot be stopped on L1.

275
00:17:56,340 --> 00:18:00,900
There's no way, paradoxically, even though it's very easy to stop most of this is
the

276
00:18:00,900 --> 00:18:04,900
normal philosophical paradigm is inverted because many people think, oh, we can mine

277
00:18:04,900 --> 00:18:07,660
node filters things out on L1.

278
00:18:08,380 --> 00:18:10,300
So they think we can filter out.

279
00:18:10,860 --> 00:18:18,340
So there could be an argument that merge mining without without the blindness could

280
00:18:18,340 --> 00:18:20,620
somehow affect the incentives.

281
00:18:21,020 --> 00:18:22,340
But this is already possible.

282
00:18:23,460 --> 00:18:26,860
It's the same thing as before, where the miners, it's up to the miners what risks
they

283
00:18:26,860 --> 00:18:31,420
want to take in return for what financial compensation.

284
00:18:31,420 --> 00:18:33,420
So we should. Yeah, but that's already possible.

285
00:18:33,420 --> 00:18:38,580
And if you introduce Blind Merged Mining, you remove that, you remove that risk.

286
00:18:38,580 --> 00:18:42,900
Exactly. But even without Blind Merged Mining, it would be something like ASIC boost,
where

287
00:18:42,900 --> 00:18:47,420
something like if they do it to them, that's up to them and they miss a couple, they
have

288
00:18:47,420 --> 00:18:48,940
like false positives or something.

289
00:18:49,380 --> 00:18:50,580
But that's not an issue.

290
00:18:51,420 --> 00:18:57,380
The philosophical inversion I would like to highlight is that people think what they
think

291
00:18:57,380 --> 00:19:00,540
is they have a full node and they think this is my full node.

292
00:19:00,540 --> 00:19:05,140
But then if they think, oh, if I mine, I'm only a small percent of the hash rate.

293
00:19:05,140 --> 00:19:06,540
So I don't have as much control.

294
00:19:06,620 --> 00:19:08,940
They think I have less than one percent.

295
00:19:09,260 --> 00:19:12,740
But of course, if the Bitcoin community grows more to more than 100 people.

296
00:19:13,900 --> 00:19:18,420
Not if it goes to one hundred and one people, then someone has to go without one
percent

297
00:19:18,420 --> 00:19:22,580
of the hash rate. So what they really want is for Bitcoin to stay like a niche thing
that

298
00:19:22,580 --> 00:19:24,660
only five people have heard of or something.

299
00:19:24,820 --> 00:19:29,420
But the inversion is you go from the node to the miner to the pool because now they

300
00:19:29,420 --> 00:19:34,900
think, oh, now I'm just a small, even though I have a huge mining warehouse, I've
got to

301
00:19:35,340 --> 00:19:38,260
outsource my thinking to this pool.

302
00:19:38,260 --> 00:19:40,380
I've got to outsource my job to this pool.

303
00:19:40,380 --> 00:19:42,660
And they feel like they feel less powerful.

304
00:19:43,380 --> 00:19:46,820
But what they do not realize is that that picture is completely upside down.

305
00:19:46,820 --> 00:19:47,860
And it always has been.

306
00:19:48,500 --> 00:19:51,020
The node is the one who rejects the miners block.

307
00:19:51,020 --> 00:19:53,500
So the node trumps the pool in every way.

308
00:19:53,900 --> 00:19:55,300
The node trumps the miner in every way.

309
00:19:55,380 --> 00:20:00,500
And similarly, the miners, they don't they cannot reject the block in the normal
way.

310
00:20:00,500 --> 00:20:06,020
But for every every practical sense and purpose, they can do the exact same thing
because

311
00:20:06,020 --> 00:20:10,700
they're the ones who point their hash at the pool and any drop of a hat.

312
00:20:10,700 --> 00:20:12,860
They can just say, I don't like this pool anymore.

313
00:20:13,140 --> 00:20:16,740
It's the philosophical equivalent of rejecting a block.

314
00:20:16,780 --> 00:20:22,500
They say, I reject this pool and they can go immediately to a new pool or start a
pool.

315
00:20:23,340 --> 00:20:25,740
And people just feel upset about these pools.

316
00:20:25,740 --> 00:20:30,820
They just don't realize that what they want is for there to be a room full of one
hundred and one people.

317
00:20:30,980 --> 00:20:33,780
And they want everyone to have at least one percent of the hash.

318
00:20:33,780 --> 00:20:35,580
The pool is what is doing that.

319
00:20:35,580 --> 00:20:37,100
The pool lets all these people mine.

320
00:20:37,100 --> 00:20:40,260
Whereas before, they would never be able to tolerate the variance.

321
00:20:40,820 --> 00:20:42,980
The pool is making the job easier.

322
00:20:43,540 --> 00:20:45,780
So it's the whole thing upside down.

323
00:20:45,860 --> 00:20:51,580
Haters, they want this mining paradise or something like that.

324
00:20:51,580 --> 00:20:53,380
Repeat, what did you say, Fiat Jeff?

325
00:20:54,340 --> 00:21:02,980
You're saying that the Drivechain haters, they want this mining paradise in which
everybody mines?

326
00:21:03,580 --> 00:21:05,820
Yeah, they think they do, but they don't really like.

327
00:21:05,820 --> 00:21:09,060
So they have a lot of things completely backwards.

328
00:21:09,060 --> 00:21:16,220
Like one of the things that they don't like, as you now have seen, is they don't
like it when there's lots and lots of revenues flowing to the miners.

329
00:21:16,700 --> 00:21:21,660
So they want everyone to be like a like a kind of like mining for free monk or
something.

330
00:21:21,660 --> 00:21:22,820
And they only want there to be five.

331
00:21:23,580 --> 00:21:25,140
I don't know if that's what they think.

332
00:21:25,140 --> 00:21:26,260
That's that's hard to believe.

333
00:21:26,260 --> 00:21:27,620
I think they don't quite realize it.

334
00:21:27,620 --> 00:21:35,980
But this whole the security budget concept, the idea of the fees flowing from the
sidechains to miners, that does not entice them.

335
00:21:35,980 --> 00:21:38,180
They just think that is just a bet.

336
00:21:38,500 --> 00:21:43,340
And what causes specialization in mining is the upward difficulty adjustments.

337
00:21:43,340 --> 00:21:46,420
Every two weeks, the bottom half of the people are fired.

338
00:21:47,420 --> 00:21:52,220
And that if you don't want that, if you don't want that evolution to happen.

339
00:21:53,620 --> 00:21:58,180
If you don't want that evolution to happen, then you have to get rid of difficulty
adjustments from blocks.

340
00:21:59,220 --> 00:22:00,180
That is what you want.

341
00:22:00,540 --> 00:22:03,340
So that is what that is what these people want.

342
00:22:03,340 --> 00:22:04,460
They just don't realize it.

343
00:22:04,460 --> 00:22:09,140
They that is what they want, because they say, well, it might be difficult for
someone to mine a block.

344
00:22:09,140 --> 00:22:12,940
But what what makes it so difficult for people to mine blocks?

345
00:22:12,940 --> 00:22:23,940
Well, if you didn't have nine million ninety nine point nine nine nine nine nine
nine nine nine nine nine nine nine nine percent of that, what makes it difficult to
find a block is the upward difficulty adjustment.

346
00:22:24,580 --> 00:22:30,700
But we know that no one of the first block today, how many blocks we have for a
second, for a second.

347
00:22:32,660 --> 00:22:34,500
We have the hash rate of the first block.

348
00:22:35,340 --> 00:22:36,220
Yeah, no.

349
00:22:36,220 --> 00:22:41,540
If you had the same difficulty, like we would have millions of blocks per second.

350
00:22:41,940 --> 00:22:44,740
That's something that we could probably check without too much.

351
00:22:44,740 --> 00:22:50,980
But we know we don't really we know that it would be that would say, see, but this
is the issue is what is why is it?

352
00:22:51,220 --> 00:22:53,100
Why do we slow down the blocks?

353
00:22:53,100 --> 00:22:56,180
It's partly for the twenty one million coin schedule.

354
00:22:56,180 --> 00:23:01,500
But but it doesn't really make any difference because all it would mean is that all
twenty one million coins would be mined sooner.

355
00:23:01,540 --> 00:23:03,780
It still doesn't like change the twenty one million coin limit.

356
00:23:03,780 --> 00:23:09,780
It just says instead of the havings being every four years, they would just be like
all of them would just happen immediately.

357
00:23:10,300 --> 00:23:12,100
So but that's not the real reason.

358
00:23:12,100 --> 00:23:14,620
The real reason is you get a lot more blocks, won't you?

359
00:23:15,820 --> 00:23:20,980
Of course, yeah, it would it would make it so that confirmations become
proportionately less meaningful.

360
00:23:20,980 --> 00:23:24,140
They would mean like one one billionth of what they mean today.

361
00:23:24,140 --> 00:23:25,500
It would be a huge mess.

362
00:23:25,500 --> 00:23:26,620
That doesn't make sense.

363
00:23:26,620 --> 00:23:32,860
Doesn't make it like clients would be instead of like clients doing only four point
four megabytes per year, which is a number that is so low.

364
00:23:32,860 --> 00:23:39,620
I find it like astounding, which is Satoshi's design that you can check all the
proof of work of all the headers for a whole year.

365
00:23:39,620 --> 00:23:44,940
Four point four megabytes only, which is so small as to be effectively negligible.

366
00:23:45,300 --> 00:23:50,140
When you download the wallet to your phone, the wallet is going to be more than 40
megabytes.

367
00:23:50,940 --> 00:23:56,660
So the whole wallet software application is so you have a situation like that.

368
00:23:58,820 --> 00:24:00,460
No one does FPV anymore.

369
00:24:00,460 --> 00:24:01,780
Like they do neutrino.

370
00:24:03,100 --> 00:24:09,580
Well, that isn't just you have to download a filter for each block and then you
check.

371
00:24:09,580 --> 00:24:13,460
Yeah, but that's like that's like SPV plus a little bit.

372
00:24:13,460 --> 00:24:17,460
You know, it's like SPV in a very much, much less efficient, but.

373
00:24:18,420 --> 00:24:27,220
But it's slightly more private, it's going to be more private, yeah, yeah, yeah,
because the main downside of SPV is that you don't have a full node.

374
00:24:27,260 --> 00:24:31,860
You can still validate most almost basically everything, but you have to get it from
somewhere first.

375
00:24:31,860 --> 00:24:33,060
Someone has to give this to you.

376
00:24:33,060 --> 00:24:37,940
You need to find a full node somewhere and they need to give you doesn't do it
anymore.

377
00:24:39,420 --> 00:24:46,620
And so if you ask them, hey, did anyone send any money to such and such, then
they're going to know they're going to think, well.

378
00:24:48,140 --> 00:24:59,220
You know, I mean, I when I was a lot back back in the day when I was like just
starting my career, just commenting on Bitcoin or whatever, I thought what the SPV
wallet should do is they should just randomly.

379
00:24:59,530 --> 00:25:26,530
We should redo the whole, we should do the scheme so that all the transactions are
numbered in every block, you should learn the maximum, and everyone should just be
querying random numbers out of a hat instead of saying, do you have a transaction
that matches this TXID, you should instead be like, do we have just just query
randomly so that you at least have plausible deniability, but Neutrino is a much, it
was very cool, of course, but way less efficient, but that's also because, you know,
it's a way less efficient.

380
00:25:26,530 --> 00:25:35,170
You know, now bandwidth speeds and costs have improved enormously since 2008, when
SPV was invented, since it was.

381
00:25:35,170 --> 00:25:44,450
I don't know, I don't know, the Lightning wallets that do the Neutrino stuff, they
take a long time to load and people keep trying to optimize it and make it better.

382
00:25:44,450 --> 00:25:56,770
They shouldn't, because the whole point of SPV is to provide this very, very good
user experience at a cost of less security.

383
00:25:56,770 --> 00:25:58,290
So I kind of think we should.

384
00:25:58,290 --> 00:26:00,770
There are some models that use the Electrum thing.

385
00:26:00,770 --> 00:26:07,250
Yeah, Electrum has been, was like my go-to wallet for most of my Bitcoin.

386
00:26:07,410 --> 00:26:11,330
Yeah, but there's the protocol that Electrum does, and it's an open thing.

387
00:26:11,330 --> 00:26:20,370
That's a bunch of free servers that they say are run by Chain Analysis, and you can
query there and they will give you everything, all the information you need.

388
00:26:21,730 --> 00:26:26,850
Yeah, it is not good for privacy for the exact reason we described.

389
00:26:26,850 --> 00:26:35,010
You need to pair up, every Lite client needs to pair up with a full node that is
like a friend, and then you ask them, hey, is this transaction in a block?

390
00:26:35,010 --> 00:26:44,210
And then they know, they have reason to suspect that, okay, we think that, why would
you ask about that unless that was your own transaction?

391
00:26:44,210 --> 00:26:44,710
Yeah.

392
00:26:46,130 --> 00:26:54,130
So, anyway, we were talking about this because the SPV would be obliterated if we
remove difficulty adjustments for blocks.

393
00:26:54,130 --> 00:26:56,530
So that's one thing that would be hurt, but another thing is that-

394
00:26:56,530 --> 00:27:00,850
Another argument that I, sorry, another argument that I saw-

395
00:27:00,850 --> 00:27:01,330
There you go.

396
00:27:01,330 --> 00:27:02,290
Sorry, go, go, go.

397
00:27:03,090 --> 00:27:04,210
Okay, I'll go then.

398
00:27:04,210 --> 00:27:19,330
It's the, if you, if the blocks are spread out so that they take 10 minutes, but the
header is only 80 bytes and the hash of the block is only 32 bytes, of which each
header contains the hash of the previous block.

399
00:27:19,330 --> 00:27:22,050
So you can kind of, you double count for free.

400
00:27:22,930 --> 00:27:31,810
The, if you live in that situation, then it's, see, Greg Maxwell wrote this proof a
long time ago about distributed consensus being impossible.

401
00:27:31,890 --> 00:27:40,930
And what he, there's a number in his proof where if you swap it with like a zero,
basically, I'm speaking very loosely here.

402
00:27:40,930 --> 00:27:44,930
I hope no one, like, holds me too closely to this interpretation.

403
00:27:44,930 --> 00:27:47,730
Although I would also be interested to learn if this was exactly the case.

404
00:27:47,730 --> 00:27:49,570
But I remember, this is what I remember.

405
00:27:50,530 --> 00:27:56,530
The proof is like, you can, there'll always be forks or something because of, you
know, the speed of light or whatever.

406
00:27:56,530 --> 00:28:01,170
So what you, what Satoshi did is he says, this block, that's really one megabyte.

407
00:28:02,210 --> 00:28:11,730
And instead of being a continuous thing where the bytes all just blur out, Satoshi
packed them into discrete chunks called blocks.

408
00:28:12,530 --> 00:28:23,330
And even though the speed of light makes it so that information isn't everywhere at
once, what Satoshi did was he shrunk the problem down to this tiny size.

409
00:28:23,330 --> 00:28:31,170
And that size is one 80-byte header making it around the world in less than 10
minutes.

410
00:28:33,010 --> 00:28:39,330
And 80 bytes is so small and 10 minutes is so long that it's effectively zero,
basically.

411
00:28:39,330 --> 00:28:42,290
The odds that it, like, will not be possible are zero.

412
00:28:42,930 --> 00:28:44,770
So that's the cheat.

413
00:28:44,770 --> 00:28:48,690
That's the hack that made, that was, that's the hack that made it all work.

414
00:28:49,330 --> 00:28:53,010
And that is what you get by slowing the blocks down to make them 10 minutes.

415
00:28:53,010 --> 00:28:55,010
So that's why we have upward difficulty adjustments.

416
00:28:55,650 --> 00:28:57,730
And so, but no one seriously wants to do that.

417
00:28:57,730 --> 00:28:59,250
These are just people who are very confused.

418
00:28:59,250 --> 00:29:04,050
Almost everyone who's confused about Drivechain, I think they just mix up L1 and L2.

419
00:29:05,490 --> 00:29:10,930
They just, because they think, because it's the whole thing is like it's supposed to
be perfect for everyone.

420
00:29:10,930 --> 00:29:17,090
So it's like the large block people are like, wait a minute, we don't want any large
blocks touching Bitcoin.

421
00:29:17,090 --> 00:29:22,130
And it's like, well, the small block, the large block people look at it and they
say, well, wait a minute.

422
00:29:22,130 --> 00:29:23,570
Why do, why do I have to move?

423
00:29:23,570 --> 00:29:25,250
Why am I the one who has to move to a different chain?

424
00:29:26,530 --> 00:29:32,290
So people mixing up L1, L2, people who don't understand that it's a good thing

425
00:29:32,290 --> 00:29:36,210
when miners earn more money, like not a bad thing.

426
00:29:36,210 --> 00:29:37,010
That's a good thing.

427
00:29:37,010 --> 00:29:38,450
It's like Peter Todd is in that.

428
00:29:38,450 --> 00:29:41,570
So, I mean, we could talk about Peter Todd in Emerge Mining.

429
00:29:41,570 --> 00:29:46,930
That he's this crusade about, about it being difficult.

430
00:29:46,930 --> 00:29:49,090
So this is in the context of the block size war.

431
00:29:49,090 --> 00:29:54,690
And he was, it was also in the context of him inventing something called the tree
chains that he never finished.

432
00:29:54,690 --> 00:29:56,290
So he had a competitor to sidechain.

433
00:29:56,290 --> 00:30:00,210
So of course he had to bash sidechains, which is fair game, you know.

434
00:30:00,210 --> 00:30:02,290
What's the deal with the tree chains?

435
00:30:02,290 --> 00:30:03,250
I tried to read about it.

436
00:30:03,250 --> 00:30:07,490
He never finished it because, and I may have been, I don't know to what extent I'm
responsible for this.

437
00:30:07,490 --> 00:30:09,170
But he was talking about it for a while.

438
00:30:10,130 --> 00:30:11,330
Never materialized.

439
00:30:11,330 --> 00:30:12,290
Where's tree chains?

440
00:30:12,290 --> 00:30:13,010
No one knows.

441
00:30:13,730 --> 00:30:15,090
People would make jokes about it.

442
00:30:15,090 --> 00:30:17,570
Other elite Bitcoin developers would be like, where is that?

443
00:30:17,570 --> 00:30:18,450
Oh, it's never going to arrive.

444
00:30:19,010 --> 00:30:27,090
And then he presented it in a breakout session at Scaling 3 in Milan in 2016,
October.

445
00:30:28,290 --> 00:30:32,290
And then the whole point of it is it's all client-side validation.

446
00:30:32,290 --> 00:30:34,050
So it became single-use seals.

447
00:30:34,050 --> 00:30:37,490
But I said, it became RGB probably, something like that.

448
00:30:37,970 --> 00:30:42,290
But then I asked this question of like, well, the whole point of doing this is

449
00:30:42,290 --> 00:30:44,610
so that the layer one nodes and the layer one...

450
00:30:44,610 --> 00:30:48,690
Peter's obsession, I think, philosophically, is engineering obsession.

451
00:30:48,690 --> 00:30:50,370
You know how people have different engineering obsessions?

452
00:30:50,370 --> 00:30:53,650
Like mine is giving everyone what they want.

453
00:30:53,650 --> 00:31:00,610
And his is like, he wants it to just be this blind timestamping server that doesn't
have to think.

454
00:31:00,610 --> 00:31:03,650
And he wants to just timestamp things that he doesn't know what they are.

455
00:31:03,650 --> 00:31:04,770
And only the clients know.

456
00:31:05,250 --> 00:31:06,690
Because to him, that is not...

457
00:31:07,330 --> 00:31:08,930
That's all one, always.

458
00:31:09,490 --> 00:31:11,410
Only the end user has to do it.

459
00:31:11,410 --> 00:31:14,210
The irony is that sidechains are sort of more or less what that is.

460
00:31:15,570 --> 00:31:21,090
Because the sidechains, just as a group, we all opt in to this more expensive node.

461
00:31:21,090 --> 00:31:26,530
Well, have you seen that RGB proposal, the Prime thing?

462
00:31:27,090 --> 00:31:27,570
Primer.

463
00:31:28,610 --> 00:31:29,650
Yeah, it's called Prime.

464
00:31:30,210 --> 00:31:38,050
They want Bitcoin to morph into this Prime thing that is a fully client-side
validated ledger.

465
00:31:38,770 --> 00:31:42,770
There's not a ledger, it's just these tokens that are client-side validated.

466
00:31:42,770 --> 00:31:44,610
Right, but the problem with that is...

467
00:31:47,490 --> 00:31:51,730
I asked him this question and I said, well, the whole point of this is that you want
it

468
00:31:51,730 --> 00:31:56,690
to be so that no one has to validate anything they don't want to validate.

469
00:31:57,490 --> 00:31:59,810
Or no one has to store anything they don't want to store.

470
00:32:01,330 --> 00:32:04,450
But the core part of Bitcoin's design is the transaction fee.

471
00:32:05,090 --> 00:32:07,010
So I said, well, how does the transaction fee work?

472
00:32:07,010 --> 00:32:13,570
Because in order for the miner to be paid in the treechain coin, they're now going
to

473
00:32:13,570 --> 00:32:15,010
have to be getting this.

474
00:32:15,010 --> 00:32:18,450
For every transaction they include, they're going to have to have everything.

475
00:32:18,450 --> 00:32:21,810
And at that point, they just have the whole history now.

476
00:32:21,810 --> 00:32:24,290
Because every single transaction fee, they need the whole history.

477
00:32:25,170 --> 00:32:27,490
And then he had no answer to that question.

478
00:32:29,330 --> 00:32:30,690
And then it's worse with RGB.

479
00:32:30,690 --> 00:32:32,210
It's kind of like you...

480
00:32:32,210 --> 00:32:35,410
I don't know exactly how RGB has changed, so maybe it's not that...

481
00:32:35,410 --> 00:32:43,570
But the idea is that you could pay someone a transaction fee in the RGB asset.

482
00:32:44,130 --> 00:32:48,930
But again, in order to do that, whoever you're paying the transaction fee, they have
to get

483
00:32:49,490 --> 00:32:50,210
the proof.

484
00:32:51,570 --> 00:32:52,690
So they have to get all the proofs.

485
00:32:52,690 --> 00:32:55,010
So they have to get all the proofs, all the client-side things.

486
00:32:55,010 --> 00:33:01,010
Because the client-side validation, unless it's changed enormously in the last 60
days

487
00:33:01,010 --> 00:33:05,490
or something, the way it works is you get a thing that it checks in.

488
00:33:05,490 --> 00:33:10,530
Every time that it's changed hands, when I send you something, I send you a big
email

489
00:33:10,530 --> 00:33:11,490
that has the whole chain.

490
00:33:12,610 --> 00:33:13,970
And I say, this is when it was created.

491
00:33:13,970 --> 00:33:15,410
And then here's everything that happened since.

492
00:33:15,410 --> 00:33:16,530
And now you're the new owner.

493
00:33:18,530 --> 00:33:20,290
You get the whole email chain.

494
00:33:20,290 --> 00:33:23,090
So you get like a tiny blockchain of just that asset.

495
00:33:23,090 --> 00:33:26,370
But then as you can see where I'm going with this, hopefully, which is that in order
to

496
00:33:26,370 --> 00:33:30,130
pay the transaction fee, they need to know if the transaction is valid and they need

497
00:33:30,130 --> 00:33:32,210
to know what the fee is it's paying.

498
00:33:32,210 --> 00:33:35,010
So they need to get every email chain from everything.

499
00:33:35,010 --> 00:33:37,090
So they have just the whole blockchain again.

500
00:33:38,130 --> 00:33:38,690
So I don't know.

501
00:33:39,490 --> 00:33:43,890
And also the thing is that you split the assets and then merge assets.

502
00:33:43,890 --> 00:33:47,810
And then you inherit the entire blockchain from that.

503
00:33:47,810 --> 00:33:48,370
Yeah, exactly.

504
00:33:50,530 --> 00:33:52,610
From getting multiple assets and mixing them.

505
00:33:54,370 --> 00:33:59,250
His obsession is something like the blockchain doesn't contain anything.

506
00:33:59,250 --> 00:34:00,770
This is what you're talking about with this prime.

507
00:34:00,770 --> 00:34:02,450
It doesn't contain anything.

508
00:34:02,450 --> 00:34:10,050
And then everyone else, we have to hold, we have to back up every time we trade.

509
00:34:10,050 --> 00:34:16,850
And what we hold is like a kind of proof that we own the coin that we show to other
people.

510
00:34:17,490 --> 00:34:18,930
I have another reason.

511
00:34:18,930 --> 00:34:23,650
It's sponsored by Amazon S3 because everybody wants to use that to back up.

512
00:34:23,650 --> 00:34:24,530
There's a lot of backing up.

513
00:34:24,530 --> 00:34:30,130
It should be sponsored by like Dropbox or by like, what is the like big backup?

514
00:34:30,130 --> 00:34:32,690
Like what's like the one made safe or whatever?

515
00:34:32,690 --> 00:34:34,130
And that's not the one.

516
00:34:34,130 --> 00:34:34,770
Filecoin.

517
00:34:35,890 --> 00:34:36,390
Filecoin.

518
00:34:37,090 --> 00:34:39,010
Something where you're trying to back things up.

519
00:34:39,010 --> 00:34:39,730
Like what's it called?

520
00:34:39,730 --> 00:34:40,450
Like Carbonite?

521
00:34:40,450 --> 00:34:42,690
It should be sponsored by Carbonite or something like that.

522
00:34:42,690 --> 00:34:43,730
That would be like a neat.

523
00:34:44,370 --> 00:34:51,330
But I have an interesting other, which is that I don't think that people would
actually,

524
00:34:51,330 --> 00:34:52,770
I don't think people actually like that.

525
00:34:53,330 --> 00:34:57,810
People actually like there to be something where they say, this is the thing.

526
00:34:57,810 --> 00:35:00,130
And everyone knows that I own this coin.

527
00:35:00,130 --> 00:35:01,570
It's officially registered.

528
00:35:01,570 --> 00:35:03,570
It's like a land registry or something.

