0:01 Hello, everyone. Welcome to the World Crypto Network, where we are streaming live from the Stanford campus. 0:07 There were some presentations, we're here at the event, 0:11 but one of the most interesting people that I really wanted to interview here is, of course, Paul Sztorc, 0:18 and I'm joined by Jimmy Song. Jimmy, say hi, and then we'll have Paul introduce himself. Hi, everybody. Good to be here. 0:24 Hi, everyone. I'm Paul. What do you want me to introduce? 0:26 Well, who you are, what you're known for, and where are you currently working? Try to keep it short. We've got a lot of questions for you. 0:33 Okay, so I got into Bitcoin a while ago. I have a background in economics and statistics, and I work on a cool 0:40 prediction markets project that was originally called Truthcoin, and is now called Bitcoin Hivemind. 0:46 But I worked, my progress on that eclipsed the practice on the progress on sidechains, 0:52 so I've been working on my sidechains project, Drivechain, for the last 0:57 I don't know, like 18 months or so, and it's... 1:00 So we basically finished that 1:02 very soon, and we'll be getting 1:04 vips out for that, and that's a very interesting project that... 1:09 And Paul, so you work at Block. Yeah, Block supports my work on Drivechain, yes. 1:15 I don't know if you know this, Tone, but the CEO of Block is actually Jeff Garzik. 1:22 I'm not sure you are aware, were you aware of that? I don't know. 1:24 Yeah, I wonder. 1:26 We were aware of that. 1:28 How many people... Tone, I don't know if you know this, but Jeff Garzik is one of the people behind 1:34 the SegWit2x project. Really? 1:38 We're slightly aware. We're slightly aware. All right, and this is why we did want to talk to you today, especially... 1:44 And the SegWit2x project is part of the New York agreement. 1:48 Yeah, well, we'll get to that. We'll get to that. Okay, so quick thing on Block, all right? 1:52 Who founded Block, where's the money coming from, and how many people are involved? 1:57 Okay, well, I mean, I don't really... So I'm just like a... I don't own any Block, like, equity or anything like that. 2:03 I'm not a co-founder, so I don't actually know that, but I... 2:06 Obviously, Matt Roszak is another co-founder. 2:09 Oh, he's a... 2:10 Sorry, we're in the wilderness. 2:12 I'm like, why are you hitting Jimmy? 2:14 Trying to get a mosquito, yeah. 2:16 There's a giant spider coming down the pass. 2:18 It's near us. 2:20 In a web of lies. 2:22 It's... So, yeah, so I know Tally Capital, and I know... What's the one, Fimbushi? 2:27 But yeah, I don't really know, like, you shouldn't really ask me because I don't even know. 2:30 I just know that I was working with people. 2:32 So who else is working at Block, like, besides yourself, that our audience might know? 2:38 Besides, obviously, Jeff Garzik, yourself, anyone else there programming, anyone else working there on cool projects that our people would have heard of in the crypto space? 2:46 I don't know what people would know. 2:48 I do know... 2:51 Yeah, Douglas Rourke. 2:53 Yeah, he used to work at Block. 2:55 Oh, he doesn't work there anymore? 2:57 Not anymore. 2:59 You guys are toughing it out. I can do it, too. 3:03 Jimmy here in short sleeves. 3:05 Alright. 3:07 Andre Schilbart works on BitcoinJ. 3:09 He's also kind of sponsored by Block. 3:11 Block does a lot of... Matt Roszak likes a lot of things. 3:15 Just likes everything. 3:17 I don't know if these people are like... 3:20 It's kind of like... 3:22 It's a little bit like a... 3:24 It's kind of like an R&D sponsorship 3:26 for some of these projects, I think. 3:28 But I don't know who... 3:30 I don't know if there's a lot of people who are, like, really famous. 3:32 Or whatever that means. 3:34 I mean, I've heard of most of these people. 3:36 Andreas is... 3:38 He's been on the dev list quite a bit. 3:40 Yeah. 3:42 Alright. 3:44 So let's... 3:46 Let's jump right into the New York agreement. 3:48 Okay. 3:50 What exactly is it? 3:52 And what are we expecting? 3:54 My number one question is, 3:56 what are we expecting in 10 days? 3:58 And we're going to talk about that. 4:00 And it's great that Jimmy is here 4:02 because maybe he can help our audience 4:04 what to do with their Bitcoin. 4:06 Are you asking me, like, what... 4:08 You want me to give, like, an overview of the... 4:10 An overview of, like, 4:12 what's the... 4:14 Why the 2X agreement? 4:17 The 2X agreement is 4:19 going to fork or upgrade 4:21 Bitcoin. 4:23 And this is the problem, right? 4:25 I don't know what to call this thing 4:27 that's going to happen in 10 days. 4:29 So help me out. 4:31 Well, I don't know what to call it either. 4:33 I mean, the thing is, I don't know... 4:35 But you work at Block. 4:37 How do you not know what to call it? 4:39 You guys are doing it. 4:41 This is what drives me insane. 4:43 Well, I don't think there's really these connections. 4:46 They just work on their own thing. 4:48 And it's similar where Peter Todd has this 4:50 stipend from Chaincode Labs. 4:52 And I think everything's really not as connected 4:54 as people think it is. 4:56 People mostly just... 4:58 I mean, especially people who have been in Bitcoin for a long time. 5:00 They can just, you know... 5:02 I don't want to speak for anyone else, 5:04 but I would imagine a large number of these people 5:06 could just quit whenever they want. 5:08 But that's because it's a pretty decentralized organization. 