529
00:35:04,690 --> 00:35:08,930
If you have, because of Alan Turing's universality of computation,

530
00:35:09,890 --> 00:35:13,570
they have this thing where there's a code in the blockchain.

531
00:35:13,570 --> 00:35:15,730
It's like a file that it has to be interpreted.

532
00:35:15,730 --> 00:35:21,570
So it's like file.jpg, like a JPEG versus dot PNG.

533
00:35:22,530 --> 00:35:24,050
It's a file on the blockchain.

534
00:35:24,050 --> 00:35:25,810
It's just this tiny code.

535
00:35:25,810 --> 00:35:28,530
And you say, listen, here's the code.

536
00:35:29,330 --> 00:35:31,490
And here's my proof.

537
00:35:32,370 --> 00:35:34,050
And here's the RGB software.

538
00:35:34,690 --> 00:35:37,250
The RGB software is like the file extension.

539
00:35:37,250 --> 00:35:41,410
The RGB, it says interpret this and this proof as something that will say, yes,

540
00:35:42,050 --> 00:35:44,850
Paul owns 80 Giacomo coin.

541
00:35:45,890 --> 00:35:46,610
Okay.

542
00:35:46,610 --> 00:35:52,370
So, but the thing is, you could have a different piece of software that I think
you'd call RGB2

543
00:35:54,050 --> 00:35:57,810
that reinterprets the same two inputs in a different way.

544
00:35:57,810 --> 00:35:59,970
It's just like, I'll shift it over a little bit.

545
00:35:59,970 --> 00:36:03,090
So then it would say that, no, I don't own that asset.

546
00:36:03,090 --> 00:36:09,570
And in fact, the software could be arbitrarily rewritten to just say anything like,

547
00:36:09,570 --> 00:36:13,410
now I own 8,000 Giacomo coin or that Giacomo coin never existed.

548
00:36:14,530 --> 00:36:19,330
So I don't know why they like RGB so much, but I think I'm in favor of pluralism.

549
00:36:19,330 --> 00:36:20,770
And I think we should try everything.

550
00:36:22,770 --> 00:36:24,770
But I don't think I have a guess.

551
00:36:24,770 --> 00:36:26,210
I have a personal feeling.

552
00:36:26,210 --> 00:36:31,330
I have a personal guess that people won't like RGB because they want to know that
they really,

553
00:36:31,330 --> 00:36:32,290
they don't want to be responsible.

554
00:36:32,290 --> 00:36:37,250
They don't want the responsibility for carrying around this luggage of the proof all
the time.

555
00:36:37,250 --> 00:36:42,610
And then the proof depends on someone else having the right software to decode the
proof.

556
00:36:43,170 --> 00:36:47,170
Whereas if all this stuff is just in the blockchain, then I think people would like
that more.

557
00:36:48,690 --> 00:36:51,330
But it'll be in whatever blockchain you want to opt into.

558
00:36:51,330 --> 00:36:52,690
The Lightning Labs did.

559
00:36:53,490 --> 00:37:00,370
It's a copy of RGB, but they added a new thing that is, you have something, I don't
know the

560
00:37:00,370 --> 00:37:06,850
name of the planet or universe or whatever, that is a server that anyone can run and
people can

561
00:37:06,850 --> 00:37:08,770
submit their proof to that server.

562
00:37:08,770 --> 00:37:13,010
And then they get a blockchain, like a blockchain explorer with the proof.

563
00:37:13,010 --> 00:37:18,290
So everybody can start to rely on that server instead of passing proofs around.

564
00:37:19,170 --> 00:37:20,850
So yeah, this is another issue.

565
00:37:22,370 --> 00:37:23,890
Like, I think this was smart.

566
00:37:23,890 --> 00:37:27,970
I think, weirdly, this is another case where Blockstream did something kind of
strange,

567
00:37:27,970 --> 00:37:31,250
where they said, people rely too much on block explorers.

568
00:37:31,250 --> 00:37:33,730
So they said, we'll make our own block explorer.

569
00:37:33,730 --> 00:37:35,330
But I never understood that at all.

570
00:37:35,330 --> 00:37:39,650
And Fiat, if you run our software, you know that what I did instead is I said, what
we have to do,

571
00:37:40,450 --> 00:37:46,930
what the only thing, what we must do is the full node software must contain a block
explorer.

572
00:37:47,490 --> 00:37:49,570
So that's what we did, of course.

573
00:37:50,690 --> 00:37:55,410
The problem is that people want to see the addresses and the history in the address.

574
00:37:55,970 --> 00:37:58,050
And if that coin was spent or not.

575
00:37:58,770 --> 00:38:00,770
And you need a giant index.

576
00:38:00,770 --> 00:38:01,730
Index, yeah.

577
00:38:01,730 --> 00:38:03,170
But the index isn't that bad, you know.

578
00:38:03,170 --> 00:38:05,330
It's actually because the block size is already so big.

579
00:38:06,690 --> 00:38:08,690
I think it's only a couple.

580
00:38:09,970 --> 00:38:12,530
I don't want to say the wrong thing, but I think it's only a few gigabytes more.

581
00:38:12,530 --> 00:38:15,490
Like, currently, the UTXO says like seven gigabytes.

582
00:38:15,490 --> 00:38:20,210
And the full transaction index, the blockchain is like 550 or something.

583
00:38:20,210 --> 00:38:22,530
I'm going to, this is going to be torture.

584
00:38:22,530 --> 00:38:24,690
But these numbers are approximately correct.

585
00:38:24,690 --> 00:38:26,610
This is like last time I ran a full node or whatever.

586
00:38:26,610 --> 00:38:33,570
But it's like 500, 600 gigabytes of block data that can all be pruned.

587
00:38:34,130 --> 00:38:36,690
It's like seven gigabytes of UTXO.

588
00:38:37,330 --> 00:38:39,970
And then the transaction index is only like a little bit.

589
00:38:39,970 --> 00:38:41,570
It's not as though the transaction index.

590
00:38:41,570 --> 00:38:44,210
But the thing that they run is an Electrum server.

591
00:38:44,210 --> 00:38:50,210
But now there are these new ones, Electors that is putting Rust and whatever.

592
00:38:50,210 --> 00:38:50,930
People love this.

593
00:38:51,890 --> 00:38:55,810
And they use the, yeah, Rust is the best thing.

594
00:38:55,810 --> 00:38:57,890
You should write Rust.

595
00:38:57,890 --> 00:38:59,170
Everybody will love it.

596
00:38:59,170 --> 00:39:09,170
But these, the main pool.space and the Blockstream explorer, they use this Electors
thing that

597
00:39:09,170 --> 00:39:11,890
indexes everything that has happened ever.

598
00:39:12,450 --> 00:39:14,370
Like, it's not just a transaction index.

599
00:39:14,370 --> 00:39:20,050
It also has, if this, you can't get this from a normal full node,

600
00:39:20,050 --> 00:39:21,490
but you can get from this Electors.

601
00:39:21,490 --> 00:39:25,730
Like if the, whatever UTXO was spent and to where.

602
00:39:26,930 --> 00:39:31,890
Like they need these to be, to make a very nice block explorer.

603
00:39:32,690 --> 00:39:36,370
And I can't find the numbers, but it's a lot bigger.

604
00:39:37,650 --> 00:39:37,810
Yeah.

605
00:39:37,810 --> 00:39:38,370
But what do you think?

606
00:39:40,690 --> 00:39:44,850
And they ship these, these Umbral, these Umbral packages, like whatever.

607
00:39:44,850 --> 00:39:46,690
Oh yeah, I know.

608
00:39:46,770 --> 00:39:49,730
And they, they put, they put the main pool.space in there.

609
00:39:51,010 --> 00:39:57,810
But when you run your main pool.space in your own Umbral hardware, you don't get
these things

610
00:39:57,810 --> 00:39:59,490
because they don't come by default.

611
00:39:59,490 --> 00:40:04,450
So you get a very shitty block explorer that looks like the main pool.space, but you
actually

612
00:40:04,450 --> 00:40:08,370
get, you can't do the same thing that the main pool.space.

613
00:40:09,810 --> 00:40:11,970
They sell you some fake, fake thing.

614
00:40:13,730 --> 00:40:14,210
Oh yeah.

615
00:40:15,010 --> 00:40:19,650
Let's, let's, let's get back onto, there's two topics I would like the, the, the,
the

616
00:40:19,650 --> 00:40:21,730
objections that, that might be had.

617
00:40:21,730 --> 00:40:23,890
One is the Peter Todd thing.

618
00:40:23,890 --> 00:40:29,810
And the second one is, I have, correct me if I'm wrong.

619
00:40:29,810 --> 00:40:38,690
I heard a story about one of the latest evangelists, which is Michael Saylor talking
about,

620
00:40:38,690 --> 00:40:44,690
oh no, just put ZK, Zedcash on Lightning.

621
00:40:45,330 --> 00:40:48,290
Now, I don't know if that's true, Paul.

622
00:40:48,290 --> 00:40:48,770
Is that true?

623
00:40:48,770 --> 00:40:50,530
Did he say that?

624
00:40:51,330 --> 00:40:52,690
Yeah, he said that.

625
00:40:52,690 --> 00:40:53,170
He said that.

626
00:40:54,050 --> 00:40:55,010
So, I don't know.

627
00:40:55,010 --> 00:40:55,890
It was like off the cuff.

628
00:40:55,890 --> 00:40:56,850
It was kind of a...

629
00:40:56,850 --> 00:40:58,530
Oh, was it, was it said in jest?

630
00:40:58,530 --> 00:41:00,290
Was it said in jest or was it said in seriousness?

631
00:41:00,290 --> 00:41:01,970
No, I think he was serious.

632
00:41:01,970 --> 00:41:07,490
But I think it wasn't like a fully published, like a research paper.

633
00:41:07,490 --> 00:41:08,850
It was just like a little remark.

634
00:41:08,850 --> 00:41:11,890
But yeah, like that, we know that that doesn't really make any sense at all, does
it?

635
00:41:11,890 --> 00:41:12,210
Right?

636
00:41:12,210 --> 00:41:13,090
No, not at all.

637
00:41:13,090 --> 00:41:13,570
Not at all.

638
00:41:13,570 --> 00:41:14,930
So it doesn't make any sense.

639
00:41:14,930 --> 00:41:19,890
So, so like, is he, would he be, for example, now Bitcoin's reaching the point
where, you

640
00:41:19,890 --> 00:41:26,370
know, he's looking at it becoming recognized by the US government as an asset.

641
00:41:26,930 --> 00:41:29,730
So there's a significant stake that he might have.

642
00:41:29,730 --> 00:41:34,530
And, and maybe he's worried that, that, for example, the inclusion of Drivechains
into

643
00:41:34,530 --> 00:41:37,410
Bitcoin would turn Bitcoin into a security.

644
00:41:37,410 --> 00:41:38,690
Do you think this is a major concern?

645
00:41:38,690 --> 00:41:40,050
Yeah, I think that is it.

646
00:41:40,050 --> 00:41:43,570
I think that's exactly, I've tried to figuring, I was trying to figure him out.

647
00:41:43,570 --> 00:41:47,650
I was like, is he just like, because he's clearly a smart guy.

648
00:41:48,530 --> 00:41:51,970
He's clearly committed to Bitcoin.

649
00:41:52,530 --> 00:41:54,290
So I was like, what is going on?

650
00:41:55,010 --> 00:42:00,690
And I was like, what it is, is I think it's all just fear of, because he had some
kind

651
00:42:00,690 --> 00:42:07,410
of run in maybe more than one with like the SEC or whatever himself personally.

652
00:42:08,210 --> 00:42:11,650
And I think that that, it's kind of ironic that we have these people, we have like a

653
00:42:11,650 --> 00:42:18,930
Roger Ver, these people who's like, their worldview is very, very colored by one
thing

654
00:42:18,930 --> 00:42:21,490
that, which it should, as it should, perhaps it should be.

655
00:42:21,490 --> 00:42:27,090
But, but, but I think that's his idea is that he needs to sell Bitcoin as like a
finished

656
00:42:27,090 --> 00:42:31,330
project that has no, no changing at all.

657
00:42:31,890 --> 00:42:35,410
And at first I thought it was just, I always thought I would tell the story about
how it's

658
00:42:35,410 --> 00:42:38,370
the block size war taught everyone to resist all change.

659
00:42:38,370 --> 00:42:39,330
We resisted change.

660
00:42:39,330 --> 00:42:43,410
We resisted SegWit2x and then we won the war.

661
00:42:43,410 --> 00:42:44,530
So that was what I kind of thought.

662
00:42:44,530 --> 00:42:48,450
But with, with, with him specifically, I think for most people, that is the story.

663
00:42:48,450 --> 00:42:52,610
But with him specifically, he's comfortably landed into that little story of like,
we

664
00:42:52,610 --> 00:42:53,570
don't need to do anything.

665
00:42:54,450 --> 00:42:55,730
We don't change anything.

666
00:42:55,730 --> 00:42:56,770
Bitcoin is finished.

667
00:42:56,770 --> 00:43:01,490
That's why he wants, he thinks lightning is somehow walled off completely from this
idea

668
00:43:01,490 --> 00:43:05,410
of like efforts of others, how we test or something.

669
00:43:05,410 --> 00:43:13,250
So that is why he, he has to always say that he is, that Bitcoin is already a
finished

670
00:43:13,250 --> 00:43:15,330
project and it needs absolutely nothing.

671
00:43:15,970 --> 00:43:23,810
Because if he were to admit that a small army of developers is merging pull
requests, you

672
00:43:23,810 --> 00:43:28,770
know, all the time to Bitcoin core, it, he has to, he has to tell a story where that

673
00:43:28,770 --> 00:43:31,650
does not affect, Bitcoin could go on without that happening.

674
00:43:32,530 --> 00:43:36,210
Which he can kind of do if he says, well, they just do these little updates that
aren't,

675
00:43:36,210 --> 00:43:37,250
they don't really mean anything.

676
00:43:37,250 --> 00:43:41,730
But if there was a big update, then it would mean that back in 2019 or whatever,
when he

677
00:43:41,730 --> 00:43:45,730
invested in Bitcoin, he was investing in security.

678
00:43:45,730 --> 00:43:46,850
I mean, who cares?

679
00:43:46,850 --> 00:43:50,450
Like, it's like, but I think that people are afraid of this.

680
00:43:50,450 --> 00:43:52,050
People are really, really afraid of this.

681
00:43:52,770 --> 00:43:57,250
Is Michael Saylor like this leader, thought leader of people?

682
00:43:57,250 --> 00:43:58,290
I never seen him.

683
00:43:58,290 --> 00:44:04,290
I think he is a leader of, well, Fiat, of course, he doesn't lead anyone who's,
who's

684
00:44:04,290 --> 00:44:05,410
been around for a long time.

685
00:44:05,410 --> 00:44:09,170
Everyone who, everyone who's been around for a long time knows that when you're new,
your

686
00:44:09,170 --> 00:44:14,050
first two, three years in Bitcoin, you have the worst opinions, most shameful
opinions,

687
00:44:14,050 --> 00:44:15,490
and you should just keep your mouth closed.

688
00:44:15,490 --> 00:44:16,290
Everyone knows that.

689
00:44:16,290 --> 00:44:21,730
But the way Bitcoin works is, of course, since it grows so much, every time it
grows, it

690
00:44:21,730 --> 00:44:24,930
will grow like 10x, it will attract 10 times as many people.

691
00:44:24,930 --> 00:44:30,450
And as a result, 90% of the people at any given point in time are new.

692
00:44:30,450 --> 00:44:32,290
It's like their first year in Bitcoin.

693
00:44:32,290 --> 00:44:37,090
So Saylor has basically like a huge critical mass of those people, I think.

694
00:44:37,090 --> 00:44:42,450
And of course, people like, people like the idea of there being a sophisticated,
like

695
00:44:42,450 --> 00:44:45,970
American businessman, CEO, former rocket scientist from MIT.

696
00:44:47,010 --> 00:44:51,650
They like the idea of him going around and he has good, he's, he's adopted many of

697
00:44:51,650 --> 00:44:53,090
our very good memes.

698
00:44:53,090 --> 00:44:55,330
And he's avoided many of our stupider memes.

699
00:44:55,330 --> 00:44:58,530
I don't recall him shilling like Stock to Flow or anything like that.

700
00:44:58,530 --> 00:45:03,090
That would have been really like, okay, this guy is like complete, like, so he's, he
has

701
00:45:03,090 --> 00:45:03,890
the good memes.

702
00:45:04,610 --> 00:45:06,370
He's mostly avoided the bad memes.

703
00:45:07,410 --> 00:45:09,090
So he's actually pretty good.

704
00:45:09,090 --> 00:45:13,970
He's, it's proof of work for him to have invested so much money is proof that he is

705
00:45:13,970 --> 00:45:14,450
committed.

706
00:45:15,010 --> 00:45:16,370
He does it prominently.

707
00:45:16,370 --> 00:45:18,530
He's pretty articulate, you know, is he not?

708
00:45:19,170 --> 00:45:19,730
Mm hmm.

709
00:45:19,730 --> 00:45:22,690
You can definitely hand it to a lot of those much dumber people.

710
00:45:22,690 --> 00:45:23,250
No offense.

711
00:45:23,250 --> 00:45:28,530
I don't want to really name the names, but we know some people he has done a little

712
00:45:28,530 --> 00:45:32,610
conversation with and he does kind of crush that person and we haven't heard from
them

713
00:45:32,610 --> 00:45:33,010
in a while.

714
00:45:33,010 --> 00:45:34,050
Good, good riddance.

715
00:45:34,770 --> 00:45:41,090
So, so he is great, but I think he, I think he's like constantly thinking about like

716
00:45:41,090 --> 00:45:42,530
getting some kind of huge fine.

717
00:45:43,490 --> 00:45:48,130
And, and then Bitcoin is security and he's something like something like that, I
think.

718
00:45:49,090 --> 00:45:52,770
And I think that's the only thing he really thinks about, or even if he thinks
there's

719
00:45:52,770 --> 00:45:53,970
certain things he's thought about.

720
00:45:54,850 --> 00:45:58,530
Well, the other thing to him is he doesn't want it to become, he wants Bitcoin to
become

721
00:45:58,530 --> 00:46:04,450
kind of like regulated and traceable, which is also a weird breaking point between
him

722
00:46:04,450 --> 00:46:05,970
and a lot of the other people.

723
00:46:05,970 --> 00:46:09,730
The more of the politically activists like punk type people.

724
00:46:10,450 --> 00:46:14,850
They, a lot of people, so like the Zcash sidechain is like a negative for him.

725
00:46:14,850 --> 00:46:16,850
He doesn't want, he doesn't want that to happen.

726
00:46:16,850 --> 00:46:17,350
Yeah.

727
00:46:18,050 --> 00:46:22,050
Because he says, we, well, I don't know exactly what, you know, he would say
exactly.

728
00:46:22,050 --> 00:46:25,810
I would be happy to talk to him on some kind of recorded podcast or space or
whatever.

729
00:46:25,810 --> 00:46:33,010
But I think like he, his idea is that it, he, this, this is an idea that has been in

730
00:46:33,010 --> 00:46:36,450
Bitcoin for a long time, which is that certain things make Bitcoin look bad, make it
look

731
00:46:37,410 --> 00:46:41,410
like it's for crime, make it look like it's whatever.

732
00:46:41,410 --> 00:46:45,890
And we should just kind of not, we should be more sophisticated about what we
emphasize.

733
00:46:46,770 --> 00:46:49,570
And I think that that's, you know, I think he does that.

734
00:46:49,570 --> 00:46:51,570
I think he really doesn't want it to.

735
00:46:51,570 --> 00:46:56,930
And at the same time, he posts tweets or says comments about, you know, like, well,
tax

736
00:46:56,930 --> 00:47:01,650
that, you know, like, and he's, and he's talking about, you know, the Bitcoin trope
of dropping

737
00:47:01,650 --> 00:47:04,610
a Bitcoin in a boating accident type thing.

738
00:47:04,610 --> 00:47:07,570
So, you know, there's, there's, there's that.

739
00:47:09,250 --> 00:47:12,850
Yeah, it's clearly, clearly the right answer is to care for privacy.

740
00:47:12,850 --> 00:47:19,890
And of course, we have to say this as well, which is that the real world is a
Straussian

741
00:47:19,890 --> 00:47:21,730
place that people don't always say what they mean.

742
00:47:22,370 --> 00:47:26,370
And you don't know if you live in a world where people are being like rounded up and

743
00:47:26,370 --> 00:47:29,970
killed or something like, so everyone says, oh, we love it here.

744
00:47:29,970 --> 00:47:34,530
Like everyone always has to say out loud that they don't care for privacy.

745
00:47:34,530 --> 00:47:44,050
It's only a couple autistic people who are neuroatypical enough to say, no, we,
every

746
00:47:44,050 --> 00:47:50,530
single person must push for privacy as hard as we possibly can, because it is a
matter

747
00:47:50,530 --> 00:47:58,130
of life or death, whether or not someone can say what they truthfully believe and
escape

748
00:47:58,130 --> 00:48:01,010
retribution, valid retribution.

749
00:48:01,010 --> 00:48:08,450
And that is, that is the difference between, you know, poverty and, and prosperity.

750
00:48:10,050 --> 00:48:10,690
Shall we?

751
00:48:10,690 --> 00:48:14,930
Now, the next sort of section I'd like to open up is, is flaws and issues with
lightning.

752
00:48:15,890 --> 00:48:16,530
But we could do that.

753
00:48:16,530 --> 00:48:18,130
But should we go to Peter Todd?

754
00:48:18,130 --> 00:48:18,850
Yeah, we can do.

755
00:48:18,850 --> 00:48:19,490
Yeah, yeah, yeah.

756
00:48:19,490 --> 00:48:22,530
But, but let's have a quick bathroom break.

757
00:48:22,530 --> 00:48:23,090
That's okay.

758
00:48:23,090 --> 00:48:24,210
Are you guys good with that?

759
00:48:24,210 --> 00:48:25,010
Yo, you're back.

760
00:48:25,890 --> 00:48:26,370
Okay.

761
00:48:26,370 --> 00:48:27,490
Three, two, one.

762
00:48:27,490 --> 00:48:28,130
Bang.

763
00:48:28,130 --> 00:48:28,770
There we go.

764
00:48:30,130 --> 00:48:30,450
Okay.

765
00:48:30,450 --> 00:48:33,330
So, yeah, before we open up the lightning, we can do the Peter Todd thing.

766
00:48:33,330 --> 00:48:35,010
We've spoken about Michael Saylor.

767
00:48:35,890 --> 00:48:37,010
What's the Peter Todd thing?

768
00:48:37,570 --> 00:48:40,450
Well, let's, let's, let's break apart Peter Todd.

769
00:48:40,450 --> 00:48:45,810
No, no, not necessarily, but we just, let's get to the, the root, the root of what,
what

770
00:48:47,330 --> 00:48:48,450
Peter Todd dislikes.

771
00:48:49,410 --> 00:48:54,450
What is his motivation for not understanding Drivechains?

772
00:48:54,450 --> 00:48:55,330
You know?

773
00:48:55,330 --> 00:48:57,090
Yeah, well, I mean, that's a good question.

774
00:48:57,090 --> 00:49:05,410
I think, like, he, you saw that over the years, like, he will say certain things,
like,

775
00:49:06,370 --> 00:49:10,290
we can't stop this and Drivechains is a nasty attack or something.

776
00:49:10,290 --> 00:49:12,770
Or he'll say, like, we, you're dangerous.

777
00:49:12,770 --> 00:49:14,130
You're broken and dangerous ideas.

778
00:49:14,770 --> 00:49:16,690
You shouldn't get any attention or something.

779
00:49:16,690 --> 00:49:18,930
So he really, really hates the idea a lot.

780
00:49:20,050 --> 00:49:20,290
And.

781
00:49:21,330 --> 00:49:24,370
But is it just because of BMM or minor schemes too?

782
00:49:24,370 --> 00:49:27,650
No, it's definitely not miners can steal.

783
00:49:27,650 --> 00:49:31,970
Peter Todd is much too smart for that because he knows that it's something that only
affects

784
00:49:31,970 --> 00:49:34,290
the miners can steal, only affects the people who deposit.

785
00:49:35,250 --> 00:49:38,370
So anyone, most, you have to be, the miners can steal.

786
00:49:38,370 --> 00:49:40,290
Not a lot of people fall for that.

787
00:49:40,290 --> 00:49:42,210
That's usually, that's something that people fall for.

788
00:49:43,010 --> 00:49:45,570
Like their first day, the first day you hear about it.

789
00:49:46,850 --> 00:49:47,650
Whatever.

790
00:49:47,650 --> 00:49:51,330
Well, I think it's a much stronger, hard to defeat argument.

791
00:49:51,330 --> 00:49:52,770
I struggle with it myself.

792
00:49:53,490 --> 00:49:54,370
But why?

793
00:49:55,410 --> 00:49:57,890
Maybe I'm too stupid, but.

794
00:49:57,890 --> 00:49:59,650
You're not stupid, I tell you that.

795
00:49:59,650 --> 00:50:00,610
You're not stupid.

796
00:50:00,610 --> 00:50:01,970
But why do you struggle with it?

797
00:50:02,373 --> 00:50:29,373
Well, I've been trying to convince myself that miners won't steal, but it's not up
to me, basically. It's up to like how useful the sidechain is. That's the idea. It's
like, they're like competing restaurants. So it's like, maybe you live in a world
where it's really hard to run a restaurant and most restaurants actually fail. That
would be like most sidechains get stolen from. But that's not really, right now,
none exist. It's like, you know, it's like, I don't know.

798
00:50:29,373 --> 00:50:51,373
There's none exist at all. There's none. There's no restaurants. We all have to eat
the, we have to eat the prison food every day. We have no choice. And someone says,
listen, Roger Veer says, I'll make my own restaurant to cook food for myself. And
I'll also sell it to other people. And then they say, no, you're not allowed to do
that.

799
00:50:52,373 --> 00:51:11,373
So like, people are trapped here, we have to be trapped on the Bitcoin core chain.
So it's, I'm not saying that it will definitely work. But you know, Fiat, did you
see the NPV calculations for the fees? If the fees are like 1.4, or something,
Bitcoin per block?

800
00:51:11,373 --> 00:51:12,373
I didn't see that.

801
00:51:12,373 --> 00:51:41,373
Well, that is, that is enough. It's like five to $20 billion NPV, it depends on
like, very aggressive interest rates and stuff. So, so it's, it's debatable whether
or not there's like collective action problems or other things, but, but the fees is
worth a lot. And then the fact that if you steal from the coin, it transitions from
being a multi network, multi blockchain coin to just being back to only Bitcoin core
coin, which you would think,

802
00:51:41,373 --> 00:51:48,373
would make the coin worth less. It would end the feature.

803
00:51:48,373 --> 00:51:49,373
Yeah, yeah.

804
00:51:49,373 --> 00:52:10,373
And then of course, we have all this real evidence that like, no one really, people
really do not, there's been, it's been very easy, for example, to attack a Bitcoin
SV, very easy to attack other LeFork coins, very easy to attack, like, you could
attack the Lightning Network by blocking the justice transaction.

805
00:52:10,373 --> 00:52:12,373
But no one ever really does it.

806
00:52:12,373 --> 00:52:25,373
It's easy, like you can just, you can, you can like, open a channel, spend the
entire channel, and then rewind the channel opening, like, and get back your money.

807
00:52:25,373 --> 00:52:26,373
You could.

808
00:52:26,373 --> 00:52:27,373
Yeah.

809
00:52:27,373 --> 00:52:28,373
So there's lots of things.

810
00:52:28,373 --> 00:52:37,373
You could do that, like with 75% of mining hash power over six months, you could
just destroy the entire network.

811
00:52:38,373 --> 00:52:41,373
Because that's, again, people don't really realize the scale of what it takes.

812
00:52:41,373 --> 00:52:44,373
It's like 75% hash power over six months.

813
00:52:44,373 --> 00:52:49,373
It's like, you have that, and you, that's, that's on the table.

814
00:52:49,373 --> 00:52:51,373
And, you know, so it's like, what's actually happening?

815
00:52:51,373 --> 00:52:52,373
I think.

816
00:52:52,373 --> 00:52:53,373
What can you do with that?

817
00:52:53,373 --> 00:52:57,373
Yeah, like a lot, like you, like an unbelievable amount.

818
00:52:57,373 --> 00:53:02,373
And you don't care about things like the price of the market price of Bitcoin or the
stream of fee revenue.

819
00:53:02,373 --> 00:53:04,373
Like, well, I don't know.

820
00:53:04,373 --> 00:53:06,373
It's kind of like assuming everything away.

821
00:53:06,373 --> 00:53:12,373
And instead, what people, what people say is they worry about so many people joining
this network.

822
00:53:12,373 --> 00:53:18,373
And instead, they want to push these people onto, like, literally, like, custodial
lightning or, like, Fetament or something.

823
00:53:18,373 --> 00:53:22,373
Whereas Fetament is going to be robbed 3 million times.

824
00:53:22,373 --> 00:53:23,373
But that's okay.

825
00:53:23,373 --> 00:53:25,373
You heard it here first, people.

826
00:53:25,373 --> 00:53:30,373
Yeah, they talk about it as if it was a protocol or something, some new technology.

827
00:53:30,373 --> 00:53:33,373
It's like, you're literally encouraging.

828
00:53:33,373 --> 00:53:43,373
There's going to be, like, a literal, like, just how people are encouraged by ICOs
to just, like, specialize and become, like, you know, we had, like, William Mugayar,
business blockchain.

829
00:53:43,373 --> 00:53:54,373
And we had all these weird people, this whole food chain of, like, weirdos and,
like, people running conferences and stuff, doing the ICOs, making the white papers.

830
00:53:54,373 --> 00:53:56,373
Remember they had, like, ICO rank?

831
00:53:56,373 --> 00:53:57,373
All that crap?

832
00:53:57,373 --> 00:54:04,373
Assuming that Fetament is successful, there's going to be all this stuff for that,
where there's going to be Federank.

833
00:54:04,373 --> 00:54:10,373
There's going to be people who are professional custodians, and then they will just
steal the money.

834
00:54:10,373 --> 00:54:12,373
And this will happen many times.

835
00:54:12,373 --> 00:54:16,373
But I don't think this is the Peter Todd line.

836
00:54:16,373 --> 00:54:19,373
This is more an addressing to fiat jobs.

837
00:54:20,373 --> 00:54:25,373
The Peter Todd line, to me, is much more obvious to review.

838
00:54:25,373 --> 00:54:30,373
Like, you just BMM, and everything's perfect.

839
00:54:30,373 --> 00:54:33,373
Like, you don't affect Bitcoin at all.

840
00:54:33,373 --> 00:54:34,373
I know why.

841
00:54:34,373 --> 00:54:35,373
That's what I thought, too.

842
00:54:35,373 --> 00:54:40,373
But what Peter Todd is saying is something like, some miners must...

843
00:54:40,373 --> 00:54:47,373
He's saying, and I thought I refuted it long ago, but he's saying something like,
some miners...

844
00:54:48,373 --> 00:54:49,373
You have to look at it.

845
00:54:49,373 --> 00:54:52,373
In order to understand Peter Todd's thing, you have to look at it from his point of
view, which is...

846
00:54:52,373 --> 00:54:54,373
Is he a communist?

847
00:54:54,373 --> 00:54:56,373
Well, with respect to...

848
00:54:56,373 --> 00:55:00,373
He's not pro-miner competition, apparently, or something.

849
00:55:00,373 --> 00:55:07,373
But we'll unpack it a little bit, where it's like, Peter remembers running a node,
and he...

850
00:55:07,373 --> 00:55:11,373
Back in the day, there was no Blind Merged Mining, because they hadn't invented it
yet.

851
00:55:11,373 --> 00:55:21,373
But he was like, can I run a Namecoin node, which is a hassle, in order to get a
little bit of money, like $5?

852
00:55:25,373 --> 00:55:28,373
$5 a block, or something tiny.

853
00:55:28,373 --> 00:55:30,373
And he said, well, if I'm a big pool, then it's easier for me.

854
00:55:30,373 --> 00:55:31,373
I just put up this...

855
00:55:31,373 --> 00:55:33,373
I set up this mining.

856
00:55:33,373 --> 00:55:35,373
It's like, everything's piled up.

857
00:55:35,373 --> 00:55:37,373
Is that a new computer?

858
00:55:37,373 --> 00:55:38,373
Yeah.

859
00:55:38,373 --> 00:55:39,373
Yeah.

860
00:55:39,373 --> 00:55:42,373
What's really crazy about this is how bad it is.

861
00:55:42,373 --> 00:55:51,373
Because Peter Todd, he divided when he said the cost splits 100 ways, or 1,000 ways,
because the pool has 1,000 people.

862
00:55:51,373 --> 00:55:55,373
But he forgot to divide the benefit by 1,000 ways, also.

863
00:55:55,373 --> 00:55:57,373
So it's exactly proportional.

864
00:55:57,373 --> 00:55:59,373
He thinks it's disproportional, but it's just...

865
00:55:59,373 --> 00:56:06,373
These are just weird mistakes that people made long ago, and for whatever reason,
they have just never been corrected, because...

866
00:56:07,373 --> 00:56:10,373
So he thinks something like, I can't...

867
00:56:10,373 --> 00:56:18,373
It's easier for a pool to merge mines, so this is yet another advantage the big guys
have over me, and I'm going to be pushed out.

868
00:56:18,373 --> 00:56:21,373
And again, this is a misstatement of the whole thing.

869
00:56:21,373 --> 00:56:32,373
This is the 101 people can't each have 1% idea, which is that he's getting pushed
out, because the network is growing and growing and growing, and there's only 100
percentage points available for everyone.

870
00:56:32,373 --> 00:56:33,373
That's what's pushing people out.

871
00:56:33,373 --> 00:56:35,373
Every single person who mines is feeling this.

872
00:56:35,373 --> 00:56:38,373
They feel like, oh, I'm getting smaller and smaller.

873
00:56:38,373 --> 00:56:41,373
Well, that's because Bitcoin has become more successful.

874
00:56:41,373 --> 00:56:44,373
So it's like, that's what you want.

875
00:56:44,373 --> 00:56:48,373
This is exactly what is happening, is what everyone always wanted.

876
00:56:48,373 --> 00:56:54,373
And the pools, people rightly say, well, what if these pools misbehave?

877
00:56:54,373 --> 00:57:00,373
The correct frame, there's been an incorrect frame draped over everything.

878
00:57:01,373 --> 00:57:04,373
And it's all about, we have to care about what blah, blah, blah, people do.

879
00:57:04,373 --> 00:57:15,373
The decentralization frame is, the cost of running a full node is your cost of
detecting an error on the network and replying to the error.

880
00:57:15,373 --> 00:57:17,373
So it's all about error correction.

881
00:57:17,373 --> 00:57:22,373
Now, similarly, we should want to detect errors in pools.

882
00:57:22,373 --> 00:57:24,373
Namely, the miners themselves should want to do that.

883
00:57:24,373 --> 00:57:28,373
They should want to run, they should connect their hash rate, point their hash rate
at a pool.

884
00:57:28,373 --> 00:57:35,373
And they should have other software that's like PoolWatch or whatever, that they
kind of do have because they do the pool hopping.

885
00:57:35,373 --> 00:57:45,373
And they also have stuff about like block health, I believe is the official term,
where they say, this block could have collected three Bitcoin in fees, but it only
collected 2.1.

886
00:57:45,373 --> 00:57:50,373
And then they divide it and they say, well, this is only a whatever, 70% health
block or something.

887
00:57:50,373 --> 00:57:52,373
So that's what you want.

888
00:57:52,373 --> 00:57:55,373
You want error correction to be cheap always.

889
00:57:55,373 --> 00:57:57,373
That is what everyone wants.

890
00:57:58,373 --> 00:58:00,373
For L1.

891
00:58:00,373 --> 00:58:07,373
Like for L2, if you want to opt into something with worse error correction, but it
has other benefits, then that's your affair.

892
00:58:07,373 --> 00:58:08,373
That's the same thing we do with everything.

893
00:58:08,373 --> 00:58:10,373
That's a good thing.

894
00:58:10,373 --> 00:58:18,373
So, but the idea is we don't want it to make, what people mean when they say miner
centralization.

895
00:58:18,373 --> 00:58:24,373
I'm the only one, I think, on planet Earth who has figured out what the definition
is of mining centralization.

896
00:58:25,373 --> 00:58:30,373
It's the cost of detecting an error made by the mining pools and replying to it.

897
00:58:30,373 --> 00:58:33,373
That is the only definition that makes any sense.

898
00:58:33,373 --> 00:58:38,373
Some people say, so for example, Alex B, he thinks he's got people in like a gotcha
mode.

899
00:58:38,373 --> 00:58:42,373
This is how, you know, no offense, this is how unremarkable Alex B is.

900
00:58:42,373 --> 00:58:48,373
That he thinks that if you, the number of different pools is the metric.

901
00:58:48,373 --> 00:58:51,373
So if there's only one pool, then that's a bad thing.

902
00:58:52,373 --> 00:58:55,373
But that's not the case because it doesn't really work like that.

903
00:58:55,373 --> 00:58:56,373
It's like a restaurant.

904
00:58:56,373 --> 00:58:58,373
It's like, what if there's only one restaurant?

905
00:58:58,373 --> 00:59:01,373
Well, imagine that this is the greatest restaurant in the world.

906
00:59:01,373 --> 00:59:06,373
And it serves the most amazing food for one millionth of a penny.

907
00:59:06,373 --> 00:59:11,373
And the food comes out quickly and it's the best service in the world.

908
00:59:11,373 --> 00:59:13,373
This is the optimal restaurant.

909
00:59:13,373 --> 00:59:17,373
And all 100 percentage points go to this place.

910
00:59:18,373 --> 00:59:23,373
And the pool, the mining pool never censors, which is the analogy.

911
00:59:23,373 --> 00:59:26,373
It never censors, it never does anything wrong.

912
00:59:26,373 --> 00:59:33,373
If the restaurant is perfect already, then actually you don't need a second
restaurant.

913
00:59:33,373 --> 00:59:35,373
It's already perfect by definition.

914
00:59:35,373 --> 00:59:39,373
And the, what makes it perfect is the turnover, of course.

915
00:59:39,373 --> 00:59:44,373
But it's like the, if you have a pool, a situation where everything's in one pool.

916
00:59:44,373 --> 00:59:50,373
Imagine that that is the only pool that does the right thing.

917
00:59:50,373 --> 00:59:58,373
Every other pool is censoring transactions or maybe censoring all the transactions
or doing reorgs or something.

918
00:59:58,373 --> 01:00:02,373
All the other pools are bad.

919
01:00:02,373 --> 01:00:05,373
Well, then, but there's one that's perfect.

920
01:00:05,373 --> 01:00:07,373
Their behavior is perfect.

921
01:00:07,373 --> 01:00:10,373
They never do anything bad.

922
01:00:10,373 --> 01:00:16,373
Well, then that's actually a situation where you want all the hash rate pointed at
that one pool.

923
01:00:16,373 --> 01:00:18,373
Because everything else is just a mistake.

924
01:00:18,373 --> 01:00:20,373
So it's all about errors.

925
01:00:20,373 --> 01:00:21,373
It's all about errors.

926
01:00:21,373 --> 01:00:24,373
Which pools are making the errors?

927
01:00:24,373 --> 01:00:29,373
And if there's only, but, you know, of course, in practice, this is implausible to
have.

928
01:00:29,373 --> 01:00:31,373
It's very easy to make more pools.

929
01:00:31,373 --> 01:00:37,373
The variance reduction thing actually, you know, it hits like an optimal point.

930
01:00:37,373 --> 01:00:44,373
The pools, the idea that it would be a bad thing, that it would be a good thing.

931
01:00:44,373 --> 01:00:50,373
So if the metric is number of pools, then all these people, Peter Todd, Alex B.,
they're also still wrong.

932
01:00:50,373 --> 01:00:58,373
Because the number of pools is not something that will go down because of merged
mining.

933
01:00:58,373 --> 01:00:59,373
It's not a fact.

934
01:00:59,373 --> 01:01:06,373
So if we had like 10, if it was like N equals 10 mining pools that each have like
whatever, 10%, just make it up.

935
01:01:07,373 --> 01:01:15,373
The fact that we weren't merged mining before, but now we are, that number is not
going to change from 10 to 9 because of that.

936
01:01:15,373 --> 01:01:22,373
It's ridiculous because once it reaches the scale of 1 10th or 1 15th or something.

937
01:01:22,373 --> 01:01:31,373
Again, the cost of running the new merged mine software will already be like 100
millionth of whatever the real cost is.

938
01:01:31,373 --> 01:01:34,373
These arguments are all for merged mining, non-blind merged mining.

939
01:01:34,373 --> 01:01:35,373
Exactly.

940
01:01:35,373 --> 01:01:36,373
There's no argument to be had.

941
01:01:36,373 --> 01:01:38,373
Blind merged mining solves it completely.

942
01:01:38,373 --> 01:01:41,373
But they don't even understand blind merged mining.

943
01:01:41,373 --> 01:01:53,373
But the other thing I want to mention is the cost is actually negative because they
only run the merged mining software if the revenues from it exceed the costs.

944
01:01:53,373 --> 01:01:58,373
So it's just a bunch of weird mistakes like Peter Todd dividing by cost, but he
forgot to divide the revenues.

945
01:01:59,373 --> 01:02:03,373
Or people just thinking they forget that on layer one, everything's mandatory.

946
01:02:03,373 --> 01:02:06,373
But on L2 with merged mining, you can just shut it off.

947
01:02:06,373 --> 01:02:07,373
It's a la carte.

948
01:02:07,373 --> 01:02:08,373
You can turn it on and off whenever you like.

949
01:02:08,373 --> 01:02:15,373
So then they have this weird argument that they think is sophisticated that goes,
well, it's because it's profitable that it costs so much.

950
01:02:15,373 --> 01:02:19,373
Because they say it's so profitable that people start doing it.

951
01:02:19,373 --> 01:02:21,373
Then the network difficulty goes up.

952
01:02:21,373 --> 01:02:25,373
And now anyone who's not doing it is losing money.

953
01:02:26,373 --> 01:02:30,373
And, again, that goes down the line of just being an argument against difficulty
adjustments.

954
01:02:30,373 --> 01:02:32,373
That's the communist line.

955
01:02:32,373 --> 01:02:33,373
That's the communist line.

956
01:02:33,373 --> 01:02:34,373
Yes.

957
01:02:34,373 --> 01:02:35,373
Exactly.

958
01:02:35,373 --> 01:02:36,373
Yes.

959
01:02:36,373 --> 01:02:37,373
It is.

960
01:02:37,373 --> 01:02:39,373
But I don't think these people are communists.

961
01:02:39,373 --> 01:02:43,373
I just think for one reason or another, they just don't believe.

962
01:02:43,373 --> 01:02:51,373
They just don't really think that this idea could be true because it's so good.

963
01:02:52,373 --> 01:02:53,373
That's what I think it is.

964
01:02:53,373 --> 01:03:02,373
One nice argument that I've been hearing lately is that, oh, do you have other use
cases for the hashrate escrow?

965
01:03:02,373 --> 01:03:04,373
One use case is not enough.

966
01:03:04,373 --> 01:03:07,373
Making all possible sidechains in the world is not enough.

967
01:03:07,373 --> 01:03:08,373
It's just one use case.

968
01:03:08,373 --> 01:03:09,373
You need at least one more.

969
01:03:09,373 --> 01:03:10,373
Yeah.

970
01:03:10,373 --> 01:03:15,373
It's kind of like I publish the idea and I say, listen, this idea solves everyone's
problems.

971
01:03:15,373 --> 01:03:17,373
And I say, well, you have to do the code.

972
01:03:17,373 --> 01:03:19,373
And they're like, okay, I do the code.

973
01:03:19,373 --> 01:03:23,373
And it's like you have to do the code and you have to code the sidechain also.

974
01:03:23,373 --> 01:03:24,373
And you have to copy.

975
01:03:24,373 --> 01:03:27,373
It's like you have to do an endless list of tasks.

976
01:03:27,373 --> 01:03:35,373
By the time ‑‑ there is some truth to this, though, because the more intelligent
someone is, the more easier it is for them to foresee why it's a good idea.

977
01:03:35,373 --> 01:03:42,373
And so you're moving left on the bell curve as you pick up more people, the people
who need it spelled out for them.

978
01:03:43,373 --> 01:03:58,373
There will literally be people out there who will probably say something like, I
won't believe that Drivechain is a good idea until after everything is coded and it
is activated on Bitcoin and lots of people have been using it for like five or six
years.

979
01:03:58,373 --> 01:04:04,373
And then they'll believe, you know, then they'll decide that it was worth trying.

980
01:04:04,373 --> 01:04:05,373
Before activating.

981
01:04:05,373 --> 01:04:06,373
Yeah.

982
01:04:06,373 --> 01:04:09,373
So plenty of people will say I won't believe it's a good idea until after.

983
01:04:09,373 --> 01:04:10,373
Going parabolic, right?

984
01:04:10,373 --> 01:04:12,373
That sort of guy.

985
01:04:12,373 --> 01:04:14,373
There was this guy, Sam Walters, I think.

986
01:04:14,373 --> 01:04:22,373
He said, oh, you have to first make the Drivechain and see if people want that
before you can activate it.

987
01:04:22,373 --> 01:04:25,373
Yeah, I know.

988
01:04:25,373 --> 01:04:27,373
That's what we're up against.

989
01:04:27,373 --> 01:04:28,373
No offense, Sam.

990
01:04:28,373 --> 01:04:33,373
I mean, I appreciate everyone's attention that they gave attention to my project.

991
01:04:34,373 --> 01:04:47,373
My view is that there's just a vague awareness that there I put this in my pinned
tweet that there's a vague awareness that people like Peter Todd, maybe even Greg
Maxwell, are against it on the minor centralization mistake, which is a mistake.

992
01:04:47,373 --> 01:04:51,373
Which again, those guys are very, very smart, but smart doesn't mean infallible.

993
01:04:51,373 --> 01:04:53,373
And they are.

994
01:04:53,373 --> 01:04:57,373
The MEV thing was very surprising to me because I thought they had an argument.

995
01:04:58,373 --> 01:05:08,373
I think that was the case of a narcissist who's writing the coattails of people like
Peter Todd and another narcissist by the name of Brian Trolls.

996
01:05:08,373 --> 01:05:15,373
I mean, these guys, they're so intellectually, it's really, it's pathetic.

997
01:05:15,373 --> 01:05:23,373
The entire argument of Shinobi is that he just offends you and call you names.

998
01:05:23,373 --> 01:05:26,373
He's got the name Troll in his fucking name, man.

999
01:05:27,373 --> 01:05:30,373
This guy is just a narcissist through and through.

1000
01:05:30,373 --> 01:05:33,373
And, well, anyway.

1001
01:05:34,373 --> 01:05:37,373
But I thought they had something about MEV.

1002
01:05:37,373 --> 01:05:38,373
Yeah, I know.

1003
01:05:38,373 --> 01:05:44,373
So what I thought was, it's yet another case of them mixing up L1 and L2.

1004
01:05:44,373 --> 01:05:46,373
So I'll just go in and I'll straighten this out.

1005
01:05:46,373 --> 01:05:50,373
I'll say, listen, there is MEV on the ETH sidechain, but it's over there.

1006
01:05:50,373 --> 01:05:52,373
No one on L1 sees it.

1007
01:05:52,373 --> 01:05:54,373
So that's what, of course, I thought it was.

1008
01:05:54,373 --> 01:05:55,373
Little did we know.

1009
01:05:55,373 --> 01:05:57,373
There was just nothing happening.

1010
01:06:00,373 --> 01:06:04,373
Well, I still don't know what was the argument and what's the current argument.

1011
01:06:04,373 --> 01:06:06,373
They will never spell it out.

1012
01:06:06,373 --> 01:06:08,373
It's just a narcissist looking for attention.

1013
01:06:08,373 --> 01:06:09,373
That's it.

1014
01:06:09,373 --> 01:06:10,373
That's it.

1015
01:06:10,373 --> 01:06:11,373
That's it.

1016
01:06:11,373 --> 01:06:21,373
We said with the Lockseye's War, we set up the culture so that people can rise on
the totem pole if they are very toxic, basically.

1017
01:06:21,373 --> 01:06:22,373
Yes.

1018
01:06:22,373 --> 01:06:25,373
So this has trained people to just do this all the time.

1019
01:06:25,373 --> 01:06:30,373
They just say, well, I will be the one who cares about Bitcoin safety the most.

1020
01:06:30,373 --> 01:06:33,373
So they're like Bitcoin safety officer Karen type people.

1021
01:06:33,373 --> 01:06:37,373
And they just want to just say, I'm the one who cares about Bitcoin the most.

1022
01:06:37,373 --> 01:06:47,373
And the fact that I am so unreasonable is just a manifestation of how it's really
just like a virtue signaling.

1023
01:06:47,373 --> 01:06:48,373
It is.

1024
01:06:48,373 --> 01:06:49,373
Exactly.

1025
01:06:49,373 --> 01:06:50,373
That's all it is.

1026
01:06:50,373 --> 01:06:51,373
It's a virtue signaling.

1027
01:06:51,373 --> 01:06:52,373
But it's false.

1028
01:06:52,373 --> 01:06:53,373
It's false compassion.

1029
01:06:53,373 --> 01:06:55,373
It's false compassion for your security.

1030
01:06:55,373 --> 01:06:57,373
Oh, please don't do that.

1031
01:06:57,373 --> 01:06:59,373
Don't sell T-shirts.

1032
01:06:59,373 --> 01:07:04,373
The crucial aspect of it is that they are benefiting from it.

1033
01:07:04,373 --> 01:07:07,373
They want to be they want to like start like some kind of.

1034
01:07:07,373 --> 01:07:08,373
Yes.

1035
01:07:08,373 --> 01:07:10,373
You know, they get they get more status.

1036
01:07:10,373 --> 01:07:11,373
They get the invitations.

1037
01:07:11,373 --> 01:07:12,373
They get stuff that they get.

1038
01:07:12,373 --> 01:07:16,373
They can like start a group or they can maybe start a company.

1039
01:07:16,373 --> 01:07:17,373
So they get stuff out of it.

1040
01:07:17,373 --> 01:07:18,373
So it's like they are.

1041
01:07:18,373 --> 01:07:19,373
They are a parasite.

1042
01:07:20,373 --> 01:07:22,373
And my project is just collateral damage.

1043
01:07:22,373 --> 01:07:23,373
It has nothing.

1044
01:07:23,373 --> 01:07:24,373
They don't even know.

1045
01:07:24,373 --> 01:07:25,373
They don't.

1046
01:07:25,373 --> 01:07:26,373
It's obvious.

1047
01:07:26,373 --> 01:07:27,373
They don't even know anything about the project.

1048
01:07:27,373 --> 01:07:28,373
It's just.

1049
01:07:28,373 --> 01:07:29,373
It's correct.

1050
01:07:29,373 --> 01:07:30,373
An opportune stage.

1051
01:07:30,373 --> 01:07:31,373
A platform for them to.

1052
01:07:31,373 --> 01:07:32,373
Yeah.

1053
01:07:32,373 --> 01:07:33,373
It's like a venue for them to just.

1054
01:07:33,373 --> 01:07:34,373
Yes.

1055
01:07:34,373 --> 01:07:35,373
Hey, whatever.

1056
01:07:35,373 --> 01:07:36,373
So.

1057
01:07:36,373 --> 01:07:37,373
Hate.

1058
01:07:37,373 --> 01:07:38,373
Hate.

1059
01:07:38,373 --> 01:07:39,373
Farm.

1060
01:07:39,373 --> 01:07:40,373
Attention.

1061
01:07:40,373 --> 01:07:41,373
Kind of style.

1062
01:07:41,373 --> 01:07:42,373
That's the Jason Lowery method.

1063
01:07:42,373 --> 01:07:43,373
Right.

1064
01:07:43,373 --> 01:07:44,373
Yeah.

1065
01:07:45,373 --> 01:07:46,373
So.

1066
01:07:46,373 --> 01:07:47,373
OK.