5:10 I don't really think of Block and this 2X agreement 5:12 as a decentralized movement. 5:14 I really see it as one developer. 5:16 Who else besides Jeff Garzik 5:18 is programming the... 5:20 Again, fork or upgrade. 5:22 Whatever you guys want to call it. 5:24 I can work with that definition. 5:26 To me, it's a fork. 5:28 To me, it's a hostile fork. 5:30 So who besides Jeff Garzik is involved 5:32 in coding the initiative? 5:34 Well, I don't know. 5:36 See, that's the thing. 5:38 I don't know a lot about... 5:40 I don't think that Jeff's involvement 5:42 is related to what he does at Block. 5:44 I think they're almost completely unrelated. 5:46 I think that's clear because he's 5:48 doing an ICO or something. 5:50 Do you know anything about that? 5:52 Block is doing an ICO at Metronome, 5:54 which I also don't know a lot about, 5:56 but I know a little about. 5:58 No, I really don't want to talk about 6:00 any other shitcoins. 6:02 What I do want to talk about is 6:04 what do I do with my Bitcoin? 6:06 I have tens of thousands of people 6:08 listening to me 6:10 what do I do on November 15th? 6:12 And my answer to them at the moment 6:14 is I don't know. 6:16 Which is bad. 6:18 No, I got to do something 6:20 because if I lose 6:22 any of my Bitcoin 6:24 because of this, 6:26 it's going to be bad. 6:28 Yeah, but you get the Bitcoin on both sides 6:30 if there's a split, which probably there will be. 6:32 Fine, then there's going to be replay protection. 6:34 You don't need 6:36 replay protection, you just need your private key. 6:38 There are ways to protect yourself 6:40 from replay without 6:42 replay protection built in. 6:44 For a layman person like myself 6:46 who hasn't coded in 10 years? 6:48 Yeah, so the wallets will have to do something. 6:50 They will have to do something? 6:52 Yeah, in order for you to be replay protected. 6:54 Okay, and what happens when your wallet 6:56 doesn't do that? 6:58 Well, I think it's actually possible 7:00 for all replay protection to be defeated. 7:02 If you want to do that, you can just make it 7:04 so that the new chain is aware 7:06 of everything that happens on the old chain 7:08 and just automatically everything that happens 7:10 on the old chain is valid no matter what. 7:12 And then at least 7:14 on that side, the replay protection 7:16 is whatever it is, it's always defeated. 7:18 So it depends on who wants 7:20 to do what. 7:22 Someone creates an altcoin where it just 7:24 constantly pulls in valid Bitcoin transactions 7:26 and replays them. 7:28 You've never heard about it and then you hear about it 7:30 and someone calls you up on the phone and says, 7:32 oh, can you send me 7:34 whatever, you know, 7:36 FooCoin3, because I paid you last week 7:38 in Bitcoin, but now apparently 7:40 there's some altcoin where you also got 7:42 my money on that and it's kind of like 7:44 you're thinking of 7:46 an attack on the 7:48 whole hardware. 7:50 So where 7:52 are you, so which 7:54 wallet are you Bitcoining 7:56 on November 15th? 7:58 I have Electrum called 8:00 Storage. I love Electrum. 8:02 Electrum is great. 8:04 I use Armoury 8:06 because I know. 8:08 Armoury is great. 8:10 Armoury is very big. 8:12 I think of Electrum, I think of like a lightsaber. 8:14 You know, it's only like 40 megabytes 8:16 without the, 8:18 you know, if you do it offline and stuff, 8:20 Armoury is a lot more, 8:22 but you can do it. 8:24 So then which 8:26 phone wallet would you recommend 8:28 for people to be using? 8:30 So this, the problem is that 8:32 SPV is 8:34 not great. Okay, so if it's 8:36 a problem, why is this should happen? 8:38 The reason 8:40 why they're not doing replay protection is 8:42 because they don't want to cut off the rest of the ecosystem. 8:44 Right? Like as soon 8:46 as you add replay protection, every wallet, 8:48 every exchange has to upgrade 8:50 as well. And that's 8:52 why Bitcoin Cash had no 8:54 wallets. But if you don't 8:56 do that, then they potentially 8:58 can still be compatible with you. 9:00 That's kind of the point. So if I'm 9:02 using a wallet, like, look, 9:04 I've been a big fan of AirBits. 9:06 Everyone knows that. I have no idea what's 9:08 going on with that wallet. 9:10 They changed their name. They even changed 9:12 their name, right? And I still don't have 9:14 SegWit addresses in that wallet. 9:16 Right? And I've been recommending that 9:18 wallet to 9:20 thousands, if not tens of thousands of people. 9:22 What happens 9:24 with my transactions 9:26 when I send them on this wallet? 9:28 It's like 9:30 if you receive money, then you want 9:32 replay, right? Because then you'll get twice as much money. 9:34 You'll get twice as much Bitcoin. 9:36 So 9:38 it's only when you send money that you're worried about. 9:40 You're worried they're going to take your... 9:42 No, I'm actually 9:44 taking this 9:46 very, very seriously. 9:48 Because I am not joking. 