1067
01:07:47,373 --> 01:07:48,373
We've got.

1068
01:07:48,373 --> 01:07:54,373
For example, the consequences of going with Peter Todd is that we no longer do the
end

1069
01:07:54,373 --> 01:07:55,373
to end principle.

1070
01:07:55,373 --> 01:07:57,373
So any feature that comes into Bitcoin.

1071
01:07:57,373 --> 01:08:00,373
Well, we've got now a new a new addressing scheme.

1072
01:08:00,373 --> 01:08:02,373
We've got a new hashing scheme.

1073
01:08:02,373 --> 01:08:03,373
And and here I am.

1074
01:08:03,373 --> 01:08:07,373
I'm trying to develop hardware while it's the gods, metal plates and whatnot.

1075
01:08:07,373 --> 01:08:10,373
And I'm like, which fucking address do I support?

1076
01:08:10,373 --> 01:08:13,373
You know, like.

1077
01:08:13,373 --> 01:08:14,373
Yeah.

1078
01:08:14,373 --> 01:08:15,373
What do you have?

1079
01:08:15,373 --> 01:08:16,373
Yeah.

1080
01:08:16,373 --> 01:08:17,373
OK.

1081
01:08:17,373 --> 01:08:18,373
So I don't really have a point about that.

1082
01:08:18,373 --> 01:08:19,373
But but also.

1083
01:08:19,373 --> 01:08:20,373
Well, I mean.

1084
01:08:20,373 --> 01:08:21,373
There's so many.

1085
01:08:21,373 --> 01:08:28,373
The address format is, I think, a kind of a canary in the coal mine on the
development.

1086
01:08:28,373 --> 01:08:30,373
I think honestly, I think it's this.

1087
01:08:30,373 --> 01:08:33,373
And the descriptor wallets are like.

1088
01:08:33,373 --> 01:08:34,373
32 M.

1089
01:08:34,373 --> 01:08:35,373
It's 32 M.

1090
01:08:35,373 --> 01:08:37,373
Like, why would they do that?

1091
01:08:37,373 --> 01:08:39,373
Why would they name it like that with an M?

1092
01:08:39,373 --> 01:08:40,373
Why would they do that?

1093
01:08:40,373 --> 01:08:41,373
Well, couldn't they just.

1094
01:08:41,373 --> 01:08:42,373
I don't know.

1095
01:08:42,373 --> 01:08:43,373
I don't know.

1096
01:08:43,373 --> 01:08:44,373
I think.

1097
01:08:44,373 --> 01:08:45,373
Couldn't they just say, like.

1098
01:08:45,373 --> 01:08:48,373
I couldn't do the version numbers before.

1099
01:08:48,373 --> 01:08:49,373
Well, that's.

1100
01:08:49,373 --> 01:08:52,373
I've complained about this before, where it's like they're unreadable.

1101
01:08:52,373 --> 01:08:56,373
Also, it's like they start with they all start with the same, like five characters.

1102
01:08:56,373 --> 01:09:01,373
The version number is like the Q or something like it's like designed by Satan or
something.

1103
01:09:01,373 --> 01:09:05,373
I don't you know, you can't read them.

1104
01:09:05,373 --> 01:09:10,373
Whereas before we had thoughts of the one thought to the three.

1105
01:09:10,373 --> 01:09:11,373
It was perfect.

1106
01:09:11,373 --> 01:09:15,373
Talk to the five is wallet import format for the private.

1107
01:09:15,373 --> 01:09:17,373
I kind of like the best 32.

1108
01:09:17,373 --> 01:09:24,373
But when they did the best 32 second second birth, I don't understand why they did
that.

1109
01:09:24,373 --> 01:09:26,373
Like they made a mistake and they made a mistake.

1110
01:09:26,373 --> 01:09:27,373
They corrected the mistake.

1111
01:09:27,373 --> 01:09:31,373
And so now we have to live with the mistake and live with the old mistake.

1112
01:09:31,373 --> 01:09:34,373
You know, addresses are not in the addresses are not in the block chain.

1113
01:09:34,373 --> 01:09:37,373
It's just the hash 160 or whatever is in there is not.

1114
01:09:37,373 --> 01:09:40,373
So I don't.

1115
01:09:40,373 --> 01:09:41,373
That's 32 M. Yeah.

1116
01:09:41,373 --> 01:09:47,373
I mean, like when you're trying to research that type of thing, like I don't even
know how I even found it.

1117
01:09:47,373 --> 01:09:55,373
I was just luckily found it on Reddit that you have to type in batch 32 M to get the
new thing that will work.

1118
01:09:55,373 --> 01:10:03,373
Did you because I was trying to make a descriptor wallet and again, descriptor
wallets are like people think like you should have recorded that.

1119
01:10:04,373 --> 01:10:18,373
I know the more we have an enormous disparity between like what people will say on
Twitter and what they actually do,

1120
01:10:18,373 --> 01:10:24,373
which is none of these people, you know, people who say they like descriptor
wallets.

1121
01:10:24,373 --> 01:10:26,373
They have never made a descriptor wallet.

1122
01:10:26,373 --> 01:10:29,373
So and then people did this with lightning for many years.

1123
01:10:30,373 --> 01:10:32,373
None of those people were like lightning, lightning, lightning.

1124
01:10:32,373 --> 01:10:34,373
None of them had ever run lightning.

1125
01:10:34,373 --> 01:10:35,373
No one do people would say.

1126
01:10:35,373 --> 01:10:42,373
Remember, we had many, many people who we had lots of people who are pro lightning.

1127
01:10:42,373 --> 01:10:44,373
You guys probably know the names.

1128
01:10:44,373 --> 01:10:47,373
And then like on Twitter, I'd like to be on a video.

1129
01:10:47,373 --> 01:10:56,373
And they're like, oh, why do I need to run like a lightning node that you need to
run a layer one full node in order to run lightning node in the first place?

1130
01:10:56,373 --> 01:10:58,373
And like people would retweet.

1131
01:10:58,373 --> 01:11:02,373
I remember people would do videos about their experience with lightning.

1132
01:11:02,373 --> 01:11:04,373
People would be like retweeting them.

1133
01:11:04,373 --> 01:11:10,373
And then someone would point out this person says that they had a really hard time
with lightning and they lost all their money.

1134
01:11:10,373 --> 01:11:13,373
And then they're like, oh, I just retweeted it to be supportive of lightning.

1135
01:11:13,373 --> 01:11:15,373
And it's like people don't.

1136
01:11:15,373 --> 01:11:18,373
So no one, you know, everyone is that everyone is a phony.

1137
01:11:18,373 --> 01:11:19,373
Everyone is a bullshitter.

1138
01:11:19,373 --> 01:11:20,373
Basically.

1139
01:11:20,373 --> 01:11:29,373
Ninety nine percent of the tweets are are from people who just they it's not even
false.

1140
01:11:29,373 --> 01:11:32,373
They have no idea. It's just a performance.

1141
01:11:32,373 --> 01:11:34,373
Yeah. They just think.

1142
01:11:34,373 --> 01:11:36,373
Being good, whatever.

1143
01:11:36,373 --> 01:11:38,373
Yeah.

1144
01:11:38,373 --> 01:11:43,373
So you implement today a transactional layer, I believe.

1145
01:11:43,373 --> 01:11:44,373
This crossed my mind.

1146
01:11:44,373 --> 01:11:47,373
And it doesn't have it basically is trust base.

1147
01:11:48,373 --> 01:11:50,373
And I thought that was a very interesting idea.

1148
01:11:50,373 --> 01:11:51,373
Very interesting concept.

1149
01:11:51,373 --> 01:11:53,373
Could you could you expand a little bit about that?

1150
01:11:53,373 --> 01:11:56,373
I'm interested to hear about that.

1151
01:11:56,373 --> 01:11:59,373
Oh, that was like the host exchange thing.

1152
01:11:59,373 --> 01:12:05,373
It was supposed to be like interface with lightning seamlessly.

1153
01:12:05,373 --> 01:12:14,373
But you could just run a wallet and it would be much better than a normal custodial
wallet because a normal custodial wallet has all your transactional details.

1154
01:12:14,373 --> 01:12:23,373
And this one, they could have one wallet and you could have multiple custodial
custodial accounts with multiple providers.

1155
01:12:23,373 --> 01:12:26,373
And they wouldn't know very much about you.

1156
01:12:26,373 --> 01:12:29,373
And it would be interoperable, etc.

1157
01:12:29,373 --> 01:12:34,373
And I think I think the lighting lighting is very broken.

1158
01:12:34,373 --> 01:12:37,373
So this was one of the ideas to fix it.

1159
01:12:37,373 --> 01:12:46,373
You would just do trust based, but you wouldn't put a lot of money in there and you
would just divide your trust between multiple people.

1160
01:12:46,373 --> 01:12:51,373
And yeah, mostly lightning today is also very trust based.

1161
01:12:51,373 --> 01:13:00,373
So you you you you need your channel peers to not fuck with you and not try to turn
your life into hell for it to work.

1162
01:13:00,373 --> 01:13:05,373
So it's not a big deal to trust them with a little bit of money.

1163
01:13:05,373 --> 01:13:07,373
Yeah, but I did that.

1164
01:13:07,373 --> 01:13:17,373
But it was just like you need you needed a bridge like you need a server that would
have no more lighting channels and also open a spot for it.

1165
01:13:17,373 --> 01:13:19,373
Yeah.

1166
01:13:19,373 --> 01:13:30,373
The thing with lightning is there is no way we could possibly understate the amount
of just psychological corruption that has happened to people because of the block
size war.

1167
01:13:30,373 --> 01:13:33,373
So it's not it's not even anything against the light.

1168
01:13:33,373 --> 01:13:37,373
Again, I believe in pluralism and I think we should try all these things.

1169
01:13:37,373 --> 01:13:41,373
But what happened was there was a scaling war.

1170
01:13:41,373 --> 01:13:44,373
People said we want large blocks.

1171
01:13:44,373 --> 01:13:46,373
Other people said that's a bad idea.

1172
01:13:46,373 --> 01:13:49,373
And then the large block people said, well, what's what are we going to do instead?

1173
01:13:49,373 --> 01:13:53,373
And the small block people, myself included, we were like, well, here's this idea.

1174
01:13:53,373 --> 01:13:54,373
This is lightning network.

1175
01:13:55,373 --> 01:13:58,373
This is much better because now instead of.

1176
01:13:58,373 --> 01:14:06,373
Global state, which is like the UTXO said or whatever, which is like clearly not
going to work very well.

1177
01:14:06,373 --> 01:14:11,373
We have this thing where you prep it and then you have this whole second network.

1178
01:14:11,373 --> 01:14:16,373
And then there you just you you are responsible for your own little payments.

1179
01:14:16,373 --> 01:14:18,373
And no, no block chain.

1180
01:14:18,373 --> 01:14:20,373
So isn't that great?

1181
01:14:20,373 --> 01:14:22,373
And that's how it started.

1182
01:14:22,373 --> 01:14:26,373
And what happened was that the large blockers started to critique the lightning
network.

1183
01:14:26,373 --> 01:14:31,373
And many of their critics were wrong or wrong or just nonsensical.

1184
01:14:31,373 --> 01:14:34,373
So they were saying this and that they didn't they clearly didn't know of it.

1185
01:14:34,373 --> 01:14:38,373
Everyone was it was the same B.S. that is happening now with with with dry chain,
basically,

1186
01:14:38,373 --> 01:14:48,373
where there was a time when you could watch the original SF bit devs lightning
presentation.

1187
01:14:49,373 --> 01:14:53,373
And I would watch I would check in month after month.

1188
01:14:53,373 --> 01:14:59,373
I would check back at it because what I noticed, I watched the first time I said,
oh, this only has like 300 views.

1189
01:14:59,430 --> 01:15:04,430
I'm like the 300th person to learn about the lightning network, the future of
Bitcoin, the greatest technology like ever invented in the history of mankind up to
this point.

1190
01:15:04,430 --> 01:15:13,430
And I'm like, OK, that's weird. I'm like number 300. And then I I would come back
because I was like, this is a very difficult thing to understand.

1191
01:15:13,430 --> 01:15:17,430
I was like, I have to watch it again. And it was like three hundred and fourteen.

1192
01:15:17,430 --> 01:15:23,430
I was like, oh, help me in that. You can count me in. I was number 14.

1193
01:15:23,430 --> 01:15:28,430
And then so then I started to turn it into a little project where I was like.

1194
01:15:28,430 --> 01:15:39,430
I was like, why aren't the critics watching this video, like why aren't like I was
like, why doesn't the people who hate on lightning Roger here, whatever, whoever it
is, whatever.

1195
01:15:39,430 --> 01:15:43,430
Take your pick. Long list of people who could have. I was like, who are these
people?

1196
01:15:43,430 --> 01:15:50,430
Are they are they watching it or are they like maybe they downloaded it somewhere
and they played it to an auditorium?

1197
01:15:50,430 --> 01:15:54,430
I'm like trying to figure out. And month after month, year after year would go by.

1198
01:15:54,430 --> 01:15:57,430
And it took like two years for this thing to get to 400 views or something.

1199
01:15:57,430 --> 01:16:01,430
This was like the only resource other than the white paper, which.

1200
01:16:01,430 --> 01:16:04,430
No offense to the people who wrote the lightning white paper, I'm sure they did it.

1201
01:16:04,430 --> 01:16:11,430
They put a ton of they poured their heart and soul into it. I bet I found the those
butterfly diagrams.

1202
01:16:11,430 --> 01:16:15,430
I thought it would have been better if they just weren't in there. I couldn't make
any sense of it.

1203
01:16:15,430 --> 01:16:20,430
All the naming was horrendous. The presentation was good, though.

1204
01:16:20,430 --> 01:16:25,430
And but only 400 people on the planet Earth.

1205
01:16:25,430 --> 01:16:29,430
And this is I don't know exactly how YouTube is counting when I watch it, like five
or six times.

1206
01:16:29,430 --> 01:16:34,430
Like, is it do I eat those counts? I guess my guess is that they must.

1207
01:16:34,430 --> 01:16:37,430
Because otherwise, how could that style video get to like a billion?

1208
01:16:37,430 --> 01:16:42,430
I was like, what the heck is going on here? And the answer is that no one knew
anything about the lightning network.

1209
01:16:42,430 --> 01:16:46,430
People for or against. No one knew.

1210
01:16:46,430 --> 01:16:51,430
Today, they don't. I've been listening to all the lightning podcasts.

1211
01:16:51,430 --> 01:16:58,430
And I think they're starting to get it now. But the supposedly very technical
people, they didn't have any.

1212
01:16:58,430 --> 01:17:01,430
Even the Beatles, they didn't have any.

1213
01:17:02,430 --> 01:17:06,430
They were not paying very much attention to the lightning protocol and what was
supposed to do.

1214
01:17:06,430 --> 01:17:13,430
And so they didn't know the details. And there was also this split like the Tej
Draja.

1215
01:17:13,430 --> 01:17:20,430
He said at some point that the other guy, Joseph Poon, was saying that lightning
would scale.

1216
01:17:20,430 --> 01:17:22,430
Everything would fix the entire world.

1217
01:17:23,430 --> 01:17:28,430
And he was more like, no, this can facilitate some transactions like between
exchanges and etc.

1218
01:17:28,430 --> 01:17:31,430
But it won't scale Bitcoin to the entire world.

1219
01:17:31,430 --> 01:17:36,430
But that was the thesis that won the minds of people.

1220
01:17:36,430 --> 01:17:44,430
And everybody thought that. And still to this day, like he said, Tej Draja will say
that lightning will scale the entire world.

1221
01:17:45,430 --> 01:17:51,430
And still to this day, like he said, Tej Draja will say that lightning will scale
the entire world.

1222
01:17:51,430 --> 01:17:59,430
And still to this day, like he said, Tej Draja will say that the sub fee HTLCs that
do not exist,

1223
01:17:59,430 --> 01:18:05,430
you can send an HTLC on the lightning network and they actually do not exist as
HTLCs.

1224
01:18:05,430 --> 01:18:07,430
It's just a fake imagined concept.

1225
01:18:07,430 --> 01:18:09,430
He's 100% right about that.

1226
01:18:09,430 --> 01:18:11,430
He says that should not happen.

1227
01:18:12,430 --> 01:18:13,430
It's actually worse.

1228
01:18:13,430 --> 01:18:19,430
But the crazy thing is it seems to me that Peter Todd is not aware of that because
that happened also a few days ago.

1229
01:18:20,430 --> 01:18:25,430
He posted a screenshot with a bunch of one Satoshi transactions like, oh, it's
working.

1230
01:18:25,430 --> 01:18:29,430
Yeah, like how can he not understand?

1231
01:18:29,430 --> 01:18:31,430
So we can explain this to the audience maybe,

1232
01:18:31,430 --> 01:18:36,430
which is that the reason why there's no HTLC below the fee dust limit

1233
01:18:36,430 --> 01:18:44,430
is that the HTLC costs a certain amount of bytes to just write into the transaction.

1234
01:18:44,430 --> 01:18:49,430
And it expands the size of the transaction such that whatever fee rate you were
paying before.

1235
01:18:50,430 --> 01:18:53,430
See, because it's not fees in Bitcoin are per byte.

1236
01:18:53,430 --> 01:18:55,430
It's how much ink you use.

1237
01:18:55,430 --> 01:18:57,430
So let's say you have a...

1238
01:18:57,430 --> 01:19:02,430
This is how, for example, people like Roger Ver when they had to combine like 5000
inputs or something,

1239
01:19:02,430 --> 01:19:05,430
they could pay hundreds or thousands of dollars.

1240
01:19:06,430 --> 01:19:07,430
In transaction fees.

1241
01:19:08,430 --> 01:19:11,430
But I'll try to explain this here,

1242
01:19:11,430 --> 01:19:19,430
which is that let's say you planned on spending 50 cents for a 220 byte transaction.

1243
01:19:21,430 --> 01:19:29,430
And at that rate, 50 cents per 220 bytes, the HTLC for you to route this payment.

1244
01:19:30,430 --> 01:19:33,430
The payment, if you were to broadcast this on chain,

1245
01:19:33,430 --> 01:19:39,430
let alone for what it would take for you to later redeem it by selecting it as input
and providing the script.

1246
01:19:40,430 --> 01:19:43,430
I'm not sure if this is going to do a good job of explaining it,

1247
01:19:43,430 --> 01:19:49,430
but I'm going to try and maybe Stuart, you can tell me if anyone in the audience is
going to get this or whatever.

1248
01:19:50,430 --> 01:19:58,430
The amount of ink needed to write down the HTLC will cost more than the whole thing
is worth.

1249
01:19:58,430 --> 01:19:59,430
The whole thing is worth.

1250
01:19:59,430 --> 01:20:01,430
The whole thing is worth five cents.

1251
01:20:01,430 --> 01:20:07,430
But now to broadcast it on L1 is going to cost you 25 more cents.

1252
01:20:07,430 --> 01:20:12,430
The whole point of having the HTLC is so you can claim that five cents if someone
screws you.

1253
01:20:13,430 --> 01:20:21,430
But there's no reason to ever do that when it would cost 25 cents in ink to write it
down and then another another 50 cents in ink to later redeem it.

1254
01:20:21,430 --> 01:20:22,430
It would cost you more.

1255
01:20:22,430 --> 01:20:32,430
It's like going to court and someone hits your bike or dings your car and you're
going to need to sue them for $50.

1256
01:20:33,430 --> 01:20:35,430
But the court taking them to court.

1257
01:20:36,430 --> 01:20:41,430
There's a fee to get into the court that is $800.

1258
01:20:42,430 --> 01:20:45,430
But you can't tell the person, well, I'm going to take you to court.

1259
01:20:46,430 --> 01:20:49,430
They know you won't because you hit it on the head, man.

1260
01:20:49,430 --> 01:20:50,430
I think you hit it on the head.

1261
01:20:50,430 --> 01:20:51,430
I think you hit it on the head.

1262
01:20:51,430 --> 01:20:53,430
Fiat, do you have input to that before I go?

1263
01:20:53,430 --> 01:20:54,430
Yeah.

1264
01:20:54,430 --> 01:20:55,430
Yeah.

1265
01:20:55,430 --> 01:21:04,430
A friend of mine once won a lottery ticket and he won it with a lot of other people
in the entire country.

1266
01:21:04,430 --> 01:21:19,430
So when he went to the place to get his prize and the prize was barely just enough
to pay the bus that he spent.

1267
01:21:20,430 --> 01:21:21,430
So that's too bad.

1268
01:21:21,430 --> 01:21:24,430
I mean, Fiat, how do you explain what Peter Todd did there?

1269
01:21:24,430 --> 01:21:25,430
How do you explain that?

1270
01:21:25,430 --> 01:21:26,430
Oh, him showing me that screenshot.

1271
01:21:27,430 --> 01:21:29,430
I think he understands it.

1272
01:21:29,430 --> 01:21:32,430
I explicitly said the HTLCs do not work.

1273
01:21:32,430 --> 01:21:37,430
Because you can still have some version of the Lightning Network that just works if
you just say, listen, that's such a small amount of money.

1274
01:21:37,430 --> 01:21:39,430
I'll just forward it to you.

1275
01:21:39,430 --> 01:21:41,430
And then you forward it to the next person.

1276
01:21:41,430 --> 01:21:43,430
It's much worse than that.

1277
01:21:44,430 --> 01:21:46,430
It's much worse because they care.

1278
01:21:46,430 --> 01:21:50,430
The software treats it as if the HTLC existed.

1279
01:21:51,430 --> 01:22:03,430
So if the payment gets stuck, for example, and you have to close the channel and go
and claim the HTLC back whenever the time lock expires.

1280
01:22:03,430 --> 01:22:05,430
So the node software will do that.

1281
01:22:05,430 --> 01:22:11,430
It will close the channel, waste a bunch of fees, and then it will try to claim the
HTLC.

1282
01:22:11,430 --> 01:22:15,430
But at that point, it will realize the HTLC doesn't exist.

1283
01:22:15,430 --> 01:22:20,430
So it's much more dumb if they just agreed to say...

1284
01:22:20,430 --> 01:22:22,430
But if you did agree...

1285
01:22:22,430 --> 01:22:29,430
There's discussion about this sometimes whenever the Lightning people are not
sleeping.

1286
01:22:29,430 --> 01:22:40,430
They sometimes talk about this and they say, oh, but if we don't close the channel,
then that means the person can steal money from us and we won't do anything.

1287
01:22:40,430 --> 01:22:42,430
So there's really no solution.

1288
01:22:42,430 --> 01:22:46,430
I wrote an article trying to explain the problem.

1289
01:22:47,430 --> 01:22:49,430
There's no solution for this.

1290
01:22:49,430 --> 01:22:51,430
You close the channel, but you just lose the channel.

1291
01:22:51,430 --> 01:22:53,430
You just lose the channel.

1292
01:22:53,430 --> 01:22:59,430
And then the person can open another channel with you and then the person can try to
screw you up again.

1293
01:22:59,430 --> 01:23:01,430
But they also don't gain anything from that.

1294
01:23:01,430 --> 01:23:05,430
So no one is trying to do that on purpose.

1295
01:23:05,430 --> 01:23:09,430
But it happens a lot because of bugs and other tricks.

1296
01:23:10,430 --> 01:23:14,430
How do you explain what Peter Todd is doing?

1297
01:23:14,430 --> 01:23:19,430
Because I said HTLCs don't work when it's below the L1 fee rate.

1298
01:23:19,430 --> 01:23:24,430
And they posted that screenshot and I said, those aren't HTLCs, which they clearly
aren't.

1299
01:23:24,430 --> 01:23:34,430
And if they were, then it was an example where Peter Todd's node was actually
prepared to go to court, spend $800 to win like a $20 case.

1300
01:23:34,430 --> 01:23:37,430
So that would actually be even worse if they were HTLCs.

1301
01:23:38,430 --> 01:23:46,430
The protocol says that the nodes have to agree exactly on what's the transaction
they're presigning.

1302
01:23:46,430 --> 01:23:49,430
So you can't choose.

1303
01:23:49,430 --> 01:23:52,430
The nodes do what they must do always.

1304
01:23:52,430 --> 01:23:59,430
So whenever an HTLC is very cheap, the node doesn't create the HTLCs, actually.

1305
01:23:59,430 --> 01:24:05,430
I know, but I'm saying, why is Peter Todd saying that those are using HTLCs?

1306
01:24:05,430 --> 01:24:08,430
Is it really possible that he does not know?

1307
01:24:08,430 --> 01:24:10,430
If he said that, then he doesn't know.

1308
01:24:10,430 --> 01:24:11,430
Yeah, I don't know.

1309
01:24:11,430 --> 01:24:13,430
I mean, but that's kind of surprising to me.

1310
01:24:13,430 --> 01:24:17,430
I remember he saying that, oh, it's not worth for the other node to try to cheat.

1311
01:24:17,430 --> 01:24:18,430
So he won't.

1312
01:24:18,430 --> 01:24:21,430
But the fact is that they are not HTLCs.

1313
01:24:21,430 --> 01:24:22,430
But that's completely different.

1314
01:24:22,430 --> 01:24:23,430
They're not like Lightning.

1315
01:24:23,430 --> 01:24:31,430
Lightning is very carefully defined as these duplex channels that have HTLCs.

1316
01:24:31,430 --> 01:24:33,430
That is what the Lightning network is.

1317
01:24:34,430 --> 01:24:36,430
Well, they're called HTLCs in the protocol.

1318
01:24:36,430 --> 01:24:42,430
They're called trimmed HTLCs, like HTLCs that you just don't make.

1319
01:24:42,430 --> 01:24:43,430
But they're called HTLCs.

1320
01:24:43,430 --> 01:24:46,430
They have a payment hash associated with them.

1321
01:24:46,430 --> 01:24:52,430
And these payment hashes, they're supposed to identify HTLCs.

1322
01:24:52,430 --> 01:24:55,430
And you get a preimage for that to prove that you paid.

1323
01:24:55,430 --> 01:25:01,430
And you can use the preimage to redeem the HTLC on the chain.

1324
01:25:01,430 --> 01:25:02,430
And you have all of that.

1325
01:25:02,430 --> 01:25:04,430
But you don't actually have the HTLC.

1326
01:25:04,430 --> 01:25:07,430
It's a very ugly thing.

1327
01:25:07,430 --> 01:25:11,430
You get a preimage for the hash doesn't exist anywhere on the blockchain.

1328
01:25:11,430 --> 01:25:12,430
Like when you broadcast.

1329
01:25:12,430 --> 01:25:13,430
No, no.

1330
01:25:13,430 --> 01:25:15,430
On the blockchain, it doesn't exist.

1331
01:25:15,430 --> 01:25:16,430
Right.

1332
01:25:16,430 --> 01:25:18,430
Because why would you get it?

1333
01:25:18,430 --> 01:25:20,430
It doesn't make any sense at all.

1334
01:25:20,430 --> 01:25:26,430
So I guess maybe he's saying the trimmed HTLC is a real HTLC, even though it doesn't
exist.

1335
01:25:26,430 --> 01:25:28,430
Even though that doesn't make sense.

1336
01:25:29,430 --> 01:25:32,430
I mean, because the HTLC, what it stands for is hash time locked contract.

1337
01:25:32,430 --> 01:25:35,430
So the hash is the whole point.

1338
01:25:35,430 --> 01:25:36,430
Yeah.

1339
01:25:36,430 --> 01:25:38,430
There's no H anywhere.

1340
01:25:38,430 --> 01:25:41,430
There's also no time lock.

1341
01:25:41,430 --> 01:25:42,430
This is a time lock.

1342
01:25:42,430 --> 01:25:45,430
Yeah.

1343
01:25:45,430 --> 01:25:51,430
Yeah, but they just want to treat a payment with a trimmed HTLC as if.

1344
01:25:51,430 --> 01:25:55,430
Yeah, but the trimmed HTLC, again, it's like custodial lightning or something.

1345
01:25:55,430 --> 01:25:58,430
Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?

1346
01:25:58,430 --> 01:26:02,430
It's like all the meaning is destroyed.

1347
01:26:02,430 --> 01:26:05,430
It's like when they had the hosted blockchain.

1348
01:26:05,430 --> 01:26:08,430
And the payment goes to miners.

1349
01:26:08,430 --> 01:26:10,430
The amounts go to miners.

1350
01:26:10,430 --> 01:26:11,430
Oh, yeah, yeah.

1351
01:26:11,430 --> 01:26:13,430
But that's another intriguing.

1352
01:26:13,430 --> 01:26:15,430
Doesn't that affect mining incentives?

1353
01:26:15,430 --> 01:26:17,430
That's what I was going to say.

1354
01:26:17,430 --> 01:26:19,430
This is a completely separate matter.

1355
01:26:19,430 --> 01:26:23,430
But what it technically means is that if the L1 fee rate is high, then you should
only

1356
01:26:23,430 --> 01:26:24,430
open.

1357
01:26:24,430 --> 01:26:29,430
It's only incentive compatible if you open the channel with the miners are the ones
who

1358
01:26:29,430 --> 01:26:31,430
should be opening the channels.

1359
01:26:31,430 --> 01:26:33,430
And then the miners control all the channels.

1360
01:26:33,430 --> 01:26:36,430
And then it actually becomes a BIP300 hashrate escrow.

1361
01:26:36,430 --> 01:26:38,430
The lightning network does.

1362
01:26:38,430 --> 01:26:43,430
That's the exact same logic that Peter Todd's weird equilibrium of mining costs,
where it's

1363
01:26:43,430 --> 01:26:48,430
like $0.10 worth of advantage becomes this insurmountable, unstoppable force that we

1364
01:26:48,430 --> 01:26:51,430
have no recourse for.

1365
01:26:51,430 --> 01:26:54,430
It's like, oh, OK, well, now miners should be the only ones to open the channels.

1366
01:26:54,430 --> 01:26:57,430
Everyone else should have a custodial lightning with the miners.

1367
01:26:57,430 --> 01:27:01,430
And then it's like, oh, no, that's just BIP300, except much worse, because you have
no

1368
01:27:01,430 --> 01:27:07,430
ability to stand as a group against the detect the mistake.

1369
01:27:07,430 --> 01:27:13,430
So I'm going to use the two of you as a soundboard for this opinion that I have.

1370
01:27:13,430 --> 01:27:19,430
One of the solutions that I want to create for this transactional layer is to say,
well,

1371
01:27:19,430 --> 01:27:24,430
OK, don't use this sort of like relay type system.

1372
01:27:24,430 --> 01:27:26,430
How do I explain this?

1373
01:27:26,430 --> 01:27:31,430
The way lightning does it is it uses this, it's supposed to use this hash time lock
contract

1374
01:27:31,430 --> 01:27:35,430
between these different nodes and sort of find a route through the network.

1375
01:27:35,430 --> 01:27:40,430
And if it fails, then the hash time lock contract sort of like, you know, fall back.

1376
01:27:40,430 --> 01:27:45,430
You can either, after a certain time, you can grab the contents of this little
locker,

1377
01:27:45,430 --> 01:27:47,430
or else it just gets forwarded.

1378
01:27:48,430 --> 01:27:50,430
And to your point, Paul, I agree with you.

1379
01:27:50,430 --> 01:27:55,430
It's you've got like an $800 fee to go to the court to settle for like a $20 thing.

1380
01:27:55,430 --> 01:27:57,430
Right.

1381
01:27:57,430 --> 01:27:59,430
My thoughts are.

1382
01:27:59,430 --> 01:28:03,430
As a as a Drivechain sidechain.

1383
01:28:03,430 --> 01:28:08,430
The correct way to do this is you actually do have the underlying network, which is
the

1384
01:28:08,430 --> 01:28:15,430
sort of sort of flood first forwarding type network or specifically information
centric

1385
01:28:15,430 --> 01:28:19,430
networking type network that can forward.

1386
01:28:19,430 --> 01:28:27,430
So if I just say I want to pay this amount of value from me to you, Fiat Jeff, or
you,

1387
01:28:27,430 --> 01:28:32,430
Paul, what will happen is the network will see this and see the endpoints, the two
public

1388
01:28:32,430 --> 01:28:37,430
keys and say, OK, just forward this information and then it'll be the network's
responsibility

1389
01:28:37,430 --> 01:28:40,430
to get it from me to your public key.

1390
01:28:41,430 --> 01:28:47,430
And then once that happens, then we can directly know intermediaries come to an
agreement.

1391
01:28:49,430 --> 01:28:55,430
Would this be and yeah, and is this the would you say that this is a better way of
handling

1392
01:28:55,430 --> 01:28:57,430
something like lightning?

1393
01:28:57,430 --> 01:28:59,430
But how do you transfer?

1394
01:28:59,430 --> 01:29:01,430
How do you transfer?

1395
01:29:01,430 --> 01:29:05,430
Yeah, well, you know, the network is intelligent enough to find you.

1396
01:29:06,430 --> 01:29:08,430
Yeah, but how does the money go for you?

1397
01:29:08,430 --> 01:29:13,430
This is not a great thing about the lightning network is that you you know, you need
to

1398
01:29:13,430 --> 01:29:16,430
like some people run it behind Tor, which is great.

1399
01:29:16,430 --> 01:29:21,430
I mean, I don't know, like if like if people but, you know, it's also like very
keyed on

1400
01:29:21,430 --> 01:29:27,430
finding your like your IP address and interacting with you, which I think is
actually one of

1401
01:29:27,430 --> 01:29:32,430
yet more of it's why it will probably not be that popular.

1402
01:29:33,430 --> 01:29:34,430
I don't really understand.

1403
01:29:34,430 --> 01:29:38,430
It's like your idea is we have these people and we know that now we know the path
that

1404
01:29:38,430 --> 01:29:39,430
connects a to B.

1405
01:29:39,430 --> 01:29:44,430
My point is that the underlying network can be over any transport.

1406
01:29:44,430 --> 01:29:45,430
It doesn't have to be over IP.

1407
01:29:45,430 --> 01:29:47,430
It could be over radio frequency.

1408
01:29:47,430 --> 01:29:49,430
It could be over any transport.

1409
01:29:49,430 --> 01:29:55,430
The network is treats it as as an opaque data chunk.

1410
01:29:55,430 --> 01:29:56,430
It doesn't give it.

1411
01:29:56,430 --> 01:29:58,430
It could be a cat image.

1412
01:29:58,430 --> 01:30:00,430
It could be a value.

1413
01:30:00,430 --> 01:30:01,430
It could be I don't know.

1414
01:30:01,430 --> 01:30:03,430
The point is that it could be something.

1415
01:30:03,430 --> 01:30:06,430
And in this in this form, it could be I don't know, maybe a Bitcoin transaction.

1416
01:30:06,430 --> 01:30:12,430
But the point is, it's it's just a black box that goes from me to you.

1417
01:30:12,430 --> 01:30:16,430
And well, whatever you're going to put into that, it could be a hash time lock
contract

1418
01:30:16,430 --> 01:30:21,430
between the two of us and not a chain, for example.

1419
01:30:21,430 --> 01:30:23,430
That doesn't work.

1420
01:30:23,430 --> 01:30:24,430
That doesn't work.

1421
01:30:24,430 --> 01:30:28,430
And if you say, well, I mean, the what happens with lightning is everyone already
has these

1422
01:30:28,430 --> 01:30:31,430
multi signature outputs that are two of two.

1423
01:30:31,430 --> 01:30:33,430
They have a certain amount of coins in them.

1424
01:30:33,430 --> 01:30:34,430
Yes.

1425
01:30:34,430 --> 01:30:35,430
And that there's a split.

1426
01:30:35,430 --> 01:30:42,430
So like if there's maybe there's 22 coins in one of these, it could be split like
for 18.

1427
01:30:42,430 --> 01:30:43,430
Yeah.

1428
01:30:43,430 --> 01:30:45,430
But there's actually something on L1 that says whatever.

1429
01:30:45,430 --> 01:30:47,430
Twenty two coins.

1430
01:30:47,430 --> 01:30:49,430
This output.

1431
01:30:49,430 --> 01:30:51,430
That's like the funding of lightning.

1432
01:30:52,430 --> 01:31:00,430
So that's why you can move stuff through those HTLC related stuff, because that
already exists.

1433
01:31:00,430 --> 01:31:05,430
And with your thing, you didn't really explain, like, what is it moving?

1434
01:31:05,430 --> 01:31:08,430
What is happening on L1 to move the two?

1435
01:31:08,430 --> 01:31:09,430
How do the coins?

1436
01:31:09,430 --> 01:31:11,430
Who has what coins?

1437
01:31:11,430 --> 01:31:12,430
So, well, OK.

1438
01:31:12,430 --> 01:31:13,430
OK.

1439
01:31:13,430 --> 01:31:18,430
I mean, so my my main issue here is that my main point that I'm trying to make is
that

1440
01:31:18,430 --> 01:31:23,430
getting the data from person A to person B is just the problem I'm solving.

1441
01:31:23,430 --> 01:31:28,430
The actual value transfer that that's that's that's something that, well, first of
all,

1442
01:31:28,430 --> 01:31:32,430
it's far away enough that I haven't thought about that clearly enough.

1443
01:31:32,430 --> 01:31:38,430
But but the point is that the point is that is me connecting directly from me to
you.

1444
01:31:38,430 --> 01:31:44,430
And instead of having to go through like a how can I say a first class routing
network

1445
01:31:44,430 --> 01:31:47,430
specifically designed for routing these payments?

1446
01:31:47,430 --> 01:31:48,430
No, don't do that.

1447
01:31:48,430 --> 01:31:54,430
Just just use the underlying network, which would communicate this value transfer.

1448
01:31:54,430 --> 01:31:59,430
The reason the reason the lightning has these these other network is because we have
to

1449
01:31:59,430 --> 01:32:01,430
move the money through that.

1450
01:32:01,430 --> 01:32:07,430
And the channels have to exist before like they have to exist beforehand.

1451
01:32:07,430 --> 01:32:12,430
Doesn't doesn't matter if I can't contact you directly if you're like inside you.

1452
01:32:12,430 --> 01:32:15,430
But that's what but that's what causes the eight hundred dollar bill.

1453
01:32:15,430 --> 01:32:16,430
You see.

1454
01:32:16,430 --> 01:32:17,430
And if I just have.

1455
01:32:17,430 --> 01:32:18,430
Am I correct?

1456
01:32:18,430 --> 01:32:22,430
But if I just have like if there's just a single hash time lock contract between us,

1457
01:32:22,430 --> 01:32:24,430
then you have to.

1458
01:32:24,430 --> 01:32:26,430
That's what keeps the chain.

1459
01:32:26,430 --> 01:32:29,430
Well, that's what you mean by the eight hundred dollar bill.

1460
01:32:29,430 --> 01:32:30,430
Yeah.

1461
01:32:30,430 --> 01:32:34,430
The idea with the HTLC is you have a stuff that's already open.

1462
01:32:34,430 --> 01:32:35,430
Yes.

1463
01:32:35,430 --> 01:32:40,430
And then there are the HTLC is the less the payment goes through a third party.

1464
01:32:40,430 --> 01:32:42,430
It's like you don't see.

1465
01:32:42,430 --> 01:32:46,430
Because otherwise it's very there's plenty of people in life that you'll pay more
than

1466
01:32:46,430 --> 01:32:51,430
one time or they'll pay you like, you know, your boss or like your favorite takeout
place

1467
01:32:51,430 --> 01:32:52,430
or whatever.

1468
01:32:52,430 --> 01:32:57,430
So you have a channel with them and then just like a bar tab, but cryptographically
enforced

1469
01:32:57,430 --> 01:32:58,430
now.

1470
01:32:58,430 --> 01:33:02,430
But you see, the real world just has too many instances where you have to pay
someone that

1471
01:33:02,430 --> 01:33:03,430
you'll never pay again.

1472
01:33:03,430 --> 01:33:04,430
Yes.

1473
01:33:04,430 --> 01:33:06,430
For that to work.

1474
01:33:06,430 --> 01:33:07,430
So.

1475
01:33:07,430 --> 01:33:09,430
So the question is, what do we do about that?

1476
01:33:09,430 --> 01:33:11,430
And the lightning answers the HTLC.

1477
01:33:11,430 --> 01:33:15,430
It lets it lets it lets you make it so that.

1478
01:33:15,430 --> 01:33:20,430
I can pay you, you can pay the next person on the chain, and they either all happen
or

1479
01:33:20,430 --> 01:33:21,430
they don't happen.

1480
01:33:21,430 --> 01:33:25,430
So the HTLC is a kind of like a synchronicity event.

1481
01:33:25,430 --> 01:33:27,430
It is like.

1482
01:33:27,430 --> 01:33:31,430
I don't know, something in a movie where everyone is the same.

1483
01:33:31,430 --> 01:33:33,430
Insert movie reference here.

1484
01:33:33,430 --> 01:33:34,430
What is it?

1485
01:33:34,430 --> 01:33:36,430
I was thinking of something.

1486
01:33:36,430 --> 01:33:37,430
OK.

1487
01:33:37,430 --> 01:33:38,430
OK.

1488
01:33:39,430 --> 01:33:40,430
Yes.

1489
01:33:42,430 --> 01:33:45,430
Oh, well, there's a there's actually one thing was in Indiana Jones.

1490
01:33:45,430 --> 01:33:47,430
He gets the idol.

1491
01:33:47,430 --> 01:33:49,430
He steals the idol at the very beginning.

1492
01:33:49,430 --> 01:33:50,430
The latest movie.

1493
01:33:50,430 --> 01:33:52,430
He has the gold thing.

1494
01:33:52,430 --> 01:33:53,430
Yes.

1495
01:33:53,430 --> 01:33:55,430
And he is with that guy.

1496
01:33:55,430 --> 01:33:56,430
He's going to swap.

1497
01:33:56,430 --> 01:33:57,430
Right.

1498
01:33:57,430 --> 01:33:58,430
Are you talking about the latest movie?

1499
01:33:58,430 --> 01:33:59,430
Because I have not seen it.

1500
01:33:59,430 --> 01:34:00,430
I haven't seen the latest.

1501
01:34:00,430 --> 01:34:01,430
No, I'm talking about the.

1502
01:34:01,430 --> 01:34:02,430
Oh, you're talking about the one where he swaps it.

1503
01:34:02,430 --> 01:34:03,430
Yes.

1504
01:34:03,430 --> 01:34:04,430
And he has the thing.

1505
01:34:04,430 --> 01:34:07,430
And he has to jump across the chasm.

1506
01:34:07,430 --> 01:34:10,430
And the guy says, throw me the rope.

1507
01:34:11,430 --> 01:34:12,430
Indy is in trouble.

1508
01:34:12,430 --> 01:34:14,430
He says, throw me the rope.

1509
01:34:14,430 --> 01:34:17,430
And the guy says, throw me the idol.

1510
01:34:17,430 --> 01:34:21,430
And Indy looks at the idol or whatever, and he looks at the rope and he says,

1511
01:34:21,430 --> 01:34:22,430
you first.

1512
01:34:22,430 --> 01:34:26,430
And the guy looks over and the the door is closing and like the spike

1513
01:34:26,430 --> 01:34:29,430
trap is coming down or whatever.

1514
01:34:29,430 --> 01:34:32,430
And the guy says, no time to argue.

1515
01:34:32,430 --> 01:34:36,430
So Indy throws him the idol.

1516
01:34:36,430 --> 01:34:38,430
And then he doesn't throw him the rope.

1517
01:34:38,430 --> 01:34:41,430
And then Indy has to use the whip to get across.

1518
01:34:41,430 --> 01:34:44,430
And then right in the next room, this is the magic of Steven Spielberg or

1519
01:34:44,430 --> 01:34:48,430
whatever, right in the next room, he's been impaled on the spike trap

1520
01:34:48,430 --> 01:34:50,430
holding the idol.

1521
01:34:50,430 --> 01:34:52,430
So he says something like, adios, senor.

1522
01:34:52,430 --> 01:34:54,430
And then Indy sees him and he's like dead.

1523
01:34:54,430 --> 01:34:57,430
And he grabs the idol back and he's like, you know, adios, senor,

1524
01:34:57,430 --> 01:34:58,430
or whatever.

1525
01:34:58,430 --> 01:34:59,430
He says the same thing.

1526
01:34:59,430 --> 01:35:00,430
And then he escapes.

1527
01:35:00,430 --> 01:35:03,430
So the HTLC is like the rope and the idol going at the same time.

1528
01:35:04,430 --> 01:35:06,430
You cannot take the idol without leaving the rope.

1529
01:35:06,430 --> 01:35:08,430
That's what the HTLC does.

1530
01:35:08,430 --> 01:35:12,430
It only works if you already have the channels open.

1531
01:35:12,430 --> 01:35:13,430
Yeah.

1532
01:35:13,430 --> 01:35:17,430
So setting up and tearing down those channels is the expensive thing.

1533
01:35:17,430 --> 01:35:20,430
The onboarding problem is very big for Lightning.

1534
01:35:20,430 --> 01:35:24,430
And one crazy thing that doesn't make any sense to me at all is that I

1535
01:35:24,430 --> 01:35:27,430
appear to be the only person who is willing to talk about it at all.

1536
01:35:27,430 --> 01:35:28,430
I don't know why or how.

1537
01:35:28,430 --> 01:35:30,430
There's not enough room to onboard the whole world.

1538
01:35:30,430 --> 01:35:33,430
I just said in April of last year or whatever, I was like, well,

1539
01:35:33,430 --> 01:35:35,430
it was February of last year.

1540
01:35:35,430 --> 01:35:36,430
Or maybe, I don't know,

1541
01:35:36,430 --> 01:35:39,430
maybe the time I'm getting older and I'm losing all my marbles and I

1542
01:35:39,430 --> 01:35:43,430
don't know what year it is, but I think it was February of last year.

1543
01:35:43,430 --> 01:35:46,430
I was on the mailing list just talking about everything, you know,

1544
01:35:46,430 --> 01:35:47,430
this and that.

1545
01:35:47,430 --> 01:35:51,430
And then they were like, they were like, yeah,

1546
01:35:51,430 --> 01:35:55,430
Lightning is better for onboarding than sidechains.

1547
01:35:55,430 --> 01:35:56,430
And I was like, oh, really?

1548
01:35:56,430 --> 01:35:58,430
And then I was like, that doesn't sound right.

1549
01:35:58,430 --> 01:36:00,430
And so I did the envelope and I was like, this envelope math is terrible.

1550
01:36:00,430 --> 01:36:04,430
Like it would take like 122 years to onboard everyone to the Lightning

1551
01:36:04,430 --> 01:36:07,430
network. And then they were like, well, channel factories.

1552
01:36:07,430 --> 01:36:08,430
And then I was like, what?

1553
01:36:08,430 --> 01:36:12,430
And I was like a channel factory doesn't work because if anyone in the

1554
01:36:12,430 --> 01:36:14,430
channel factory doesn't participate,

1555
01:36:14,430 --> 01:36:16,430
you have to drag the whole thing back on chain.

1556
01:36:16,430 --> 01:36:19,430
And the channel factor is like 20 times the size of normal Bitcoin

1557
01:36:19,430 --> 01:36:22,430
transaction to do unwind.

1558
01:36:22,430 --> 01:36:26,430
And creating it is also like it requires coordination.

1559
01:36:27,430 --> 01:36:28,430
So it doesn't fix it at all.

1560
01:36:28,430 --> 01:36:32,430
There's a video from Roger Beard where he makes the math.

1561
01:36:32,430 --> 01:36:37,430
I kind of vaguely remember he has like an Excel spreadsheet or something.

1562
01:36:37,430 --> 01:36:38,430
I don't know.

1563
01:36:38,430 --> 01:36:40,430
I vaguely remember that.

1564
01:36:40,430 --> 01:36:41,430
Yeah.

1565
01:36:41,430 --> 01:36:44,430
But at the time I was like beginning to learn about Lightning and doing

1566
01:36:44,430 --> 01:36:45,430
stuff.

1567
01:36:45,430 --> 01:36:46,430
Yes.

1568
01:36:46,430 --> 01:36:47,430
This is absolutely crucial to point out,

1569
01:36:47,430 --> 01:36:52,430
which is that Roger will certainly get the last laugh on that one.

1570
01:36:52,430 --> 01:36:56,430
But there were a lot of critique.

1571
01:36:56,430 --> 01:37:00,430
I don't think that necessarily like there were a lot of critiques of

1572
01:37:00,430 --> 01:37:01,430
Lightning at the time.

1573
01:37:01,430 --> 01:37:02,430
And they,

1574
01:37:02,430 --> 01:37:05,430
I don't believe that most of the people really understood the Lightning

1575
01:37:05,430 --> 01:37:07,430
network when they made the critiques,

1576
01:37:07,430 --> 01:37:11,430
just like I think the people who are pro Lightning were also bullshitting.

1577
01:37:11,430 --> 01:37:13,430
I think the whole thing was just a bunch of BS really.

1578
01:37:13,430 --> 01:37:16,430
And people were just like making stuff up and no one really knew what they

1579
01:37:16,430 --> 01:37:18,430
were talking about,

1580
01:37:18,430 --> 01:37:21,430
but he's certainly going to get the last laugh on as far as Lightning

1581
01:37:21,430 --> 01:37:25,430
onboarding, which I think is.

1582
01:37:25,430 --> 01:37:28,430
Very perplexing.

1583
01:37:28,430 --> 01:37:32,430
Well, certainly whatever to fix, whatever you have to do to fix that,

1584
01:37:32,430 --> 01:37:36,430
it will be so different from the Lightning network proposed by as Roger

1585
01:37:36,430 --> 01:37:40,430
and Joseph Poon as to be effectively like a different differently named

1586
01:37:40,430 --> 01:37:43,430
thing.

1587
01:37:43,430 --> 01:37:45,430
So there you go.

1588
01:37:45,430 --> 01:37:47,430
But yeah, I thought that was.

1589
01:37:47,430 --> 01:37:49,430
One of the critics was the hub thing.

1590
01:37:49,430 --> 01:37:50,430
Oh,

1591
01:37:50,430 --> 01:37:52,430
the Lightning was centralizing a few hubs.

1592
01:37:52,430 --> 01:37:55,430
The Lightning defenders,

1593
01:37:55,430 --> 01:37:57,430
they would all say, no, no, no.

1594
01:37:57,430 --> 01:37:58,430
That would never happen.

1595
01:37:58,430 --> 01:37:59,430
Right.

1596
01:37:59,430 --> 01:38:00,430
Exactly.

1597
01:38:00,430 --> 01:38:01,430
And I also thought it wouldn't happen.

1598
01:38:01,430 --> 01:38:03,430
I thought, well, why would they, I mean, hubs are great,

1599
01:38:03,430 --> 01:38:05,430
but it doesn't matter if they're hubs.

1600
01:38:05,430 --> 01:38:07,430
And no, I think I was wrong about that.

1601
01:38:07,430 --> 01:38:08,430
And now we have, we see, for example,

1602
01:38:08,430 --> 01:38:12,430
the Barak creator of Arc, a brilliant guy,

1603
01:38:12,430 --> 01:38:15,430
but he's like, he, he comes out of the gate.

1604
01:38:15,430 --> 01:38:18,430
Like he starts to do his Arc explanation.

1605
01:38:18,430 --> 01:38:19,430
I've seen it a few times.

1606
01:38:19,430 --> 01:38:23,430
There's actually a funny video at Bitcoin plus plus in Austin of me,

1607
01:38:23,430 --> 01:38:25,430
everyone in the audience has been confused,

1608
01:38:25,430 --> 01:38:27,430
including me being completely confused.

1609
01:38:27,430 --> 01:38:28,430
And me just trying.

1610
01:38:28,430 --> 01:38:29,430
It's impossible to understand his explanation.

1611
01:38:29,430 --> 01:38:31,430
Pull all the idea out of his head.

1612
01:38:31,430 --> 01:38:38,430
What he says,

1613
01:38:38,430 --> 01:38:39,430
he, what he says,

1614
01:38:39,430 --> 01:38:42,430
like right out of the gate, he's like,

1615
01:38:42,430 --> 01:38:44,430
so obviously Lightning doesn't work or whatever.

1616
01:38:44,430 --> 01:38:45,430
Lightning is terrible.

1617
01:38:45,430 --> 01:38:47,430
And then it's like, and then he's like, it only works.