9:50 I am expecting a 9:52 serious Bitcoin correction. Mostly 9:54 because of this. 9:56 I agree. We have these futures markets 9:58 and they're not perfect. And I wrote on my blog 10:00 how I would do it better. 10:02 Six different assets. 10:04 I saw that. 10:06 So I have constructed criticism. 10:08 But I think 10:10 now we see that 10:12 someone right now can buy 10:14 for 15 cents on the dollar 10:16 a coin that ends up being a 2X 10:18 coin. And so 10:20 the mystery is if the 2X coin 10:22 is going to be worth 10:24 7,000 whatever dollars 10:26 today, why is that thing 10:28 so much cheaper? 10:30 Why is that trading for 15 cents on the dollar? 10:32 So I think you're right that 10:34 that coin would have to be worth 10:36 a lot less. It would be worth 10:38 closer to Bitcoin cash. 10:40 I'm still confused. 10:42 Hold on a second. I'm still confused 10:44 how there's going to be two different coins 10:46 without replay protection. 10:48 I still have not gotten a layman's answer 10:50 to that question. 10:52 You have two different coins because they're two different 10:54 chains. It just turns out that 10:56 a transaction on one chain 10:58 may also be valid on the other. 11:00 What does that mean, may also? 11:02 Because not all transactions like 11:04 Coinbase transactions, for example, are valid 11:06 on the other chain. So that ends up 11:08 being kind of a... 11:10 Why is that in both directions 11:12 you're saying? 11:14 So Coinbase to Coinbase or Coinbase 11:16 to anyone? 11:18 At a minimum. 11:20 At a minimum, Coinbase transactions are not 11:22 valid. Like Coinbase from A is 11:24 not valid on B. 11:26 And Coinbase from B is not 11:28 valid on A. 11:30 So he's saying... 11:32 Imagine a... 11:34 That's something similar to what I was saying. 11:36 He's saying imagine where all 11:38 the transactions are replayed 11:40 in all directions. You still have some 11:42 things that will be different. One would be like 11:44 the hash of the block itself 11:46 which would not... Once the blockchain 11:48 splits, then one hash of... 11:50 One header's hash will be different and then 11:52 the pre-block 11:54 or whatever we call it... 11:56 Those will all be different. 11:58 So they will not be identical in every way. 12:00 I'm trying to bring this to the average person. 12:02 Let's say 12:04 on November 19th 12:06 I want to 12:08 send you... 12:12 Well, I want to receive Bitcoin. 12:14 The regular Bitcoin. 12:16 Then that would be on me. 12:18 Right. So what do you 12:20 have to do to make sure I actually 12:22 get Bitcoin... And not the other one. 12:24 Right. And not the other one. 12:26 What's probably going to be 12:28 the safest way is 12:30 go to an exchange and withdraw 12:32 $1 worth of 12:34 normal Bitcoin. You would have to do that. 12:36 I would have to do that and I have to include that 12:38 as part of the transaction that I'm sending 12:40 to you. That doesn't make sense 12:42 to me. Why is that? 12:44 Because that's something that the other chain can't do. 12:46 Because he's got one 12:48 because he's got to have valid inputs 12:50 and valid outputs or whatever. 12:52 He's sending you money... 12:54 So if you try to replay 12:56 that transaction, it will try to select 12:58 the one Bitcoin that he 13:00 or whatever you said, $1 worth of Bitcoin. 13:02 The newer chain will 13:04 try to do that, but then that 13:06 transaction won't exist. 13:08 It's not going to work. 13:10 So if you have no money on an exchange, 13:12 now what? 13:14 Just buy $1 worth from Coinbase. 13:16 No, that's a problem. 13:18 Okay. 13:20 To anyone that 13:22 believes in the peer-to-peer 13:24 digital currency that Satoshi created, 13:26 you should not be using Bitcoin, in my opinion. 13:28 I have never in my life used 13:30 anything that connected to my real-life 13:32 identity. So I don't have the option 13:34 of grabbing $1 worth 13:36 of Bitcoin from an identifiable place. 13:38 All right. So the other way is, 13:40 hopefully, you can go to a faucet. 13:42 There will probably be some 13:44 that hands out 13:46 Bitcoins that are what you would call 13:48 tainted or unreplayable on the other chain. 13:50 And then you utilize that 13:52 to taint all your coins, and then 13:54 you can send to your heart's content. 13:56 Eric Lombroso, 13:58 should we plug... 14:00 He's starting something for this. 14:02 Make it easier. 14:04 I'm going to get Eric Lombroso on the show 14:06 done before this happens. 14:08 You have to clarify exactly what you're worried about. 14:10 Because if you're receiving money, then you want the replay 14:12 or you don't care because you're just getting money 14:14 on random things. 14:16 You could be worried on his behalf that he's accidentally 14:18 sending more than he intends. 14:20 You ask him for 4 Bitcoin, 14:22 he sends you 4 Bitcoin. But then he accidentally 14:24 sends you 4... 14:26 2x point. 14:28 I want to... 14:30 So the chain split will 14:32 probably give you a faucet where you can 14:34 take one... 14:36 So if I put all of my Bitcoin 14:38 into a single address 14:40 and then stick 14:42 $1 worth of Bitcoin 14:44 after the fork into it, 14:46 all of those coins have just become unreplayable? 