1618
01:38:47,430 --> 01:38:50,430
If we have these big hubs that do everything.

1619
01:38:50,430 --> 01:38:52,430
And so we need to make these hubs.

1620
01:38:52,430 --> 01:38:54,430
We have to make sure that these hubs work.

1621
01:38:54,430 --> 01:38:56,430
You can always easily join and leave the hub.

1622
01:38:56,430 --> 01:38:58,430
So it's all about hubs.

1623
01:38:58,430 --> 01:39:02,430
And everyone is only going to have a connection to one lightning node.

1624
01:39:02,430 --> 01:39:05,430
Like they're, they're not going to like have all these things that have,

1625
01:39:05,430 --> 01:39:08,430
like, there'll be like a hub one and then like backup hub.

1626
01:39:08,430 --> 01:39:15,430
And, and we need to be able to let them open the hub and start spending

1627
01:39:15,430 --> 01:39:18,430
before the, so it's like, so he is just like right out of the gate.

1628
01:39:18,430 --> 01:39:20,430
Like bro hub.

1629
01:39:20,430 --> 01:39:22,430
But it's not, it's not just him.

1630
01:39:22,430 --> 01:39:25,430
Like all the other lightning overalls, they're, they're doing the same.

1631
01:39:25,430 --> 01:39:27,430
Like they have this LSP thing.

1632
01:39:27,430 --> 01:39:32,430
They're like one company running, running a lightning server for all his.

1633
01:39:32,430 --> 01:39:36,430
That is a bad one too for the, that's very bad for the, well, hey,

1634
01:39:36,430 --> 01:39:38,430
if you interrupt, but you know, it's like the,

1635
01:39:38,430 --> 01:39:40,430
that was another thing that they said,

1636
01:39:40,430 --> 01:39:42,430
the large blocker said is that these people just become banks.

1637
01:39:43,430 --> 01:39:45,430
And at the time I was like, what are they even talking about?

1638
01:39:45,430 --> 01:39:48,430
Like banks, like it's like a cryptographic thing.

1639
01:39:48,430 --> 01:39:51,430
Who even cares if they call themselves banks doesn't matter.

1640
01:39:51,430 --> 01:39:53,430
But now they have become banks like for real.

1641
01:39:53,430 --> 01:39:57,430
Like they actually own everyone's Bitcoin and these people don't even own a channel.

1642
01:39:58,589 --> 01:40:25,589
And there are two modes, like there's the custodial wallets that are much bigger
than everything else. And there are these LSPs, they, they actually don't, they have
the money. Like they just open the channel, like you install a wallet, like Phoenix
wallet or whatever. And the wallet automatically opens a channel to one specific
central hub. And you leave with that. And, and that's been enshrined in the
protocol, like new additions to the lighting protocol already, you know, it's a,
it's a, it's a, it's a, it's a, it's a, it's a, it's a, it's a,

1643
01:40:25,589 --> 01:40:40,909
assume these hubs exist, like you need these to do a bunch of niceties for the
protocol. So they accepted that they have model, but the custodial, the custodial
stuff is much, much, much more. It exists in much more.

1644
01:40:40,909 --> 01:41:01,229
Hmm. So Paul's buggered off for a second. He'll, I'm sure he'll be back. Um, um,
yeah. Fiat Jeff. Um, you got, you got, you got interrupted a little bit early on
when you're describing, um, um, your, your, your, what's it? The, the, the, the,
the, the trusting transactional layer. I don't know what you call that.

1645
01:41:01,229 --> 01:41:12,229
Well, I went, I, um, I liked this idea of the hosted channels, which was actually,
and the main reason why you wanted to do that was what was the, what problem are you
solving?

1646
01:41:12,229 --> 01:41:30,229
I want to get, I want to do one follow-up question with Fiat Jeff regarding the, the
work that he did on the, on the, the, the trusted transactional layer. Um, and I
want to know what problem he's solving.

1647
01:41:30,229 --> 01:41:51,229
Well, the problem I solve is I want cheap transactions that work. You don't have to
store a bunch of things, run a bunch of things and just want to do. And it's better
than using a custodial wallet, which is the preferred solution for the very, very
vast majority of Lightning users today.

1648
01:41:51,229 --> 01:41:55,229
So how did you get to the main chain? Did you also have some, yeah, yeah, yeah.

1649
01:41:55,229 --> 01:42:11,229
No, in this case you would interface with some provider, like some server that has
actual Lightning channels and you would trust that one. You trust that server, but
that server would forward your payments to the, to the other, to the rest of the
network.

1650
01:42:11,229 --> 01:42:15,229
I see. Okay. So you're going to have some sort of, um.

1651
01:42:15,229 --> 01:42:41,229
I think, I think Lightning is like this, this very convoluted, cumbersome, complex,
super failable, like super flaky, whatever. It's very bad. And just so people can
tip some 25 Satoshis to others, like you, you don't need that. You don't need all
that though. It's whatever.

1652
01:42:42,229 --> 01:42:56,229
So if you just made a trust, a network made of trust or small amounts, it would be
much easier to do. It would be simpler to be, everything would be much easier and
you could make it so it was actually decentralized.

1653
01:42:56,229 --> 01:43:18,229
And instead of having a bunch of like, because today you try, everybody's trying to
optimize for this super adversarial network, whatever. But what, what happens in the
end is 99% of the users are all having a, using a custodial provider, like one of
the five custodial providers that exist.

1654
01:43:18,229 --> 01:43:41,229
And if you could like, instead of make it, make a actually decentralized network of
trust and you trust your friends, I think it would be much better outcome. And you
wouldn't use any of that to store your life savings. You would buy a coffee and to
tip people, send tips because apparently that's the real, the thing that people love
more.

1655
01:43:41,229 --> 01:43:46,229
Well, it's America. They do a lot of tipping, right?

1656
01:43:46,229 --> 01:43:50,229
Yes. Failing to tip is, you go straight to hell.

1657
01:43:50,229 --> 01:43:54,229
Social ostracization for you.

1658
01:43:54,229 --> 01:44:11,229
Yeah, it is funny. It's one of those things where the easier the crime is to get
away with, the more proportionate the, the, the whatever, the deterrent, like
everyone would turn on you. There's not a single person who would defend you.

1659
01:44:12,229 --> 01:44:17,229
Get out of here as you walk out the, the, the diner. That's what you guys call it.

1660
01:44:18,229 --> 01:44:35,229
I think it's kind of interesting. Like that looks like on one hand, people are
worried about, it's really difficult to run a full node. So we have to keep the
block size small, but then it's like, we'll use lightning. But then now it's very
difficult to run the lightning. So it's kind of like it ended up not.

1661
01:44:36,229 --> 01:44:57,229
It's just kind of like a damned if you do, damned if you don't kind of a funny
situation, but this is why we should be more pluralist. We should try more things.
We should not, we should let everyone try their weird thing. And that's a good
thing. That's what we want. We want lots of stuff to be tried. And, but that's not
the attitude that we currently have.

1662
01:44:57,229 --> 01:45:10,229
Well, that's like free speech, right? You're using speech, you're using code to
actually explore different options. And then you say, well, I found something and it
actually works. And then people learn from that and evolve it and grow it. And the
idea matures.

1663
01:45:10,229 --> 01:45:38,229
Satoshi didn't have to justify anything to everyone, anyone. He just, he just, he
just did his thing and released it. And it was totally misunderstood for years by
even the people who now are, it's like biggest supporters. But now in Bitcoin
development, it's kind of like you have to appease the dumbest people, laziest and
dumbest. You have to get full consensus from a hundred percent of the dumbest
community.

1664
01:45:38,229 --> 01:45:42,229
The dumbest person in the community must sign off.

1665
01:45:42,229 --> 01:45:57,229
And then you get the trolls and then you get the trolls and throw the trolls into
there and then who now cause more problems for you. It's just not scalable. It's
just not going to work. It's just not going to work. So that can kind of sort of
lead us into maybe the next section.

1666
01:45:57,229 --> 01:46:17,229
Last night, I went to a meeting with Mike Young. He's a friend of yours, I believe.
And, you know, we saw this meeting post. It's a layer two Asia. And the first thing
I did, I saw this and I thought, it's a scam. So I messed up.

1667
01:46:17,229 --> 01:46:27,229
I don't really necessarily know like what, I can't really understand what, you know,
I can't read Chinese. So it's always a little bit of an arm's length.

1668
01:46:27,229 --> 01:46:49,229
No, I mean, well, that's why I forwarded it to you. And I said, Paul, what's going
on here? I mean, like, and well, I went with my mate last night and it was a really
good talk. Mike does a really great job of communicating the Drivechain thing. You
know, he does it in bilingual. He does it in English and Chinese and nearly all of
it.

1669
01:46:49,229 --> 01:46:51,229
He can speak Cantonese as well.

1670
01:46:51,229 --> 01:47:04,229
Does he speak Cantonese? Yeah, well, he grew up and he was born in Hong Kong, but
spent a lot of his life in Canada, if I recall correctly. But yeah, he seems like a
pretty cool dude. I'm going to take him out for beers. It'll be great to get to know
him.

1671
01:47:04,229 --> 01:47:05,229
He is a good guy.

1672
01:47:05,229 --> 01:47:34,229
Well, I think, you know, I'm committed to bringing this idea into the world. And I
think that we're going to try a lot of things to demonstrate the effectiveness of
the idea.

1673
01:47:34,229 --> 01:48:00,229
And I think a lot of people have really underestimated, like, the idea. And so we're
going to try to just, I think the number one priority is to do what's best for the
end Bitcoin user, and not necessarily what is best for, you know, Bitcoin Twitter or
elite Bitcoin developers, or just people who have opinions.

1674
01:48:00,229 --> 01:48:01,229
The dumb people.

1675
01:48:01,229 --> 01:48:23,229
So we have, I think, like, that's the important thing to keep in mind. And I think
that we will be working on a lot of great stuff at the company and we're going to
put out a lot of great software for people to use. And I think people are going to
really enjoy it.

1676
01:48:23,229 --> 01:48:28,229
That was a non-answer poll.

1677
01:48:28,229 --> 01:48:45,229
Okay. All right. All right. So I get as far as you want to push that. And that's
fine. All right. Okay. So I thought we were going to get an hour conversation out of
that. So now I have to think of the next question. Okay, Paul.

1678
01:48:45,229 --> 01:48:46,229
I have a question. I have a question.

1679
01:48:46,229 --> 01:48:48,229
Good, good, good, good. Thank you.

1680
01:48:48,229 --> 01:49:03,229
The question is, why can't we have like a very bad, but still working version of a
prediction market scheme on a federation or custodial?

1681
01:49:03,229 --> 01:49:27,229
I think we should. I've always been in favor of this. No, I'm very excited about
this. I like to work on my own weird thing, which is Hivemind or whatever, which is
kind of like a lightning network thing where it's very convoluted and it's designed
to work under the most adversarial of cases. But I don't think, again, like, because
I believe in pluralism. So I think people should try all kinds of stuff.

1682
01:49:27,229 --> 01:49:32,229
But whenever people ask you, or maybe whenever I asked you, just say, oh, this will
not work.

1683
01:49:32,229 --> 01:49:41,229
Well, I don't think that it's, I don't think it will work, but I think people should
try. You said, why can't we have? I said, well, we could try it. Someone should do
it. I would be in favor of someone doing it.

1684
01:49:41,229 --> 01:49:54,229
But I think it's difficult. Running a prediction market is basically the same thing
as running a big exchange where you control. It's very, it's kind of like the
oracles are kind of like custodians.

1685
01:49:55,229 --> 01:50:08,229
They control the fate of all the money. And because what they can do is they can say
something that the prediction market, it should trade at 100%, but they can switch
it so that it trades at 0%. And the thing that didn't happen trades at 100% when it
should be zero.

1686
01:50:09,229 --> 01:50:27,229
So they can buy for zero the thing and then flip the oracle and extract all the
money from the prediction market. So the prediction market oracle is contents under
pressure. Single point of failure is extreme stress point for the oracle.

1687
01:50:27,229 --> 01:50:47,229
That is a key weakness. So if you're just going to say we have a federation, do it,
whatever, then it's going to be difficult if there's someone won't even want to bet
on it at first because they'll think what if tons of other people bet and now this
becomes the Gangnam style of contract.

1688
01:50:47,229 --> 01:51:03,229
Now there's tons of money here. Now they're going to rug pull and kill. So you need
it to kind of stay like at just the right size. You need a lot of stuff to happen.
It's bad if it becomes too popular. It's bad if it's not popular enough because you
think this whole scheme isn't viable.

1689
01:51:03,229 --> 01:51:24,229
So now they're going to rug, they're going to exit scam and rug pull. You need to
know a lot about who are these people. You need to know about, for example, their
time preference, so to speak. So if these people are going to get involved with you,
they open a prediction market system and they say we are going to be collecting
fees.

1690
01:51:25,229 --> 01:51:52,229
So your money is safe for those now. I'm going to do a little Marco Rubio there.
They say this thing is we're going to be, you can bet like $1,000 or $10,000 here up
front and we're going to be collecting all these transaction fees so you know that
we'll be totally honest. But then what if those people like, you know, it's like a
three or five multi-sig and you find that the three of those five people they have
now they have terminal brain cancer or something.

1691
01:51:53,229 --> 01:52:07,229
These are the kind of things that you actually need to know, like their time
preference may have switched or they're going to retire or something. So you kind of
need to know a lot about the same weaknesses of the Federation as I always said. You
need to know about the Federation and what's their deal. Like who are these people?
Are they trustworthy?

1692
01:52:07,229 --> 01:52:23,229
So these are the many disadvantages that Bitcoin Hivemind Truthcoin does not have.
It doesn't have any of those disadvantages. Instead it has a lot of convoluted blah,
blah, blah. But we're currently rewriting it in Rust. Everyone out there who loves
Rust will be happy to know.

1693
01:52:23,229 --> 01:52:32,229
That will make it succeed. Just in that in itself. I mean rewrite the world in Rust,
you're good.

1694
01:52:53,229 --> 01:53:11,229
What you really need is the prediction markets. There are certain questions that are
just so good that everyone will hate them. And these are questions like, would the
stock price go up if we fired the CEO? Would the GDP go up if we fired the political
party?

1695
01:53:11,229 --> 01:53:28,229
And those need to be, these really will become, it needs to be like an armored
vehicle where it's built, it's like a Ford F-150. It needs to be like really tough.
This is not a case where you can just be like, oh, blah, blah, blah, a bunch of
friends will trust each other.

1696
01:53:28,229 --> 01:53:43,229
But these things only work also if there's a lot of money on them. People that
really know the things, they won't just bet 10 Satoshis. It doesn't make sense. They
have to be safe.

1697
01:53:43,229 --> 01:53:57,229
Well, maybe I misunderstood you there, but in prediction market world, we want,
there's usually like two or three people who know the actual answer and we need to
make sure they get the answer out. They can make a ton of money.

1698
01:53:57,229 --> 01:54:03,229
Right. Yeah. That's what I'm trying to say. Yeah. It doesn't make any sense for a
person.

1699
01:54:03,229 --> 01:54:21,229
A ton of money. And we want them to also, we want them to make it privately and like
tax-free because that whatever you may feel about whatever, different countries and
their tax laws, it just happens to be a cold, hard fact of the universe that every
tax is a friction.

1700
01:54:21,229 --> 01:54:39,229
And of course being stigmatized as the winner is a friction. So we want to make sure
that everyone who contributes to the prediction market, they contribute their hard
won knowledge. We need to make sure they rise the totem pole in the form of
anonymous, untraceable eCash by winning big.

1701
01:54:39,229 --> 01:54:46,229
And they need to know when they make the bet that they will win, which is the whole
reason why. So the Oracle system needs to be very robust.

1702
01:54:46,229 --> 01:54:53,229
So this is the connection with the Zed Cash sidechain because then they can just
come back down to main chain.

1703
01:54:53,229 --> 01:55:10,229
Partially because they can switch it out. And what they can do is they could make
money on one chain, switch it for Zed Cash and then the coins would – partially
sidechains actually do this kind of already because sidechains you can swat.

1704
01:55:10,229 --> 01:55:33,229
Once you do cross-chain, you can do either – you can do HTLCs, which would link
them, but you can also more likely you would just do something like Coinbase or
SideShift where you would just slowly stream them across and swap them with no HTLC,
with just the reputation of the exchange and the exchanges, which does work because
that is a situation where they stand to make an ongoing enormous amount of money.

1705
01:55:34,229 --> 01:55:47,229
And so they would do that and you would send it to them, they send it to you. It's
like the coins you get on L1 are now completely different coins than what you won in
the prediction market sidechain.

1706
01:55:47,229 --> 01:55:58,229
So yeah, but privacy is a very important – like all important things, it has
enemies. It has the worst kind of people as its enemies. Every important thing.

1707
01:55:58,229 --> 01:56:14,229
Why are prediction markets not done in the fiat world? Like apparently the
governments always ban all the prediction markets. Why? And they never give an
explanation and people are not aware of why they have this – they specifically
target –

1708
01:56:14,229 --> 01:56:25,229
It's one of the most important questions in the world. I have researched it myself
in enormous detail, but I do not have a real answer for you that I could actually –

1709
01:56:25,229 --> 01:56:27,229
What do you have?

1710
01:56:27,229 --> 01:56:38,229
But I have some answers for you. Okay, so one is – it's not banned everywhere. In
the UK, it's encouraged, but is the UK just a fluke? I don't know, but in the UK –

1711
01:56:38,229 --> 01:56:41,229
Is it encouraged? Like it's just sports.

1712
01:56:41,229 --> 01:56:52,229
There's an idea that a gentleman – they get into a dispute and they do a wager on
it. That's seen as a classy thing. Correctly so. It's seen as a civilized thing to
do.

1713
01:56:52,229 --> 01:57:18,229
In America, America is hung up on its puritanism. America has various different
cultural strands. Some of them are these boorish strands that are like the South and
stuff, but the main one that come – where all of our laws and universities and stuff
comes from is this Boston, Harvard, Boston, New Haven, like whatever, kind of like –

1714
01:57:18,229 --> 01:57:20,229
Ivy League type thing.

1715
01:57:20,229 --> 01:57:37,229
And this culture is obsessed with puritanism, and puritanism is all about like
self-denial. Gambling is seen as just wrong. Gambling is just a useless thing. It's
a vice. It is pointless, so it doesn't – but yeah, there are some other ones. There
are some other reasons.

1716
01:57:37,229 --> 01:57:44,229
I have a whole list of – this is how you know that I don't have the real answer,
because I'm just going to shotgun all the reasons that I have ever found.

1717
01:57:45,229 --> 01:57:50,229
Yeah, but the governments, they always allow betting on sports. They never allow
betting on other things.

1718
01:57:50,229 --> 01:58:03,229
Betting on sports was forbidden in the United States until very recently. FanDuel
and GraphKings, which is great for me, they have – they did like a sprint Uber-style
attack where they just – they went for – they just rolled the dice.

1719
01:58:03,229 --> 01:58:10,229
They were like, this is technically illegal, but they just started in certain
states, and they just grew really big, and they became popular.

1720
01:58:10,229 --> 01:58:25,229
They started advertising, and then they said – they tried to crack down on it, and
then they just said, write to your congressperson and say, we're going to have to
close down DraftKings or whatever it is, and then they started to flip the states,
flip them into making it legal.

1721
01:58:25,229 --> 01:58:37,229
So then sometimes there's very curious things about like – I don't remember the
exact rules, but Connecticut has something really silly like it's only – it's
illegal if it's too small, if there's like less than one team or more than six
teams.

1722
01:58:37,229 --> 01:58:52,229
But it's – now it's like those weird carve-outs like – so it's all nonsense really,
but the – so it's not the case that it is – but there's other reasons why a bet
doesn't really – it's not treated the way it should be treated.

1723
01:58:52,229 --> 01:59:03,229
So like we could go back in time and say like the origin of the first democracy or
something, or the first printing press, and people would say, well, how could we get
knowledge from books?

1724
01:59:03,229 --> 01:59:11,229
We should just get it from the church or whatever, the king, or from God, or from my
own two eyes.

1725
01:59:11,229 --> 01:59:13,229
Why do we need books?

1726
01:59:14,229 --> 01:59:16,229
So it's not seen the way we would see it.

1727
01:59:16,229 --> 01:59:27,229
The way that you and I may be – the three of us see it perhaps is that the bet is
crucial because it means that you're not a bullshitter, and it also scales
enormously.

1728
01:59:27,229 --> 01:59:31,229
It can be broadcast to the whole world that this person is betting on this.

1729
01:59:31,229 --> 01:59:36,229
And unlike a conversation where you have lots of people who have to talk to each
other, the bet just stands by itself.

1730
01:59:36,229 --> 01:59:41,229
In fact, the prediction market gets more liquid the more people who look at it.

1731
01:59:41,229 --> 01:59:45,229
So it has the property that it scales very well.

1732
01:59:45,229 --> 01:59:53,229
It actually has good economies of scale, whereas something like a conversation does
not, which is why we have to have something like a Joe Rogan podcast.

1733
01:59:53,229 --> 01:59:56,229
We have to have like a logarithmic tree of people.

1734
01:59:56,229 --> 01:59:59,229
And so the bet is not seen that way now.

1735
01:59:59,229 --> 02:00:12,229
When people see a bet in the United States, they think of stuff like betting is
dominance because the wealthier person can afford to lose the bet, whereas the poor
person is shoved out.

1736
02:00:12,229 --> 02:00:15,229
They think like provinciality.

1737
02:00:15,229 --> 02:00:22,229
They think betting is something you're supposed to do on irrelevant things like
horse gambling.

1738
02:00:22,229 --> 02:00:28,229
So why would someone want to bet on something like whether or not the CEO – the
stock price would go up if we fired the CEO?

1739
02:00:28,229 --> 02:00:31,229
So there's a whole – like there's a whole – Robin Hanson wrote a whole thing.

1740
02:00:31,229 --> 02:00:34,229
We'll read it from the great – I'm going to try to find it.

1741
02:00:34,229 --> 02:00:36,229
The great man himself.

1742
02:00:36,229 --> 02:00:38,229
No, there's a problem with betting.

1743
02:00:38,229 --> 02:00:42,229
The greatest – but there's – I have a huge list.

1744
02:00:42,229 --> 02:00:45,229
Like one reason is a lot of people don't want the info to get out.

1745
02:00:45,229 --> 02:00:46,229
Yes.

1746
02:00:46,229 --> 02:00:59,229
So some people actually know that they know that – so, for example, the CEO, if the
CEO knows that he's lazy, someone comes in and says, listen, I've got this great
idea for this project.

1747
02:00:59,229 --> 02:01:02,229
It's going to improve the efficiency of the corporation.

1748
02:01:02,229 --> 02:01:04,229
And the CEO says, wow, great.

1749
02:01:04,229 --> 02:01:05,229
He says, yeah, it's really easy to do.

1750
02:01:05,229 --> 02:01:07,229
It's just like this one little equation.

1751
02:01:07,229 --> 02:01:08,229
You just let the people trade anonymously.

1752
02:01:08,229 --> 02:01:10,229
They can win money.

1753
02:01:10,229 --> 02:01:13,229
And they say, okay, great.

1754
02:01:13,229 --> 02:01:15,229
What's the idea?

1755
02:01:15,229 --> 02:01:19,229
And the idea is, well, we have to let people bet on whether or not the CEO should be
fired.

1756
02:01:19,229 --> 02:01:23,229
Now, whose permission do you have to get if you want to try this at Google or
something?

1757
02:01:23,229 --> 02:01:25,229
It's going to go through him.

1758
02:01:25,229 --> 02:01:27,229
So all the bad CEOs exit.

1759
02:01:27,229 --> 02:01:30,229
Now, it's an intriguing – it's another thing where it's like double entry
bookkeeping.

1760
02:01:30,229 --> 02:01:36,229
In a world where everyone does prediction markets, you would look very shady if you
didn't do it.

1761
02:01:36,229 --> 02:01:42,229
But if you're the first person to do it, then you look something like – it looks
like you – what have you –

1762
02:01:42,229 --> 02:01:43,229
You're the shady one.

1763
02:01:43,229 --> 02:01:44,229
Exactly.

1764
02:01:45,229 --> 02:01:47,229
It looks like you're very suspicious.

1765
02:01:47,229 --> 02:01:49,229
You say no one does double entry bookkeeping.

1766
02:01:49,229 --> 02:01:55,229
But someone says, listen, we're going to have – we're going to keep our books the
exact same way as everyone else.

1767
02:01:55,229 --> 02:01:58,229
And we're going to hire independent auditors to come in to make sure.

1768
02:01:58,229 --> 02:02:03,229
The first thought everyone is thinking is, like, why doesn't this guy trust our
accounting department?

1769
02:02:03,229 --> 02:02:10,229
Like, surely our great friend, our friend Jeff, the accountant, he would never lie
to us.

1770
02:02:10,229 --> 02:02:13,229
So people would be like, why are they doing that?

1771
02:02:14,229 --> 02:02:15,229
Anyway, okay.

1772
02:02:15,229 --> 02:02:16,229
Oh, this is another good one.

1773
02:02:16,229 --> 02:02:20,229
This is one from Robin Hanson that I forgot from his list.

1774
02:02:20,229 --> 02:02:21,229
Okay.

1775
02:02:21,229 --> 02:02:22,229
Read it.

1776
02:02:22,229 --> 02:02:24,229
It's a sincerity.

1777
02:02:24,229 --> 02:02:25,229
I'm going to read it to you.

1778
02:02:25,229 --> 02:02:26,229
It's great.

1779
02:02:26,229 --> 02:02:32,229
In many subcultures, it looks bad to care a lot about most any topic of casual
conversation.

1780
02:02:32,229 --> 02:02:37,229
Because most people just are just having – they're just making small talks.

1781
02:02:37,229 --> 02:02:45,229
Such passion suggests that you just don't get the usual social functions of such
conversations.

1782
02:02:45,229 --> 02:02:48,229
So people are just conversing and they just have fun.

1783
02:02:48,229 --> 02:02:50,229
We're not – we're just having fun.

1784
02:02:50,229 --> 02:02:52,229
We're just – because we want to hang out.