14:48 So you need the 14:50 other $1 14:52 or one Satoshi, it doesn't matter, 14:54 of value that's unreplayable, 14:56 if you combine it with 14:58 that one output that 15:00 you combined it to, then yes, 15:02 it would be unreplayable. 15:04 So again, 15:06 I'm looking for solutions for our followers 15:08 how they can send Bitcoin 15:10 and not get replayed. 15:12 Or worse, the worst case scenario 15:14 is that they 15:16 sell their... 15:18 The unwanted ones. 15:20 And then realize you just lost 15:22 all of your coins. And honestly, 15:24 I want to see this... 15:26 I mean, in a way, 15:28 I want to make sure this doesn't happen to me 15:30 and I really don't... I want to make sure this 15:32 doesn't happen to my followers, but I want 15:34 it to happen to everyone else. 15:36 No, and I'm not joking, 15:38 because I want the people that are involved in this 15:40 shit to really feel 15:42 what it's like when someone that 15:44 just lost a few million dollars 15:46 is mad at them. 15:48 So here's what I would say. 15:50 I'll definitely write an article 15:52 and maybe make even 15:54 a video tutorial on how to do this 15:56 after the fork, but until 15:58 after the fork, we won't know where 16:00 exactly the faucets 16:02 will be and how 16:04 Eric Lombroso's chain split stuff will happen. 16:06 My recommendation is just 16:08 if you're worried about this, 16:10 don't transact for a few 16:12 days afterwards until these 16:14 tools become available. 16:16 I don't see that as a solution 16:18 to Bitcoin 16:20 being this thing that we all 16:22 expect it to be. 16:24 I think you're right, though, but I think that something like 16:26 I think 16:28 Jimmy Song is right that 16:30 there kind of is no solution 16:32 until we really know 16:34 more, because you don't know what kind of 16:36 replay protection 16:38 that, intentional or otherwise, 16:40 and I mean by unintentional, 16:42 I refer to this Coinbase 16:44 transaction mixing stuff or this 16:46 faucet mixing stuff, you don't know 16:48 what the optimal replay plan is 16:50 right now. 16:52 Until we try it, yeah. 16:54 There might be exchanges even that 16:56 might be giving out some of these faucet coins 16:58 just to help people 17:00 because that's something that they're not going to 17:02 want to deal with. 17:04 Again, I'm going back to the layman's terms 17:06 because this is important to me. So if I put 17:08 all of my Bitcoin into one address 17:10 which is 17:12 a horrible thing 17:14 to do for OPSEC purposes, 17:16 but this is what Jeff Garzik is forcing 17:18 us to do, sounds like 17:20 to me. Put all of your Bitcoin 17:22 into one private key, don't 17:24 screw that up. 17:26 After that, you find a 17:28 faucet that you trust, I would go 17:30 with Eric Lombroso and I'll make 17:32 sure I'll get him on video for this. 17:34 You stick, 17:36 somehow, get 17:38 a Satoshi worth of Bitcoin 17:40 into that 17:42 same private key 17:44 along with your X number of 17:46 Bitcoins. Wait, so tell me, I think 17:48 maybe a concept that might be 17:50 helpful is sort of like tainting your 17:52 coins. So once 17:54 one of 17:56 your coins, you don't 17:58 actually have coins, right? Like you have UTXOs 18:00 or whatever. 18:02 Not developers. 18:04 We don't have developers guys. 18:06 Like Mark Bills or something like that. 18:08 I just want to say something though, which is that you can make it 18:10 really, really simple by just totally ignoring 18:12 No, you can't. 18:14 Because all you have to do, what you're describing 18:16 is only possible if you want to cash out 18:18 and sell the unwanted coins. 18:20 No, no, no. This is where I take 18:22 offense. 18:24 Because right now, 18:26 my life 18:28 is fighting shitcoiners. 18:30 And if your solution is don't 18:32 do anything, I am supporting 18:34 shitcoins because they're transactional. 18:36 You can say I don't support this. 18:38 Don't do anything is not a solution. 18:40 Doing something immediately 18:42 that allows you to spend 18:44 without worry is a solution. 18:46 And I want to bring that solution to every one of my 18:48 followers so they can do something 18:50 immediately and not have to worry 18:52 about losing their bitcoin. 18:54 Okay, but here's the thing. 18:56 If, hypothetically, 19:00 if you just were to ignore 19:02 say the unwanted coins, the 2x 19:04 coin, I'm just guessing here for you that 19:06 you want to ignore the 19:08 2x coin, you can just 19:10 transact in the other coin and it will not affect you. 19:12 You will never be affected 19:14 by a replay. 19:16 Maybe a theoretical solution, not a 19:18 real one. As much as I 19:20 try to ignore 19:22 the trash garbage, it's 19:24 all over my life right now. 19:26 As much as I try to 19:28 ignore it, 19:30 it's not ignorable. 19:32 And I kind of like the idea of making 10% 19:34 on all my bitcoin. 19:36 I would love the ability to make 19:38 another 10 or 20% 19:40 on all my bitcoin without the possibility 19:42 of total loss of my bitcoin. 19:44 Which is why I have you on here. 19:46 We're getting this thing, it's winding a lot. 19:48 Because you're saying on one hand you want it really simple 19:50 for people who aren't developers and you're just worried 19:52 about them losing money. 19:54 The simplest thing is that they just 19:56 don't install 2x, don't 19:58 look at it, and just only use the 20:00 software you're already using. And you will be. 20:02 And then, I don't know, 20:04 the exchanges might do something weird. 20:06 Don't put your money on an exchange for like two weeks. 20:08 Let me tell you the reality of the situation. 20:10 The reality of the situation is people are greedy. 20:12 During our epic 20:14 August 1st, 8-hour 20:16 live stream, when Bcash 20:18 was forking, I pleaded 20:20 with people not to jump 20:22 in and convert 20:24 and sell their Bcash immediately 20:26 for the chance of losing your 20:28 bitcoin. You know what happened during that 20:30 day? Somebody accidentally 20:32 sent me all of his bitcoin. 20:34 By accident. 20:36 His bitcoin or his Bcash? His bitcoin. 20:38 Trying to split his bitcoin. 20:40 He accidentally sent it to me. 20:42 The guy was screaming. 20:44 Because there was replay protection in Bcash. 20:46 So it didn't really matter. 20:48 No. By being an idiot. 20:50 I mean, I don't know. We can't protect 20:52 people from that. 20:54 If you've got a way of protecting people from their own idiocy. 20:56 We'll have a Nobel Prize. 20:58 The best thing I can do is 21:00 provide them the maximum amount of 21:02 information for them not to screw up. 21:04 That's what I'm trying to do. I'm just saying you don't have to do anything. 21:06 If you want to play 21:08 at very low effort 21:10 and you're just worried about the new one 21:12 then you could just say 21:14 I surrender all this new 21:16 one. I'm just not going to think about it. 21:18 When I send money it'll probably be replayed. 21:20 And if you're greedy 21:22 you would put it on Bitfinex right now. 21:24 Sell the other part and just get 21:26 your bitcoin. 21:28 Bitfinex is a bad example. 21:30 They're not taking regular people 21:32 as clients anymore. 21:34 Some other place. 21:36 I still want to get back to the idea. 21:38 I have all of my bitcoin. I put 21:40 all my bitcoin in one address. 21:42 I then go to a 21:44 faucet. Again, plug to Eric Lombroso. 21:46 You need to get one pure. 21:48 Grab a Satoshi. 21:50 One tainted coin. 21:52 Tainted of what do you mean by... 21:54 It's entangled with one chain only. 21:56 Yeah, so it's unreplayable. 21:58 A coin that's unreplayable. 22:00 A coin that's unreplayable and I add it 22:02 to my stash of bitcoin. 22:04 And spend all of it at once. 22:06 And then move all of that 22:08 move all of that bitcoin 22:10 to another address. 22:12 And then you're good forever. 22:14 And then the private key, before I move it 22:16 once I move it, I use that private key 22:18 with no bitcoin on it 22:20 to split my Bcash out. 22:22 What's my Bcash? 22:24 The 2x coin is now in comfort to that key. 22:26 So after I 22:28 taint them 22:30 after I taint them to make them unreplayable 22:32 I can still pull out all of my 22:34 2x coins. 22:36 After you've split them, you've essentially split them 22:38 by spending it to another address with a 22:40 unreplayable coin. 22:44 I'm trying to be 22:46 I'm trying to be 22:48 as stupid as possible so you guys can explain it to everyone 22:50 including myself. 22:52 Once I put all of my bitcoin 22:54 into one address 22:56 I taint it with 22:58 an unreplayable satoshi 23:00 I move that coin 23:02 that private key still contains 23:04 all of the B2X. 23:06 So then I can take them to another 23:08 wallet that's a B2X wallet 23:10 What do I do? How do I sell that? 23:12 That we don't know yet. 23:14 You need to find a wallet 23:16 that supports 2x 23:18 and you need an exchange that supports 2x 23:20 but that's no different from any other. 23:22 And we don't know which ones will support it 23:24 because those wallet developers 23:26 haven't really done their stuff yet. 23:28 So that you won't know until the quarter. 23:30 It's possible that no one will support it. 23:32 I don't think so but it's possible. 23:34 I doubt it. 23:36 Somebody's going to support it. 23:38 Coinbase will support 2x. 23:40 So I now understand what to do 23:42 in order to make sure 23:44 that I don't lose any bitcoin 23:46 trying to sell the B2X. 23:48 Hopefully our followers understood this. 23:50 I also wrote an article 23:52 on this and 23:54 there are going to be solutions 23:56 and people are careful with their money 23:58 in general so they will 24:00 have video tutorials and stuff 24:02 step by step 24:04 somebody's going to make a wallet 24:06 and then they'll say here's step one 24:08 here's the screen that you need to click 24:10 It might even be like a plugin 24:12 for Bitcoin Core 24:14 or something 24:16 Speaking of Bitcoin Core 24:18 Speaking of Bitcoin Core 24:20 I heard that the version 15 24:22 was not going to 24:24 block 24:26 the B2X stuff. 24:28 What does that mean and what's the latest on that? 24:30 Should I move all 24:32 of my bitcoin to a core node? 24:34 All that's 24:36 doing is if you have a full node 24:38 it would 24:40 pre-ban 24:42 all the 2x nodes from 24:44 connecting to it. 24:46 That's really all it was. 24:48 Is that working? 