1785
02:02:52,229 --> 02:02:54,229
It's something to do on a Thursday night.

1786
02:02:54,229 --> 02:02:55,229
Hang out with your friends.

1787
02:02:55,229 --> 02:02:59,229
Most people aren't supposed to actually care about whether or not an idea is true.

1788
02:02:59,229 --> 02:03:03,229
Because then we would all have to care about whether or not our ideas were true.

1789
02:03:03,229 --> 02:03:06,229
And then it would be like, you know, that would be terrible.

1790
02:03:06,229 --> 02:03:10,229
So conflict, here's a great one.

1791
02:03:10,229 --> 02:03:15,229
This is why people bullshitted about lightning before.

1792
02:03:15,229 --> 02:03:17,229
It's coming full circle.

1793
02:03:17,229 --> 02:03:22,229
When we speak, it's seen as signaling our allegiance to something.

1794
02:03:22,229 --> 02:03:30,229
So if you – you're supposed to be like – you're not supposed to make too much of a
big – this is a very similar idea.

1795
02:03:30,229 --> 02:03:32,229
You're not supposed to make too much of a big deal about something.

1796
02:03:33,229 --> 02:03:38,229
But when you bet against someone, it's like you're saying, no, I'm – we aren't just
having like some kind of disagreement.

1797
02:03:38,229 --> 02:03:40,229
I'm calling you out.

1798
02:03:40,229 --> 02:03:43,229
I say you are going to be definitely wrong.

1799
02:03:43,229 --> 02:03:50,229
And this – I think he's right about this as well, which is that most people don't
really want the stakes to be that high.

1800
02:03:50,229 --> 02:03:52,229
They were just having a fun little conversation.

1801
02:03:52,229 --> 02:03:57,229
And they think any conversation – like what if you had a conversation with, you
know, anyone who's like a high –

1802
02:03:57,229 --> 02:03:59,229
you had a conversation with like Barack Obama.

1803
02:03:59,229 --> 02:04:02,229
You could get Barack Obama for like the podcast or something.

1804
02:04:02,229 --> 02:04:06,229
You're just kind of thinking like I'm talking to Barack Obama or whatever.

1805
02:04:06,229 --> 02:04:08,229
You don't even really care what's going on.

1806
02:04:08,229 --> 02:04:15,229
But if someone says you are wrong about this, that's big.

1807
02:04:15,229 --> 02:04:17,229
Yes.

1808
02:04:17,229 --> 02:04:19,229
So, yeah, there's lots of these.

1809
02:04:19,229 --> 02:04:20,229
Oh, this is another one.

1810
02:04:20,229 --> 02:04:22,229
He's got a whole list here, but some of these are not that great.

1811
02:04:22,229 --> 02:04:27,229
Like I don't – I think – I appreciate his list, but I'm not going to go to bat for
some of these.

1812
02:04:27,229 --> 02:04:29,229
But here's another one, greed.

1813
02:04:29,229 --> 02:04:35,229
We often try to give the impression that we talk mainly to benefit our listeners.

1814
02:04:35,229 --> 02:04:37,229
This is a sacred activity.

1815
02:04:37,229 --> 02:04:42,229
So this is – he's saying like, you know, when we talk, we're trying to make it seem
like we're such a great guy to have around.

1816
02:04:42,229 --> 02:04:44,229
You always want to hear Paul's opinion.

1817
02:04:44,229 --> 02:04:45,229
What a smart guy.

1818
02:04:45,229 --> 02:04:53,229
But then if you offer to bet, it makes it look like you are getting something
selfish and private out of this.

1819
02:04:53,229 --> 02:04:56,229
So you're an untrustworthy guy.

1820
02:04:56,229 --> 02:04:57,229
Because think about it.

1821
02:04:57,229 --> 02:04:58,229
If you're going to win money betting.

1822
02:04:58,892 --> 02:05:02,892
You kind of want to trick everyone into thinking that, oh, no, Hillary Clinton
really won't win the election.

1823
02:05:02,892 --> 02:05:06,892
And then you place the bet and then you're like, oh, actually, I know that she will.

1824
02:05:06,892 --> 02:05:13,892
This makes you into kind of like a weird person, you know. These are many reasons.

1825
02:05:13,892 --> 02:05:20,892
But yeah, he's got a whole little list here. But this is not just – there's much
more to it than that.

1826
02:05:21,892 --> 02:05:26,892
I think a lot of it is that a lot of people don't want – like the person you would
have to get permission from is –

1827
02:05:26,892 --> 02:05:31,892
like you get permission from the government. What if I said we can have – it's the
exact same thing as with the CEO.

1828
02:05:31,892 --> 02:05:35,892
I say we have this prediction market. It works great. They would say, well –

1829
02:05:35,892 --> 02:05:38,892
Do you think the government has thought of that?

1830
02:05:38,892 --> 02:05:44,892
I think it's – I think something like this has happened on like a subconscious
level.

1831
02:05:44,892 --> 02:05:50,892
There's one – there was another thing called the policy analysis market that was
like in whatever, 2003 or something.

1832
02:05:50,892 --> 02:05:57,892
And the guy who made the website, he did what every website person does.

1833
02:05:57,892 --> 02:06:04,892
Similar to this, the layer two infographic. It's like they're trying to make –
they're thinking how can I make this –

1834
02:06:04,892 --> 02:06:08,892
how can I get this out here, you know. I've got to get my message out.

1835
02:06:08,892 --> 02:06:18,892
So they highlighted some contracts that were like people betting on will this guy
get assassinated or how many soldiers will die or something.

1836
02:06:18,892 --> 02:06:24,892
So they were like this is going to really pop. This is going to go all around the
internet, which it did.

1837
02:06:24,892 --> 02:06:28,892
And people don't like – they become very uncomfortable.

1838
02:06:28,892 --> 02:06:35,892
If you bet on certain things, there's this idea of taboo trade-offs where a
trade-off is so bad you shouldn't even be thinking about it.

1839
02:06:36,892 --> 02:06:38,892
Shouldn't even be thinking about doing it.

1840
02:06:38,892 --> 02:06:48,892
And one is, of course, if you're making money when people die, this makes it kind of
seem as though your loyalty is suddenly now divided between things that we all want,

1841
02:06:48,892 --> 02:06:51,892
sacred things we all want, and like you can make money.

1842
02:06:51,892 --> 02:06:56,892
So that was a bad – and that was a bad day for prediction markets because people
called their senator.

1843
02:06:56,892 --> 02:07:01,892
That one guy basically killed the – what was that guy's name?

1844
02:07:02,892 --> 02:07:07,892
I get a multiple choice, but that one guy basically killed the project.

1845
02:07:07,892 --> 02:07:09,892
The guy who was very pro-Snowden.

1846
02:07:09,892 --> 02:07:13,892
And I was like, great. I still hate you.

1847
02:07:13,892 --> 02:07:18,892
But the – I don't remember his name. I'm happier for it.

1848
02:07:18,892 --> 02:07:20,892
I wish I could just forget about him completely.

1849
02:07:20,892 --> 02:07:27,892
But they killed this idea, and so that's something where they made it illegal.

1850
02:07:27,892 --> 02:07:42,892
But this was – again, it's only because it works so well that it – I think there's
some kind of underlying overlap between why it's so stigmatized and why it is
actually one of the greatest ideas in the world.

1851
02:07:46,892 --> 02:07:48,892
Is the code base open?

1852
02:07:50,892 --> 02:07:51,892
Of course.

1853
02:07:51,892 --> 02:07:52,892
Yeah, Bitcoin Hivemind.

1854
02:07:52,892 --> 02:07:53,892
We have that.

1855
02:07:53,892 --> 02:07:54,892
The C++ version is out there.

1856
02:07:54,892 --> 02:07:58,892
We'll wait until the Rust version works before releasing it.

1857
02:07:58,892 --> 02:07:59,892
Okay, okay.

1858
02:07:59,892 --> 02:08:00,892
We're all –

1859
02:08:00,892 --> 02:08:04,892
And will it be tied in with the Drivechains?

1860
02:08:04,892 --> 02:08:07,892
Yeah, of course. It will be a sidechain, and it will be a BIP300 sidechain.

1861
02:08:07,892 --> 02:08:12,892
And of course, anything – the cool thing is it's also open source for free.

1862
02:08:12,892 --> 02:08:14,892
That's why you're doing Drivechains, right?

1863
02:08:14,892 --> 02:08:17,892
Yes, this is the whole reason why I got into sidechains at all.

1864
02:08:17,892 --> 02:08:19,892
We don't need anything else.

1865
02:08:19,892 --> 02:08:21,892
The prediction market idea.

1866
02:08:21,892 --> 02:08:25,892
And I just thought that Blockstream would do it, but they never did, and that's the
story.

1867
02:08:25,892 --> 02:08:28,892
And that's the story I've always told for eight years, and that's the truth.

1868
02:08:28,892 --> 02:08:30,892
That's how I got into it.

1869
02:08:30,892 --> 02:08:39,892
But it wasn't really like I got into it, and then I kind of realized, like, this is
a winning idea, and all the arguments against it are nonsense.

1870
02:08:39,892 --> 02:08:40,892
Yeah.

1871
02:08:40,892 --> 02:08:53,892
And then it wasn't until – let me tell you a lightning story when I really started
to think, oh, I must double down on sidechains because it's about custodial
lightning.

1872
02:08:53,892 --> 02:08:57,892
And I believe this is a February 2018, something like that.

1873
02:08:57,892 --> 02:08:59,892
Hmm.

1874
02:08:59,892 --> 02:09:05,892
So this was – I mean, it was like, well, now this would be five years ago.

1875
02:09:05,892 --> 02:09:07,892
So what was the story?

1876
02:09:07,892 --> 02:09:12,892
The story is I was hanging out with some Bitcoiners.

1877
02:09:12,892 --> 02:09:16,892
It hadn't quite, like – there was, like, a mixed group.

1878
02:09:16,892 --> 02:09:29,892
This is a weird situation where you had some, like, Bitcoin Cash open-minded, large
blocker-ish, and then some who were just like, it's all of my Bitcoin Cash,
whatever.

1879
02:09:29,892 --> 02:09:33,892
So it was, like, a mixed – it was a big, huge party.

1880
02:09:34,892 --> 02:09:41,892
And this new wallet had come out, and I believe that it was – was it Blue Wallet or
was it Wallet of Satoshi?

1881
02:09:41,892 --> 02:09:44,892
It kind of doesn't matter, but it was one of those.

1882
02:09:44,892 --> 02:09:48,892
And people said – this was going around, this big party.

1883
02:09:48,892 --> 02:09:50,892
This was a huge party.

1884
02:09:50,892 --> 02:09:54,892
This was, like, a big event at this giant – we'd taken over this huge hotel.

1885
02:09:54,892 --> 02:09:56,892
And it was going around.

1886
02:09:56,892 --> 02:09:57,892
We were having fun.

1887
02:09:57,892 --> 02:09:58,892
We were drinking, whatever.

1888
02:09:58,892 --> 02:10:01,892
They're like, hey, there's this new lightning app on your phone.

1889
02:10:01,892 --> 02:10:02,892
It's great.

1890
02:10:02,892 --> 02:10:04,892
I think it was – if I had to bet my life on it –

1891
02:10:04,892 --> 02:10:05,892
Blue Wallet.

1892
02:10:05,892 --> 02:10:06,892
I would say Blue Wallet.

1893
02:10:06,892 --> 02:10:07,892
Is that it?

1894
02:10:07,892 --> 02:10:08,892
I hope that was it.

1895
02:10:08,892 --> 02:10:11,892
So they said, whatever it was, this was it.

1896
02:10:11,892 --> 02:10:16,892
And then it was, like, people were like, oh, this is great.

1897
02:10:16,892 --> 02:10:17,892
Lightning is amazing.

1898
02:10:17,892 --> 02:10:18,892
I love lightning.

1899
02:10:18,892 --> 02:10:20,892
This is the beginning of the I love lightning.

1900
02:10:20,892 --> 02:10:24,892
Like, it was spreading like wildfire around this party.

1901
02:10:24,892 --> 02:10:30,892
And someone – they were like – there was enormous peer pressure to install this.

1902
02:10:30,892 --> 02:10:31,892
So I was like, okay, wait a minute.

1903
02:10:31,892 --> 02:10:33,892
I don't want to install something on my phone.

1904
02:10:33,892 --> 02:10:34,892
I'm, like, a Bitcoiner.

1905
02:10:34,892 --> 02:10:37,892
I'm not just going to – but then the peer pressure was so much.

1906
02:10:37,892 --> 02:10:39,892
I installed it on my phone.

1907
02:10:39,892 --> 02:10:41,892
And I was like, receive – okay.

1908
02:10:41,892 --> 02:10:43,892
I was like, I installed it on my phone.

1909
02:10:43,892 --> 02:10:46,892
I know that I had not unlocked any phone because I know how lightning works.

1910
02:10:46,892 --> 02:10:48,892
I know I have to open a channel, blah, blah, blah.

1911
02:10:48,892 --> 02:10:50,892
Now, Fiat Jaffa probably knows where this is going.

1912
02:10:50,892 --> 02:10:55,892
Where I downloaded this wallet and I was like, hit receive.

1913
02:10:55,892 --> 02:10:58,892
And in my head I was like, question mark.

1914
02:10:59,892 --> 02:11:04,892
I held up the QR code and that person sent me, like, 200 sats or something.

1915
02:11:04,892 --> 02:11:05,892
And I got it.

1916
02:11:05,892 --> 02:11:08,892
And they're like, you see, it confirms instantly.

1917
02:11:08,892 --> 02:11:11,892
And I said, oh, did you open a channel?

1918
02:11:11,892 --> 02:11:15,892
Because I was like, I didn't open a channel.

1919
02:11:15,892 --> 02:11:17,892
So –

1920
02:11:17,892 --> 02:11:18,892
It's custodial, right?

1921
02:11:18,892 --> 02:11:21,892
And they were like, what's a channel?

1922
02:11:21,892 --> 02:11:23,892
And this is a Bitcoiner.

1923
02:11:23,892 --> 02:11:25,892
And then I was like, is it custodial?

1924
02:11:25,892 --> 02:11:29,892
And then they were like, what's custodial?

1925
02:11:29,892 --> 02:11:31,892
So the –

1926
02:11:31,892 --> 02:11:34,892
And it was apparent that everyone at the party didn't know what was going on.

1927
02:11:34,892 --> 02:11:37,892
But it was kind of like – so we had multiple levels of, like –

1928
02:11:37,892 --> 02:11:41,892
The first level is custodial is much worse than real lightning.

1929
02:11:41,892 --> 02:11:42,892
Okay?

1930
02:11:42,892 --> 02:11:44,892
But then lower –

1931
02:11:44,892 --> 02:11:53,892
Another thing is it's terrible if the wallet won't tell you in advance that whether
or not it is custodial or not.

1932
02:11:53,892 --> 02:11:59,892
And then the third level, even worse than that, is the end user doesn't even know
the difference.

1933
02:11:59,892 --> 02:12:02,892
They have no idea what's going on.

1934
02:12:02,892 --> 02:12:05,892
So that's when I was like, oh.

1935
02:12:05,892 --> 02:12:07,892
I was like, I guess this –

1936
02:12:07,892 --> 02:12:11,892
I was like, this seems like it's headed for trouble.

1937
02:12:11,892 --> 02:12:14,892
Which, of course, it was.

1938
02:12:14,892 --> 02:12:18,892
So that was my thought.

1939
02:12:18,892 --> 02:12:20,892
That was when I was kind of like, oh.

1940
02:12:20,892 --> 02:12:24,892
I kind of just got involved with sidechains because I thought prediction markets are
cool.

1941
02:12:24,892 --> 02:12:26,892
And then I was analyzing the arguments against them.

1942
02:12:26,892 --> 02:12:28,892
And then in 2016, I published.

1943
02:12:28,892 --> 02:12:30,892
And I was at scaling three.

1944
02:12:30,892 --> 02:12:33,892
And I was like, by the way, we could scale with sidechains.

1945
02:12:33,892 --> 02:12:35,892
People say that you can't, but they're wrong.

1946
02:12:35,892 --> 02:12:36,892
You easily can.

1947
02:12:36,892 --> 02:12:38,892
You just ignore everything.

1948
02:12:38,892 --> 02:12:41,892
Then after that, people said, well, what about mining?

1949
02:12:41,892 --> 02:12:42,892
Blah, blah, blah.

1950
02:12:42,892 --> 02:12:45,892
So that's when I invented Blind Merged Mining in January 2017.

1951
02:12:45,892 --> 02:12:47,892
And then I was kind of just working on it.

1952
02:12:47,892 --> 02:12:49,892
I was kind of heads down working on that.

1953
02:12:49,892 --> 02:12:51,892
And I was working on other stuff too.

1954
02:12:51,892 --> 02:12:53,892
I like to just write stuff on my blog.

1955
02:12:53,892 --> 02:12:55,892
I just do whatever I want.

1956
02:12:55,892 --> 02:12:59,892
So I was doing, like, different stuff.

1957
02:12:59,892 --> 02:13:01,892
I had only published the idea of DriveChat.

1958
02:13:01,892 --> 02:13:07,892
I had been working on the prediction markets thing until, like, late 2016 or
something.

1959
02:13:07,892 --> 02:13:10,892
And it wasn't until 2017 that I invented Blind Merged Mining.

1960
02:13:10,892 --> 02:13:14,892
And then I decided, okay, we'll actually build this.

1961
02:13:14,892 --> 02:13:16,892
So we kind of just started.

1962
02:13:16,892 --> 02:13:18,892
So I was like, okay, I'll work on this.

1963
02:13:18,892 --> 02:13:20,892
We'll see what other people do.

1964
02:13:20,892 --> 02:13:22,892
And then that was 2018, right after.

1965
02:13:22,892 --> 02:13:27,892
And I was like, oh, I guess, you know, lightning is what's going to happen with
lightning?

1966
02:13:27,892 --> 02:13:32,892
So then other people would say, oh, channel factories, L2.

1967
02:13:32,892 --> 02:13:37,892
And kind of, again, everyone, this is the most important thing to keep in mind.

1968
02:13:37,892 --> 02:13:39,892
Everyone is a bullshitter.

1969
02:13:39,892 --> 02:13:42,892
So they would just say L2.

1970
02:13:42,892 --> 02:13:46,892
And I would be like, okay, like, I guess that means something, someone.

1971
02:13:46,892 --> 02:13:48,892
I'm working on my own thing.

1972
02:13:48,892 --> 02:13:52,892
It's not later that you realize, okay, L2 means, like, it's kind of cool.

1973
02:13:52,892 --> 02:13:54,892
But L2 means that we can't do the punishment.

1974
02:13:54,892 --> 02:14:02,892
So that means that it's a heads, I win, tails, I break even situation, which is
probably not good.

1975
02:14:02,892 --> 02:14:09,892
So it probably makes these things are, like, not only not helping, but many of them
are just useless.

1976
02:14:09,892 --> 02:14:11,892
But then with no L2.

1977
02:14:11,892 --> 02:14:20,892
The idea of L2 is that would be so much simpler that you could do these channel
factories and other stuff on top.

1978
02:14:20,892 --> 02:14:21,892
It would be much easier.

1979
02:14:21,892 --> 02:14:26,892
But then someone realized that you can't really do it in the simpler way.

1980
02:14:26,892 --> 02:14:38,892
Because something, something, the time lock interferes with the channel updates in a
way that you have to introduce a bunch of complexity for it to work.

1981
02:14:38,892 --> 02:14:40,892
Yeah, I may not remember exactly what it is.

1982
02:14:40,892 --> 02:14:46,892
But it's something, I remember Matt Corallo had a thing where there's, like, this
endless blowup of, like, factorial states or something.

1983
02:14:46,892 --> 02:14:53,892
That is, like, unfixable with the channel factories.

1984
02:14:53,892 --> 02:14:56,892
I shouldn't say stuff like that without just, but I.

1985
02:14:56,892 --> 02:14:58,892
I don't know.

1986
02:14:58,892 --> 02:15:00,892
Well.

1987
02:15:00,892 --> 02:15:01,892
The factories already don't work.

1988
02:15:02,892 --> 02:15:07,892
Within the factory, you can create or destroy as many channels as you like.

1989
02:15:07,892 --> 02:15:14,892
However, if anyone wants to settle or you need to get everyone to sign to, like,
refresh it or something.

1990
02:15:14,892 --> 02:15:21,892
If any one of those people just dies or falls asleep or something, the whole thing
is ruined.

1991
02:15:21,892 --> 02:15:26,892
And the idea of onboarding people via channel factories is horrendous.

1992
02:15:26,892 --> 02:15:30,892
Because when you onboard them, you're going to start with zero coins.

1993
02:15:30,892 --> 02:15:36,892
So now they have no reason not to just, not to just, like, forget about this or lose
their password or whatever.

1994
02:15:36,892 --> 02:15:40,892
And I don't think that idea is viable at all.

1995
02:15:40,892 --> 02:15:42,892
I think that idea is not good.

1996
02:15:42,892 --> 02:15:43,892
I think.

1997
02:15:43,892 --> 02:15:46,892
No, onboarding people, it's always, I think it's always said it's just custodial.

1998
02:15:46,892 --> 02:15:52,892
Like, because they're like, if you have five people and you onboard a sixth, that
sixth has no control of anything.

1999
02:15:52,892 --> 02:15:57,892
Because the funds are on a multisig of the first five.

2000
02:15:57,892 --> 02:15:58,892
Of the first five.

2001
02:15:58,892 --> 02:16:02,892
Yeah, the sixth person doesn't have any control.

2002
02:16:02,892 --> 02:16:04,892
So I think.

2003
02:16:04,892 --> 02:16:10,892
It might be another MEV thing where I went like five moves ahead and just assumed
that it was going somewhere.

2004
02:16:11,892 --> 02:16:17,892
I thought when they said onboarding by channel factories, they mean like groups of
people, 50 people will all join at a time.

2005
02:16:17,892 --> 02:16:19,892
And they'll be like one Michael Saylor.

2006
02:16:19,892 --> 02:16:23,892
And he'll be like opening heroically channels like 49 and then him.

2007
02:16:23,892 --> 02:16:25,892
And they'll just be everyone else will have zero.

2008
02:16:25,892 --> 02:16:27,892
And then he'll have like a lot of this stuff.

2009
02:16:27,892 --> 02:16:29,892
And that's how it'll all be.

2010
02:16:29,892 --> 02:16:32,892
The onboarding will be like 43 bytes per person times 50.

2011
02:16:32,892 --> 02:16:36,892
And you just, you go on, you go on like a calendar link.

2012
02:16:36,892 --> 02:16:39,892
You schedule an appointment to open your channel with Michael Saylor.

2013
02:16:39,892 --> 02:16:43,892
And he fronts you the liquidity, you know.

2014
02:16:43,892 --> 02:16:46,892
Like that's where I thought people were going with it.

2015
02:16:46,892 --> 02:16:53,892
Even still, though, even in the absurd situation within the limit, which is
literally not achievable.

2016
02:16:53,892 --> 02:16:56,892
But of like the entire block always being used.

2017
02:16:56,892 --> 02:16:58,892
The channels last forever.

2018
02:16:58,892 --> 02:17:01,892
They never need to be refreshed.

2019
02:17:01,892 --> 02:17:08,892
The most absurd situation where every single Bitcoin block is just one channel
factory being opened with one Michael Saylor super rich Bitcoiner.

2020
02:17:08,892 --> 02:17:13,892
Every time, every 10 minutes, 24-7.

2021
02:17:13,892 --> 02:17:18,892
Still, it takes like six and a half years or something to onboard 8 billion people.

2022
02:17:18,892 --> 02:17:20,892
But that thing is nowhere near achievable.

2023
02:17:20,892 --> 02:17:23,892
The true rate is like one tenth.

2024
02:17:23,892 --> 02:17:25,892
It would take like 60 years or something.

2025
02:17:25,892 --> 02:17:26,892
It's not.

2026
02:17:26,892 --> 02:17:27,892
For 8 billion people.

2027
02:17:27,892 --> 02:17:30,892
Some people say, oh, we don't need 8 billion people.

2028
02:17:30,892 --> 02:17:36,892
Some people say, like, for example, another thing Michael Saylor has said many times
is that everyone will have thousands of channels.

2029
02:17:36,892 --> 02:17:41,892
So that's another thing where you're like doesn't really know that every channel is
a risk.

2030
02:17:41,892 --> 02:17:43,892
Every channel is a headache.

2031
02:17:43,892 --> 02:17:45,892
Every channel divides liquidity.

2032
02:17:45,892 --> 02:17:47,892
It's like so.

2033
02:17:47,892 --> 02:17:51,892
These are other things that he said, so.

2034
02:17:51,892 --> 02:17:52,892
But again, he's new.

2035
02:17:52,892 --> 02:17:57,892
He knows an awful lot for someone who's only like a third year Bitcoin or something.

2036
02:17:57,892 --> 02:18:02,892
So with all the good stuff on layer two, you've created an organization called Layer
2, right?

2037
02:18:02,892 --> 02:18:03,892
LayerTwo Labs.

2038
02:18:04,892 --> 02:18:07,892
My view is that the sidechain is the real Layer 2, in fact.

2039
02:18:07,892 --> 02:18:08,892
What's the Layer 3?

2040
02:18:08,892 --> 02:18:17,892
And I think that actually people will ultimately come around to that point of view
and they will be and then people look up old videos and they'll just they won't
believe.

2041
02:18:17,892 --> 02:18:19,892
They'll be like, what was going on?

2042
02:18:19,892 --> 02:18:22,892
It'll be like when we look up old like pets.com or something.

2043
02:18:22,892 --> 02:18:27,892
The Internet was.

2044
02:18:27,892 --> 02:18:28,892
Yes, yes.

2045
02:18:28,892 --> 02:18:32,892
But by that stage, you're in the water, you know, you're in the environment.

2046
02:18:32,892 --> 02:18:43,892
And what what is you just know what what is around you and people can't see that
they don't have the creative ability to forecast and bring that into their lives and
and change the perspectives.

2047
02:18:43,892 --> 02:18:44,892
They can't do that.

2048
02:18:44,892 --> 02:18:45,892
They can't.