24:50 There's something like a cat and mouse 24:52 game where a lot of the 2x people 24:54 were like well okay then we'll just change 24:56 this other thing so you can't 24:58 detect that it's a 2x. 25:00 Who cares? It'll resolve itself and you might be isolated. Just reconnect and you're fine. 25:07 That's what they call cheap talk in the game theory department. All the stuff that says it's a 2x node will ban. 25:13 All the node stuff is not really auditable. It is a cat and mouse that will just never end and it will just waste everyone's time. 25:23 What's the end goal here? What is the point of the B2X part? 25:29 I don't know what the hell to call this thing 2x. Just call it 2x. 25:33 What is the point? What is their end goal here? 25:36 You know what it is, John. It's spelled out very clearly in the Medium article. They wanted to get SegWit activated. 25:45 I know that part, but the bigger blocks. 25:50 They wanted to increase the non-witness block size to 2 megabytes. That's what they thought was best. 25:59 A compromise is always better than immediate violence, but it's never going to be the best. 26:05 Somewhere there is the right answer and it's not a compromise between different things. It's just the right answer. 26:11 We kind of don't know what it is, but the futures markets say that 2x will not be worth as much as 1x. 26:17 That's something that's interesting to me. I think I'm in favor of building even better futures markets so that we can be even more persuasive to everyone. 26:26 You could perhaps show miners how much money they would gain or lose by doing a certain thing. 26:32 I think that would be the most persuasive evidence of all because how can you be in a corporation like Bitmain, 26:37 for example, just to name one completely at random. 26:42 How can you be in a corporation and then take an action that will very clearly result in revenue loss? 26:50 The futures markets that I designed would allow you to take lots of different things into account. 26:56 It's not that much more complicated. You would be able to see if the 1x network died and the 2x network was the only thing that existed, 27:04 what would be the price or the reverse. If the 2x network was called off and we never did it, what would the 1x network be worth? 27:13 What's more persuasive than that? 27:16 Paul, we got a question from an audience. 27:19 It says, ask Paul Sztorc what he thinks about Todd's Discrete Oracle stuff presentation. 27:31 That was actually one of the few presentations that I was able to fully follow. 27:35 Discrete lock contracts? Really? That's the one? 27:39 I think this other guy is also named Paul. I think he got me on Twitter and I quoted him and replied. 27:44 I did a whole talk. You can find the video. I just tweeted about it very recently, like today, like two hours ago or something. 27:53 But you can also find it if you go to bitcoinhivemind.com. 27:57 If you go to presentations, you can find my presentation, which is called the Oracle Problems. 28:02 I did a whole QCon talk about presentations, but basically one big concern of mine about his thing, 28:08 he starts the presentation off by saying that multi-sig isn't very good. 28:12 And then his presentation is like on a marginal improvement to multi-sig, 28:17 which is basically like the Oracle doesn't know who they're multi-sigging for or if anyone is even using their thing. 28:24 Oh, and they can't say different answers. 28:27 And they can't say different answers to different people, which is nice. 28:30 But yeah, I worry that the improvement is not very significant to the point where I don't think it would significantly advance. 28:40 Yeah, you can still collude. 28:42 One thing is that the person may exit scam, which is a big problem with anything related to reputation. 28:49 The person may acquire a good reputation and then they may decide that the best way to use it is to, 28:54 that the Oracle could themselves become a counterparty. 28:57 So trading with all these different people. 28:59 And then now that they've, they're not only the Oracle, but they're also Bob, the Alice and Bob thing. 29:05 And now they are screwed and they just withdraw all the money. 29:08 And the exit scam is a big issue in all Oracle-based everything. 29:13 In fact, you want to take steps to allow people to kind of get rid of a good, sell a good reputation and get rid of it. 29:19 Otherwise you'll have this. 29:21 It'll be like the fiat exchanges really, where something like Mt. Gox. 29:25 Exactly. Mt. Gox will acquire a reputation for being the best and the biggest. 29:29 And then more people will want to go there and then it explodes inevitably because you've got possible deniability and stuff to cash out the reputation in the worst way. 29:37 And then it goes to another exchange is the biggest and then it gets targeted by whatever. 29:42 You're waiting for a Coinbase exit scam. Is that what it is? 29:44 Yeah. Well, you have this, it's kind of like an asteroid orbiting the sun. 29:49 That's how I sometimes explain where you have this like weird equilibrium of just stuff is the biggest. 29:54 And then you have a period of peace and tranquility for a while. 29:56 And then the Roman empire collapses and it's horrible again. 