2049
02:18:45,892 --> 02:18:47,892
It's certainly not a foregone conclusion that I'll succeed.

2050
02:18:47,892 --> 02:18:48,892
Oh, sure.

2051
02:18:49,892 --> 02:18:56,892
But I think like the relative costs and benefits are just like very, very favorable.

2052
02:18:56,892 --> 02:18:59,892
Like, I don't understand why.

2053
02:18:59,892 --> 02:19:04,892
The miners can steal is very dumb because it's not your coins that can be stolen.

2054
02:19:04,892 --> 02:19:06,892
So let these other people take the risk.

2055
02:19:06,892 --> 02:19:09,892
And it's also like.

2056
02:19:09,892 --> 02:19:18,892
It's just clear to me that people have so much disagreement over what the L1 block
chain should contain, and people are so creative.

2057
02:19:18,892 --> 02:19:25,892
Individual software developer, if they were empowered to do that, they can create
their own piece of software.

2058
02:19:25,892 --> 02:19:31,892
They could be the CEO of their own sidechain with no bureaucracy.

2059
02:19:31,892 --> 02:19:37,892
You know, just think of how different it would have been for a Jeremy Rubin or for
Roger Ver or for Vitalik or for whatever.

2060
02:19:37,892 --> 02:19:39,892
Riccardo Spogni or whatever, anything.

2061
02:19:39,892 --> 02:19:41,892
So it would be very, very different.

2062
02:19:41,892 --> 02:19:48,892
And the value they generate, the value they generate just just works towards the
ecosystem.

2063
02:19:48,892 --> 02:19:49,892
Yeah.

2064
02:19:49,892 --> 02:19:50,892
Everyone like in the same tent.

2065
02:19:50,892 --> 02:19:51,892
We want network effects.

2066
02:19:51,892 --> 02:19:52,892
We want Metcalfe's law.

2067
02:19:52,892 --> 02:19:53,892
We want positivity.

2068
02:19:53,892 --> 02:19:54,892
We want creativity.

2069
02:19:54,892 --> 02:19:55,892
We want risk taking.

2070
02:19:55,892 --> 02:19:56,892
Yeah.

2071
02:19:56,892 --> 02:19:58,892
It's just obvious to me that nothing.

2072
02:19:58,892 --> 02:20:03,892
What what in the world ever worked that had to be justified?

2073
02:20:03,892 --> 02:20:08,892
It's the things that work are always just someone has the idea and they just try the
idea.

2074
02:20:08,892 --> 02:20:10,892
And often it's ridiculed.

2075
02:20:10,892 --> 02:20:15,892
So if this kind of means like if your idea is not being ridiculed, it probably
sucks.

2076
02:20:15,892 --> 02:20:20,892
And that is partly, again, why I just think like the idea is clearly good.

2077
02:20:21,892 --> 02:20:30,892
The arguments against it, all of which were easy to foresee in the original November
2015 post.

2078
02:20:30,892 --> 02:20:32,892
You could foresee that.

2079
02:20:32,892 --> 02:20:33,892
I said, well, this is why the mine.

2080
02:20:33,892 --> 02:20:36,892
It looks like the miners can steal, but they really they really can't.

2081
02:20:36,892 --> 02:20:38,892
They really won't.

2082
02:20:38,892 --> 02:20:45,892
And then the mining thing also, again, like if people actually explain what they
when they explained what it was, they had a problem with.

2083
02:20:45,892 --> 02:20:47,892
It was very easy for me to just come up with Blind Merged Mining.

2084
02:20:47,892 --> 02:20:51,892
The reason why I can't solve their other problems is because they the other problems
aren't real.

2085
02:20:51,892 --> 02:20:52,892
Yeah.

2086
02:20:52,892 --> 02:20:54,892
It's just fabricated nonsense.

2087
02:20:54,892 --> 02:20:55,892
It's just like an endless.

2088
02:20:55,892 --> 02:20:56,892
It's like a chat.

2089
02:20:56,892 --> 02:20:59,892
GPT one.

2090
02:20:59,892 --> 02:21:04,892
It's going up and there's nothing there.

2091
02:21:04,892 --> 02:21:05,892
Nothing there.

2092
02:21:05,892 --> 02:21:07,892
Indeed.

2093
02:21:07,892 --> 02:21:08,892
Yeah.

2094
02:21:08,892 --> 02:21:10,892
Yeah.

2095
02:21:10,892 --> 02:21:12,892
I mean, I'd love to see a world.

2096
02:21:13,892 --> 02:21:16,892
I'd love to see a world where you've got like a small, very small core base.

2097
02:21:16,892 --> 02:21:22,892
Maybe, for example, using Lib Corp, Lib Bitcoin, you strip out all the nonsense.

2098
02:21:22,892 --> 02:21:24,892
You get none of that taproot nonsense.

2099
02:21:24,892 --> 02:21:26,892
You just strip it down to bare essentials.

2100
02:21:26,892 --> 02:21:28,892
You've got one addressing scheme.

2101
02:21:28,892 --> 02:21:30,892
You can transfer value to and from.

2102
02:21:30,892 --> 02:21:34,892
And then you specialize in lifting up and down into into sidechains.

2103
02:21:35,892 --> 02:21:41,892
And you keep the core base as simple as possible so that people can understand it
and maintain it.

2104
02:21:41,892 --> 02:21:42,892
Maybe.

2105
02:21:42,892 --> 02:21:43,892
Yeah.

2106
02:21:43,892 --> 02:21:44,892
And then from there.

2107
02:21:44,892 --> 02:21:45,892
I think taproot.

2108
02:21:45,892 --> 02:21:48,892
I think it was a mistake to spend so much time on taproot.

2109
02:21:48,892 --> 02:21:51,892
But again, I'm a pluralist, so I think we should just do everything.

2110
02:21:51,892 --> 02:21:53,892
But, yeah, I don't understand.

2111
02:21:53,892 --> 02:21:54,892
Taproot.

2112
02:21:54,892 --> 02:21:56,892
You could see the adoption was very, very low.

2113
02:21:57,892 --> 02:22:06,892
We seem to be specializing in things that, again, it's the whole thing has evolved
away from.

2114
02:22:07,892 --> 02:22:09,892
They want to inspire boredom.

2115
02:22:09,892 --> 02:22:10,892
Sorry?

2116
02:22:10,892 --> 02:22:11,892
To people.

2117
02:22:11,892 --> 02:22:12,892
Say again?

2118
02:22:12,892 --> 02:22:13,892
Sorry?

2119
02:22:13,892 --> 02:22:14,892
No, no.

2120
02:22:14,892 --> 02:22:17,892
They want to inspire boredom, like the most boring things.

2121
02:22:17,892 --> 02:22:18,892
Yeah, exactly.

2122
02:22:18,892 --> 02:22:24,892
It's not like it's because if something's boring or very convoluted, it won't be
criticized.

2123
02:22:24,892 --> 02:22:25,892
So think about it.

2124
02:22:25,892 --> 02:22:27,892
It was so difficult to criticize taproot.

2125
02:22:27,892 --> 02:22:30,892
So that is that's how it evolved into being the thing that was tried.

2126
02:22:31,892 --> 02:22:37,892
So whereas my thing, it's it is easier to criticize.

2127
02:22:37,892 --> 02:22:41,892
That's because it's actually part of it is simple enough for people to actually
understand.

2128
02:22:41,892 --> 02:22:43,892
And they so.

2129
02:22:43,892 --> 02:22:46,892
So I don't really think people understand.

2130
02:22:46,892 --> 02:22:48,892
I think most people don't understand it.

2131
02:22:48,892 --> 02:22:52,892
I think people think I've seen it many times, like people supporting the idea.

2132
02:22:52,892 --> 02:22:59,892
And they think that somehow the merge mining is related to the security of the
coins.

2133
02:23:00,892 --> 02:23:02,892
They just want to buy shit, man.

2134
02:23:02,892 --> 02:23:03,892
They just want to buy shit.

2135
02:23:03,892 --> 02:23:11,892
No, but he's saying something else, which is I also have to point out, which is this
is similar to the lightning thing, which is that many of the people who are big
supporters of the idea.

2136
02:23:11,892 --> 02:23:17,892
It's also clear to me that they don't understand it, which puts me in a weird
situation.

2137
02:23:17,892 --> 02:23:23,892
And even there have been many times when I've been like I've been working on the
code or working with people on the code.

2138
02:23:24,892 --> 02:23:29,892
And also it's clear that we also like had like a very different understanding of
like what.

2139
02:23:30,892 --> 02:23:35,892
So I now it does put me in a kind of a strange point of view where I actually think
like.

2140
02:23:36,892 --> 02:23:38,892
It's very, very, very few.

2141
02:23:38,892 --> 02:23:42,892
There are some people who clearly do understand like the whole thing.

2142
02:23:42,892 --> 02:23:49,892
But I think the way people decide whether or not they like something is more like
it's like more about antibodies.

2143
02:23:49,892 --> 02:23:55,892
People have a thing where they think like if it helps the large blockers get what
they want, it must be bad.

2144
02:23:56,892 --> 02:24:02,892
And similarly, a lot of people who care about Drivechain, I think they understand
like.

2145
02:24:03,892 --> 02:24:05,892
These people are hypocrites.

2146
02:24:05,892 --> 02:24:06,892
They're not real critics.

2147
02:24:06,892 --> 02:24:09,892
They are just they're not real critics.

2148
02:24:10,892 --> 02:24:12,892
They are just talking for their own benefit.

2149
02:24:12,892 --> 02:24:13,892
And they don't really know.

2150
02:24:13,892 --> 02:24:14,892
They're saying yes.

2151
02:24:14,892 --> 02:24:20,892
And so but they know that the idea that Paul would spend so much time on this and
release real software.

2152
02:24:21,892 --> 02:24:23,892
It must it must be good.

2153
02:24:23,892 --> 02:24:24,892
So people have like this.

2154
02:24:25,892 --> 02:24:28,892
It's like a feedback loop with a with a thermostat in their house.

2155
02:24:29,892 --> 02:24:31,892
They detect something and they say, OK.

2156
02:24:32,892 --> 02:24:34,892
Now I know that one of these people is wrong.

2157
02:24:34,892 --> 02:24:35,892
And the other is right.

2158
02:24:35,892 --> 02:24:38,892
They look for some certain some sort of some sort of thing.

2159
02:24:39,892 --> 02:24:43,892
And but very few people have actually like very few people read the BIP.

2160
02:24:44,892 --> 02:24:45,892
Very few people download the software.

2161
02:24:47,892 --> 02:24:52,892
That's partly, you know, we should make the software easier to learn, use, but it's
relatively easier.

2162
02:24:53,892 --> 02:24:57,892
I mean, where who is who has downloaded the BIP 119 software or the 118?

2163
02:24:57,892 --> 02:24:58,892
So I like it doesn't exist.

2164
02:24:58,892 --> 02:25:03,892
So, you know, but that is similar thing with Jeremy Rubin, where it was 119.

2165
02:25:04,892 --> 02:25:05,892
And the idea is.

2166
02:25:07,892 --> 02:25:14,892
Like people just decided Jeremy really wants this change, it must be bad, but they
didn't know anything about it.

2167
02:25:15,892 --> 02:25:19,892
And even the people who are pro, they were pro for some other reason.

2168
02:25:19,892 --> 02:25:21,892
Everyone's got some kind of ulterior motive.

2169
02:25:21,892 --> 02:25:22,892
So I don't know if he had jobs.

2170
02:25:22,892 --> 02:25:25,892
This puts me in a kind of weird ethical spot because.

2171
02:25:25,892 --> 02:25:34,892
If I discover that I'm the only one who really understands the idea, then on one
hand, do I just say, well, I'll let everyone make their decisions however they
however they want to.

2172
02:25:34,892 --> 02:25:35,892
That's between them and their God.

2173
02:25:36,892 --> 02:25:40,892
However, they they take whatever risks with their because we're all of us having
perfect information.

2174
02:25:41,892 --> 02:25:42,892
But then it's kind of like.

2175
02:25:44,892 --> 02:25:46,892
But we have some new explanation stuff that should be good.

2176
02:25:47,892 --> 02:25:48,892
We're updating our website soon.

2177
02:25:48,892 --> 02:25:52,892
We're going to have lots of stuff that's going to be great, great demos and things.

2178
02:25:52,892 --> 02:25:53,892
We have more sidechains.

2179
02:25:53,892 --> 02:25:55,892
We're going to have the large block sidechain.

2180
02:25:55,892 --> 02:25:57,892
We're going to have the Namecoin sidechain.

2181
02:25:57,892 --> 02:26:00,892
We're going to have eventually the prediction market sidechain and rust.

2182
02:26:01,892 --> 02:26:04,892
We're going to have the the large block sidechain is going to have fraud proof.

2183
02:26:04,892 --> 02:26:05,892
I think people.

2184
02:26:05,892 --> 02:26:06,892
I don't know.

2185
02:26:06,892 --> 02:26:08,892
I think people don't care about this testnets.

2186
02:26:09,892 --> 02:26:13,892
I made the space chain on testnet, on signet, on Bitcoin.

2187
02:26:13,892 --> 02:26:16,892
And like you had like 10 people trying it.

2188
02:26:17,892 --> 02:26:19,892
No, it was I care deeply.

2189
02:26:19,892 --> 02:26:24,892
Like as soon as I tried all of that stuff, I was like, OK, this is not this is not
bullshit.

2190
02:26:24,892 --> 02:26:25,892
And then I start reading code.

2191
02:26:25,892 --> 02:26:28,892
I'm like, OK, this this I can understand.

2192
02:26:28,892 --> 02:26:30,892
But if you if you can read code, you're ready.

2193
02:26:31,892 --> 02:26:32,892
Yeah.

2194
02:26:32,892 --> 02:26:33,892
OK.

2195
02:26:33,892 --> 02:26:34,892
Privileged.

2196
02:26:34,892 --> 02:26:37,892
Privileged white privilege to fucking work my ass off to be able to do that.

2197
02:26:37,892 --> 02:26:38,892
Fuck off.

2198
02:26:39,892 --> 02:26:40,892
Oh, I wanted to ask another.

2199
02:26:40,892 --> 02:26:43,892
I think we should end this because I must leave.

2200
02:26:43,892 --> 02:26:50,892
But I wanted to ask how exactly Hivemind is supposed to make cheap talk expensive.

2201
02:26:51,892 --> 02:26:58,892
Is it like that you would force people to bet on their ideas?

2202
02:26:58,892 --> 02:27:00,892
Otherwise, they should shut up.

2203
02:27:00,892 --> 02:27:02,892
Or what is it?

2204
02:27:02,892 --> 02:27:05,892
OK, so it has it has a couple of meanings.

2205
02:27:05,892 --> 02:27:08,892
But basically, it's like there's an important question.

2206
02:27:09,892 --> 02:27:15,892
Like the what we vote this political party out, what will happen to the unemployment
rate or something?

2207
02:27:16,892 --> 02:27:19,892
Yeah, but there is a journalist talking about it on the television.

2208
02:27:19,892 --> 02:27:21,892
Instead of people just blah, blah, blah.

2209
02:27:21,892 --> 02:27:22,892
They're just talking about it.

2210
02:27:22,892 --> 02:27:24,892
Well, it'll be it'll literally be two numbers.

2211
02:27:24,892 --> 02:27:25,892
It'll be like, here's the numbers.

2212
02:27:25,892 --> 02:27:26,892
Here's the numbers.

2213
02:27:26,892 --> 02:27:27,892
Here's the numbers.

2214
02:27:27,892 --> 02:27:28,892
Here's the numbers.

2215
02:27:28,892 --> 02:27:29,892
Here's the numbers.

2216
02:27:29,892 --> 02:27:31,892
Well, there'll be it'll literally be two numbers.

2217
02:27:31,892 --> 02:27:35,892
It'll be like, here's the number with the red team.

2218
02:27:35,892 --> 02:27:38,892
Here's the blue team, red team, blue team, unemployment number.

2219
02:27:38,892 --> 02:27:43,892
And now if you think that number is wrong, you can make money by betting against
those numbers.

2220
02:27:43,892 --> 02:27:46,892
And you'll make money as long as you aren't wrong.

2221
02:27:46,892 --> 02:27:47,892
If you're wrong, you'll lose money.

2222
02:27:47,892 --> 02:27:50,892
But other than that, you this is a magic money tree for you.

2223
02:27:51,892 --> 02:27:54,892
The other meaning is, of course, that we have to have the Oracle work.

2224
02:27:54,892 --> 02:27:56,892
And so I have a peer to peer Oracle.

2225
02:27:56,892 --> 02:27:57,892
They also have to tell the truth.

2226
02:27:57,892 --> 02:28:03,892
But I want to explain something very important about the design, which is that this
is very easy.

2227
02:28:03,892 --> 02:28:05,892
This is something that before.

2228
02:28:05,892 --> 02:28:07,892
Imagine we bet on an election outcome.

2229
02:28:08,892 --> 02:28:09,892
I say.

2230
02:28:09,892 --> 02:28:12,892
Trump will win again in 2024.

2231
02:28:13,892 --> 02:28:14,892
And.

2232
02:28:15,892 --> 02:28:18,892
Today, this is very unclear, but this is what we do.

2233
02:28:18,892 --> 02:28:19,892
We lock it in.

2234
02:28:19,892 --> 02:28:21,892
We lock it in the betting.

2235
02:28:21,892 --> 02:28:22,892
We create the market first.

2236
02:28:22,892 --> 02:28:24,892
It's on a very defined issue.

2237
02:28:24,892 --> 02:28:25,892
And then we do the betting.

2238
02:28:25,892 --> 02:28:26,892
Now, while it's unclear.

2239
02:28:27,892 --> 02:28:32,892
The Oracle part doesn't resolve until after the election is over when it is
substantially more clear.

2240
02:28:32,892 --> 02:28:34,892
Well, of course, the last time was the.

2241
02:28:35,892 --> 02:28:39,892
Was, of course, a little bit of a snafu and it ruins my example.

2242
02:28:39,892 --> 02:28:45,892
But but mostly after the election, it's very clear who won.

2243
02:28:45,892 --> 02:28:48,892
And so that task is a completely different task.

2244
02:28:48,892 --> 02:28:53,892
So we have the contract go from before the event to after the event and we resolve
it afterwards.

2245
02:28:53,892 --> 02:28:59,892
However, since it's all on the block chain is cryptographically referencing the same
thing the whole time.

2246
02:28:59,892 --> 02:29:03,892
So we can start the betting now while it's still unclear.

2247
02:29:03,892 --> 02:29:04,892
And that is that is key.

2248
02:29:06,892 --> 02:29:07,892
But you haven't.

2249
02:29:07,892 --> 02:29:13,892
But people bet on the topic and the market price is the same for everyone.

2250
02:29:13,892 --> 02:29:14,892
Everyone has to point at the same.

2251
02:29:14,892 --> 02:29:16,892
This is exactly what Alex B was unable to do.

2252
02:29:17,892 --> 02:29:19,892
It's just make numbers that we could all point to.

2253
02:29:20,892 --> 02:29:23,892
And and so in the prediction market, it's just a number.

2254
02:29:25,892 --> 02:29:26,892
For whatever.

2255
02:29:28,892 --> 02:29:32,892
I understand that part, but I was thinking, like, how would people talk about it?

2256
02:29:33,892 --> 02:29:35,892
Because people would just stop talking about things.

2257
02:29:36,892 --> 02:29:37,892
Yes, you're right.

2258
02:29:37,892 --> 02:29:40,892
This is part of my multi-year plan is, of course, extremely complicated.

2259
02:29:40,892 --> 02:29:44,892
But but basically, I don't think it would take over on day one.

2260
02:29:45,892 --> 02:29:52,892
The prediction market world, we would want it to, like, get some hype somehow, like
through political season or whatever it is.

2261
02:29:52,892 --> 02:29:54,892
But that's not going to be enough by itself.

2262
02:29:55,892 --> 02:30:01,892
It will have to start doing other things, like predicting who will win the Super
Bowl, like weeks in advance.

2263
02:30:01,892 --> 02:30:08,892
But I was thinking, like, the political commentator on television, he will still
have his job, like he won't be fired for a while.

2264
02:30:09,892 --> 02:30:10,892
Yes, it's ecological.

2265
02:30:11,892 --> 02:30:17,892
They would for a while, but eventually it accumulates like credibility.

2266
02:30:18,892 --> 02:30:19,892
Institution accumulates credibility.

2267
02:30:19,892 --> 02:30:25,892
And you can also like the person says, they're absolutely certain that someone will
win.

2268
02:30:25,892 --> 02:30:27,892
The market is giving them four cents on the dollar.

2269
02:30:29,892 --> 02:30:36,892
People won't notice the contradiction at first, but over as the years go on and on,
people will post memes.

2270
02:30:36,892 --> 02:30:40,892
They'll say, like, the guy will be talking and they'll have like the market.

2271
02:30:40,892 --> 02:30:42,892
It'll be like, I'm absolutely certain of this.

2272
02:30:42,892 --> 02:30:43,892
And it's like the price to be like going down.

2273
02:30:44,892 --> 02:30:46,892
And it'll just people, it'll just be ridicule eventually.

2274
02:30:46,892 --> 02:30:47,892
But what if he wins?

2275
02:30:48,892 --> 02:30:49,892
There's a chance.

2276
02:30:49,892 --> 02:30:50,892
Oh, if he wins, there's a chance.

2277
02:30:50,892 --> 02:30:53,892
Well, this is this is the other problem you run into with prediction markets where.

2278
02:30:55,892 --> 02:30:58,892
Oh, my God, this is an event, something the market gives something.

2279
02:30:58,892 --> 02:31:00,892
This happened many times when we had in trade.

2280
02:31:01,892 --> 02:31:04,892
The market gave a Supreme Court decision, a thirty five percent chance of happening.

2281
02:31:06,892 --> 02:31:07,892
And it didn't happen.

2282
02:31:08,892 --> 02:31:09,892
And people said, wow, prediction markets are amazing.

2283
02:31:10,892 --> 02:31:13,892
And then a second time there was a different Supreme Court decision.

2284
02:31:13,892 --> 02:31:16,892
It gave it like a thirty five, thirty three percent chance of happening.

2285
02:31:18,892 --> 02:31:20,892
And it didn't happen.

2286
02:31:20,892 --> 02:31:22,892
And people were like, wow, prediction markets are amazing.

2287
02:31:23,892 --> 02:31:24,892
How are they doing this?

2288
02:31:25,892 --> 02:31:34,892
And then the third time the prediction market gave it about like a thirty five
percent chance of like the individual individual mandate being struck down or
something.

2289
02:31:35,892 --> 02:31:37,892
And then it was upheld that time.

2290
02:31:39,892 --> 02:31:43,892
Three out of third one out of three for the thing that's trading at about thirty
three percent.

2291
02:31:44,892 --> 02:31:47,892
Third one out of three got, quote, wrong.

2292
02:31:50,892 --> 02:31:53,892
And then people are like, you see, this proves prediction markets don't work.

2293
02:31:55,892 --> 02:31:59,892
No, I'm not saying I'm not saying it's it's it's it's a proof that prediction
markets don't work.

2294
02:32:00,892 --> 02:32:05,892
I'm saying I was trying to think like that the guy would go on television and he
would show his ticket.

2295
02:32:06,892 --> 02:32:14,892
Like I bet that I bet that this amount of money that I will win against the majority
of the market.

2296
02:32:15,892 --> 02:32:19,892
And then he would be able to choose to say whatever his bullshit is he's saying.

2297
02:32:20,892 --> 02:32:23,892
And everybody will say, oh, this guy really believes this.

2298
02:32:24,892 --> 02:32:29,892
Well, I have a beautiful presentation about this that I never got to give because it
was covid canceled the venue.

2299
02:32:29,892 --> 02:32:32,892
But but the manipulation, they have this conditional market.

2300
02:32:32,892 --> 02:32:38,892
So you bet on two things at once and you say the person will get elected and they
will the unemployment rate will go down.

2301
02:32:39,892 --> 02:32:40,892
You bet on them both simultaneously.

2302
02:32:41,892 --> 02:32:47,892
And that is not something that someone can they can they can make a huge bet that
says they can bet it all.

2303
02:32:47,892 --> 02:32:53,892
They can amass a huge amount of money and they bet that they will win and the
unemployment rate will go down.

2304
02:32:54,892 --> 02:32:57,892
It will make it look like they are going to win and the unemployment rate will go
down.

2305
02:32:58,892 --> 02:33:02,892
But unless they actually make the unemployment rate go down in the real world, they
will lose the bet.

2306
02:33:03,892 --> 02:33:06,892
So everyone can pile in on the other side of this bet and they can then elect him.

2307
02:33:07,892 --> 02:33:13,892
And then after he fails to improve society, you win the bet and you just win a
geometrically increasing amount of money.

2308
02:33:13,892 --> 02:33:17,892
And the other alternative is, of course, we elect the guy and he does make the world
a better place.

2309
02:33:18,892 --> 02:33:22,892
And he makes the unemployment rate really low, in which case that was the whole
point from the beginning.

2310
02:33:23,892 --> 02:33:24,892
So that was the whole point. So who even cares?

2311
02:33:25,892 --> 02:33:26,892
So that's the OK.

2312
02:33:27,892 --> 02:33:30,892
But yeah, the prediction market's topic is a very big topic.

2313
02:33:31,892 --> 02:33:35,892
Fiat Jeff, does that conclude your your line of questions?

2314
02:33:36,892 --> 02:33:38,892
I've got to eat my little food here. I'm going to get really hungry.

2315
02:33:39,892 --> 02:33:40,892
OK, quickly.

2316
02:33:40,892 --> 02:33:41,892
Should we wrap this up now?

2317
02:33:41,892 --> 02:33:42,892
Let's wrap it up.

2318
02:33:43,892 --> 02:33:45,892
Great, great conversation, though, guys.

2319
02:33:46,892 --> 02:33:48,892
Two people I respect greatly.

2320
02:33:49,892 --> 02:33:50,892
Respectworthy indeed.

2321
02:33:51,892 --> 02:33:52,892
Thank you very much for coming on.

2322
02:33:53,892 --> 02:33:54,892
All right, let me end this.

2323
02:34:11,892 --> 02:34:13,892
.