29:59 Then it cycles. And so you don't, you want something that's like undoes the exit scam problem, which doesn't have. 30:06 And I think, so I think it kind of regresses to the multi-sig case, which he himself points out in the early, why it's not the multi-sig case. 30:12 So, but I think it's, I think that in particular, his thing is very interesting and they're probably used for something. 30:18 Just because a lot of the other stuff is very cool about it being off chain lightning network, fully net lightning network, like integrated. 30:24 And also you, you can't sign in more, you can't give different answers. 30:28 I really like that aspect of it. 30:30 That aspect of it might be used for like something totally different than just like committing to some random numbers. 30:35 Let's jump, let's jump back into that 2x discussion. 30:39 What are you expecting from the mining side? 30:42 What is your outlook for mining percentage, mining one coin versus another? 30:48 And what does this do to the other hard fork we already had, which is the cash? 30:53 Okay, that's a good, those are good questions. 30:56 So yeah, these are just my guesses. 30:58 I don't really like know any of this at all. 31:00 So just ignore it all. 31:02 But let's think about this. 31:04 We had 83%, or at least it said it did. 31:08 And there's no kind of reason to believe that it's not, it wasn't correct at the time. 31:12 Just signaling, just signaling. 31:14 That's so cool. 31:16 And some people have said that they will let, like Slush always does the right thing, which is to say that it's not my job to decide, which is the correct answer. 31:26 So we have some kind of vague. 31:29 So I'm not sure, someone estimated it was like 70 something percent, 71 or 72 or something. 31:34 But still like saying, and again, this is all cheap talk, as I mentioned before, which is like, you don't know exactly what it's worth. 31:42 But we did have, we have those kind of numbers. 31:46 And my guess is that it would just be too embarrassing if they bailed like very quickly. 31:52 Very quickly. 31:53 So even in the case where they bail, right? 31:55 So let's say like we kind of do the extremes maybe. 31:58 And even in the case where they all bail on, and they never, none of the miners even wanted the two megabyte. 32:03 And they only wanted SegWit, but there was just a giant pretext that was required for political reasons. 32:08 So even if you take that extreme, probably there'll be like one or two days where 70% mines the 2X coin. 32:14 That's kind of my thinking on that. 32:16 The other extreme is that all the miners actually did want, they are pissed off. 32:20 And they do want to send a message. 32:23 And it's worth it for them. 32:25 And actually even more of the, you saw a lot of people pretend not to like, even Bitfury is angry or something. 32:30 But they just didn't want to say that they were angry. 32:33 Angry at which part? 32:35 At the dev leadership. 32:37 At the dev leadership. Okay, fine. 32:39 Let's go deeper on that. 32:42 Let's go deeper on that. 32:44 I have an article coming out. 32:47 I did some analysis on this. 32:52 It will be published on Monday. 32:54 But the forking block, it turns out, is about 865 blocks into a difficulty period. 33:01 So there's exactly 1,152 blocks that need to be mined before the difficulty adjusts on both sides. 33:08 That's actually pretty fortunate because it kind of almost cuts it in half. 33:10 Yeah, that's about the most fortunate that you can be. 33:12 If they were smart, they should have done it 2x if they wanted to be strategic about killing the old chain, which they should have. 33:19 But it turns out it's about halfway through. 33:23 Okay, so that's good to know. 33:25 And it turns out that, well, so I did some calculations based on sort of like the last few months of signaling based on blocks. 33:35 The ones that said NYA, it's been fluctuating between 85 and 95. 33:39 So I just cut it off at 90. 33:40 And then I took the futures market. 33:43 It's about 0.17, 2x coin per 1x coin, like if you do the split and everything else. 33:49 And I did some calculations on how much opportunity cost there is. 33:53 And it turns out that over the first 1,152 blocks, it turns out to be about $60 million. 34:00 And it goes up until about February 3rd. 34:03 But after that, the next five weeks, it ends up costing about $600 million in opportunity costs. 34:11 If those ratios stay the same. 34:14 What are your ratios though? 34:16 What's your starting ratio? 34:18 70-30? What's your ratio? 34:20 90-10. 34:22 90 going to 2x? 34:24 Yeah, and this is just purely based on objective data, just like what they're signaling in the blocks. 34:28 90 going to 2x. 34:30 So you're saying mining the old chain is going to become useless. 34:33 No, you're saying how much does it cost? 34:35 I think if I'm understanding you correctly, you're saying this is how much does the miner's bottom line get hit by adhering to this 2x? 34:44 So they're losing $60 million over a period of about four months. 34:48 And then the next month, they lose something like $600 million collectively. 34:52 And then it gets crazy because the amount of money that you start losing because 1x is so much easier to mine. 35:03 And if they're sticking with 2x, it just becomes economically completely irrational without a state actor or something subsidizing that side. 35:13 So yeah, my feeling is that's not a sustainable – something has to get – 35:17 It will change, right? 35:19 The scenario that obviously the 2x side would aim for would be that the 1x side loses hope and everyone rushes into 2x and the 2x coin is worth $7,000. 35:31 So one of two things has to change, right? 35:34 You have mining power split, 90-10 is what I'm assuming, and you have price split, which is like 0.17 to 1 or whatever. 35:42 One of those three things have to change. 35:44 Either price has to follow hash power or hash power has to follow price. 35:49 One or the other has to happen. 35:52 And we don't know which. 35:54 The third thing is that some group arbitrarily decides to lose money. 35:58 So the other option there – 36:01 We do know those people exist from the decash experiment. 36:04 So it's possible that you have people that are pumping in money or pumping in hash power. 36:09 One or the other has to happen, right? 36:11 It could be external or internal. 36:14 It's easier to pump in hash power. 36:16 You have to pump in a lot. 36:18 If you want to keep a fake price and meanwhile all these bloodthirsty traders, battle-hardened traders are like no and you want to keep that going for days on end, 24-7, you need a lot of money. 36:29 And meanwhile there's a lot of despair. 36:31 I want to get back to – 36:33 The hash rate would be easier. 36:35 I want to get back to what you said. 36:36 If miners are angry at the core and they want to get at them, they're going to jump to the 2X side to teach core a lesson. 36:44 I want to explore that. 36:46 I want to go deeper with that. 36:48 Let's take that extreme to its ultimate conclusion. 36:53 80-90% of hash power goes to the 2X side of the chain. 36:59 And it stays there making the original Bitcoin kind of immovable for a long period of time. 37:16 And that actually stays there. 37:18 And all of our current core developers, they say screw it. 37:22 I'll go work for Goldman Sachs and make more money than I do now. 37:25 And all we have is Jeff Garzik and maybe Andrew Stone and Peter R coding on the new chain. 37:33 What do you think will happen to the confidence of the price of Bitcoin in your opinion? 37:37 I don't know about any of that. 37:39 I don't know about untangling all that. 37:41 The futures markets already give us a lot of information about that. 37:45 They try to aggregate everything. 37:47 So everything you said and everything else that anyone else thinks. 37:51 Which is why I'm not expecting any of it. 37:52 Yeah, I don't think that's going to be the case. 37:55 But the way you really teach a lesson is to attack. 37:59 And that's the one possibility I think that we have to think about. 38:03 Well, that's the thing. 38:05 See my view on it is none of these attackers have actually learned a lesson. 38:08 Which is why I want to provide very clear directions to all of our followers here on the World Crypto Network and on my channel. 38:17 How do you paint the coins to make sure your Bitcoin is not replayable when you sell off your 2X. 38:27 And I really hope some big whales lose like 10 million dollars. 38:34 But still have like another 10 or 20 million dollars to seriously go after the people that are causing this for them. 38:41 I don't know if you can solve it with money per se. 38:44 But I think the market will work itself out. 38:47 And the people that learn the lesson will be the people that bet wrong. 38:51 That's just how it is. 38:53 Certainly you could make the argument that this whole thing is just embarrassing for Bitcoin. 38:59 And it just makes everything look unorganized and crazy. 39:02 And that's almost the worst thing you can say about it really. 39:07 Stuff about replay protection is I think really overblown. 39:14 There's a lot of angels against the tide of evil. 39:19 It's very sanctimonious. 39:21 I'm not sure how to describe it. 39:23 If something doesn't have replay protection, it's the worst thing ever. 39:29 And those people are just the worst. 39:31 It only does affect you if you want to cash out on the second thing. 39:34 So by giving it, it's kind of a concession. 39:37 Letting people freely cash out of your altcoin thing. 39:42 I think we need to immunize against it anyway. 39:45 And I think Bitcoin will be better for it. 39:47 I want wallets to have all these features. 39:49 I love that. 39:51 And I think it will protect us going forward. 39:53 Because 2018, we're going to see a lot more hard forks. 39:56 Well, I'm done with my questions. 39:58 I don't know if you have anything else, Jimmy. 40:00 Let's go eat, man. 40:02 I'm hungry. 40:04 We will bring you more details on how to deal with this fork. 40:09 That's coming in about 10 days. 40:11 I'll keep trying to ask the right questions. 40:13 Because I want to make sure I hold on to my Bitcoin as well. 40:16 During this mess. 40:18 And we'll talk about price in another video. 40:20 All right, guys. 40:22 And Jimmy and I will do a recap of this event. 40:24 How it will be tomorrow. 40:26 We'll see. We'll figure it out. 40:28 Talk to you all later. 40:30 Thank you for watching. 40:32 We closed off with about 600 viewers. 40:34 Thank you.